PM May battles to save Brexit deal as ministers quit

Because Brexit is a test case against 'progressive' political globalisation and centralisation. There are powerful forces for good and bad that either want separation and 'self-determinism' or more integration - so without a conformity and a fairly even split either way - there is an air of uncertainty - which markets read as being detrimental to a currencies's relative strength. Intrinsic value (the sum of all parts) tends to correct speculative moves in the end. So we trade the volatility - while others fret and howl to the sky.

Nov 15, 2018 9:57am

they pay for themselves

Quoting Bakker

Disliked

The UK's days are numbered with or without brexit, they should get rid of the monarchy and use the money accumulated over so many years by the royal family for infrastructure improvement.

Ignored

Nov 15, 2018 10:58am

You're from the US ,let me ask you would you let other nations take over the Whitehouse
all you're own opinion no one knows the end result over time, I can see a positive outcome EU is in no great shape itself
We have no choice but to walk away

Quoting Hareii

Disliked

{quote} The state negotiators from both sides are all experts who are experienced and well-schooled in the art of negotiation. They know their negotiating stuffs. What you said will only work if you are negotiating from a position of strength like in the case of US vs China trade deal where US economic and military power well exceed China's and Trump can unilaterally do what he want and walk away till China ask to talk and concede. In the case of EU vs UK, UK need the deal more than EU. EU will suffer if there is a no deal but UK will suffer a lot...

Ignored

dee50

Nov 15, 2018 11:18am

"Soft' Brexit agreement not a done deal, warn EU leaders"
"France, Spain, Denmark and Netherlands say agreement must not give UK unfair advantage"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...arn-eu-leaders

The EU 27 have not signed off on the draft agreement, and are unlikely to!!!
The last 24 hrs have been a complete waste of everyone's time, every one except the money men who are making a fortune off all this nonsense.
People resigning, votes of no confidence and all the other shit, simply reveal the extent of these peoples utter stupidity and incompetence, parliament was never going to approve on this the EU 27 are unlikely to approve either so what exactly was the point?
There are only 2 options, since the vote in 2016 there have only ever been 2 options

1. Leave. No Deal.
2. Don't leave.

Nov 15, 2018 8:29am

Quoting NotAtrader

Disliked

Now somebody tell me - how on earth is that bad for GBP? Anyone?

Ignored

Its just creating volatility for the market maker to milk dry the small account. All these bad news are just politicking. I bet there is not a single member of the house who is confident that he/she can secure a better deal than what is currently agreed with EU. Anyone who wish to take on May's position has to be confident that he/she can do better than her i.e. secure a better deal or risk a no deal. If he/she is confident, then the question is what support his confidence that he/she can do better? These ppl knows how hard the negotiation is and if they can do better, they would have step up earlier in the first place. The rest are just political show and dance to show the electorate that they are "fighting for their interest". At the end of the day, they still will let May take the lion share of the risk and blame. May will remain the PM and the deal will be passed through parliament. This is my call.

Nov 15, 2018 2:38pm

Quoting dee50

Disliked

"Soft' Brexit agreement not a done deal, warn EU leaders" "France, Spain, Denmark and Netherlands say agreement must not give UK unfair advantage" https://www.theguardian.com/politics...arn-eu-leaders The EU 27 have not signed off on the draft agreement, and are unlikely to!!! The last 24 hrs have been a complete waste of everyone's time, every one except the money men who are making a fortune off all this nonsense. People resigning, votes of no confidence and all the...

Ignored

You think the chief EU negotiator has not gotten prior in-principle endorsement from top leaderships of the various EU countries before formally agreeing on the draft deal with UK May? Not likely. This is not how the system work. EU side is just playing their own show-and-dance game to their own electorate that their interest is protected (just like the UK politicians did by resigning, by protesting in parliament etc.). Its just political showmanship.

Nov 15, 2018 2:45pm

Quoting Bones

Disliked

You're from the US ,let me ask you would you let other nations take over the Whitehouse all you're own opinion no one knows the end result over time, I can see a positive outcome EU is in no great shape itself We have no choice but to walk away {quote}

Ignored

Using your example of whitehouse: at the current state, UK in EU is equivalent to the white house without a fence and people can enter and leave at will. Now May has secured a deal which allow her to build a fence around whitehouse to prevent people from enter and leaving at will but due to EU's demand cannot build a gate in front. So the front of the whitehouse is still open and people can still enter and leave at will through the front gate. But even with the front gate open, May is able to post guards at the front to prevent refugees from entering. It is not the best deal but still better than a whitehouse with no fencing around which allows refugees free entrance.

DaJoWaBa

Nov 15, 2018 8:41am

Quoting NotAtrader

Disliked

Somebody please help me to figure out this puzzle. Why everyone expects GBP to crash? 1. T May wants UK out of EU. 2. She managed to get a deal. 3. Many of the ministers don't like that and they quit. 4. Because of that T May's days may be numbered. 5. If that happens the above mentioned ministers may come back and take over and reunite U.K with EU. Now somebody tell me - how on earth is that bad for GBP? Anyone?

Ignored

I'm not sure if you're writing with tongue-in-cheek or serious but for a moment let me assume it's serious;
1. T May doesn't want UK out of EU. She was a Remainer and only assumed the PM role after the Brexit Vote. So, she's reluctantly duty-bound to carry out a manifesto pledge. Consequently, she is inclined to be as close to the EU as possible with Brexit in name only.
2. Yes, she did, on EU terms, having compromised on pretty well everything in order to be as close to EU as possible. EU said all along that to be close, you have to accept the 4 pillars in entirety and who can blame them? the Commission and the EU state heads have no incentive to break that condition. So, the result is not really a Brexit, for now, anyway.
3. Indeed, for opposing reasons. Some quit because it's not a proper Brexit. Some quit because it's not still in the EU in reality (in the Customs Union, In Single market etc.)
4. That might be so, although it's not clear who'd actually be brave or stupid enough to want to try to catch the falling, spinning, whirling knife.
5. That's a huge assumption: No one can tell who'd be the PM and what their platform would be. Therefore, right now, the political uncertainty results in peeps selling the GBP. This political uncertainty will run for a long time.
One day it's possible that GBP will climb into the light from the dark tunnel but not whilst this political uncertainty continues. Like with Sovereign Bonds, there's a short-term and a long-term risk to assess.

Brentrading

Nov 15, 2018 8:13am

Quoting NotAtrader

Disliked

Somebody please help me to figure out this puzzle. Why everyone expects GBP to crash? 1. T May wants UK out of EU. 2. She managed to get a deal. 3. Many of the ministers don't like that and they quit. 4. Because of that T May's days may be numbered. 5. If that happens the above mentioned ministers may come back and take over and reunite U.K with EU. Now somebody tell me - how on earth is that bad for GBP? Anyone?

Ignored

haven't you noticed by now any negative news concerning brexit pushes GBP down just as any positive news pushes GBP up..

Brentrading

Nov 15, 2018 8:45am

Quoting rover99x

Disliked

{quote} Not necessarily, some were expected to go! It depends who and how many

Ignored

either way there's uncertainty in the British Government right now. not good for the pound. however if the news for tomorrow is they've kissed and made up and there's a good deal on the table, GBP will go back up and so its been going on for a while. big moves in minutes up or down can happen for GBP on any given day on brexit news.

loriflori

Nov 15, 2018 8:36am

May should have taken President Trump's advice when they visited a few months ago. If there is anything he excels at, it is business. It would have benefited her to heed his advice in this arena. "The Art of the Deal"

Nov 15, 2018 10:47am

Quoting Bones

Disliked

you can not get a good deal if you don't mean it ,we have to walk away until EU moves its made up rules or No Deal roll the dice {quote}

Ignored

The state negotiators from both sides are all experts who are experienced and well-schooled in the art of negotiation. They know their negotiating stuffs. What you said will only work if you are negotiating from a position of strength like in the case of US vs China trade deal where US economic and military power well exceed China's and Trump can unilaterally do what he want and walk away till China ask to talk and concede.

In the case of EU vs UK, UK need the deal more than EU. EU will suffer if there is a no deal but UK will suffer a lot more. EU will suffer a lot more if they have a bad deal vs UK having a good deal and EU will take the route of no deal if forced. In a nutshell, EU is negotiating from a position of strength and their red line is the N Ireland border which they will not concede and which May has realized. EU is negotiating for its member state which are more diverse and have more conflicting interest dynamics than UK. EU will not give up much on the negotiating table. If they are willing to give up trade with UK, they will be willing to give up every other terms. The current agreement is with regard to their wish to maintain a friendly relationship with UK post brexit. Otherwise, they will not have concede with the current agreement which the UK parliament deemed 'bad'. A reality check on the UK part is in order. But I believe they are just playing the political game, at the end of the day, they know the pieces and will fall in line to endorse the agreement.

NotAtrader

Nov 15, 2018 7:57am

Somebody please help me to figure out this puzzle.

Why everyone expects GBP to crash?
1. T May wants UK out of EU.
2. She managed to get a deal.
3. Many of the ministers don't like that and they quit.
4. Because of that T May's days may be numbered.
5. If that happens the above mentioned ministers may come back and take over and reunite U.K with EU.

Now somebody tell me - how on earth is that bad for GBP?

Anyone?

NotAtrader

Nov 15, 2018 8:17am

Quoting Brentrading

Disliked

{quote} haven't you noticed by now any negative news concerning brexit pushes GBP down just as any positive news pushes GBP up..

Ignored

It depends on what do you mean by "negative news concerning brexit"

Nov 15, 2018 9:52am

you can not get a good deal if you don't mean it ,we have to walk away until EU moves its made up rules
or
No Deal roll the dice

Quoting Hareii

Disliked

{quote} Its just creating volatility for the market maker to milk dry the small account. All these bad news are just politicking. I bet there is not a single member of the house who is confident that he/she can secure a better deal than what is currently agreed with EU. Anyone who wish to take on May's position has to be confident that he/she can do better than her i.e. secure a better deal or risk a no deal. If he/she is confident, then the question is what support his confidence that he/she can do better? These ppl knows how hard the negotiation...

Ignored

Nov 15, 2018 3:43pm

unfettered migration is a problem to most brits but it's about much more
interesting you focus on that
anyway you guys want the wall

Quoting Hareii

Disliked

{quote} Using your example of whitehouse: at the current state, UK in EU is equivalent to the white house without a fence and people can enter and leave at will. Now May has secured a deal which allow her to build a fence around whitehouse to prevent people from enter and leaving at will but due to EU's demand cannot build a gate in front. So the front of the whitehouse is still open and people can still enter and leave at will through the front gate. But even with the front gate open, May is able to post guards at the front to prevent refugees...

Ignored

nbfx

Nov 15, 2018 8:34am

Quoting NotAtrader

Disliked

Somebody please help me to figure out this puzzle. Why everyone expects GBP to crash? 1. T May wants UK out of EU. 2. She managed to get a deal. 3. Many of the ministers don't like that and they quit. 4. Because of that T May's days may be numbered. 5. If that happens the above mentioned ministers may come back and take over and reunite U.K with EU. Now somebody tell me - how on earth is that bad for GBP? Anyone?

Ignored

There is another option. Sit back and enjoy the spectacle.
A few people are going to both make a lot of money in any volatility, many more are going to lose big, gambling on what they think is most likely... They already have and will continue to do so. If you must trade anything, trade that which you can understand...

rover99x

Nov 15, 2018 8:30am

Quoting NotAtrader

Disliked

{quote} It depends on what do you mean by "negative news concerning brexit"

Ignored

Indeed, what a Remainer counts as positive a Brexitier would count as negative, and visa versa! It's the uncertainty and against consensus that moves the market

rover99x

Nov 15, 2018 8:32am

Quoting Manudatinh

Disliked

{quote} That's how the MMs make money. Just trade what you see, don't trade what you think. My charts are telling me that now is the best time to buy GBP. Happy trading!

Ignored

So true! Just trade your method, whatever it is......

rover99x

Nov 15, 2018 8:34am

Quoting Brentrading

Disliked

{quote} ministers resigning because they don't like the deal is most definitely negative news, it creates uncertainty and negative sentiment . the market likes stability and certainty.

Ignored

Not necessarily, some were expected to go! It depends who and how many

Brentrading

Nov 15, 2018 8:32am

Quoting NotAtrader

Disliked

{quote} It depends on what do you mean by "negative news concerning brexit"

Ignored

ministers resigning because they don't like the deal is most definitely negative news, it creates uncertainty and negative sentiment . the market likes stability and certainty.

Lamplighter

Nov 16, 2018 6:22am

Quoting Hareii

Disliked

{quote} You think the chief EU negotiator has not gotten prior in-principle endorsement from top leaderships of the various EU countries before formally agreeing on the draft deal with UK May? Not likely. This is not how the system work. EU side is just playing their own show-and-dance game to their own electorate that their interest is protected (just like the UK politicians did by resigning, by protesting in parliament etc.). Its just political showmanship.

Ignored

Spot on. That was the mandate Barnier was given right at the start of negotiations. Only at the very end will the EU 27 heads get to sign off on the massive tome that is the exit agreement. Which is where we are now - almost. This is a long drawn out process and it will be some years yet until one can say it is all at an end.

Bakker

Nov 15, 2018 8:56am

The UK's days are numbered with or without brexit, they should get rid of the monarchy and use the money accumulated over so many years by the royal family for infrastructure improvement.

Nov 15, 2018 11:00am

wars have happened for less that's where we are at
any cost that deal is not good enough

Nov 15, 2018 11:08am

you're looking at a deal worse than being a member ,
that's the whole point from EU
now we all pay the price

BeyondD

Nov 15, 2018 8:24am

This message can only be saved by one person. He should be the new PM in chrage of Brexit. Yohay Elam is the hero we deserve. Gbp 1.33 nao!

ashimkhan

Nov 15, 2018 8:06am

I think gbp pair any moment crash up/down
Next any day
Baxit news flash moment

ashimkhan

Nov 15, 2018 8:08am

Don't trade gbp pair
Eu uk end bexit deal

Nov 15, 2018 11:12am

MAYXIT???

Nov 15, 2018 8:29am

teast time

Trader#4C52

Nov 15, 2018 8:11am

Quoting NotAtrader

Disliked

Somebody please help me to figure out this puzzle. Why everyone expects GBP to crash? 1. T May wants UK out of EU. 2. She managed to get a deal. 3. Many of the ministers don't like that and they quit. 4. Because of that T May's days may be numbered. 5. If that happens the above mentioned ministers may come back and take over and reunite U.K with EU. Now somebody tell me - how on earth is that bad for GBP? Anyone?

Ignored

majority or parliament do not like the draft deal. and will probably have no approval on it. so that's a bad thing for UK.

Trader#01FA

Nov 15, 2018 9:29am