C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

while gbpusd was good entry today small supply zone h4 but engulf m30 ..why u didnt take that trade c12 ?

For EU, look on H4. Price was just about to touch H4 supply and then dropped like a stone (H1/M30/M15).

Also check DX Daily. Right into a demand zone. I think GU PA was very untidy.

Right now it looks like EU is worth shorting on pullbacks to LTF zones and engulfing PA over the next few days.

Also I get a feeling that both EU and GU are going to begin accelerating to the downside soon.

It might be tricky to get in (with zones). Engulfing PA on an intra-day basis will be a great tool to use when things start trending fast.

A good idea to be holding and running some of these positions as well. Of course it's best to play the PA and not the bias so we'll see.

The thing i love about freestyle trading is the market is always changing and you can adapt with it, rather than relying on some fixed rules 'system' that gets smashed to pieces in certain conditions.

you think we may see the 1.13960 area before we get an engulfing PA to go short?

There's a M30/M15 zone just up above there I'd like to see a pullback to add some more shorts. Looking for the open tomorrow to see where things are.

[quote=C-12;11717768]{quote} There's a M30/M15 zone just up above there I'd like to see a pullback to add some more shorts. Looking for the open tomorrow to see where things are.[/quo



waiting h4 close 5min left,,how is look eurcad c-12?

[quote = C-12; 11717532] {quote} Đối với EU, hãy nhìn vào H4. Giá đã được chỉ là về để liên lạc cung cấp H4 và sau đó giảm xuống như một hòn đá (H1 / M30 / M15). Ngoài ra kiểm tra DX hàng ngày. Phải vào khu vực nhu cầu. Tôi nghĩ rằng GU PA là rất lộn xộn. Ngay bây giờ có vẻ như EU có giá trị shorting trên pullbacks để LTF khu và nhấn chìm PA trong vài ngày tới. [/Trích dẫn]

hi Sir C-12
EUR/USD: daily trend down, H4 trend down, M30 trend down
M30:
entry 1: engulfing, supply fresh: lost -22 pip
entry2: engulfing, supply fresh: lost - 22 pip
Can you explain why I lost?
thanks you veru much

I took the same losses as you did and I got shaken out of my upper short.

Shitty day I guess..

Managed to get back on the short train so lets see if we can get a better run out of it.

The PA we saw in today's session can make seasoned veterans looks like complete fools.

very hard to find good setup c-12

You get days like this a couple of times per month.

Sometimes it's best to look at the calendar and decide to go do something else.

Hi there, in my opinion it depends on how you see trend. Here are my 2 cents on this setup.

I see trend as rising or falling swing lows and highs.
Now there are 2 different ways on how you can view that.

1. You only use the “main” swing legs, in which the upward movement into the M30 Supply level was a pullback during a down-trend.
   
   Attached Image (click to enlarge)

   
   
2. Or you look at every new swing high/low individually, in which case we were in an up-trend, since we had multiple higher highs and lows as well as closed above the last swing high, moving into this m30 Supply level.
   
   Attached Image (click to enlarge)

   
   

If you tend to read trend like in the second example, then we are in an up-trend and therefor I like to get a fresh supply level in a lower timeframe like M15 or M5 as confirmation to get short at. We got a very nice M5 level that dropped straight to the next m30 Demand level and since we were still in an up-trend on M30, could immediately take a long there as a limit order since the level was so small.

There are hundreds of ways you can trade these kinds of setups. Playing around with entry reasons and what not like placing a limit order at the Supply/Demand level if its kind a small or wait for engulfing’s, inside-bars, 2/3-bar reversal’s, Harami, inside/outside bars etc.

Those could occur in the same trend/supply/demand-timeframe, or on a lower timeframe, depending on other conditions/filters.

You could for example take straight candle setups like engulfing’s on M30 in a M30 Supply level when M30 is also in a downtrend or, like in my example, wait for a lower timeframe Supply level inside the higher timeframe Supply level, if M30 is not in a down-trend when moving into the Supply level.
Or not only wait for a lower timeframe Supply level but also taking engulfing’s in lower timeframes etc.

The possibilities are endless and come down to personal preference, which everyone has to do his homework on.
I hope this point of view helped you a bit, since for me this day in EURUSD was a very profitable one.

thank you my friends best time frame 30min chart?
my example righ?

How about this one. Not caught one of these in a while.

Good analysis and yes there were plenty of scalp opportunities in today's session.

Unfortunately I was at work so I was stuck with my 2 shorts on the open that went 30 pips in positive and then got thrashed and hit my stop.

Hi C12, this was a painful miss for me....I had my pending order sitting on the h1....I got front run on this by just 2pips......

thank you buddy

I don't think there is a "best" timeframe. Also no "right" or "wrong". You are "right" if you are consistently profitable with your approach.

Go through the charts and backtest different approaches/strategies. For example, if the main strategy is trading off Supply/Demand levels, there can be hundreds of different approaches in terms of reasons for entry at those levels, stop placement, target placement etc.
Like do you have a fixed pip target for your trades? Do you hold them to the closest demand level in the m5, m30, h4, d1?
Is it dependent on which timeframe you entered at? Do you hold off parts of the position to higher timeframe targets?

This takes a lot of time and hard work, but it's the work everyone has to do.

In terms of timeframes, higher timeframes tend to be more "accurate", meaning you generally get higher hit rates (% of total trades you win) but lower frequency.
I wouldn't really go higher then daily since your frequency comes down to <10 trades per year in weakly and higher. Most commonly used timeframes are h4, h1, m30, m15 and m5. You can trade each timeframe on its own or use a multi-timeframe approach.

m30 is indeed a nice sweet spot between accuracy of signals and frequency. Just keep in mind that you might have to adjust your risk up or down depending on the timeframe you use. You might have 3 trades per week in m30 with an average risk-reward-ratio of 3:1, winning 2 and losing 1 (~66% hit rate).
If you risk 0,5% per trade on a 10.000 account for example, you would win 2 times for 50 x 3 = 150 x 2 = 300, and lose one for 50. Leaving you with 300 - 50 = 250$ profit that week and a realized equity drawdown of 0,5% during that time.

If you trade the same setup in m15 you might have 8 trades that week but lose 4 of them (50% hit rate), but since you take entry's on a smaller timeframe, you normally have higher risk reward to the same target since your enter earlier then on m30 and have smaller stops. So lets say you get average 5:1 RR on m15, you win 4 trades: 50 x 5 = 250 x 4 = 1000 and lose 4 trades: 50 x 4 = 200, leaving you with 1000 - 200 = 800$ profit that week but also a 4x higher drawdown of 2% instead of 0,5%!

Now this makes sense since your hit rate goes down on smaller time frames, but you could half the risk to 0,25% per trade and still end up with 400$ over 250$ with a drawdown of 1%. Now this comes down to personal preference if you would take the higher risk for higher reward. But you could also double the risk on the m30 trades and make 250 x 2 = 500$ over the 400$ on m15 now also with 1% drawdown. So in this case, this specific setup might be better to trade on the m30 then the m15 unless the hit rate comes up on the lower timeframe (if you would win 5 out of 8 it would be more profitable then the m30).

One week or just a few trades is obviously no adequate sample size, so you would have to go through the charts and test this setup (which takes a lot of time).
The general number floating around is 500 setups or 5 years of backtesting to get reliable data.
You might find out that over the long run the hit rate for this setup in m15 is indeed closer to winning 5 out of 8 instead of 4 and would therefor be more profitable to trade then on m30.

Then you take that approach and forward test it / demo trade it and get in that sweet screen time until you see those lines and patterns in your sleep.

Therefor I can't say if your example is right but I can see that you already implemented the basic principles of a trend approach in your own way and used it as additional confirmation in combination with engulfing's from a demand level like C-12 likes to take them. So the engulfing candle not only served as an entry reason for the demand level but also confirmed the up-trend as it broke and closed above the last swing high.

Definitely a nice approach and worth putting in some time to backtest different pairs over the last couple of month and years and see how this approach would have performed in the long run

Nicely done, you learn quick. Literally the same setup as yesterday.
Would have taken targets above 1.77500 since the next m30, h4 or d1 Supply is still so far away but we just hit another m30 demand so maybe we can get some more out of this GBPAUD day

Its about the simplicity of trading...!
EurUsd Entering parameters

Result

#When a strong level is broken with strong momentum, it is respected again but in opposite.
Example is in GBPCAD. Placed a Sell limit. (I used a conservative SL, It can be placed just above pink box)

Result