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Plan the Trade

  • #8,981
  • Nov 14, 2018 12:24am Nov 14, 2018 12:24am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} you should just use ispring cam like harold suggested. you can record and cut out the footage you don't want afterwards, then load on youtube. you can disable your cam/mic on the app itself or just go int hardware control panel and disable/mute them. or use windows movie maker app and load a full video and edit from there.. so many options. No mockery if you lose man. i personnally will ask twee to ban them for life if they did. as you know..i own this forum...
Sorry man. I looked into these software video recording software and spoke to my security guy at work. I can't have any recording software installed on my home network. I am forced to follow certain "rules" in order to work from home which I cannot put in jeopardy.... I will delete this post soon so please don't quote.
Staying in my lane...
  • #8,982
  • Nov 14, 2018 1:31am Nov 14, 2018 1:31am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I will probably go bust on my first trade and be a mockery for everyone to remember :-
Squash that thought before it becomes a belief.

I am guessing that you will be very protective on the first several runs. When I developed my trading style and first began to trade it live I was like a mother hen. Watching every tick in price. Re-evaluating. Re-checking. Re-Calculating.... Now it is just enter, wait for some time (varies depending on how market is moving), assign stop to one of the moving averages (which one depends on how the market is moving, how much "room" it needs), then walk away and let everything develop like it should. Just as I let the markets show me where to enter, I let the markets decide where I should get out. It is a relationship that works well for me.
  • #8,983
  • Nov 14, 2018 1:39am Nov 14, 2018 1:39am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I will probably go bust on my first trade and be a mockery for everyone to remember :-
You’d learn from that experience and have a video to refer to
So many in the Commercial section want to make me rich! :o
  • #8,984
  • Nov 14, 2018 1:39am Nov 14, 2018 1:39am
Quoting magnumfreak
{quote} Squash that thought before it becomes a belief. I am guessing that you will be very protective on the first several runs. When I developed my trading style and first began to trade it live I was like a mother hen. Watching every tick in price. Re-evaluating. Re-checking. Re-Calculating.... Now it is just enter, wait for some time (varies depending on how market is moving), assign stop to one of the moving averages (which one depends on how the market is moving, how much "room" it needs), then walk away and let everything develop like it...
My approach is similar to what you just said.
on a postive roll...
  • #8,985
  • Nov 14, 2018 2:00am Nov 14, 2018 2:00am
Quoting magnumfreak
{quote} Squash that thought before it becomes a belief. I am guessing that you will be very protective on the first several runs. When I developed my trading style and first began to trade it live I was like a mother hen. Watching every tick in price. Re-evaluating. Re-checking. Re-Calculating.... Now it is just enter, wait for some time (varies depending on how market is moving), assign stop to one of the moving averages (which one depends on how the market is moving, how much "room" it needs), then walk away and let everything develop like it...
Agree....I will be very protective until I risk 100% of market's money. My tilt or carefree/aggressive attitude comes from how much I am banked so need to control that and I should be okay. I also notice breakouts at NYSE Open nearing 00 line become unpredictable and whipsaw so need a little more data to support if it is worth trading on those days. The real challenge (with any breakouts) becomes where to put SL (for my first trade). Anything below 30T are frequently taken out and trail/offset to BE is even worse which will make me rely on my skill to get out quickly hence no set and forget and probably risky. Perhaps a bigger SL just as a catastrophic loss.

Curious with your EMAs, what is your average SL distance and trade duration and on which timeframe? I finally figured out how to export studies data into excel in Sierra so statistical research continues to optimize the SL distance. Visually, I am getting better at it but I don't want to rely on "I know it, I have seen it, it's gonna happen" type thought process unless there is some concrete evidence in the underlying data.
Staying in my lane...
  • #8,986
  • Nov 14, 2018 2:15am Nov 14, 2018 2:15am
Quoting FX-Flux
{quote} You’d learn from that experience and have a video to refer to
yeah... I already have the pitfalls on the downside listed and addressing them one at a time. I think it will be challenging with max open # of contract under 10. I am used to scaling 30-40 microlot positions so not sure. Priority is to get my first winning trade and so far, 10-15T is easily doable but I am shooting for 50T and probability reduces from 30-50T so I might have to settle with two breakouts instead of just one. I also finally figured out in Sierra how to manually scale out (or close all) position instead of flatten everything which kills my pending orders also. This platform definitely has a learning curve!
Staying in my lane...
  • #8,987
  • Nov 14, 2018 2:23am Nov 14, 2018 2:23am
Been biting my tongue for a while here, but i used to trade oil in a similar fashion about 11/12 years ago. I made a lot of money for a while, then i blew the account. Tried it again after picking myself up, maybe 6 months later, same result... I stopped doing it after i blew a third account.

All i can do is wish good luck, but please don't invest money that you can not afford to lose.

Running with huge stops or none at all means that one day it will go against you and not look back. In Elliott Wave terms, they are the powerful 3rd wave and if they become an extended wave, you do NOT want to be betting against it. Eventually your confidence will cave in or you will run out of margin, (usually just before it turns and goes in your favour, but it is too late by then, the huge loss has been realised...)

Sometimes it feels good to realise the huge loss. Oh it hurts, but at least you are back in control and can finally get some sleep again. That's if you are holding multiple scaled positions for days. Regarding the NQ, things can happen much quicker, of course!
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #8,988
  • Nov 14, 2018 2:49am Nov 14, 2018 2:49am
Quoting The Cableguy
Been biting my tongue for a while here, but i used to trade oil in a similar fashion about 11/12 years ago. I made a lot of money for a while, then i blew the account. Tried it again after picking myself up, maybe 6 months later, same result... I stopped doing it after i blew a third account. All i can do is wish good luck, but please don't invest money that you can not afford to lose. Running with huge stops or none at all means that one day it will go against you and not look back. In Elliott Wave terms, they are the powerful 3rd wave and if they...
Agree and understood. In this case, there is always a Stop Loss in form of triggering of TP. If a TP is triggered, it will close the position in max loss (or in profit) due to FIFO keeping my average position to a reachable distance but you are 100% right.. NQ trends very nicely with atleast 4 or 5 sequencing of HH or LL to scale in and out rapidly BUT she could also reverse in a 50T single candle in a heartbeat. Maybe I will end up settling with just one or two breakouts and done for the day. Better to run and feel lucky than be greedy and go bust :-)

All I got as a baseline is what Harold does. I don't have any clue how others trade so keeping his proven strategy as a compass, with 6 contracts and average 3 trades a day turns 18 into floating and realized ticks on a micro scale, if I can come at par, I am all good.
Staying in my lane...
  • #8,989
  • Nov 14, 2018 3:09am Nov 14, 2018 3:09am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Agree....I will be very protective until I risk 100% of market's money. My tilt or carefree/aggressive attitude comes from how much I am banked so need to control that and I should be okay. I also notice breakouts at NYSE Open nearing 00 line become unpredictable and whipsaw so need a little more data to support if it is worth trading on those days. The real challenge (with any breakouts) becomes where to put SL (for my first trade). Anything below 30T are frequently taken out and trail/offset to BE is even worse which will make me rely...
Caffeine kicking in, here comes a long post. VRRRROOOOOMMMMM!! LOL!

Time frame varies depending on time of day. Right now with the markets being slower than days a 50 tick chart works well or a 1 minute. Trade duration will vary as well. The one I just got out of a little while ago was around 40 minutes. Some trades just a few minutes before price comes back and takes me out. I have had trades last for 10+ hours. Love those. Let it run, walk in every now and then to check on it, yup still running. LOL! Just because a trade runs for multiple hours doesn't mean I am tied to the computer during that time. I have no problem leaving the house and doing other things. Go to the movies, cut the grass, grocery shopping. You know the normal stuff. But I won't leave until the trade is better than break even.

During the day 1,000 tick chart is great but I will also have the 1 and 5 minute charts up. Sometimes the time based charts give a better entry than the tick based.

When the trade first opens (NinjaTrader won't show the stop until the trade is active) I have it set for 50 ticks (predefined in a strategy I don't have to add it myself). However, that is not my actual stop. As soon as the trade opens I will move it to where it makes sense. The trade from earlier was 19 ticks risked and 93 ticks gained. During the day the stop will be larger. Closer to 40-50 ticks but the reward is much higher. I have had trades run for 800+ ticks (rare) and those only ended because it was getting close to end of day and I closed it manually. Most of the time I let the stop take it out. The trailing stop only gets set after price moves a good bit in my favor and the moving average I am going to use for that trade is in front of my entry price (i.e. better than break even).

If the markets start to look choppy I will switch to a method that uses a target price (take profit). I will keep using it until I have a trade that completes and then price keeps moving on. That signifies an end to the choppy market for me. Once it does that I will look for an additional entry point to re-join the trend without a profit target (pullbacks work well for this).

This gives me the lowest stress level trading that I could come up with. I could trade with a fixed profit target and do well but I like trying to squeeze as much out of a trend as I can. There are days that trading with a fixed target would have yielded a better return for me but the days that it trends far more than makes up for it.

BTW, took another trade while typing this. 12 ticks risked and 173 ticks gained. Trade duration was about 25 minutes. So I am up over 260 ticks and the sun hasn't come up yet.

If I am doing so well, why am I up so early in the morning? Because the markets are really moving right now. It won't last forever. Eventually it will go back to where it was earlier this year. About half the volume and 1/3 the price movement. Until then, I will take full advantage of all moves that I can.

Ok, end of caffeine post. LOL!
  • #8,990
  • Nov 14, 2018 3:43am Nov 14, 2018 3:43am
Quoting magnumfreak
{quote} Caffeine kicking in, here comes a long post. VRRRROOOOOMMMMM!! LOL! Time frame varies depending on time of day. Right now with the markets being slower than days a 50 tick chart works well or a 1 minute. Trade duration will vary as well. The one I just got out of a little while ago was around 40 minutes. Some trades just a few minutes before price comes back and takes me out. I have had trades last for 10+ hours. Love those. Let it run, walk in every now and then to check on it, yup still running. LOL! Just because a trade runs for multiple...
I will probably need some caffeine to absorb these as my brain is fried running my quant model in excel. I have tried the long term position trading and it makes me think about the markets all the time. I am loving the one hour a day razor focussed session with rigor as it aligns with my personality and style of managing chaos via spatial analysis. "If the markets start to look choppy I will switch to a method that uses a target price (take profit). I will keep using it until I have a trade that completes and then price keeps moving on."... I am doing something similar but only during a "microscopic pause/consolidation" during a trending episode. Every trend has a unique signature where price has to pause/hesitate/rethink/re-strategize etc. these are the regions where I also make a direction choice (mostly in the direction of HH/Up or HL/Down) and scale in with tighter TPs. if price moves in my direction, I am taking realized profits at a rapid scale. if price moves against me then I have a choice to flip/reverse direction by taking rapid losses with the hope that a reversal will continue with force making more than my rapid losses..... remember, (I repeat), to do this you do not require a SL. just scaling in via TP will contain risk beautifully if it is truly a rotation or continuation. It's the sudden and rapid spike that concerns me a little and for that, I have my equity loss protection via platform flatten feature. As realized profits grows, my risk stays the same but my win rate actually goes up because now I have more room to grow/add/spaceout etc. To address sudden spike, I have to use limit (for pullback) or trade both buy and sell directions which complicates the equation and manual execution bu certainly doable. So, sudden 20-30tick candles and total number of contracts to avoid overleverage. To address to $ of contracts, I use grid spacing to my advantage by keeping my TP distance lower than my grid space. I want a realized profit or a realized loss to occur prior to the next addition... even if it is a tick or two away. It's like a wheel of fortune where the wheel goes round and round giving us wins+losses or win+win or loss+loss. First two will always end up with net positive equity and third one involves going long and short directions via buy stop and sell stop orders. pick any poison and it will sting a little at times :-)

Edit: and while I am sharing this..... every HH or HL (this is NOT the same as Harold's HHHLLHLL way of gauging trend) episode, there is almost always an inside bar or an outside bar. an HH with a green inside bar means trend continuation. an HH with a red inside bar means indecision so watch out or try both directions.... similar to Harols's candle by candle "sizing scheme" with both of us gauging speed/force/momentum. He does that to protect his entry and take in profits... I do that to ensure my TP is always HIT resulting in either a loss or a profit... it does not matter (I think and hope I am not wrong!)
Staying in my lane...
  • #8,991
  • Nov 14, 2018 4:14am Nov 14, 2018 4:14am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I will probably need some caffeine to absorb these as my brain is fried running my quant model in excel. I have tried the long term position trading and it makes me think about the markets all the time. I am loving the one hour a day razor focussed session with rigor as it aligns with my personality and style of managing chaos via spatial analysis. "If the markets start to look choppy I will switch to a method that uses a target price (take profit). I will keep using it until I have a trade that completes and then price keeps moving on."......
Now, let's talk OrderFlow if you are still awake. Why do markets move? Because there is an equal and opposing side willing to match your entry right? without orders in the order book (market/limit/iceberg or whatever), in a centralized exchange, price will/should stall. So please tell me which one is more advantageous to a trader

 

  1. A big Stop Loss
  2. A big TP
  3. Multiple SLs
  4. Multiple TPs

When you look at OrderBook or Time and Sales, is there any way to tell the difference what action the trader took? I dont think so but I could be wrong as there is always someone in the middle knowing sh*t to throw an axe at me but let's assume across retail traders, there is no way of knowing. So, based on order flow principles, a "big" Stop Loss Order will move price against us and a "big" TP will move price in our direction. Right? If this is right than trading large contract size makes no sense. Scaling in allows me to break down risk into smaller chunks at no additional trading costs.

Riddle: Why does Spot FX brokers (across all trading platforms that I know of) allow you to enter a limit order of 100 lots on a $1000 account? Why Spot FX brokers do not allow traders to modify order size of existing pending limit or stop order? You are forced to cancel and reenter. Why? There has to be a specific reason for it.

One More: If I have a long trade open with TP at 25. Is there any advantage in opening a 100 contract Long trade at 30 ticks away to attract more buyers? This is NOT allowed in futures because you will need margin to open a pending order with your broker but if you had a large account with available margin, would it make a difference especially at illiquid times? I think Asians are doing this shit every day to manipulate price. I know this happens in Gold with millions taking both sizes by brokers and their large jewelry business customers. I bet same in Oil as well.

Staying in my lane...
  • #8,992
  • Nov 14, 2018 4:51am Nov 14, 2018 4:51am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} One More: If I have a long trade open with TP at 25. Is there any advantage in opening a 100 contract Long trade at 30 ticks away to attract more buyers? This is NOT allowed in futures because you will need margin to open a pending order with your broker but if you had a large account with available margin, would it make a difference especially at illiquid times? I think Asians are doing this shit every day to manipulate price. I know this happens in Gold with millions taking both sizes by brokers and their large jewelry business customers....
What you are referring to here is called "spoofing the market" and if found out can be quite expensive for you.
https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7797-18

Not saying they would go after an individual trader but why take the risk.

Quote
When you look at OrderBook or Time and Sales, is there any way to tell the difference what action the trader took? I dont think so but I could be wrong as there is always someone in the middle knowing sh*t to throw an axe at me but let's assume across retail traders, there is no way of knowing. So, based on order flow principles, a "big" Stop Loss Order will move price against us and a "big" TP will move price in our direction. Right? If this is right than trading large contract size makes no sense. Scaling in allows me to break down risk into smaller...

Stop losses are typically market orders and therefore do not show on a DOM window. Depth of Market is limit orders only. There are many ways to hide both the stop and the profit target so trading size doesn't necessarily matter. You could have a position size of 1000 contracts and when you hit your profit or loss level the software could just trickle in market orders until you have scaled out. This is actually a feature built into some software packages.

There are indicators that can help you see what time and sales is showing you. Order Flow Cumulative Delta is one built into NinjaTrader. I haven't found much use for it yet so I don't use it.
  • #8,993
  • Nov 14, 2018 5:18am Nov 14, 2018 5:18am
Quoting magnumfreak
{quote} What you are referring to here is called "spoofing the market" and if found out can be quite expensive for you. https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7797-18 Not saying they would go after an individual trader but why take the risk. {quote} Stop losses are typically market orders and therefore do not show on a DOM window. Depth of Market is limit orders only. There are many ways to hide both the stop and the profit target so trading size doesn't necessarily matter. You could have a position size of 1000 contracts and when...

Tbey did go after individual trader blaming him for flash crash in 2011... Be careful
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...0NC21220150422
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #8,994
  • Nov 14, 2018 7:27am Nov 14, 2018 7:27am
Quoting stt
{quote} Tbey did go after individual trader blaming him for flash crash in 2011... Be careful https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...0NC21220150422
But according to the complaint, Sarao later that month sent off an email to his futures brokerage, saying he had called the CME and “told em to kiss my ass.”

sounds like what i would've done..haha
  • #8,995
  • Nov 14, 2018 8:51am Nov 14, 2018 8:51am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I will probably need some caffeine to absorb these as my brain is fried running my quant model in excel. I have tried the long term position trading and it makes me think about the markets all the time. I am loving the one hour a day razor focussed session with rigor as it aligns with my personality and style of managing chaos via spatial analysis. "If the markets start to look choppy I will switch to a method that uses a target price (take profit). I will keep using it until I have a trade that completes and then price keeps moving on."......
Hi VEEFX, I have been following your comments around the forum for a while now.
I’m currently a Harmonics Trader who combines Price with Time.
I feel like I have met a follow trader that might have cracked the Gann Price Time Puzzle.
Do you mind explaining how you combine time with price to initiate a trade?
I currently run an automated system that combines price with Time.
If tweaked properly can be very accurate in the forex market.
  • #8,996
  • Nov 14, 2018 8:58am Nov 14, 2018 8:58am
SOME ugly distribution phase, -1170 ticks if cant do this on sim, what make me thinks to go for live, this is what happened when try to deviate from my original plan.
on a postive roll...
  • #8,997
  • Nov 14, 2018 8:59am Nov 14, 2018 8:59am
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  • #8,998
  • Nov 14, 2018 9:02am Nov 14, 2018 9:02am
There was a 123 break for 80
  • #8,999
  • Nov 14, 2018 9:04am Nov 14, 2018 9:04am
Quoting Rmg
SOME ugly distribution phase, -1170 ticks if cant do this on sim, what make me thinks to go for live, this is what happened when try to deviate from my original plan.
I am getting tossed around as well. It's the ugly 00 line I spoke off last night. Tons of whipsaw around this line.
Staying in my lane...
  • #9,000
  • Nov 14, 2018 9:09am Nov 14, 2018 9:09am
Quoting Divergence
There was a 123 break for 80
this one here Harold:

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