BJ42 - Pull Backs

4 hour signals / 2 hour signals and only the occasional 1 hour setup.

Philosophy
Entry in direction of trend (determined by the the daily strength) after a pull back. Its kind of picking a top or bottom.

Rules
Context: Daily Trend as defined by moving averages on 4 hour or daily as being in correct order. Or a series of HH and HL or LH and LL.
Setup : 4 hour or 2 hour or 1 hour Pull Back to a barrier (support/resistance/BRN00/demand/supply zones) and oscillator extreme or price has to clearly stall (see 3rd chart below)
Signal: Price action (break of inside bar / pin bar / dbhlc / dblhc / outside bar / fakey) in direction of trend
Entry:1 pip above extreme of signal bar
Exit: 1 pip below extreme of signal bar
TP: 2:1

Observations
Last year there were approximately 200 trades that were really solid setups, across all pairs.
70% of them triggered on candles that closed at 4pm 8pm and 12am GMT+10. That's about 140 trades in the evenings.
Rare to get more than 1 trade a day.
3 times last year there was 10 to 15 days without a trade from any of the 20+ pairs I watch.

In a strong trend, a simple signal bar when oscillator is extreme is sufficient.
Otherwise, it is important to have a pull back to a barrier, or horizontal buildup, or some kind of failure before entering. There must be a confluence of reasons and more than just a single signal bar. Otherwise there is no edge.

My personal observations is that setups are best when they are supported by the daily charts.

The two examples below are classics. The first triggered with a pin bar and the second with a dbhlc

Trade 1.
EurChf.
Context: Daily and 4 hour downtrend.
Setup: Oscillator Extreme. Pull back to 38.2% of last down move.
Signal: Wick into a supply zone followed by an inside bar.
Entered on break of the inside bar.

Truth be told.... ..... ..... another trade I know took this trade on the 1 hour chart and I was swayed into the trade by his comments.
It was not a sold example of pull back trading. Ideally there should have been a better candle pattern to signal the setup.
Immediate Loss of 1R

Trade 2:
Context: Uptrend.
Setup: pull back to demand zone and oscillator extreme
Signal: Pin Bar
Result 2R

Trade 3: EURAUD
Trade not taken because I was in a long on daily.
The long was exited at the same time the short on the 4 hour was triggered.
Lesson: - Keep it simple. Trade the 4 hour

Trade 4: EurJpy
Context: Downtrend
Setup: Pull back with oscillator extreme and a pin bar a few candles before
Signal: Outside down bar.
Entry: just before close of signal bar
Exit : just prior to high of outside bar
Exit TP: 3R or swing on the oscillator
Daily setup was ok. Just was a loss.

Trade 5:
Usd Chf
Context: up trend
Setup: dbl bottom with oscillator extreme
Signal: pin bar

Update: next candle has had no follow through - Almost 1R down already.
Daily was good. Just a loss.

Trade 6
Context: downtrend.
Setup: oscillator extreme
Signal: BeOB after a couple of bearish pins earlier.
Entry: on pull back of the BEOB

Trade 3: result
2R

Trade 7:
Pull back.
Context: Downtrend
Setup: oscillator extreme
Signal: Several failed pin bars
(This is the second attempt at the same trade. First one was trade 6 which was stopped out).
Its also Friday night, I dont know what that will mean. So I have put the TP at 3R in case we get a good move on the weekend.

Trade 7: loss

8. NZDCAD
brn / oscillator / small outside up candle
Went 1:1 then had a 1 hour massive outside down bar back to BE.
shaken out on 1hr
Exited at Break Even

9. EJ
Massive outside down bar.
Entered on break short with stop above the retracement.

Final Result - went 1R - took half off, it then retraced all the way to stop me out for BE

Update - I looked at a 1 hour chart for the reversal - I exited at break even. Price then went 2R immediately. Missed out on a good trade from looking at a different time frame

Trade 10
Context- downtrend
Setup - m top
Signal Pattern line break and Oscillator
Went .5R then stopped me out
1 R loss

Trade 8 visual - 2R

11.
AUDCAD

12. EURAUD
Daily short
Targeting 2:1 reward:risk on each trade.
Stop stays where it is (ie no trailing stop).

13.
EURUSD
1 hour trade in direction of daily.
update - nicely in profit. Stop at b.e.

14. USDCAD last week.
Stopped out.

Poor execution.
Entry was 1 pip above the first power bar.
Stop should therefore have been at the swing lows and I should still have been in this trade.

Importance of context. These trades are best done in conjunction with a daily trend.
Below is a daily setup long - at the same time as a 4 hour setup short.
The short should not be taken.