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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #8,301
  • Nov 2, 2018 1:06pm Nov 2, 2018 1:06pm
USDCAD

Quoting MikuSS
{quote} Hi Scrumy, This is the post as promised. I was also in a USDCAD trade. Boss (Daily): Yesterday's candle closed as a BEEB, so I am looking for sell trades today. {image} Worker (H4): Another BEEB was found, this time round with confluence of confirmation of bouncing off resistance, as well as breaking support of Strat Shadow {image} Looking down at H1 also shows a confirmed Lower High. {image} As I saw red news on the calendar for CAD which was in around 3 hours (and being burned too many times from news in H4 time frame), I decided to monitor...
Miku,

This is good but, if you really were in this trade and trading REAL, hard earned money at the MOVING HARD RIGHT EDGE and exited at the candle shown by your blue arrow then all I can say is ""PLEASE TEACH ME HOW TO DO THAT!""

I rarely trade USDCAD as there are 11 more volatile pairs before it soaking up my margin.

Had I been trading it, I would have got out at the doji shooting star - my red arrow, long before your exit candle. There is NO WAY my Little People would have let me trade through all that slop to your exit candle.

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Look at all the wicks of these 2 candles (depth gauge or periscope..?)

Those are NOTHING like my depth gauges - go back and re-read and learn about them.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,302
  • Nov 2, 2018 1:25pm Nov 2, 2018 1:25pm
Quoting strat
WAIT for PRICE to CLOSE below the Strat Shadow and support and enter where shown.
Just to make sure, I few things if you don't mind answering:
1. Support being the break of a previous confirmed low and the close below the MAs
2. For trend we only care about the MAs looking good in a fan formation or we look at higher time frames for confirmation (i.e. swings, MAs, etc.)
Edit: my understanding is we don't look at higher time frames
3. The only time we look at higher time frames (H1 and H4) while taking M5 trades is asses targets and R:R

Thank you!
Val
  • #8,303
  • Nov 2, 2018 1:32pm Nov 2, 2018 1:32pm
GBPUSD M5 PASR Trend Trading

I suppose I could have squeezed around 15 measly pips out of this but I don't get out of bed for 15 pips. Other than that, the Big Boys must already be on their yachts because they are not in the Market.

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,304
  • Nov 2, 2018 1:53pm Nov 2, 2018 1:53pm
Quoting strat
MT4 {quote} Thank you to all those who have replied to Scrumy on this topic - TRADERS HELPING TRADERS MT4 has severe limitations when compared to Professional charting software such as TradeStation etc., but, you get what you pay for. MT4 is free and, as long as I work and trade within its limitations, MT4 is fine for me. I occasionally check other chart trading software (the latest was Ninja Trader) but then I see Nicola (elitejets) telling me AGAIN - "there is nothing new in trading!" If I have multiple chart windows open, then I face on big problem:...
Can you continue drawing the support and resistance please until u get your worker timeframe with all the Support and Resistance? Is only for recap.
  • #8,305
  • Nov 2, 2018 1:57pm Nov 2, 2018 1:57pm
GBPNZD M5

Quoting fxmarvel
{quote} Just to make sure, I few things if you don't mind answering: 1. Support being the break of a previous confirmed low and the close below the MAs 2. For trend we only care about the MAs looking good in a fan formation or we look at higher time frames for confirmation (i.e. swings, MAs, etc.) Edit: my understanding is we don't look at higher time frames 3. The only time we look at higher time frames (H1 and H4) while taking M5 trades is asses targets and R:R Thank you!
Support being the break of a previous confirmed low and the close below the MAs

NO! We do NOT trade MAs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Isn't my explanation ""sure"" enough? Just in case:

Attached Image


For trend we only care about the MAs looking good in a fan formation or we look at higher time frames for confirmation (i.e. swings, MAs, etc.)

NO! We do NOT trade MAs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This tells me you either have not read or understood these posts:

Posts 267, 280, 281, 282, 283, 357, 376, 480, 487, 495, 512, 529, 533, 554, 563, 564, 611, 614, 616, 653, 691, 713, 721, 725 & 726

The only time we look at higher time frames (H1 and H4) while taking M5 trades is asses targets and R:R

We do NOT assess targets in my M5 PASR Trend Trading strategy - read and re-read Dr. Joe until you understand trends.

Note: Yomi is different and his ""style"" is to set a trend target of 50 pips on each pair he trades..................but that is Yomi and he KNOWS what he is doing!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,306
  • Nov 2, 2018 2:00pm Nov 2, 2018 2:00pm
SR Levels

Quoting HappyTrend
{quote} Can you continue drawing the support and resistance please until u get your worker timeframe with all the Support and Resistance? Is only for recap.
NO! Who do you think I am - your slave? You do it and I will check it!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,307
  • Nov 2, 2018 2:13pm Nov 2, 2018 2:13pm
Quoting strat
SR Levels {quote} NO! Who do you think I am - your slave? You do it and I will check it!
Oh no! hehehe you are the Teacher, not a "slave".

Monthly: S&R Black Rectangle Dash with Colour.

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Weekly: S&R Black Rectangle Solid Line

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Daily: S&R Cadet Lines.

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  • #8,308
  • Edited 5:17pm Nov 2, 2018 2:16pm | Edited 5:17pm
Quoting strat
GBPNZD M5 {quote} Support being the break of a previous confirmed low and the close below the MAs NO! We do NOT trade MAs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Isn't my explanation ""sure"" enough? Just in case: {image} For trend we only care about the MAs looking good in a fan formation or we look at higher time frames for confirmation (i.e. swings, MAs, etc.) NO! We do NOT trade MAs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This tells me you either have not read or understood these posts: Posts 267, 280, 281, 282, 283, 357, 376, 480, 487, 495, 512, 529, 533, 554, 563, 564, 611, 614, 616,...
That's true Sir......... But ultimately I take what the market is giving, just like today, only 25pips from EURUSD.

And if the market is trending, I just takes my 50pips and leave the rest on the table, while I come back the next day to do my thing again. That's the discipline.


Thank you for your guidance here.


Happy weekend All,
Yomi.
Time always comes before price
  • #8,309
  • Edited 2:30pm Nov 2, 2018 2:19pm | Edited 2:30pm
Quoting strat
GBPCAD {quote} B (H4): The price is currently supported by a resistance by forming a hammer, but it is not hammer as long as the candle is not closed, descend on H1 Another one who has not read and understood my many posts on Hammers and Shooting Stars! That candle is a "hanging man" on your chart and a doji on mine telling us the buyers are no longer interested in buying. however the price has closed at the level of the Resistance BRN 1.70, it is risky to buy at the level of resistance If it is ""risky"" then why do it? You have forgotten our No....

Thanks for your reply, this allowed me to review these candles in the old thread and yes I will pass in real for the experience and the moving hard right edge!

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  • #8,310
  • Nov 2, 2018 2:20pm Nov 2, 2018 2:20pm
AUDCAD

Quoting Corinna
{quote} Strat, thanks for your reply. After watching carefully at the Boss chart in post 8278, I finally understand why you enter at the blue candle in the daily. It was all due to the exhaustion gap which indicated that the end of the down trend was near. That's where you wait for the confirmed swing low in the daily to enter the trade. If I am wrong, please let me know. I only know about exhaustion gap just now. Some thing new I've learn. Corinna
Well done, Corinna - go to the top of the Class.

Exhaustion candles, and exhaustion gaps are only one of many ways I try to identify the end/beginning of Boss Swings.

Since the Market is more "chaos" than predictable, there are times when I get it wrong and have to take the hit (loss) on the chin which is why Position Sizing, Money Management and Trade Management is very important. I keep on entering until PRICE moves in the direction of the new Swing, at which time, the profits make the previous "search" losses insignificant - very insignificant.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,311
  • Nov 2, 2018 2:34pm Nov 2, 2018 2:34pm
Quoting strat
Isn't my explanation ""sure"" enough? ... NO! We do NOT trade MAs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think it finally get it!

Quoting strat
This tells me you either have not read or understood these posts: Posts 267, 280, 281, 282, 283, 357, 376, 480, 487, 495, 512, 529, 533, 554, 563, 564, 611, 614, 616, 653, 691, 713, 721, 725 & 726
I actually have all of these bookmarked and grouped in a folder but I will read them again.. and again..

Quoting strat
re-read Dr. Joe until you understand trends
Okay, we continue/trail the trend as long as it lasts until the break of a swing

Quoting strat
Yomi is different and his ""style"" is to set a trend target of 50 pips on each pair he trades..................but that is Yomi and he KNOWS what he is doing!
Yeah, I admire Yomi and his trading.. he mentioned a few posts above he does the "happy" 50 daily pips. I guess the combination of the two trading styles got me a little confused.


Strat, thank you for taking the time to answer; this surely cleared some of the fog I had in my head but we'll know how much was cleared when I will post some real trades I'm taking.
Val
  • #8,312
  • Nov 2, 2018 2:50pm Nov 2, 2018 2:50pm
Quoting strat
M5 PASR Trend Trading {quote} I will post charts later Still waiting
I will post charts later

Still waiting

STILL WAITING!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,313
  • Nov 2, 2018 9:18pm Nov 2, 2018 9:18pm
Quoting strat
PASR Candles {quote} please allow me to ask in more detail No problem - ask all you want - it is the ONLY way to learn and why the Lurkers will NEVER learn. I replied in an earlier post that Step 1 was recognising basic candles. This was followed by SEEING BEYOND THE CANDLES. Make sure you understand this. Hobby traders think that once they can recognise the ""usual"" PRICE action candles - BUEB, BUOB, BEEB, BEOB, ""Pin bars"" (most can't differentiate Hammers from Shooting Stars), dojis and various candlestick patterns etc., etc., they are PRICE...
Here is my attempt:

On the candle that I identified, the price tried to go lower, but being pushed back up after it slightly exceeded previous candle low. It suggest that buyers willing to protect this area. It could also means that some of the sellers is taking profit and waiting to see what happen next, might entry on a higher price for better sales. However, since Strat Shadow is way above, it could means that a lot of sellers are waiting to see if there is better price to get in later. The buyers of this price action of the candle have not yet fought more sellers that will be coming later. A couple doji earlier around this price also means that there are less sellers around this price, for the time on the chart.
  • #8,314
  • Nov 2, 2018 10:46pm Nov 2, 2018 10:46pm
Quoting strat
XAUUSD GOLD {quote} All that glitters etc. This shiny stuff took a lot of my money when I was "naively" trading Futures and Commodities but now, with my PASR hat on, I am no longer dazzled by it and can take my "shades" off! Big Boss: Pass 3 months was Hammer Yes and it is still IN CONTROL. Ask yourself what is the Strat Shadow doing from February 2016 and what do I understand from this? Boss: Has been in strong uptrend since 23 Sept week But is it NOW - week ending November 02, 2018? Worker: Adjusted my SR to catch worker's PA. Very good! This...

From Feb 2016, Strat Shadow is getting smaller, tangling. Though when look closely, it actually slowly turning from negative Strat Shadow to positive Strat Shadow. This confluence with the candle on Feb 2016 have invalidated the Oct 2015 Shooting Star with a strong bullish momentum candle across the Strat Shadow. The price might want to get higher, but PASR will tell us when, or even when the price will actually want to go continue downward instead.

In the week end of Nov 02, the price ended with a doji, resisted by SR around price 1241. Previous bullish candle that getting smaller and smaller. Now it is in equilibrium between buyers and sellers, though it is around the resistance.

With the SR and 200ema on the way, if the price want to get up, it is likely to wobble for quite awhile. Another alternative of action is waiting for a cross and restest of 200ema SR confluences to trade long or alternatively, price go down and retest 1211.5 SR to go short.

I think when I doing this analysis, my mind actually start filling up the empty space on the chart with future candles base on the pattern, let me imagine there going to be lots of bullish candles following up that just isn't there. I just Have to trade what I sees rather than what I imagine it will happen. The price does not follow pattern.

There might also one other issue with trading gold practically, my wallet probably couldn't handle it. It is now just for practice.
  • #8,315
  • Edited 1:30am Nov 3, 2018 12:50am | Edited 1:30am
Quoting HappyTrend
{quote} Oh no! hehehe you are the Teacher, not a "slave". Monthly: S&R Black Rectangle Dash with Colour. {image} Weekly: S&R Black Rectangle Solid Line {image} Daily: S&R Cadet Lines. {image}
Hi HappyTrend,

I made the same mistake as you when I first started on The Path.

When we draw too many Support and Resistance Lines, it confuses our mind. It is better to just draw 2 sets of lines: 1 above and 1 below the current Price.

To do so, I first start from the Big Boss, and draw 2 lines that are the most obvious:
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Then, I move down to the Boss and refine my lines.
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I prefer to add in zones, so I add in a second line. In addition, I see an immediate line that is pretty obvious on the Boss chart, so I add it in as well.

Finally, we toggle down to the Worker and fine tune it again. Notice how Price is reacting to these lines (PASR in action).
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Hope this clears up the confusion.
  • #8,316
  • Nov 3, 2018 1:01am Nov 3, 2018 1:01am
Quoting HappyTrend
{quote} Oh no! hehehe you are the Teacher, not a "slave". Monthly: S&R Black Rectangle Dash with Colour. {image} Weekly: S&R Black Rectangle Solid Line {image} Daily: S&R Cadet Lines. {image}
Hi HappyTrend,

I thinks for area SR if you did not adjust on worker, it might look pretty messy with the way you did it. Just my opinion though.

I will attempt it as well.

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It might not be the most correct way to draw SR, but I found that it suit me better than SR area so far. I will add lines when some price is respected and remove when I don't think it is relevant for that moment. May be I will draw area later instead when I progress further on path.
  • #8,317
  • Nov 3, 2018 1:08am Nov 3, 2018 1:08am
Quoting strat
USDCAD {quote} Miku, This is good but, if you really were in this trade and trading REAL, hard earned money at the MOVING HARD RIGHT EDGE and exited at the candle shown by your blue arrow then all I can say is ""PLEASE TEACH ME HOW TO DO THAT!"" I rarely trade USDCAD as there are 11 more volatile pairs before it soaking up my margin. Had I been trading it, I would have got out at the doji shooting star - my red arrow, long before your exit candle. There is NO WAY my Little People would have let me trade through all that slop to your exit candle....
Hi Strat,

Thank you for your reply.

Perhaps I should have rephrased my explanation. I entered this trade on the H4 candle on the break of the Strat Shadow. I did not monitor the trade until it was 2 hours before news (and I needed to go out as well, can't monitor the trade anymore) so when I dropped down to M5, Price was consolidating already. I soon saw that candlestick and decided it was time to take my money and run for the hills.

I agree with you, if I was trading M5, I would have exited around that candle you indicated. Then again, as you have said, it is not really a volatile pair to be worth our time watching it on M5.

Lastly, yes this was a live trade. I am still using micro lots to learn how to control my Little People. I must say, it is getting better. The consistency in PASR has allows me to have confidence in my trades, as well as trade management.
  • #8,318
  • Edited 1:49am Nov 3, 2018 1:27am | Edited 1:49am
Quoting huatzhi
{quote} Hi HappyTrend, I thinks for area SR if you did not adjust on worker, it might look pretty messy with the way you did it. Just my opinion though. I will attempt it as well. {image} {image} {image} It might not be the most correct way to draw SR, but I found that it suit me better than SR area so far. I will add lines when some price is respected and remove when I don't think it is relevant for that moment. May be I will draw area later instead when I progress further on path.
Hi Huatzhi,

Some prefer zones, some prefer lines. The important thing to take note of is that Support and Resistance is an area, not a fixed Price.

Also I am missing a few lines as compared to your chart. It is not that I did not see them, but think of them as 'wobble zones' instead. Look at how Price reacted to that line on the Worker.
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Box 1: Bounced off support, but downtrend resumed.
Box 2: Bounced off resistance, but uptrend resumed
Box 3: Wobble
Box 4: Wobble up and down
Box 5: Wobble with retest of zone (see BEEB)

Now that Price is at Box 6, what will Price do? Is it a bounce, or a wobble? Hard to say....

That is why Support and Resistance lines drawn from the Big Boss and Boss are much 'superior' and 'reliable' than the ones from the Worker. Instead of drawing them, I keep a mental note of them.

Remember, we trade the Boss swing, not the Worker swing.

EDIT: Looking at the line again, I believe it can be seen more obviously on H4.
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  • #8,319
  • Edited 5:59am Nov 3, 2018 4:52am | Edited 5:59am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Scrumy I don't trade this system however I like the system shared by Strat.Just a question to you If price was consolidating on UC as you mentioned then why would you take the loss. SL 10-25pips is basically asking to be taken out because there is random nature in the markets.Spikes are common however they don't necessarily tell which side will break out. You could of not place hard stop and simply visually monitor the trade and if you reduce the size of the trade even better. Thanks
Hey Davit,

thanks for your input. As I am currently learning the strategy, I will make mistakes - this was one of them. As I said, my lesson learnt is NOT to enter the trade when there is such a CONSOLIDATION happening.

The TIGHT STOP is just according to Strat's M5 PASR trend trading strategy. And if we run into the stop - no problem. The next opportunity Setup, even on the same pair can happen in a couple of minutes. But other traders, like Yomi, use a wider stop to protect themselves presumably of what you describe. So for me I have to still find my personal trading style - whether tight stops or wider stops will work for me. As of now I don't know.
Accept the risk!
  • #8,320
  • Edited 6:00am Nov 3, 2018 5:32am | Edited 6:00am
Quoting strat
USDCAD {quote} Scrumy, you have some excellent feedback from Miku, bistolis and fxrabbi - TRADERS HELPING TRADERS In addition to those valuable comments and also your own critique, I will just add: Were you are of the biggest RED FLAG news event today when you entered this trade - NFP? News trading is only for EXPERIENCED traders no matter what their strategy is. There are some positives though in what you did: Nice trend, see Strat Shadow. At least your Mark I eyeballs are in good working order! SL of 10 Pips just above the BEEB - and above most...
Thank you strat for your input - also on the MT4 topic. Appreciate it and my brain did A LOT of extra work (partially on it's own, based on the input I received from all of you). Thanks to all of you.

Were you are of the biggest RED FLAG news event today when you entered this trade - NFP? News trading is only for EXPERIENCED traders no matter what their strategy is.

I must admit, I have seen it just an hour before - was considering to give a heads up to the traders in this thread, but thought they would be aware of it. And I also don't wanted to spam. Already did a lot of posts these days and want to avoid "Oh no, Scrumy posting again. Does he ever sleep?" .

We don't set TPs when TREND TRADING - either on M1 or Monthly - go back, read and re-read Dr. Joe. Setting this TP tells me you were unconsciously trading Basic PASR.

I did set a TP because I was not around at my workstation. Therefore I just bank in profits, leave the rest on the table and be happy with it. (Hey Yomi! ).

YES! But how long will you remember this for?

Already handwritten and also digitalized on my Kanban board.

You will do well, Grasshopper!

You can't imagine the effect of this sentence! Thanks for that.

Make sure you are keeping a Trading Journal and documenting ALL your trades with before and after charts

Attached you will see how I document my Trading Journal, a digital Kanban board. I blurred the name of the tool to not violate against any commercial content stuff.
I have several labels for my trades, where I tag the trades and on weekends I go through that board and analyze the trades again and make my conclusions out of it (throw away what didn't work, hold on to things that do work).

I hope my approach inspires other traders as well - as it is just peanuts if you do all that stuff (screenshot, feelings, thoughts, analysis etc.) directly on the go while trading. Simplest approach: just take a screenshot and paste it in there. Done. Weekend is reflection time and also doing a screenshot of the aftermath of your trade.

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Accept the risk!
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