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  • #8,341
  • Nov 4, 2018 1:57am Nov 4, 2018 1:57am
Quoting Victoria2017
Hi Strat and senior PASR students, Could you please comment on my analysis especially the SR level? Any words is highly appreciated. The thick line is the SR from W1 and the thin line is the SR from D1. I doubt about myself a lots during the analysis. I did it on Saturday then came back on Sunday with fresh eyes. However, the improvement for me is that I took less time for weekly analysis now. I have 18 pairs. It took me 7 hours last week but only 6 hours this week. The GBP/AUD is the pair I have a firm idea. I also consult GBP/USD and AUD/USD for...
Hi Victoria,

Here is my attempt to comment (also right after I think I learned something, so I could learnt something that is very wrong).

GBPAUD
BB
There is 3 things that convinced me that BB bullish power is not that strong.
1) The high of the Oct candle. It confluence with two monthly bounces on Apr2014 and Apr2016.
2) We are in the area where price wobbles in history.
3) If we take the concept of control candle and put it here, BEEB is actually in control right now. This does not means this pair is bearish, but to keep in mind that BEEB on May have not failed yet.
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B
I agree. That is Strat Sahdow, static SR and WCC low confluence.
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W
Some buyers did tries to protect BRN 1.8 I think. Whether it will be successful or not, I will wait for further PA. 200ema might help on supporting the price, all hell might break lose if it doesn't?
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GBPUSD
BB - Agree.
B - Agree. Feel like B try to argue with BB but failed.
W - Agree. Though it might be a bit late, I actually just figure out this is actually kind of testing the Shooting Star low of the BB. The big bounce on Thursday makes much more sense now.

AUDUSD
BB - Agree. However, it is close to a retest of BRN 0.7
B - Agree. Though a mickey mouse Hammer with BUEB is still under control of September 30 Bearish long candle.
W - Agree. A Basic PASR daily trade toward 0.705 is ok as well in my opinion.
  • #8,342
  • Nov 4, 2018 1:08am Nov 4, 2018 1:08am
Quoting SPATrading
USDJPY Daily BUEB Thank you Strat for this thread!!! I am looking at the daily BUEB. Good location with a confluence of the Strat shadow, a monthly and a weekly support levels. Big boss is in uptrend. Direct ahead there is a confluence of resistance levels however with enough room to bring my trade into break even. Your thoughts will be appreciated… {image}
Hi SPA

6 days week chart confused me abit over there. It just feel more like trading toward an SR for me. Just my personal opinion though. If you plan to take that trade on daily, where do you place your SL initially?

Quoting brian661
AUDJPY Monthly : After a few month consolidation and showing resistance at 200EMA, it continue the down trend Weekly : The price reached Weekly resistance Daily : A long pull back candle on resistance {image} {image} {image} I already enter a small position based on H1 BEEB last Friday. and is looking for add-on on H4 chart next week {image}
Hi brain,

Agreed with your analysis. Just curious, are you actually planning to look for 5TF confluences on H1?
  • #8,343
  • Edited 4:55am Nov 4, 2018 1:52am | Edited 4:55am
Quoting MikuSS
{quote} Hi Spa, Wow your first post and already asking Strat for his opinion of your trade? Perhaps a simple introduction of yourself would be nice. Are you aware of the Weekly Control Candle that is still in check? ...with enough room to break even... Do you mind explaining what you meant by this? The Big Boss, Boss and Worker are now in harmony, with nice bullish candles on the Boss and Worker. The low if the candle on the Big Boss has not been taken out, so the upswing is still valid. I will exercise caution, because Risk:Reward is still not...
Thanks MikuSS & huatzhi for your feedback. I have been reading this thread for the last 3 months and I find it very useful. Yes, I am aware of the Weekly Controlling Candle. As all the technical facts based on PASR indicating that if price breakthrough the daily BUEB with the right momentum then the probability that price will flirt with the resistance level direct ahead is more-likely to happen than the opposite. My plan is to place conservatively 3 equal buy stops above the high and the relevant stops below the low. (3 x 0.1 lot). When and if price reach the resistance I will close 2 of the positions and take the remaining position to break even. This is a conservative scenario that I am thinking.

The 6 day week chart surprised me, too. I think it appeared due to the time change.

The second scenario in my mind is to take a calculated risk and trade the setup aggressively on a potential (direct retrace) on the level I marked in the chart. Meaning that I am planning to drop down to the 1H waiting to see PASR. This scenario will reduce my calculated risk but there is the possibility that price will never confirm the daily BUEB. In the second scenario my position size will be 1/3 of the conservative scenario and adding when and if price confirms the BUEB. In both cases I accepted my risk since I know very well that price always does whatever she wants.
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Every so often wrong and sometimes right but always honest. MV
  • #8,344
  • Nov 4, 2018 3:16am Nov 4, 2018 3:16am
Quoting huatzhi
{quote} Hi Victoria, Here is my attempt to comment (also right after I think I learned something, so I could learnt something that is very wrong). GBPAUD BB There is 3 things that convinced me that BB bullish power is not that strong. 1) The high of the Oct candle. It confluence with two monthly bounces on Apr2014 and Apr2016. 2) We are in the area where price wobbles in history. 3) If we take the concept of control candle and put it here, BEEB is actually in control right now. This does not means this pair is bearish, but to keep in mind that BEEB...
Thanks huatzhi,
I really like your posts. Your analysis of GBP/CAD on 1st Nov. helped with my SR. I adjusted it according to your TP2 level.

For GBP/AUD, thanks for pointing out that the price is in the historical cluster area. I will be more careful when I take a trade.
The reason I am bullish in the Big Boss Time Frame of GBP/AUD is that the lows and highs on the last three candles (8,9,10) are gradually higher. It seems buyers have more power to push price up.
It seems two students have different opinions. Let's see what Strat will say.
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We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are.
  • #8,345
  • Edited 5:56pm Nov 4, 2018 3:34am | Edited 5:56pm
Quoting brian661
AUDJPY Monthly : After a few month consolidation and showing resistance at 200EMA, it continue the down trend Weekly : The price reached Weekly resistance Daily : A long pull back candle on resistance {image} {image} {image} I already enter a small position based on H1 BEEB last Friday. and is looking for add-on on H4 chart next week {image}
brian

Boss
Though the price reached resistance, there isn't a PA which said to sell. we trade PASR not SR lines.
More important is that last candle is big bull candle and confirm the Swing Low.

Sorry I am not at the front of computer and can't post a pic.

Regards

Cj
Don't Rush Things, Be PATIENT and Wait For the Best Trade Setup
  • #8,346
  • Nov 4, 2018 3:50am Nov 4, 2018 3:50am
Hi Strat & fellow traders
I accidentally found your thread watched FF calendar few days ago, I started to read and it seems very interesting to me. (joined to FF in 2013 but never participate in any thread as I traded stocks…not know even how to post on thread)
I started to trade part time in 2013 with stocks, lost a lot, than move to options and gave part of account to trade one trader in London (advertised by option broker) what reversed to a catastrophe…..need a lot of time to recover my psiho…
….at the begining (2013) started to trade just momentum, without knowledge and you can imagine… than started to study and trade supply & demand (I was a member of private forum and also follow another guy he taught always contrarian to all other technical analysis and skip S&R as they are part of classical technical analysis and are useless) but it appeared to me to be counter trend always and I was not successful….. Also had problems with trading discipline and emotions…
I think to trade forex now cause of tax benefits in my country. Started reading your thread few days ago found many interesting things here, especially reading the trend, reading PA, the importance od S&R, time frames….and a lot about emotions in trading which I found it as hardest part of this bussines. I am not sure if I can manage this but I am asking to alow me to participate in your thread and to try again for better trading in the future
Igor
  • #8,347
  • Nov 4, 2018 4:46am Nov 4, 2018 4:46am
Hi guys

Ignoring the Friday candle, how would you trade the Thursday BEEB on daily chart? Or don't?

If I want to trade this, my SL would be far away, so I am waiting for price retest on Strat Shadow.
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  • #8,348
  • Nov 4, 2018 5:00am Nov 4, 2018 5:00am
Quoting huatzhi
Hi guys Ignoring the Friday candle, how would you trade the Thursday BEEB on daily chart? Or don't? If I want to trade this, my SL would be far away, so I am waiting for price retest on Strat Shadow. {image}
Hi Huatzhi,

I believe you missed a Support and Resistance zone on your chart. Check your Boss and Big Boss. On mine, I have Price sitting on support.

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Even if you did not have a line there, I believe the smart thing to do would be to exercise patience and wait for retouch and enter on pullback.
  • #8,349
  • Edited 7:57am Nov 4, 2018 5:06am | Edited 7:57am
Quoting Victoria2017
{quote} Thanks huatzhi, I really like your posts. Your analysis of GBP/CAD on 1st Nov. helped with my SR. I adjusted it according to your TP2 level. For GBP/AUD, thanks for pointing out that the price is in the historical cluster area. I will be more careful when I take a trade. The reason I am bullish in the Big Boss Time Frame of GBP/AUD is that the lows and highs on the last three candles (8,9,10) are gradually higher. It seems buyers have more power to push price up. It seems two students have different opinions. Let's see what Strat will say....
GBPAUD - Hautzhi and Victoria. Just my thoughts..

1. 3 candles ahead of candle 1 signify a forthcoming move. I think price was been bought up to 1.74 and slipped past to sub 1.73. The area between 1.78 and 1.73 has been a buying zone building up orders. Candle 1 sets our move and a target zone higher.

2. Clear support for the move with an available order book for the sell side, our buyer takes all orders and continues to buy. This confirms there are buyers above 1.80

3. Sell off but this stops right on our open candle of 2. What does this mean?The following week we gap up on the open. We have selling and buying during this week, this is an accumulation of orders.

4. There were no sellers the previous week. The profit taking of candle 3 has reloaded our buyers book. Stops are taken out at 1.8260 and 1.85. Selling begins at 1.86 after the late market and smaller players continues buying.

We've since had a month of selling and are now back in an interesting place of support

Boss Chart

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Worker Chart

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Are the big players using fib points for a measured move? I don't know but I tend to look at 50% points for confluence and we appear to have PASR confluence in this area.

My question to myself is, where are the sellers and buyers now? More importantly where is that BIG seller and BIG buyer after both of his targets have been accomplished?

Big Boss - An active month for this pair

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Private Msgs are turned off to weirdos, loafs and brain drainers
  • #8,350
  • Nov 4, 2018 5:15am Nov 4, 2018 5:15am
Quoting brian661
AUDJPY Monthly : After a few month consolidation and showing resistance at 200EMA, it continue the down trend Weekly : The price reached Weekly resistance Daily : A long pull back candle on resistance {image} {image} {image} I already enter a small position based on H1 BEEB last Friday. and is looking for add-on on H4 chart next week {image}
Hi Brian,

Good job for spotting the Resistance line on the Weekly chart! However, for H1 trade, Big Boss is Daily and Boss is H4.

1st question, are you trading Swing PASR or Trend PASR?

Your entry is based on H1, so why did you enter it a few hours before Friday close? It is obviously a short-term trade. Have you ever encountered gaps on Monday open after the weekend?

However, from your explanation, it seems like you are trying to evolve the trade into a long-term one. There is no trend yet, so Trend PASR is obviously too risky. Swing PASR? Possible, but please monitor your trade well.

It could happen, but please exercise caution. Boss is now on an upswing, and there is still potential to the upside with . The candles you saw on Friday's close are probably profit taking before the weekend.

Regards,
Miku
  • #8,351
  • Nov 4, 2018 5:36am Nov 4, 2018 5:36am
Quoting huatzhi
Hi guys Ignoring the Friday candle, how would you trade the Thursday BEEB on daily chart? Or don't? If I want to trade this, my SL would be far away, so I am waiting for price retest on Strat Shadow. {image}
Hi Huatzhi,

Well here's my opinion although I am new to PASR but not new to trading.

Big Boss & Boss are both in a downtrend. Worker is approaching support and your stop loss would be rather large after the 11/01 candle. My plan is to wait for a pullback and if I get a PA candle go short.

Chris
Successful people do what unsuccessful people are not willing to do
  • #8,352
  • Nov 4, 2018 5:51am Nov 4, 2018 5:51am
Quoting BeyondTheSea
{quote} GBPAUD - Hautzhi and Victoria. Just my thoughts.. 1. 3 candles ahead of candle 1 signify a forthcoming move. I think price was been bought up to 1.74 and slipped past to sub 1.73. The area between 1.78 and 1.73 has been a buying zone building up orders. Candle 1 sets our move and a target zone higher. 2. Clear support for the move with an available order book for the sell side, our buyer takes all orders and continues to buy. This confirms there are buyers above 1.80 3. Sell off but this stops right on our open candle of 2. What does this...
Hi everyone,

I agree with BTS, it seems like Price is back at equilibrium for GBPAUD. Perhaps this is the reason why we see so many conflicting views on this pair.

Big Boss: The October doji (not a shooting star!) is 'meh'. Not even having a good amount of space to the left. Futhermore, the Big Boss trend is still on the upside as there is still no confirmed LH yet.
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Boss: Nice analysis BTS! One thing I might add is that the candle closed as a doji, signifying indecision. Price is also currently supported by Strat Shadow.
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Worker: After the intense sell down to 200ema, Price has stalled around 1.8RN. Just like Big Boss and Boss, I see indecision on the worker with Thursday and Friday's candle as dojis.
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In conclusion, there are no signals to buy or sell yet. Let us exercise patience and wait for the Big Boys to lead the way.
  • #8,353
  • Nov 4, 2018 5:52am Nov 4, 2018 5:52am
Quoting MikuSS
{quote} Hi Tampa, Perhaps I can reply to your queries. First off M5 is a fast mover for multiple pairs. This tells me that you do not understand PASR enough. In fact, Strat posted a few days ago that M1 will feel slow once you get the hang of Trend PASR. Learn and observe how Price behaves around the Strat Shadow, with confirmed Swing lows and highs. I took too may trades during this session... I had a few distractions which impacted one entry and caused me to miss another. No doubt about it. You are trying to ride a unicycle down a tightrope when...
Hi MikuSS,

Thanks for the reply see attached responses..


First off M5 is a fast mover for multiple pairs.
This tells me that you do not understand PASR enough. In fact, Strat posted a few days ago that M1 will feel slow once you get the hang of Trend PASR. Learn and observe how Price behaves around the Strat Shadow, with confirmed Swing lows and highs.

I beleive this was taken out of context. I was referring to trading several pairs on M5 which was a mistake on my part. Trading 20 pairs gives you just over 10 seconds per chart before the next candle. I have traded M1 in the past on two pairs and it is manageable. It was definitely a learning experience on my part and I will have to narrow list down and/or switch to M15.

I took too may trades during this session... I had a few distractions which impacted one entry and caused me to miss another.
No doubt about it. You are trying to ride a unicycle down a tightrope when you can't even cycle.

Agreed - My thought process was to focus on as many setups as possible. Again a learning experience.

This weekend I plan on reviewing my initial stop-loss, when to exit early versus my initial stop-loss, and realistic take profits.
I was planning to comment on your charts, but it will be better for you to do it yourself instead. Some of your trades seem totally random (like buying on a pullback with unconfirmed candlesticks), as well as entering on wrong candles.

In addition to putting in the add-on entries and exit(s) on your charts, please tell us what you did wrongly (or correctly) for each of your trade.

I will attach notes on the charts when I have time as I normally do that anyway. None of the trades should have been "random" (unless I made a mistake), although a few were late, and I entered at where my entry should have been. That is one of my techniques not part of PASR.

Still debating M5 trading as I am not available every day to trade. I may also look at M15 as I did that timeframe in the past on 10 pairs.

Thanks again for your reply!
Successful people do what unsuccessful people are not willing to do
  • #8,354
  • Nov 4, 2018 5:56am Nov 4, 2018 5:56am
Quoting MikuSS
{quote} Hi Tampa, Perhaps I can answer this as well, Strat and the others can correct me if I made any mistake. There are 3 kinds of PASR: Basic PASR, Swing PASR and Trend PASR. Basic PASR is trading from one Support/Resistance line to another Support Resistance line. R:R is measured before entry and is only made when acceptable. No add-ons. Swing PASR and Boss Swing means the same, and is simply waiting for confluence of Big Boss and Boss (and entering the trade on the Worker) and riding the momentum. We take profit when primary trend changes....
Thanks again MikuSS - Yes I need more clarification on this. Based on several posts I feel the Swing and Boss Swing are different. Hopefully Strat can give us a quick summary of each.

Chris
Successful people do what unsuccessful people are not willing to do
  • #8,355
  • Edited 6:15am Nov 4, 2018 6:01am | Edited 6:15am
Quoting huatzhi
{quote} Hi Miku and Tampa, I will point out a couple things that I understand differently compare to yours. Basic and Classic PASR seems to refer to two different entry types. The trades that refer to as Basic PASR by Strat are mostly those entry in confluence with Strat Shadow toward the next SR. Classic PASR often entry from a strong SR (often carry down from higher TF) toward the next SR. This understanding can sort of being backed with Strat referring Svolacius' #6218 trade as CLASSIC Basic PASR. I think it means this is the entry that confluence...
Thanks Huatzhi!

The posts your mentioned are in line with my understanding so far and I am also interested in the Daily timeframe.

That brings up another area on confusion - If someone is trading the Daily "Worker" why are they posting Big Boss "Monthly" charts? I would agree if they all align that would be favorable but does it really matter per our rules?

"The Path" - The Daily is governed or controlled by the Weekly, which we call the BOSS. As long as we only trade from the Daily, then these two are all we really need. We can look at the Monthly for a longer, further out view, but as regards our trading decisions on the Daily, since the Monthly is two time frames higher (and controls the Weekly), we can disregard this.

Chris
Successful people do what unsuccessful people are not willing to do
  • #8,356
  • Edited 7:39am Nov 4, 2018 7:05am | Edited 7:39am
Quoting BeyondTheSea
{quote} GBPAUD - Hautzhi and Victoria. Just my thoughts.. 1. 3 candles ahead of candle 1 signify a forthcoming move. I think price was been bought up to 1.74 and slipped past to sub 1.73. The area between 1.78 and 1.73 has been a buying zone building up orders. Candle 1 sets our move and a target zone higher. 2. Clear support for the move with an available order book for the sell side, our buyer takes all orders and continues to buy. This confirms there are buyers above 1.80 3. Sell off but this stops right on our open candle of 2. What does this...
Hi BeyondTheSea,
Great analysis! That gives me an example of how to read the candles.
From your worker's chart, I found I missed out the close of 21st September candle. It (1.794ish) is the similar level with the low of last two candles. Buyers must be sensitive with this price level.
About your question, I don't know what is in GBP side.
For AUD, the recent new home approval is lower than before, my friend who works in the biggest construction company in our state told me their business is not good; A person who is very familiar with mining industry statewide told me the industry is still not recovered; the CPI data hasn't met forecast for seven months. The only positive data is trade balance.
I am not very positive with AUD personally.
We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are.
  • #8,357
  • Nov 4, 2018 7:43am Nov 4, 2018 7:43am
Quoting Victoria2017
Hi Strat and senior PASR students, Could you please comment on my analysis especially the SR level? Any words is highly appreciated. The thick line is the SR from W1 and the thin line is the SR from D1. I doubt about myself a lots during the analysis. I did it on Saturday then came back on Sunday with fresh eyes. However, the improvement for me is that I took less time for weekly analysis now. I have 18 pairs. It took me 7 hours last week but only 6 hours this week. The GBP/AUD is the pair I have a firm idea. I also consult GBP/USD and AUD/USD for...
Comments on GBPAUD:
BB is up as you state.
Boss is currently in down swing although within a WCC that price was not able to close below this week. I see the support as the area marked rather than the one line you have on your charts. Price has found support in this area at the top of the shadow and BRN 1.8000.
Worker price closed below the shadow and it is now acting as resistance. Price has been unable to close below the low of this week's BEEB but did make a new low. Once price pushed back up after this candle the last two days of the week showed little interest in moving price away from the BRN.
So at this level we need to be patient and wait for the Big Boys to show their hand.
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  • #8,358
  • Nov 4, 2018 7:44am Nov 4, 2018 7:44am
Quoting Victoria2017
{quote} Hi BeyondTheSea, Great analysis! That gives me an example of how to read the candles. From your worker's chart, I found I missed out the close of 21st September candle. It (1.794ish) is similar level of the low of last two candles. Buyers must be sensitive with this price level. About your question, I don't know what is in GBP side. For AUD, the recent new home approval is lower than before, my friend who works in the biggest construction company in our state told me their business is not good; A person who is very familiar with mining industry...
Thanks Victoria

It's only my own view and we each have different ones. I'm studying candles and PASR more than I am trading at the moment so I can't comment if it is good analysis or not for now..

Regards to GBP overall the economy is doing well. With Brexit over next year (and we will survive despite what the Press keep saying) interest rates are set to rise in the coming months/years. There is however heavy consumer lending again which is a concern given that true employment is sliding again but masked by temporary jobs.

What the press don't talk about is the economic cold war between the UK and the EU which will rumble on for years. This said London is still and likely to remain the power of global economies. 5 TRILLION is traded every but the EU probably do not want London to handle 90% of their FX booking so we'll see.

I have no doubt the politicians will make a dogs dinner of it all!
Private Msgs are turned off to weirdos, loafs and brain drainers
  • #8,359
  • Edited 8:13am Nov 4, 2018 8:02am | Edited 8:13am
Quoting MikuSS
{quote} Hi Huatzhi, I believe you missed a Support and Resistance zone on your chart. Check your Boss and Big Boss. On mine, I have Price sitting on support. {image} Even if you did not have a line there, I believe the smart thing to do would be to exercise patience and wait for retouch and enter on pullback.
Thanks for reminding me Miku. Though I actually deleted that line when I redraw my SR because that is not relevant to my question/current price action.

Quoting Victoria2017
{quote} Hi BeyondTheSea, Great analysis! That gives me an example of how to read the candles. From your worker's chart, I found I missed out the close of 21st September candle. It (1.794ish) is similar level of the low of last two candles. Buyers must be sensitive with this price level. About your question, I don't know what is in GBP side. For AUD, the recent new home approval is lower than before, my friend who works in the biggest construction company in our state told me their business is not good; A person who is very familiar with mining industry...
Just clarify myself abit, I did not stand it is going to be bearish. It just not as decisively bullish as you had presented. Especially after that hammer-ish candle on August, I will say its somewhat bullish (its the latest PA compare to the BEEB). Like every other times when price is unclear, futher PA required.

Quoting TampaFX
{quote} Thanks Huatzhi! The posts your mentioned are in line with my understanding so far and I am also interested in the Daily timeframe. That brings up another area on confusion - If someone is trading the Daily "Worker" why are they posting Big Boss "Monthly" charts? I would agree if they all align that would be favorable but does it really matter per our rules? "The Path" - The Daily is governed or controlled by the Weekly, which we call the BOSS. As long as we only trade from the Daily, then these two are all we really need. We can look at...
Nice spot. Geez I don't remember that, might need to restart my path. Now, go look for The Power of Time Frames on old posts as well, then you will understand it!!

Just kidding... Kidding aside, you probably may want to do that as well. (Personally I think those posts only give me a basic idea that don't really clear my doubt until #8011 kicked in).

Basically, when BB contradict with B, most of the time, BB would win. That is what happened lately on GBPUSD. B was in a down swing with a long bearish momentum bar, hitting the floor of the Hammer of BB. With only boss, we might just see a sudden change of direction after a strong bearish candle (ok, may be sees the SR). With the help of BB, we get the full picture why it could be bullish. When B align with BB, and W align with B, then we can get the safest trade possible. It is mainly about stress free.

As usual, my explanation could be wrong though.
  • #8,360
  • Nov 4, 2018 8:03am Nov 4, 2018 8:03am
Anyone know what happen to Grimweasel? After reading about his success in the old thread I'm surprised he is off this thread.
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Successful people do what unsuccessful people are not willing to do
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