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Studying on Supply/Demand

  • #21
  • Nov 12, 2018 9:58pm Nov 12, 2018 9:58pm
This is how i draw :

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  • #22
  • Nov 13, 2018 12:23am Nov 13, 2018 12:23am
Quoting batus
This is how i draw : {image}
Don't think I understood, especially Supply right after WRB.
Do you have kind of rules, how to draw it?
  • #23
  • Nov 13, 2018 4:33am Nov 13, 2018 4:33am
Quoting LuckyMind
{quote} Don't think I understood, especially Supply right after WRB. Do you have kind of rules, how to draw it?
It's basic of supply & demand. 2 types of supply & 2 types of demand.
The one in the above chart is DBD.

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  • #24
  • Nov 13, 2018 4:36am Nov 13, 2018 4:36am
Quoting LuckyMind
Hello everyone! Ok, i am giving up to really understand how is Supply/Demands works by myself. So I hope advanced traders will help me (and everyone who interested) to get concepts. The reason why I am into Supply/Demand - I think it works, even rather I would say I see very intersing things at charts. I flow around some gig threads here about S/D and now i have big mess in my mind. Some notes and goals: - firstly understand how to draw S/D with as much as possible strict rules, perfectly if it will be so strict, that it can be coded - understand...
S/D (I call it S/R, assuming we are talking the same thing) for me are price levels where price direction has turned on more than one occasion, i.e. where the balance of buyers to sellers has changed according to the price record. I don't code but once you have a clear definition such as this, I'd imagine coding it wouldn't be an impossibility.

However, a couple of observations I have learned over time about S/R might be valid here. First, a prior identified S/R level does not mean prices will stop/turn there at their next visit. My studies suggest it is essentially a random predictor, i.e. prices respect or ignore the level roughly equally.

Second, more of an anecdote. I once saw a demonstration where a series of random horizontal lines were drawn on blank paper. Random charts were then in turn overlaid on the lined paper. For every chart you could find convincing S/R areas somewhere that corresponded to every line. It suggests that such areas might really be illusory in reality.

The point is that I'm not sure they contain anything so valuable that you need to try so deeply analyse or understand. I'd suggest their greater value is to help define low risk trades. If you can put a stop a little beyond a prior defined S/R area and play for a trade the other way with a greater likely reward than the risk, you have set up a system that can be profitable on a 50:50 success entry.
  • #25
  • Nov 13, 2018 5:49pm Nov 13, 2018 5:49pm
[quote=LuckyMind;11682797]
Quoting patterncode
{quote} Wide Range Bode Hiddeng Gap - at my chats they are marked by white/black dots on bars. Definition is - body bigger, than bodies of last 3 bars, also low of next bar not touching high of previous bar (for up WRB HG), and high of bar after not touching low of previous bar (for down WRB HG)

Wow, that sounds complex

Thanks for reply though
  • #26
  • Nov 13, 2018 6:39pm Nov 13, 2018 6:39pm
Quoting batus
This is how i draw : {image}
RBR/DBD/RBD/DBR/SNR - is what we should draw
Fresh/Gap/Test/Break/Compress/ - is what we should look
Entry/Exit/Risk/Reward - is what we should manage
PA continuation/reversal - is what we should confirm

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  • #27
  • Nov 14, 2018 12:38am Nov 14, 2018 12:38am
[quote=patterncode;11691142]
Quoting LuckyMind
{quote} Wow, that sounds complex Thanks for reply though
Not really, if use indicators. Tell me, if you need them.
  • #28
  • Nov 14, 2018 12:42am Nov 14, 2018 12:42am
Quoting batus
{quote} RBR/DBD/RBD/DBR/SNR - is what we should draw Fresh/Gap/Test/Break/Compress/ - is what we should look Entry/Exit/Risk/Reward - is what we should manage PA continuation/reversal - is what we should confirm {image}
Using basic pictures of DBD/RBR - i would mark Supply this way.
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  • #29
  • Nov 14, 2018 4:23am Nov 14, 2018 4:23am
Quoting LuckyMind
{quote} Using basic pictures of DBD/RBR - i would mark Supply this way. {image}
Yea, thats cool
  • #30
  • Nov 14, 2018 1:38pm Nov 14, 2018 1:38pm
Quoting LuckyMind
Hello everyone! Ok, i am giving up to really understand how is Supply/Demands works by myself. So I hope advanced traders will help me (and everyone who interested) to get concepts. The reason why I am into Supply/Demand - I think it works, even rather I would say I see very intersing things at charts. I flow around some gig threads here about S/D and now i have big mess in my mind. Some notes and goals: - firstly understand how to draw S/D with as much as possible strict rules, perfectly if it will be so strict, that it can be coded - understand...
well you have the very raw beginner idea of it.. you can't trade from what you are reading..

you most likely can not be helped by advanced traders on this subject as you don't have enough understanding of the market

your missing 90% of the point ... wouldn't it be awfully guru-ish to stop there?

unfortunately no one can show you ... open your mind to look at the map a bit differently... draw your lines and grade them
then build a map/chart of graded lines and watch price paint around these areas that you marked for example:

I notice 1.000 has been touched 8 times in the past recently price broke through and now it is retracing toward 1.000
RZ - resistance
8 - number of touches

how is price painting on lead up to hitting this resistance point?
swapped - price broke from previously trading about the line
a-z - wave structure that inherently defines what happens on sub time frames(if i was trading on lower charts what would i be doing? where are my stops)

refer to your map when price has moved against a zone like this in the past what was the result?

what thing is almost always common?

then

how can i trade this?

how can I control my risk?

if I look at this as 90% of these zones give a result of 1:1 r:r at 55% hit rate on percentage based risk allocation will I make money?

ask yourself these questions as you read and watch price around zones then your brain will naturally overtime build statistical data to disprove previously held notions of what solid trades are and replace them with new statistical data..
  • #31
  • Nov 14, 2018 4:59pm Nov 14, 2018 4:59pm
I doubt this will help, as I'm not sure anything will help avoid the years of difficulty necessary to master the art of trading, but here goes. Here's why you are having such difficulty making this work. Look at the markets like a casino looks at a roulette wheel. The casino can't predict the next number that will come up on the wheel. But they can predict with certainty that over enough spins, they will collect their "edge" off the wheel. If you are trying to predict the future direction of price, you are doomed to fail. No one can predict the future direction of the market. It is just as unpredictable as the next number on a roulette wheel. You have to find an "edge" that doesn't depend on predicting the future of a purely random event, which of course, is impossible. You need to find your "edge" before you waste any more time trying to work out the details of how to chart and exploit an edge that doesn't exist. I'm guessing that isn't what you wanted to hear, but it's the truth. Most don't know the truth and they don't want to hear it. Most fail. As long as you are alive, you haven't failed until you quit. Best success in your journey. - G
  • #32
  • Nov 16, 2018 1:27am Nov 16, 2018 1:27am
Rules that i applied:
- Buy at demand
- Sell at supply
- Always look to the left

No compromise on risk. Its about how we deal with the risk.
Best target is the flip.

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  • #33
  • Nov 16, 2018 1:54pm Nov 16, 2018 1:54pm
Quoting Graviton
I doubt this will help, as I'm not sure anything will help avoid the years of difficulty necessary to master the art of trading, but here goes. Here's why you are having such difficulty making this work. Look at the markets like a casino looks at a roulette wheel. The casino can't predict the next number that will come up on the wheel. But they can predict with certainty that over enough spins, they will collect their "edge" off the wheel. If you are trying to predict the future direction of price, you are doomed to fail. No one can predict the...

Thats not true. I wonder how you can have an edge if you don’t make an hipotesys where price will go next. It’s all about price!
  • #34
  • Nov 16, 2018 2:36pm Nov 16, 2018 2:36pm
Quoting emicovi
{quote} Thats not true. I wonder how you can have an edge if you don’t make an hipotesys where price will go next. It’s all about price!
If your edge is about following price with PA, sometimes you don't need to have a forecast on price direction. There is an element of real time intuition which takes a long time to develop.

Example was this GU trade the other day. All my analysis was suggesting to trade long. A bear PA setup formed at the London open, noticed the space to run so pulled the trigger and ended up bagging a few hundred pips.

This move would have caught out a lot of people off guard and left them scratching their heads.
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  • #35
  • Nov 16, 2018 4:19pm Nov 16, 2018 4:19pm
Quoting emicovi
{quote} Thats not true. I wonder how you can have an edge if you don’t make an hipotesys where price will go next. It’s all about price!
I understand your question. Suppose price movement beyond the next few minutes is a purely random event that sometimes has a little bias (trend) imposed. Imagine it's like flipping a coin that is weighted so it comes up heads 60% of the time. You can have an edge if you bet heads all the time, even though you are never specifically predicting what the next coin flip (or price movement) will be. Best success. - G
  • #36
  • Nov 17, 2018 2:07am Nov 17, 2018 2:07am
Batus can u explain why this is failure
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  • #37
  • Edited 8:23am Nov 17, 2018 7:06am | Edited 8:23am
Quoting Jachinder
Batus can u explain why this is failure {image} {image}
It's a good setup, there is nothing wrong. U can read my ebook about that setup.
Charts below self explained.

Sorry for interrupting this thread with this setup. This is the last time and will not happen again.

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Example:

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  • #38
  • Nov 18, 2018 3:59am Nov 18, 2018 3:59am
Quoting batus
{quote} It's a good setup, there is nothing wrong. U can read my ebook about that setup. Charts below self explained. Sorry for interrupting this thread with this setup. This is the last time and will not happen again. {image} Example: {image}
i love it but i cant find exactly H L H HH because somewhere we have many h or l help me
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  • #39
  • Nov 18, 2018 12:00pm Nov 18, 2018 12:00pm
Hi Batus, please share your ebook link to see your setup. Thanks.
  • #40
  • Nov 18, 2018 1:00pm Nov 18, 2018 1:00pm
Quoting amir558
{quote} i love it but i cant find exactly H L H HH because somewhere we have many h or l help me {image}

Is it trading from levels? Why it's called supply and demand if supply always equal demand in every point?
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