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  • #761
  • Nov 6, 2018 6:23am Nov 6, 2018 6:23am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2C4z_apu2I

interesting game, they pretty much simulated a free market.
  • #762
  • Nov 7, 2018 11:46pm Nov 7, 2018 11:46pm
Alright, part one of the plan is stable, my trading plan, this month's results are good.

Next, income investing as a monthly income generating machine. Which will be grown in size by the trading plan above.

According to vanguard, their yields can be around 2 to 3% annualised, for their bond etf, so meaning for 100k invested, I will get 3000 passive income every year. So the question how to work the all weather into it such that the largest amount is still bond/fixed income etf so that I can have all weather characteristics + monthly income.

So in this format, all you need is a 1 time investment, then you will rely purely on skill to gain capital appreciation. And the 2 portfolios can keep self feeding each other.
  • #763
  • Nov 8, 2018 4:59am Nov 8, 2018 4:59am
Alright, so next, how can I further improve my ability to feel the market? Hmm, will be exploring into this question next in order to improve my general ability to trade.
  • #764
  • Nov 8, 2018 5:06am Nov 8, 2018 5:06am
Quoting CookieMonsta
Alright, so next, how can I further improve my ability to feel the market? Hmm, will be exploring into this question next in order to improve my general ability to trade.
I am looking forward to this one my friend as feel can be so misleading and rigid - trying to lead too much i.e. fight market too and there are so many games going on. Also where the pool of orders may be has a lot to do with what is going on. How to bring it better together is question ... I will follow along with you if I may.


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #765
  • Nov 8, 2018 8:23pm Nov 8, 2018 8:23pm
Quoting alexandria
{quote} I am looking forward to this one my friend as feel can be so misleading and rigid - trying to lead too much i.e. fight market too and there are so many games going on. Also where the pool of orders may be has a lot to do with what is going on. How to bring it better together is question ... I will follow along with you if I may. Alex
Hi Alex, indeed, sometimes market can be misleading, but that's the function of the market, remember the story of the okefenofee swamp which fti taught us about? The crux to figuring this out, perhaps is to understand the misleading moves, what the market is trying to get at, then we may understand why they are doing it, then decipher the deception, hence understanding the intention of the trapper.

To most the story was of not being a pig, but there is a deeper one, the people in the tavern, do not seem to understand the trapper so they seem to ridicule him. So if you are a fellow trapper, how will you learn from him? That's the catch.

Do stay tuned I will be exploring this thinking process.
  • #766
  • Edited 11:07pm Nov 8, 2018 10:30pm | Edited 11:07pm
The few main market states.

Impulsive trend, slow trend, congestion, ranging, bottoming, topping. Then their mutation and flowing into and out of 1 of these states to another.

All leg swings will form into 1 of these broad overarching market terrain type, the key or catch is being able to manage trades as the leg swings form and show which state the market is in.

As the leg swings form, the market shows its intention, and when married with fundamental information or news events which may be coming up next, we may be able to decipher the intention of the market, what's are they attempting to do.

For example, Tuesday and Wednesday was the us congressional elections, and market had strong moves, then thursday was fomc, so from our understanding of current fundamentals, markets really nervous abt rates. What are markets likely to do? Well they are likely to stop hunt both sides and square down before fomc right? So if that's the case, the broadening formation may be in play, so if that's the case, managing may be into that while keeping an eye out for impulse.

Impulse in each stick helps show urgency and also form the leg range.

Hips and lops are fractal, so are timeframes, except there is no timeframe, but the volatility aspect of the candle stick. And the time scope aspect of the position you are managing and the volatility.

So the read tells us what terrain is likely, and the dance helps us direct our troops in handling terrain, and the flattening, being part of the not so standard strategy, helps us withstand volatility.
  • #767
  • Nov 9, 2018 12:49am Nov 9, 2018 12:49am
Now there is 1 additional thing I have yet to mention, that the flattening function can be used to handle stop hunting as well. It's different from placing a stoploss. In that if unwinded well, you could profit both sides, plus the extra exposure control in case where it isn't a stop hunt.
  • #768
  • Edited 4:38am Nov 9, 2018 3:53am | Edited 4:38am
Quoting CookieMonsta
The few main market states. Impulsive trend, slow trend, congestion, ranging, bottoming, topping. Then their mutation and flowing into and out of 1 of these states to another. All leg swings will form into 1 of these broad overarching market terrain type, the key or catch is being able to manage trades as the leg swings form and show which state the market is in. As the leg swings form, the market shows its intention, and when married with fundamental information or news events which may be coming up next, we may be able to decipher the intention...
But what do the terms mean to you? Do we all mean the same when we mean a trend? Is coiling in there - springs surprises so stay out or just scout with trend direction?

Which things are objective versus subjective? FTI said:

Don't think six sense, these things subjective.
Use clear objective thinking, and "feel her".

But we must be able to distinguish, objective bias from fixation errors.
More important , we must be able to tear from bias , when wrong, to do the right things to save book.

Without a scout to benchmark and point of reference, feeling her isn;t easy.becomes too subjective with emotional overplay. With a scout in , you would be able to feel better.
either you're on or totally out , if scout is "dead in waters".
At least the feel is objective.

For retail traders , I sometime wonder if is because they become too intellectual about what they do, that everything need make sense.

Trying to understand what he truly meant with "objective thinking and feel her" and "feel is objective" used to drive me a bit nuts trying to get it.

For me a trend must be objective either it is or isn't a trend - so what is your definition of one and when is it over.

So is the feel what you are discussing now - checking its volatility - is it slowing down/is it getting stronger/is it over strong - in the pullbacks are they suddenly much stronger so could we be exhausting? is my scout in the money or in trouble? Are pullbacks really weak so looking good for our trend?

Just my thoughts.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #769
  • Nov 9, 2018 6:18am Nov 9, 2018 6:18am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} But what do the terms mean to you? Do we all mean the same when we mean a trend? Is coiling in there - springs surprises so stay out or just scout with trend direction? Which things are objective versus subjective? FTI said: Don't think six sense, these things subjective. Use clear objective thinking, and "feel her". But we must be able to distinguish, objective bias from fixation errors. More important , we must be able to tear from bias , when wrong, to do the right things to save book. Without a scout to benchmark and point of reference,...
I will try my best to explain and it may take afew posts since I may not be able to fully explain the stuff offhand like that.

Also, do keep in mind this is my interpretation, and I'm also learning just like you guys, so there are bound to be some missing stuff that may be in my knowledge gap.

So addressing the objective Vs subjective if market kept hunting stops, is it likely to be a a top or bottom?

Answer is, depends on, how the hunting is done, if market hunts only top side stops, more chance of of down move, if market hunts downside stops only, more chance to be up move, if both side, it's can be up or down, or sideways, just that here and now I see a range with stop hunting. So suppose we see strong upwards impulse hunting downside stops, we can say, see, the charts show impulsive move of people buying and sellers or weak bulls getting trapped out, but right now, market is either accumulating or ranging and could move up, BUT if market hunts stops but then proceeds to go down, then my analysis is wrong.

Subjective bias means, market looks like it's congesting after a down swing, and I kept insisting it is a bottom and keep buying into it, thinking it is the bottom and that the market will go up, even into death battle scenario. I won't even consider that I can be wrong. (Crystal ball trading)
  • #770
  • Nov 9, 2018 6:28am Nov 9, 2018 6:28am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} But what do the terms mean to you? Do we all mean the same when we mean a trend? Is coiling in there - springs surprises so stay out or just scout with trend direction? Which things are objective versus subjective? FTI said: Don't think six sense, these things subjective. Use clear objective thinking, and "feel her". But we must be able to distinguish, objective bias from fixation errors. More important , we must be able to tear from bias , when wrong, to do the right things to save book. Without a scout to benchmark and point of reference,...
Yes, and not just from a subjective stand point but from a I can see that on the charts, this pullback swing seems to now encounter buying, possible that some bulls are appearing? If so maybe I'll put in a scout, let's see if they go sideways at least, ideally if they impulse strongly up by a strong stick, even better. But if they push below my entry, either I mistimed my entry or I'm wrong on trend. If so, I need to see if the next area where bulls are likely to enter are far away(Phil's highlighted zones is 1 way, identifying stop clusters is another way). If the move has sufficient impulse against me, perhaps I'm at ground zero of the trend change, if so, can I withstand the vols? If can't maybe I should flatten.

After I enter my position, seems like market keeps chopping, maybe the strong impulse was just a fakey, I can go long some more if it's so choppy, within means.

So that's how I think like to try to feel the charts.
  • #771
  • Nov 9, 2018 6:31am Nov 9, 2018 6:31am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} ........we see strong upwards impulse hunting downside stops, we can say, see, the charts show impulsive move of people buying and sellers or weak bulls getting trapped out,......
cheers - great to have such discussions.

In down trend that impulsive move up can also mean: let us buy at discount down here and sell at retail up there using those nice buy orders and down we go and anyone long well their sell stops will let me take profit. Can we know which is which? The trend is objective.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #772
  • Nov 9, 2018 6:38am Nov 9, 2018 6:38am
On terrain, and the meaning of trend, in truth, the best definition is the unclear ones, and just leave an impression on you that just feels like that, that's probably what fti is trying to convey.

Case in point, can a double bottom proceed to fall? Sure it can, its just when we see the possible double bottom form, there's no down swing, so we thought it was up. But when the downswing manifested, it then becomes a congestion breakout. So we recognise when it forms, but not try to impose what we think. Implying as market changes, we update what state we think the market is in and if market state is contrary to what our position is, and impulse is strong, perhaps it's best to flatten it or if not happy with position and with tolerance to cut, to take the loss in favour of better opportunities.
  • #773
  • Nov 9, 2018 7:00am Nov 9, 2018 7:00am
Quoting CookieMonsta
On terrain, and the meaning of trend, in truth, the best definition is the unclear ones, and just leave an impression on you that just feels like that, that's probably what fti is trying to convey. Case in point, can a double bottom proceed to fall? Sure it can, its just when we see the possible double bottom form, there's no down swing, so we thought it was up. But when the downswing manifested, it then becomes a congestion breakout. So we recognise when it forms, but not try to impose what we think. Implying as market changes, we update what state...

I think FTI can tell sometimes if mm hunting stops and this must be down to the volatility mm create when hunting stops. Do even mm always know if this is just a stop hunt or market is really going long - must be in how prices are being quoted and how price moves. Also a mm can have one idea and another may try to scupper it.



Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #774
  • Nov 9, 2018 7:11am Nov 9, 2018 7:11am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} cheers - great to have such discussions. In down trend that impulsive move up can also mean: let us buy at discount down here and sell at retail up there using those nice buy orders and down we go and anyone long well their sell stops will let me take profit. Can we know which is which? The trend is objective. Alex
Well, this is about of a subjective one, so I'll give you my take before delving into it. There are afew answers yes and no.

No in the sense that we can't know it like reading a crystal ball. As we mentioned just now, the forms mutate into each other hence, even if we read it now, the future may have news which just comes in a swing it the other way, hence no in the sense of crystal ball.

Yes in the sense that, if market pushes 100pips up, and pulls back 50pips, I'm inclined to think that the major leg is upwards, and if price swing down and goes 50pips down with average stick size smaller or same as average stick size of the up swing. only I'm wondering if it were a down move, whose selling? But sometimes we see that it's a 5min pullback on a up move, but yesterday market had a strong down swing impulsive and it seems, in this case it would be more of what you mentioned, selling into discount moves, so the analysis has to be fluid and always reanalyzing, spotting for possible market moves which may indicate sudden counter impulse moves.

Also the generic leg swings itself shows state of mind the bulls and bear are likely to be in, in the sense that we don't need to identify only the bulls or the bears, but what we need to do is to is to assess the market in general, and feel what might happen and see if there are signs in the markets showing us there is evidence of that happening.

So this brings us to the nature of terrain. The bullish impulsive moves which show a trend, the 2 sided type market, all of these are formed by legs, and in each leg is a leg range indicating volatility and pips moved, speed of market indicating impulse or urgency (may indicate it's ground zero of term trend change) and it shows the stronger side right now (if in rescue sometimes these can be good entries if strong enough), possible next stop clusters ( market may have impulsive climax which are actually extremely fast tops or bottoms into these). Each stick itself shows urgency and if each move is sustained or lacklustre for lack of a better word, like buyers buying up, but no sellers selling them down. Indicating perhaps sellers expect higher prices too. Or if market kept going up and down in low speed sticks, indicting a sleepy market, best to not enter with size since if big hands go in, we get caught out and it will be at the start of the move. If we market is coiling but each stick is the size of the range up and down, each stick is 10 to 15pips at least, big hands may be having a show hand with each other, you may want to skew down, be ready for both sides.

All these start from the sticks/leg analysis, as each leg is the building block of terrain, as each leg shows a possible change of terrain. So in truth trend means different things to different people.

Ponder upon this, fti once mentioned, that there is in truth no timeframe to the markets. And dealers manage it mark to now, implying that each chartay have a trend, but it's all from the left over volatility footprint of the previous move. So if the market is trending up now, and your position is in profits, although the weekly is in a strong down trend, would you be short? Perhaps you will if your management scope of on weekly charts, but if your primary analysis is on 5mins that's a huge no no right? Odds are you will have blown your money manage parameters if your mm spec is for 1hr or daily but you looking at weekly.
  • #775
  • Edited 8:36am Nov 9, 2018 7:14am | Edited 8:36am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} I think FTI can tell sometimes if mm hunting stops and this must be down to the volatility mm create when hunting stops. Do even mm always know if this is just a stop hunt or market is really going long - must be in how prices are being quoted and how price moves. Also a mm can have one idea and another may try to scupper it. Alex

Mm definitely usually know as they have the majority of order book and friends, so usually they are kept in the know and they can see names. But sometimes unexpected things can happen but they still have to continue quoting.

For retail like us, usually we can have good guesses, but we may never be 100% sure sort of a 75% accuracy rate.

Well ponder this, dealers mo is pump fast hit stops get rid of position right? They have target position sizing, so once they hit stops, they will square most and leave small boy ride, as seen by fti mo, how does this affect market? It pullback right?

More on later(post to be completed)

Cont here.

So when the markets pullback, pro traders dealers all reload and be ready to strike, right? So this you can see on the market price structure. First dealers are accumulating their position as market force them to be quoting, so they will try accumulate in conjunction with the major trend with respect to what they view the major trend is.

Otherwise they can dance both ways. But though they can see orders and guestimate each other ad have friends, they still cannot predict the major direction of the moves, fundamentals these are usually done by hedge funds, feds and others, so they know when there are stop hunts, but as for directional calls, they need wait for these big boys to come in. That's why sometimes you see a major term trend's start can be very violent, these dealers/mm also only caught on, their main stop hunt may have been 2 sides just dancing the range, so when market thins and they are caught, they will try turn with impulse. (Nick leeson movie, see his 2 subordinates doing the stop hunt in the pits).

If you watch the movie rogue trader, specifically the part where his 2 subordinates pulled a stop hunt of other dealers in the pits, then you will roughly be able to guess that's how they gyrate, and how they fool each other, initiate a fake down quote, trap people in, then bid it all up and yank the quoutes up.
  • #776
  • Nov 9, 2018 9:12am Nov 9, 2018 9:12am
the really tricky one is, timing a reversal for a rescue, especially if you are trading thinking that it is a pullback but then it manifested as a major term reversal and you are attempting to rescue, after flattening it.

also another matter is what if price action is like now, in which there are alot of cross current, and price action has some drift but it is extremely choppy.
  • #777
  • Nov 10, 2018 9:20pm Nov 10, 2018 9:20pm
please note, when using the flattening strategy, brokers matter, some brokers do not allow you to use the close by function, which in turn does not guarantee a price which you locked in and cost you both sides commissions/spreads where applies. also the implication is this, if you have to close both sides manually, it implies you need both sides to be liquid, implying a wide spread can cause margin calls.

so this strategy should only be used with brokers which allow for close by in mt4 function as, using the close by function, you do not pay the spread/commission unless you manually close both sides.
  • #778
  • Nov 11, 2018 6:09am Nov 11, 2018 6:09am
Quoting CookieMonsta
the really tricky one is, timing a reversal for a rescue, especially if you are trading thinking that it is a pullback but then it manifested as a major term reversal and you are attempting to rescue, after flattening it. also another matter is what if price action is like now, in which there are alot of cross current, and price action has some drift but it is extremely choppy.

.....if rescue against trend - need to pick terrain and can be only very fast in and out - but rescue into trend is generally easier


Alex.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #779
  • Nov 11, 2018 6:25am Nov 11, 2018 6:25am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Well, this is about of a subjective one, .......we can't know it like reading a crystal ball....... forms mutate into each other ........read it now....future may ...comes in a swing it the other way....if market pushes 100pips up, and pulls back 50pips, I'm inclined to think that the major leg is upwards......analysis has to be fluid and always reanalyzing, ...........feel what might happen and see if there are signs in the markets showing us there is evidence of that happening. So this brings us to the nature of terrain. .........in each...
We trade the future as best we can and react as best we can.

Friday eurusd several pushes down after run down but those pushes had big bears in them and yet were not really going anywhere + signs someone was buying + news due in afternoon - big guys needed to find someone to sell their euros to - and after news they hunted the ducks above 1.1350 - they kept pushing up and getting repulsed. We need to learn to interpret what is going on by feeling it but FTI is correct the feel is objective. Whatever we do it can still go pear shaped and then we must be ready.

Thanks for your discussion here... I am loving this topic.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #780
  • Nov 11, 2018 6:48am Nov 11, 2018 6:48am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} .....if rescue against trend - need to pick terrain and can be only very fast in and out - but rescue into trend is generally easier Alex.
well rescue definitely true, and that is the reason for the flattening in the first place, as the momentum against the position can be very strong, it is never good to open high exposures to strong momentum against us, notice i phrased it in the sense that im coming from the standpoint of being able to flatten position. primary reason is, thats part of the main reason why people get into the death battle situation, in that they were trapped by a major term trend change, but nobody can predict this can happen, so at least in my opinion, i take every push to have a possibility of doing that, hence im always tuning my position with respect to current momentum.

lets just say sometimes, market is relentless, the bounce back may only be 10% of original leg range, and if using a fibo skew, you will have had to either cut that rescue or enter another level, and usually such moves are very unforgiving.
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