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How to predict markets, Catch the moves at value

  • #3,881
  • Nov 2, 2018 12:09pm Nov 2, 2018 12:09pm
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Notice today's high.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #3,882
  • Nov 3, 2018 12:45am Nov 3, 2018 12:45am
Thank you Dennis for your efforts on this thread in making us understand how the markets work.
Basically it's about trading levels in a vertical market as against the horizontal market we are used to seeing. We have dealt with the following levels among others as reference points for trading: initial balance;
central pivot range
nfp/fomc;
floor pivots;
open/close price;
high/low;
adr;
fibos;
marking significant levels from higher time frame and then going down to a lower time frame to take trades;
importance of closed price above a significant level;
200sma as reference points for fibos;
thursday and tuesday lows as weekly support and resistance;
market algorithmic black boxes (blocks) that does sweeping;
and others.
my question is this:
is there a way of knowing with a reasonable level of probability which level is of relevance at any particular time.
it is easy to see after the move because at any point in time there is always a level from which a move originated. even talking about higher time frame superiority, sometimes a move will not start until it gets to a higher time frame pivot level and at other times it will start before getting to the higher time frame pivot levels.
it sometimes feels overwhelming or am I the one who is not just getting it.
your kind clarification will be much appreciated.
  • #3,883
  • Nov 3, 2018 12:16pm Nov 3, 2018 12:16pm
Quoting ayoayo
Thank you Dennis for your efforts on this thread in making us understand how the markets work. Basically it's about trading levels in a vertical market as against the horizontal market we are used to seeing. We have dealt with the following levels among others as reference points for trading: initial balance; central pivot range nfp/fomc; floor pivots; open/close price; high/low; adr; fibos; marking significant levels from higher time frame and then going down to a lower time frame to take trades; importance of closed price above a significant level;...

Yes....with 99 percent accuracy that we teach at 240.
Still in Effect dont forget it! Know your market Cycles
240trade.com
Published by Dennis Sherman · September 30 ·
Pre-Market Technical Analysis USD/JPY September 30, 2018
The same Technical Analysis from last week still in Effect within the bullets under September 28,2018 T/A
One should expect a significant Gap open this morning! there has been weighted expansion with limited compression and this is evident at a Target 2 close 113 80..
Be reminded that any break below 113.30 could bring in a significant sell of as the past 6 months has shown weakness for this pair to Trade above 113 Handle. If Bulls Fail to defend 113.30 and we break 112.80 then Bears will find Significant traction which opens up potential for a retest of 112. The longer-term Supports are 108 80 110 30. The below T/A is still in effect. Bulls will look to defend 113.50 113.30 on Monday.
Levels still in Effect as below:
Technical Analysis USD/JPY September 28, 2018
USD JPY remains on track for key targets as mentioned earlier this week therefore no net change
However we have been able to stretch to Target 2. Currently 113.50 was yesterday’s high and Bears probe for weakness However Bulls remain solidly in control.
And those targets still in effect are as follows:
Support at 113.30 due for a retest 113. 30 if key high fails as support 113.50. Key Supports and resistance as follows:
Bulls will defend! 113.30, 113.50 and 113.80. Above 113 80 we have a chance to fill the gap to 114.50 and that would allow a reasonable opportunity to trade higher to 115 handle. Above 115 longer term 118.00 is in the sights of the bulls.
Key supports intra-day remain 113.30 113.00 112.80 and 112.70. Bears gain power below 112 half.
Have a great day and trade well.
  • #3,884
  • Nov 3, 2018 12:20pm Nov 3, 2018 12:20pm
if you dig deeper into testimonials from members, there's ton thats just a sample below, you will be surprised at where they lead, Some you will find are
top hedge fund managers known to the planet
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  • #3,885
  • Nov 3, 2018 12:24pm Nov 3, 2018 12:24pm
First post on this thread!

Around 16 years ago one of my friends told me about trading and that captured my interest so I started on demos clean charts and did reasonably well for about a year then I opened my first account with 10 k. I figured thats it I will be self-employed and my life will be awesome. Things did not work out that way.

My first mistake was that I thought I could be self- employed on a 10 k account. My second mistake was thinking that 1 lot is ok leverage on 10 k.
Well it is not ok!

Things went reasonably well for about 3 month of trading live then 1 lot leverage showed me how quickly you can be down $ 500 usd and more some.
So things started to look a little bit bad but not so bad but bad enough for me to look for some bling in my trading. What I found on-line seemed like some good stuff. But on reflection I am sure some marketer just comes up with these silly trade ideas.

From Clean charts I went to a dump truck. RSI/Stochastic/ Mac D/SMAs yes you guessed it, all those things traders dont use but are popular with Technical analysists to make their PDF reports look fancy on Mondays minutes of the meeting with the floor traders.

About 2 years past and not going anywhere with my trading account which moved from 10k to 16 k and at the end of the 2nd year was down to 3 k. I never made any withdrawals! if I had I would have been out sooner.

So in 2003 I realized I am not ready to be a self-employed trader so find a job before the street takeover. I was lucky, I found a job and slipped back into the 9 to 5 to survive. Survive I did with a Department of Defense (DOD) posting to Camp Liberty in Iraq. And that brought the money in. And money buys time to study your disciplines and trade live in the evenings.

You can make money and this thread will take you into a better level of Trading and you may choose to trade as a full time career or which is possible or work and Trade which is possible to. As Trading once experienced can be limited to a few hours a day.

The above is a summary of my background and offcourse not all inclusive and because no need.

Moving forward I will share what I do and how I do it. How I make it work and what I do when it doesn't work.

Hope this will be fun for everyone and fun comes with benefits...

"You can be wrong now but right later on, depends of your view of time"

Will pace in to this, definitely we will not run Regards Dennis

And there I was Camp Victory Iraq 2003
  • #3,886
  • Nov 3, 2018 2:47pm Nov 3, 2018 2:47pm
Clue 10 year T notes -
  • #3,887
  • Nov 3, 2018 2:57pm Nov 3, 2018 2:57pm
Executions NFP long UJ
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  • #3,888
  • Nov 3, 2018 2:58pm Nov 3, 2018 2:58pm
Quoting Dennis1468
Executions NFP long UJ {image}
Dennis Sherman









September 26 ·









Technical Analysis USD/JPY September 26, 2018
USD JPY is due for a retest 113 handle this morning and if this breaks up above then the key levels to watch for acceptance are 113.30, 113.50 and 113.80. Above 113 80 we have a chance to fill the gap to 114.50 and that would allow a reasonable opportunity to trade higher to 115 handle. Above 115 longer term 118.00 is in the sights of the bulls.
Key supports intraday remain 112.80 and 112.70. Bears gain power below 112 half.
Have a great day and trade well.
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  • #3,889
  • Nov 3, 2018 3:07pm Nov 3, 2018 3:07pm
This will help you............................................................


Inserted Video
  • #3,890
  • Nov 3, 2018 3:15pm Nov 3, 2018 3:15pm
Quoting Dennis1468
This will help you............................................................ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpptIJCPFMU

Most people think of cycles in terms of a series of events. And most people understand that these events regularly follow each other in a usual sequence: upswings are followed by downswings, and then eventually by new upswings. But to have a full understanding of cycles, that’s not enough. The events in the life of a cycle shouldn’t be viewed merely as each being followed by the next, but—much more importantly—as each causing the next.

Quote - Howard Marks
  • #3,891
  • Nov 3, 2018 3:27pm Nov 3, 2018 3:27pm
From yonks ago............................Market Cycles Start with the 200 SMA
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  • #3,892
  • Nov 3, 2018 3:38pm Nov 3, 2018 3:38pm
Quoting Dennis1468
From yonks ago............................Market Cycles Start with the 200 SMA {image}
I take no credit for anything i share here, at 240 this is all trade basic shared in this thread and all threads, which is = to mastery in any other group in the world, not us this is trade basic
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  • #3,893
  • Nov 3, 2018 3:42pm Nov 3, 2018 3:42pm
imagine u ran a loss, you wait and 2 weeks later it comes back to profit. You don't close then next thing its back in the loss for 2 weeks, Th 3rd time it comes back you leave it and don't take profit. It goes back to loss and gaps down further and does not come back to profit for 3 months. you hold and then the same thing happens in reverse. So you wait 3 months and 4 weeks and your rich, from the gap up - Market Cycles
  • #3,894
  • Nov 3, 2018 10:02pm Nov 3, 2018 10:02pm
Quoting Dennis1468
...
Hi Dennis,

This thread is filled with valuable information. Appreciate that!

If I can draw your attention to Initial Balance once again. Trying to apply it to US500 (/ES) in its 'purest' form. There are a couple of definitions in the thread.
One guy quoted a book, claiming it is High to Low of the first H1 candle. Another definition is US Open to US Close (Open of the first candle and Close of the previous candle) as on the graph (broker time GMT+5, does not print the bar between NY Close and Open so there is a gap). Which one is the "pure of the purest"?

Thank you for your time and effort!
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Buy low, sell high.
  • #3,895
  • Nov 4, 2018 6:55am Nov 4, 2018 6:55am
Quoting HappyMan
{quote} Hi Dennis, This thread is filled with valuable information. Appreciate that! If I can draw your attention to Initial Balance once again. Trying to apply it to US500 (/ES) in its 'purest' form. There are a couple of definitions in the thread. One guy quoted a book, claiming it is High to Low of the first H1 candle. Another definition is US Open to US Close (Open of the first candle and Close of the previous candle) as on the graph (broker time GMT+5, does not print the bar between NY Close and Open so there is a gap). Which one is the "pure...
IB IR is great value all sessions , The UK is the most interesting one as before there physical open there Algos trade balance sheets with Asia. Thats an amazing time to nail physical open. Refer to last time USD JPY hit a low 110 40 and we bought at 110 50 and now we here at 113
. Dial back on ur charts mark the actual physical London open at those price tags. Then take note of the 2 hour play by play pre london. London Algoes matching tickets
  • #3,896
  • Nov 4, 2018 7:06am Nov 4, 2018 7:06am
Quoting Dennis1468
{quote} IB IR is great value all sessions , The UK is the most interesting one as before there physical open there Algos trade balance sheets with Asia. Thats an amazing time to nail physical open. Refer to last time USD JPY hit a low 110 40 and we bought at 110 50 and now we here at 113 . Dial back on ur charts mark the actual physical London open at those price tags. Then take note of the 2 hour play by play pre london. London Algoes matching tickets

yellow box are those levels london
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  • #3,897
  • Nov 4, 2018 7:13am Nov 4, 2018 7:13am
Quoting TooSlow
{image} Notice today's high.
Hi TooSlow,

When you have time, can you please attend to my post earlier

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post11651165

Thank you!
Buy low, sell high.
  • #3,898
  • Edited 10:56am Nov 4, 2018 7:32am | Edited 10:56am
Quoting Dennis1468
{quote} IB IR is great value all sessions , The UK is the most interesting one as before there physical open there Algos trade balance sheets with Asia. Thats an amazing time to nail physical open. Refer to last time USD JPY hit a low 110 40 and we bought at 110 50 and now we here at 113 . Dial back on ur charts mark the actual physical London open at those price tags. Then take note of the 2 hour play by play pre london. London Algoes matching tickets
First of all, appreciate your patience and all the knowledge that you bestow on readers of this thread. On page 60 and take extensive notes.

Timing H1 candles is a great topic. Several of them are gaining importance in the Wick camp: market open, day start, mid-market flip. There are two camps: pre- and post- hour. Each has its followers.

Like your idea on UJ. Is this the place and candles that you referred? 2 hour pre-London play that is eight bars on 15M charts. That's what you watch these days?

Also, do you trade futures?
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Buy low, sell high.
  • #3,899
  • Nov 4, 2018 2:40pm Nov 4, 2018 2:40pm
Quoting HappyMan
{quote} First of all, appreciate your patience and all the knowledge that you bestow on readers of this thread. On page 60 and take extensive notes. Timing H1 candles is a great topic. Several of them are gaining importance in the Wick camp: market open, day start, mid-market flip. There are two camps: pre- and post- hour. Each has its followers. Like your idea on UJ. Is this the place and candles that you referred? 2 hour pre-London play that is eight bars on 15M charts. That's what you watch these days? Also, do you trade futures? {image}
Painted over your chart
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  • #3,900
  • Nov 5, 2018 2:12am Nov 5, 2018 2:12am
Quoting Dennis1468
{quote} Painted over your chart {image}
You're a gracious teacher. This area is sort of a defense zone. So, Gap & Fade.
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Buy low, sell high.
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