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Let's Trade Options

  • #16,281
  • Nov 13, 2018 12:19pm Nov 13, 2018 12:19pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} Sweet! Got in cheaper this morning: SBUX Nov23 65 PUT @ $1.40
I've joined in with you MM on SBUX a while ago When it was 67.68 and heading down but I'm in Nov16 67 puts in at 64c

price of SBUX $67.29 as of a few moments ago
  • #16,282
  • Nov 13, 2018 12:59pm Nov 13, 2018 12:59pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Worth $2 now and I am holding and watching. Narrow time spreads like this are dicey and can swing in value hard with big moves, especially so as you get towards expiry. MaxP is over $6 but I am looking for at least half that.
closed for $2, pretty typical I will close these early when they are in decent profit. A rally to the close of the week could have eroded some or all of the profit, so better safe than sorry, money in the bank, move on to another trade...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,283
  • Nov 13, 2018 1:22pm Nov 13, 2018 1:22pm
Quoting The Fool
money it been a hard slog with SBUX puts - maybe we get some more hot legs down in the broad market to close the week? Good luck anyways.
It sure has!. But the daily chart is just now showing some movement and the weekly chart is still looking really good. I would expect something below $66 by the end of the week. The good thing is that movement in the stock means movement in the options. There are some options out there that seem to be held steady for a long time and then they'll finally explode with some movement.

The good thing is my average cost is <$0.92, so I may even be able to make a profit by the end of the week rather than holding until next week.

This is a good test of seeing what the power of the weekly indicators are....
  • #16,284
  • Nov 13, 2018 1:24pm Nov 13, 2018 1:24pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I've joined in with you MM on SBUX a while ago When it was 67.68 and heading down but I'm in Nov16 67 puts in at 64c price of SBUX $67.29 as of a few moments ago
You should be able to make a profit with that. Let's hope we both make some green!!
  • #16,285
  • Nov 13, 2018 1:25pm Nov 13, 2018 1:25pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}…... better safe than sorry, money in the bank, move on to another trade...
And THAT, folks, is the mindset of a trader!!
  • #16,286
  • Nov 13, 2018 1:34pm Nov 13, 2018 1:34pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} And THAT, folks, is the mindset of a trader!!
Yep. Trading time spreads offers some really large r:r - but to get that you have to wait until the last day or so before expiry of the front short leg. And the longer you wait, the more you risk having the trade slip away from you at the end, because the p/l profit zone shrinks. So, lessons learned many times, take the money and run. If you have good numbers, let some run til the end for glory.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,287
  • Nov 13, 2018 3:48pm Nov 13, 2018 3:48pm
looking like spoos bouncing after hours so I am glad I closed that SPXW put diagonal.

Maybe spend some money betting on a bit of a rally. Watching inflation numbers tomorrow - if they lag expectations then the bots might be set to buy the indices...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,288
  • Nov 14, 2018 10:43am Nov 14, 2018 10:43am
working on 6 straight days of red candles - at what point will all the "fear the Fed" be baked into the indices? It has been an inevitable btfd market for so long, just hard to get used to seeing a downtrend. Where is support?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,289
  • Nov 14, 2018 11:03am Nov 14, 2018 11:03am
shopping bull put spreads in SPY, not seeing enough juice yet - Dec21 puts $260 short/$257 long only 66c credit - I usually look for at least 25c per dollar spread and more like 35c would be better, this hard to find in lower delta strikes.

All my worst losses have been on credit spreads like this so I am pretty wary about entering.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,290
  • Nov 14, 2018 11:19am Nov 14, 2018 11:19am
trying to fill a SPY call fly for next Friday Nov23, $275/277.5/280 for 28c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,291
  • Edited 11:40am Nov 14, 2018 11:23am | Edited 11:40am
Quoting The Fool
trying to fill a SPY call fly for next Friday Nov23, $275/277.5/280 for 27c
was a few minutes late but we'll see
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,292
  • Nov 14, 2018 11:40am Nov 14, 2018 11:40am
Based on the weekly charts, I think the DIA (thus the Dow) is headed to the lower BB by the end of the week, so that would mean another 400 point drop over the next two days. SPY looks the same way down to about 265.

Let's see how good the weekly charts are at predicting a few candles (weeks) worth of movement....
  • #16,293
  • Nov 14, 2018 11:42am Nov 14, 2018 11:42am
if the spoos doesn't do a hard dump at the end of the NY session maybe we are putting in a base. Possibly we are seeing a lot of the Fed-fear cooking in right now and we can base for a nice little Santa rally....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,294
  • Nov 14, 2018 11:49am Nov 14, 2018 11:49am
Quoting moneymaker2
Based on the weekly charts, I think the DIA (thus the Dow) is headed to the lower BB by the end of the week, so that would mean another 400 point drop over the next two days. SPY looks the same way down to about 265. Let's see how good the weekly charts are at predicting a few candles (weeks) worth of movement....
yeah SPY $265 looks like it could be hard but there's a lot of rebalancing going on and I don't think TA is going to cover it that well. Seems clear we are in rates-based trading mode and we could see sideways to down-trend all the way til the Dec FOMC on 12/19.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,295
  • Nov 14, 2018 12:26pm Nov 14, 2018 12:26pm
Quoting The Fool
trying to fill a SPY call fly for next Friday Nov23, $275/277.5/280 for 28c
filled a Nov23 $277.5/280/282.5 call fly for 25c instead
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,296
  • Nov 14, 2018 12:44pm Nov 14, 2018 12:44pm
Just got into a trade:

WTW Dec7 54 CALL @ $0.65

Should be good for a little money....
  • #16,297
  • Nov 14, 2018 12:50pm Nov 14, 2018 12:50pm
WTW options look awfully thin. I hate starting off in the hole on them fat spreads.

I am looking at the Q's, maybe they can claw back to $175 to close the month...?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,298
  • Nov 14, 2018 1:12pm Nov 14, 2018 1:12pm
Quoting The Fool
I am looking at the Q's, maybe they can claw back to $175 to close the month...?
...holding off, will see what tomorrow brings. These situations always remind me of what Confucius said:

"He who pick bottom have smelly finger."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,299
  • Nov 14, 2018 1:22pm Nov 14, 2018 1:22pm
Quoting The Fool
WTW options look awfully thin. I hate starting off in the hole on them fat spreads. I am looking at the Q's, maybe they can claw back to $175 to close the month...?
They (WTW) really aren't that thin...I'm not sure why, but Open Interest and Volume has never been correct on any options platform I have ever traded on. Time & Sales over the last 15 minutes of trading had several hundred trading hands, so I should me able to get rid of them pretty easily. Not looking for a killer amount, but should be able to double that...

The QQQ weekly chart looks like it's close to a jump up maybe the beginning of next week. Might not get to 175, but should be close enough to make some money.

I still think we have some more downside left this week that would certainly affect the indices and some of the stocks that typically just follow or are just weak right now.
  • #16,300
  • Nov 14, 2018 3:25pm Nov 14, 2018 3:25pm
Quoting moneymaker2
....I'm not sure why, but Open Interest and Volume has never been correct on any options platform I have ever traded on. Time & Sales ...
I guess I never questioned this. I have seen my orders pop up in Time and Sales. I have no way of knowing if volume & OI are accurate as reported on various platforms. But you could know, if you are trading in fairly thin names. If you fill a 100-lot order and it doesn't show up in the WTW OI, then wtf? IfI fill a 100-lot trade in SPY, I'd have no way of knowing if it is reported as OI either way, because the liquidity is so high....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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