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Simple H4 Mobile Trading System

  • #1,321
  • Nov 18, 2018 9:08am Nov 18, 2018 9:08am
Quoting obiwandax
hi Josephkee, Is it worth describing the trades in terms of pips made in the 6 month test period? Because win/lose is meaningless unless understood in terms of potential money that can be made or lost and the risk to reward on each trade.
Risk to reward is always 1:1
We're not here to be right, we're here to Profit Consistently!
  • #1,322
  • Nov 18, 2018 11:04am Nov 18, 2018 11:04am
Have been reading this thread with interest so thought I would also do a test.

Done 2 tests one with GBP/USD and the other USD/JPY
Date: 1st May - today
Starting bank: 100
Lot size: 0.01

Setup: engulfing bar + confirmation candle
SL: always behind the engulfing bar
TP: 1:1

Set and forget every trade, no trades moved to break even or closed early.


USD/JPY
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GBP/USD
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  • #1,323
  • Nov 18, 2018 4:24pm Nov 18, 2018 4:24pm
just manually back tested 6 months of data - from the 1st of this year to the end of june on GBPNZD following the original strategy
48 trades total
32 wins
16 losses
approx. 66% win rate with a total net gain of 880 pips.
  • #1,324
  • Nov 18, 2018 5:43pm Nov 18, 2018 5:43pm
Quoting ste1878
Have been reading this thread with interest so thought I would also do a test. Done 2 tests one with GBP/USD and the other USD/JPY Date: 1st May - today Starting bank: 100 Lot size: 0.01 Setup: engulfing bar + confirmation candle SL: always behind the engulfing bar TP: 1:1 Set and forget every trade, no trades moved to break even or closed early. USD/JPY {image} GBP/USD {image}
Thanks ste1878

How do you interpret your finding? Is it good or bad? Since R:R is 1:1 can you let us know how many winners and how many losers. From the chart, I cannot tell as I am not familiar with this.
  • #1,325
  • Nov 18, 2018 6:47pm Nov 18, 2018 6:47pm
Quoting ranilo.vince
{quote} Great results as well.. Does all of these trades were exitted on 200% fibo or some are at 150% or manual close?
TP1 150%, I exited early some pairs because they don’t confluent with Daily TF. Thanks
  • #1,326
  • Nov 18, 2018 7:21pm Nov 18, 2018 7:21pm
GBPNZD 2018
83 trades
53 wins
30 losses
64% win rate
total pips = 1493

-Manually Back tested 1 bar at a time
-Didnt take trades with a stop loss of +100 pips and also didn't add additional positions if a trade was already active, which if you wanted to would have bumped up the pip count quite a bit. But apart from that i used the original strategy posted by hzs10 ....
-engulfing above 30ema buy, engulfing below 30ema sell,
-SL 5 pips below signal candle, TP at fib level 200
-SL moved to fib level 1 once price touched fib level 1.5

Note: adding major Support and resistance would have filtered out some of the losers but you'd also miss some winners.

Will be doing the rest of the pairs eventually for myself but if people are interested and want my stats uploaded i can do that.
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  • #1,327
  • Nov 18, 2018 9:35pm Nov 18, 2018 9:35pm
Quoting Trinquete
{quote} Hi Ahgang, you dont put fibo in the right spot in the loosing trades, you must yo take 0 and 100 level in the same candle that start everithing (the engulfing candle).
Hello Mate

I note that too. But if the confirmation bar is large,our RR will less than 1:1 if TP calculate base on engulfing but not confirmation, it will cause our RR become risky. Thats why i always prefer 1:1.

I will proceed some pair with Josephkee technic, this round will calculate base on pip instead of just win lose. Its to eliminate small win big lose in term if pip.
  • #1,328
  • Nov 18, 2018 10:38pm Nov 18, 2018 10:38pm
Quoting ahgang
{quote} Hello Mate I note that too. But if the confirmation bar is large,our RR will less than 1:1 if TP calculate base on engulfing but not confirmation, it will cause our RR become risky. Thats why i always prefer 1:1. I will proceed some pair with Josephkee technic, this round will calculate base on pip instead of just win lose. Its to eliminate small win big lose in term if pip.
Hi Ahgang
if you look at your chart you posted, the first lost trade would have tp at fibo 200 if your fibo was correctly drawn. Your 100 fibo seems to be on top of another bar next to the engulfing. thanks
  • #1,329
  • Nov 18, 2018 10:43pm Nov 18, 2018 10:43pm
Quoting fxlrich
GBPNZD 2018 83 trades 53 wins 30 losses 64% win rate total pips = 1493 -Manually Back tested 1 bar at a time -Didnt take trades with a stop loss of +100 pips and also didn't add additional positions if a trade was already active, which if you wanted to would have bumped up the pip count quite a bit. But apart from that i used the original strategy posted by hzs10 .... -engulfing above 30ema buy, engulfing below 30ema sell, -SL 5 pips below signal candle, TP at fib level 200 -SL moved to fib level 1 once price touched fib level 1.5 Note: adding major...
thanks fxIrich

GBPNZD seems not a very good pair. I counted May 1 to Nov 18

RE

ULT

S

TOTAL TRADES : 36
WIN 26
LOSS 10

ABOUT 62% WIN PROBABILITY. THE REST HOVER AROUND 70 TO 80%
  • #1,330
  • Nov 18, 2018 11:17pm Nov 18, 2018 11:17pm
Quoting josephkee
{quote} thanks fxIrich GBPNZD seems not a very good pair. I counted May 1 to Nov 18 REULT S TOTAL TRADES : 36 WIN 26 LOSS 10 ABOUT 62% WIN PROBABILITY. THE REST HOVER AROUND 70 TO 80%
Yeah this is only the first pair, hoping to back test 1 pair a day so in a few weeks i'll know for sure which pairs have the highest win rate and will stick to those
  • #1,331
  • Nov 18, 2018 11:19pm Nov 18, 2018 11:19pm
HELP
hi guys is there anyway we can draw support and resistance on mt4 mobile
been looking all over cannot find anything
any help welcome

Cheers Paul
  • #1,332
  • Edited 11:52pm Nov 18, 2018 11:41pm | Edited 11:52pm
Quoting josephkee
{quote} Hi Ahgang if you look at your chart you posted, the first lost trade would have tp at fibo 200 if your fibo was correctly drawn. Your 100 fibo seems to be on top of another bar next to the engulfing. thanks
Hello Mate

We must not focus on how many TP we can get. If your TP always smaller than SL, this is base on confirmation bar but refer to engulfing bar to calculate TP,it is possible you may win 2 trades but lose all when 1 trade SL.

For me if want to exam this confirmation method, pip gains is the one more accurate instead just by win lose number.

Just my 2 cents.

Example trade below
We are using 74pips SL to win a 40 pips TP.
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  • #1,333
  • Nov 19, 2018 1:02am Nov 19, 2018 1:02am
Hi
you think is doable? If Vince stats for USDYEN says 30 wins and 6 losses and mine is 30 wins and 7 losses, does it mean then that if you take all valid engulfing bar (with confirmation) along the way, and over a six month period you will end up winner? That is to say along a trend, there are many many setups which turn up profitable. You will take the trade as it presented to you even if you have not tp the first one. Is this a crazy idea? If you think the money is not enough considering 6 months, then do 2 pairs over six months. Repeat throughout the 6 months.

Fundamentally hzs10 rules has not change, just an idea. I have updated her on the side but no response from her as yet. Please politely tell me if I am wrong.

Please see my chart for the setups along the trend where the most money is made.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,334
  • Nov 19, 2018 1:31am Nov 19, 2018 1:31am
I found this indicator for candle stick patterns a long time ago.

Hope you can use this.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 pattern_recognition_master_v7_nmc.mq4   32 KB | 368 downloads
  • #1,335
  • Nov 19, 2018 2:22am Nov 19, 2018 2:22am
Engulfing bars on EURCAD, EURJPY, EURUSD. Check rules before entry - purely just pointing out what pairs have engulfings.
  • #1,336
  • Nov 19, 2018 3:51am Nov 19, 2018 3:51am
Hi Josephkee, Im worried about R:R, been testing and when the candle after the engulfing is the middle size of this one, the R:R is against us, not even 1:1, so this we have to Work it

Quoting josephkee
Hi you think is doable? If Vince stats for USDYEN says 30 wins and 6 losses and mine is 30 wins and 7 losses, does it mean then that if you take all valid engulfing bar (with confirmation) along the way, and over a six month period you will end up winner? That is to say along a trend, there are many many setups which turn up profitable. You will take the trade as it presented to you even if you have not tp the first one. Is this a crazy idea? If you think the money is not enough considering 6 months, then do 2 pairs over six months. Repeat throughout...
  • #1,337
  • Nov 19, 2018 4:13am Nov 19, 2018 4:13am
Quoting Trinquete
Hi Josephkee, Im worried about R:R, been testing and when the candle after the engulfing is the middle size of this one, the R:R is against us, not even 1:1, so this we have to Work it {quote}
Agree, I have spoken to Vince offline and he said the correct way is to put the fibo at Engulfing not Confirmation bar. Unless, if everyone agrees that confirmation bar is not important and you can live with a few unconfirmed (maybe five) out of 25 trades and accept that its going your wrong way and don't need confirmation then you just enter after the engulfing no matter what and hope for the best.That way, you can get R:R=1.

Maybe Vince can confirm that the number of unconfirmed EB is not substantial in his test? How about you Trinquete?

We have not heard from hzs10 for a long time. I pm her but no reply too.
  • #1,338
  • Nov 19, 2018 5:24am Nov 19, 2018 5:24am
Quoting josephkee
{quote} Agree, I have spoken to Vince offline and he said the correct way is to put the fibo at Engulfing not Confirmation bar. Unless, if everyone agrees that confirmation bar is not important and you can live with a few unconfirmed (maybe five) out of 25 trades and accept that its going your wrong way and don't need confirmation then you just enter after the engulfing no matter what and hope for the best.That way, you can get R:R=1. Maybe Vince can confirm that the number of unconfirmed EB is not substantial in his test? How about you Trinquete?...

Hi Joseph,

My take is that confirmation bar is important. Also Price Action. You have to know what's exactly happening on the chart so that you don't enter blindly just because there's an engulfing candle. This system/strategy is really great where we wait for engulfing candles, for me this is my 1st qualification before analyzing the possible trade. Then I check other factors as well before going into the trade such as price location, pivot, s/r, trendline and I also check higher timeframe to check if it is the same direction.

To have a good R:R, always enter at 100% fibo, if price already more than 100%, put a limit order, for sure price will retrace a little, just have to wait for your order to get filled. If price goes to TP, without you, then just move on to the next trade. Best to get a good entry price always, so get rid of FOMO.

Just my few cents...
Hope this helps...
We're not here to be right, we're here to Profit Consistently!
  • #1,339
  • Nov 19, 2018 5:47am Nov 19, 2018 5:47am
Quoting Trinquete
Hi Josephkee, Im worried about R:R, been testing and when the candle after the engulfing is the middle size of this one, the R:R is against us, not even 1:1, so this we have to Work it {quote}
Hello Mate
At least we worried about the same issue. Purely talking about win and lose are meaningless. RR play an important part in forex. Never ever against the rule of thumb.
  • #1,340
  • Nov 19, 2018 5:50am Nov 19, 2018 5:50am
Ok. lets trade, if this 4h candle close above 112.810 will buy.
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