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The Paradox System

  • #14,581
  • Nov 9, 2018 2:33am Nov 9, 2018 2:33am
Quoting SuchParadox
EURJPY Date: News: USD News 1:30pm GMT Daily: ROMAR: Resistance EMA: Support PSAR: Support Checklist: Last MACD 0 crossing: up Lat EMA alert arrow: up Last DB attachment: top 130.137 Fibo: green and up Notes: 4hm turned up, market moved above romar and consolidated there for two days before coming back down to ema support. DB attached just under the 61.8, and there is still more potential to continue up. Daily is consolidating. 4HR: ROMAR: Support EMA: Resistance PSAR: Resistance Checklist: Last MACD 0 crossing: down Lat EMA alert arrow: down Last...
entry: missed the opening of the candle, but entered long in consolidation for 40/40 as close to ema support on daily as I could get. With h4 romar currently support, market should move back above it unless there is a strong downtrend in which case the market should consolidate against it before continuing down

note: MA lines may be incorrect.
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  • #14,582
  • Nov 9, 2018 6:52am Nov 9, 2018 6:52am
Quoting SuchParadox
{quote} entry: missed the opening of the candle, but entered long in consolidation for 40/40 as close to ema support on daily as I could get. With h4 romar currently support, market should move back above it unless there is a strong downtrend in which case the market should consolidate against it before continuing down note: MA lines may be incorrect. {image}
Evaluation: closed trade +15 pips. This was a bad trade as there want enough time to reach the 40 before the High impact news. Next time I will consider the time before entering a trade. Today's best trade would have been a short during Japans session.

Have a good weekend guys.
  • #14,583
  • Edited 11:24am Nov 9, 2018 8:38am | Edited 11:24am
I want to take a few moments and explain the greatest reason why traders bankrupt their trading accounts. And it has to do with the mathematics of trades being lost.

Let's begin with ONE losing trade:

The question is – what will it take to make up that lost trade? The answer is it will take 2 consecutive winning trades to make up the lost and then the profit. The magic word is “consecutive”. In other words – you have a lost and your next 2 trades has to be winners to make up the one for the lost and the other for the profit.

You have a 40/40 TP-SL and if you add 20 more pips to your SL, because your trade is in the losing column, then greater is the risk because now you have 60 pips to make up if the trade becomes a lost.

Now – lets look at the mathematics:

Lets say you have 5 losing trades. What will it take to make up those 5 trades? The answer is 10 consecutive winning trades; 9 to break even and 1 for the profit. This is the reason why traders go bankrupt.

If you risk your trading account (for any reason) then you can be sure you will become a loser.

Everyone have a safe and blessed weekend.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #14,584
  • Nov 9, 2018 9:34am Nov 9, 2018 9:34am
Quoting dove_alliance
I want to take a few moments and explain the greatest reason why traders bankrupt their trading accounts. And it has to do with the mathematics of trades being lost. Let's begin with ONE losing trade: The question is – what will it take to make up that lost trade? The answer is it will take take 2 consecutive winning trades to make up the lost and then the profit. The magic word is “consecutive”. In other words – you have a lost and your next 2 trades has to be winners to make up the one for the lost and the other for the profit. You have a 40/40...
Thank you Dana for your words of wisdom . You too have a safe and blessed weekend.
  • #14,585
  • Nov 9, 2018 12:06pm Nov 9, 2018 12:06pm
Quoting SuchParadox
{quote} Evaluation: closed trade +15 pips. This was a bad trade as there want enough time to reach the 40 before the High impact news. Next time I will consider the time before entering a trade. Today's best trade would have been a short during Japans session. Have a good weekend guys.
OK - my day had been caught up so I will do one more evaluation:

Your entry was off beat from the bottom with support. You pulled the trigger below ROMAR support for a long with EMA as resistance. Now think about that for a minute and take a good look at your entry chart. Your entry to EMA is less than 40 pips which is a risk for a losing trade. ROMAR MUST cross EMA to become resistance. You had the SAR for the down with the DB for a short - but the Hidden divergence is not yet showing; which means the market must retrace for the Divergence to be sync. It did retrace for the EMA resistance and reloaded for the short to bring out the Hidden Divergence for lower/low. And the best short was not during Asia because of ROMAR support. The best entry was being patient and wait for the retrace to Resistance; which was EMA. To be a successful trader you MUST SEE THE WHOLE PICTURE before pulling the trigger. You must always eliminate ALL RISK of your TP from being hit.

I hope this helps you.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #14,586
  • Nov 9, 2018 9:04pm Nov 9, 2018 9:04pm
Quoting dove_alliance
{quote} I just got in and took a look for any trades posted and noticed yours: My question is why take a short from the bottom with support blocking your TP? You might get lucky but your entry was totally at risk with TP below ROMAR. One of the rules is always be sure your TP is never at risk. Good luck and good night.
Dana, i really appreciate for your evaluation. Thank you so much for everything. Firstly, english is not my mother language so if i make a mistake please forgive me.

Anyway, you are absolutely right. My entry level was wrong. I just want to tell you what i thought yesterday. 4horseman turned down on h1&h2 and h4. Sydney opened at 129.600, romar was support at 129.300 on h2 and ema was resistance at 129.750 on h2&h4. So, i could wait for market hit 129.750 then take a short from resistances. Because, pips counting is very important to pull the trigger. But this scenario didn't happen. I really wonder your opinion about this scenario. What do you think?

Why took a short at 129.550? Market was moving under romar on h1. Then, it hit romar resistance on h1 and purple resistance on h2 at the same time. I absolutely ignored romar support on h2 and pulled the trigger. I promise Dana, i will not make same mistake again. I learnt my lesson and will always remember this rule. One of the rules is always be sure your TP is never at risk. Have a great week-end master!

Best Regards...
Deha
  • #14,587
  • Nov 9, 2018 9:10pm Nov 9, 2018 9:10pm
Quoting timetolearn
{quote} Entered short from purple resistance on h2. {image}
Evaluation: TP hit with luck. It was risky trade, my tp was under romar support. Right entry was at NY session which was market hit ema resistance on h2 and romar resistance on h1 at the same time. Next time, i will be patient to pull the trigger and not ignore romar support on h2.
  • #14,588
  • Edited 10:27pm Nov 9, 2018 9:44pm | Edited 10:27pm
Quoting timetolearn
{quote} Dana, i really appreciate for your evaluation. Thank you so much for everything. Firstly, english is not my mother language so if i make a mistake please forgive me. Anyway, you are absolutely right. My entry level was wrong. I just want to tell you what i thought yesterday. 4horseman turned down on h1&h2 and h4. Sydney opened at 129.600, romar was support at 129.300 on h2 and ema was resistance at 129.750 on h2&h4. So, i could wait for market hit 129.750 then take a short from resistances. Because, pips counting is very important...
OK - here is your entry:
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When you pulled the trigger, and in the moment, You had ROMAR as support with the lower BB in the way. You also had over 1 hour left on the bar of your entry. A hit on Purple is not an entry because it is the bottom of resistance. In order to get a trade without risk for profit the trade must be from the top of resistance which is either EMA or the Parabolic. In other words your target of entry should had been from the top of Resistance and not the bottom of Resistance. The only chart that is allow for a hit on purple for entry is the Daily. Your trading charts has a strict rule of entries on a new bar; unless it is off the Parabolic.

And the reason for entries on a new bar is because of sliders. With an extra hour on this bar you could had been caught with a ROMAR slider. The H2 is your treading chart not the H1. With your entry ROMAR had already cross EMA on the H1 - but does not mean the H2 will also cross EMA because in the moment, the H2 ROMAR was not even close to purple for any crossing.

Bottom line you took a major risk of losing your trade. But fortunately the momentum was with you.

I hope that answered your concern.

I forgot one other concern and that is the DB/SAR attached on the bottom ABOVE ROMAR giving a no entry on a short.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #14,589
  • Nov 11, 2018 9:29am Nov 11, 2018 9:29am
Hello all, I try to understand everything in base of my actual English understanding and I read paradox system.pdf few times and I still have to re read again and again but, even I know is everything there in the thread and I suppose I will find the explanation, I would like very much if someone can spend 2 minutes to explain me this 2 thinks for pleasure:
1. There is also a top and bottom Contour lines which is used as ranging for breakouts. They move
according to support and resistance of the trend.
2. Also included is a thin Red CP (Central Pivot) line attached to each candle from bar to bar;
generated from the top or the bottom of the candle. This line will disappear when one, or both, of
the Swing lines are attached.

Thank you very much and I sorry for my poor question about!

Regards Alin

P.s. For question 2 I understand the point of little red swing for any bar but for number 1 I had a doubt, thank you!
  • #14,590
  • Nov 11, 2018 9:14pm Nov 11, 2018 9:14pm
Hi Dove, I have been studying your methodology over the weekend, thank you for what looks to be a solid system. I had a question, on the daily chart on eurjpy, purple crossed romar so as per your rules that would be looking now for a change of momentum to the upside, so now I would wait for the trend on the 2h to change with romar and ema as support before I can go looking for an entry on the 1h with the trend on 2h, correct?
  • #14,591
  • Nov 11, 2018 9:52pm Nov 11, 2018 9:52pm
Trading plan 12/11/2018
Economic news : No red news

Daily
ROMAR - resistance
EMA - support
Parabolic - support(eliminated)

Checklist:
Last MACD 0 Crossing - up
Last EMA Alert Arrow - up
Last DB Attachment - top at 130.137
Fibonacci - green
Notes: Purple crossed white when daily candle opened under ema. Market is struggling ema with power of fibo 38.2 support.

H4
ROMAR - support
EMA - resistance
Parabolic - resistance

Checklist:
Last DB Attachment - down at 128.728
Last SAR Attachment - top at 129.178
Fibonacci - red
Notes : 4horseman is down but ema didn't cross romar. Blue divergence attached DB for down.

H2
ROMAR - resistance
EMA - resistance
Parabolic - resistance(eliminated)

Checklist:
Last MACD 0 Crossing - down
Last EMA Alert Arrow - down
Last DB Attachment - down at 128.728
Fibonacci - green
Notes: 4horseman turned down. Fibo 38.2, romar and parabolic resistances are very close each other. Gold divergence attached with DB at 128.728. Last DB is at the bottom with green fibo. Macd is trying to turn up.

H1
ROMAR - resistance
EMA - support
Parabolic - support

Checklist:
Last MACD 0 Crossing - up
Last EMA Alert Arrow - up
Notes: 4hm is turning up but romar is still resitance with BB upper band.

FİNAL NOTES: Market is using fibo 38.2 as a support and romar is resitance at 128.400 on d1. Fibo 50 and ema is resistance at 129.250 on h4. Both divergence attached at the bottom with DB, 4horseman is down and resistances (romar,parabolic and fibo 38.2) are holding trend down at 129.250 on h2. Romar is resistance at 129.300 on h1. Shortly, i will looking for short from resistances, if i will have enough pips to go down.
  • #14,592
  • Nov 11, 2018 9:55pm Nov 11, 2018 9:55pm
Quoting timetolearn
Trading plan 12/11/2018 Economic news : No red news Daily ROMAR - resistance EMA - support Parabolic - support(eliminated) Checklist: Last MACD 0 Crossing - up Last EMA Alert Arrow - up Last DB Attachment - top at 130.137 Fibonacci - green Notes: Purple crossed white when daily candle opened under ema. Market is struggling ema with power of fibo 38.2 support. H4 ROMAR - support EMA - resistance Parabolic - resistance Checklist: Last DB Attachment - down at 128.728 Last SAR Attachment - top at 129.178 Fibonacci - red Notes : 4horseman is down but...
Market hit romar and parabolic resistances on h2 and i pulled the trigger short with magic bullet.
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  • #14,593
  • Nov 11, 2018 10:29pm Nov 11, 2018 10:29pm
EURJPY Date: 12/11/18
News: No Major news.

Daily:

ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Support
PSAR: Support

Checklist:

Last MACD 0 crossing: up
Lat EMA alert arrow: up (on Sunday bar)
Last DB attachment: top 130.137
Fibo: green and up

Notes: 4hm consolidating against Romar resistance, with purple crossing white down. 38.2 fibo holding support. We have both ema arrows consecutively as market ranges between 4hm and 38.2 fibo. Last DB attachment was just below the 61.8 fibo with magenta divergence. BB’s moving sideways.


4HR:

ROMAR: Support
EMA: Resistance
PSAR: Resistance

Checklist:

Last MACD 0 crossing: down
Lat EMA alert arrow: down
Last DB attachment: bottom 128.720
Fibo: red and down

Notes: 4hm turned down, with db attaching below romar support, with LSB divergence, bringing out the SAR with the retrace just below ema resistance at 129.178. BB’s heading down.


2HR:
Opening Price: 129.055
ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Resistance
PSAR: Resistance

Checklist:

Last MACD 0 crossing: down, smaller bar
Lat EMA alert arrow: up
Last DB attachment: down 128.728 both gold and LSB divergence.
Fibo: green and up

Notes: 4hm consolidating down with purple crossing white up. Ema holding resistance we have macd and ema up arrow conflicting with the consolidated downtrend. BB’s closing in.

1HR:

ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Support
PSAR: Support

Checklist:

Last MACD 0 crossing: up
Lat EMA alert arrow: up
Fibo: green and up

Notes: 4hm turned up with romar resistance 18 pips away, and purple holding support. BB’s moving sideways.


Final Notes: h1 turning up, h2 turned down, h4 turning down, daily turned up. We are in a downward consolidation, with a current upswing. I will wait to take a short once h2 sar shows up, along with other confluences, possibly at ROMAR resistance, provided nothing changes.
  • #14,594
  • Nov 12, 2018 1:08am Nov 12, 2018 1:08am
Quoting timetolearn
{quote} Market hit romar and parabolic resistances on h2 and i pulled the trigger short with magic bullet. {image}
Evaluation: Tp hit! I think it was very good trade because i realized that SAR attached EMA resistance on h4 and market hit strong resistances on h2 at the same time. I counted pips so my tp was safe. In my opinion, i took a short exactly in the moment and tp hit less than 4 hours.


Best Regards
Deha
  • #14,595
  • Nov 12, 2018 2:18am Nov 12, 2018 2:18am
Trading plan: 08:00 candle server time
Red news : none

Daily:
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Support
PSAR - Support
FIBO - UP
Notes:
Market opened below EMA, SMOOTH PURPLE near by for the cross.

4 HR:
ROMAR - Support
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance
FIBO - DOWN
Notes:
Everything is pointing down, with DB/SAR bottom with both divergence and almost at FIBO red 100.

2 HR:
ROMAR - Support
EMA - Support
PSAR - Support
FIBO - DOWN
Notes:
Everything is pointing down, DBSAR attach bot at FIBO 0 red with both Divergence.

1 HR:
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance
Notes:
Everything is pointing down and in sync with H2.

Final Notes for all four charts:
Currently in a consolidated downtrend/downswing. Notice H2 H4 PURPLE out of balance, also market is at/pass Daily Parabolic but has yet to flip for the down + when WHITE PURPLE cross in consolidation it eliminates the Parabolic power.

Projected Entry:
Will be looking to short from resistance. H2 DB/SAR is bottom so next connection is going top, and if the next DB/SAR connection goes to resistance with confluences from the other chart and doesn't show an EMA reversal - will go short.

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  • #14,596
  • Nov 12, 2018 6:52am Nov 12, 2018 6:52am
DAILY TRADING PLAN date 12/11/2018
My trading plan as of 13:00 GMT NYO red new NO but 2 x Bank holliday CAD and USD

D1 chart:
ROMAR resistance
EMA resistance
Parabolic support (eliminated) purple cross white

Last MACD 0 crossing: up
Last EMA alert arrow: up
Last DB attachment: 128.133
Fibo: red and down

Notes: Purple cross white parabolic eliminated, purple cross also romar for uptrend, parabolic attached to candle and with SAR, EMA under ROMAR which mean a downtrend

H4 chart:
ROMAR resistance
EMA resistance
Parabolic resistance

Fibo: green and up
Notes: All 4 horsemen are in down, fibo green on 0, yellow dot line divergence attached on both SAR and PSAR at 128.133 tristle

H2 chart:
ROMAR resistance
EMA resistance
PSAR resistance

Last MACD 0 crossing: down
Last EMA alert arrow: -
Last DB attachment: 128.133
Fibo: green and up

Notes: DB and SAR are both attached to 128.133 with yellow dot line divergence

H1 chart:
ROMAR resistance
EMA resistance
Parabolic resistance

Last MACD 0 crossing: down
Last EMA alert arrow: down
Last DB attachment: 128.133
Fibo: green and up


Trade UP When: I am to much newbie to trade in counter-trend so I drop this option maybe wrong for my understanding.
Trade DOWN When: I will waiting for retrance to resistance on H2 to EMA or another resistance and then I will reevaluate the options to trade short. I will trade 20/40 for now. I suppose all 4 charts are in down trend and all of them are consistent for now, I am looking to trade short and with the trend…I am still learning so patience is my first skill to learn
  • #14,597
  • Nov 12, 2018 4:46pm Nov 12, 2018 4:46pm
Quoting timetolearn
{quote} Evaluation: Tp hit! I think it was very good trade because i realized that SAR attached EMA resistance on h4 and market hit strong resistances on h2 at the same time. I counted pips so my tp was safe. In my opinion, i took a short exactly in the moment and tp hit less than 4 hours. Best Regards Deha
OK Deha - from now on you post your Trading Plan ONLY. After you have executed your trade save it in file with your entry chart. When the trade is completed then you Post your execution chart showing the entry with your self-evaluation. Give a complete reasoning for your trade along with the rules applying to your entry. Do you understand what I am asking? You are still having problems with the rules.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #14,598
  • Nov 12, 2018 5:23pm Nov 12, 2018 5:23pm
DAILY TRADE JOURNAL: PARADOX

DAILY CHART - DATE:11/12/18
ROMAR:RESISTANCE
EMA:RESISTANCE
Parabolic:ELIMINATED

NOTES: Purple crossed over romar to the downside and white is above purple. The cross of purple under white eliminates the parabolic as support. Sar is support @ 128.322 also near 23.6 fib
4 HOUR CHART:

ROMAR: RESISTANCE

EMA:RESISTANCE

PARABOLIC:RESISTANCE

NOTES: All four horseman are down. Sar @ 127.649, 0 fib. White @ 23.6 fib also the same as daily sar and 23.6 fib.

2 HOUR CHART:

Opening:
ROMAR: RESISTANCE
EMA:RESISTANCE
Parabolic:RESISTANCE

NOTES: All 4 hoursemen are down, Ema and ma 20 are at the 23.6 fib also the daily sar resistance @ 128.32.

1 HOUR CHART:

ROMAR: RESISTANCE
EMA:RESISTANCE
Parabolic:RESISTANCE

Notes: The ma 20, 38.2 fib and the parabolic are all sitting near the 128.32 daily sar resistance.

Entry: With almost all of the areas pointing to a sell at the sar and 23.6 fib @ 128.32 I am looking at going short on the close of the 1 hour in this area for 40 pips down.
  • #14,599
  • Nov 12, 2018 9:31pm Nov 12, 2018 9:31pm
Quoting SuchParadox
EURJPY Date: 12/11/18 News: No Major news. Daily: ROMAR: Resistance EMA: Support PSAR: Support Checklist: Last MACD 0 crossing: up Lat EMA alert arrow: up (on Sunday bar) Last DB attachment: top 130.137 Fibo: green and up Notes: 4hm consolidating against Romar resistance, with purple crossing white down. 38.2 fibo holding support. We have both ema arrows consecutively as market ranges between 4hm and 38.2 fibo. Last DB attachment was just below the 61.8 fibo with magenta divergence. BB’s moving sideways. 4HR: ROMAR: Support EMA: Resistance PSAR:...
Evaluation: No trade was taken. Market didn’t reach my desired level of resistance for me to pull the trigger and I didn’t want to chase it. In this case best entry would have been ema resistance as market failed to close above it, however at the time h4 romar was still support, with h1 turning up giving conflicting information so market could have also continued up. I’m happy I waited for more confluences rather then chase the market as no trade is better than losing a trade. If anyone has anything else to add, feel free.
  • #14,600
  • Nov 12, 2018 9:58pm Nov 12, 2018 9:58pm
Quoting SuchParadox
{quote} Evaluation: No trade was taken. Market didn’t reach my desired level of resistance for me to pull the trigger and I didn’t want to chase it. In this case best entry would have been ema resistance as market failed to close above it, however at the time h4 romar was still support, with h1 turning up giving conflicting information so market could have also continued up. I’m happy I waited for more confluences rather then chase the market as no trade is better than losing a trade. If anyone has anything else to add, feel free.
Yes - I have a comment - you had a full blown downtrend when you made your posting with ROMAR as resistance across the board on all charts. The H4 ROMAR wasn't support at the time of your trading plan. It was at EMA crossing for resistance. So that excuse is out the window. And with the H2-H4 Parabolic's in full bloom on the downtrend was confluence with ROMAR. So you just sat there and watch the market move 160 pips of your trading plan. All you had to do was wait on the H1 for the Parabolic flip and then pull the trigger with confluence on the H1-H2 and the H4 with ROMAR and the Parabolic's. Excuses is not going to get it. Looking for the confluences is the only way to make it right. That is not chasing the market. That Trader; is call trading the Paradox.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
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