Let's Trade Options

As mentioned last month, I will put all my picks for the month on here real time to see if I'm more accurate than just flipping a coin, and will do so through the end of the year. At the end of each month, I will provide a summary of those picks, as below.

This is a summary of the trades:

FFIV Oct19 170 CALL up to $2.75 from $1.55 (+$1.20)
SPGI Oct19 190 CALL up to $1.60 from $0.50 (+$1.10)
DIA Oct19 256 CALL up to $2.25 from $1.60 (+$0.65)
HES Nov2 64.5 CALL up to $3.05 from $2.05 (+$1.00)
OXY Nov2 72 CALL up to $2.40 from $1.55 (+$0.85)
HD Nov2 177.5 CALL up to $5.80 from $2.35 (+$3.45)
CAT Nov9 116 CALL up to $5.10 from $2.65 (+$2.45)
CAT Nov9 CALL up to $5.85 from $3.45 (+$2.40)
CAT Nov23 119 CALL up to $6.10 from $2.45 (+$3.65)
SWK Nov2 126 CALL down to $0 from $1.95 (-$1.95)
SWK Nov2 123 CALL down to $0 from $1.80 (-$1.80)
SWK Nov2 117 CALL down to $0.60 from $3.00 (-$2.40)
SWK Nov18 110 CALL up to $8.80 from $3.00 (+$5.80)
SWK Nov18 112 CALL up to $7.30 from $2.65 (+$4.65)


In order to compare apples to apples like last month, assuming you purchased 10 contracts of each of these:

FFIV -- $1200 profit

SPGI --$1100 profit

DIA -- $650 profit

HES -- $1000 profit

OXY -- $850 profit

HD -- $3450 profit

CAT -- $2450 profit

CAT -- $2400 profit

CAT -- $3650 profit

SWK -- $1950 loss
SWK -- $1800 loss
SWK -- $2400 loss

SWK -- $5800 profit

SWK -- $4650 profit

Total Profit: $21,050

not a big deal to me either way, post whatever you like

at the end of the day this is all that matters, even if you were just flipping a coin. I'm not saying you are lucky, not at all, but personally, I'd take luck over skill any day

STRONG USD whacking EWZ, it down 2%, fucking up my call spreads. Could shoulda woulda....closed some yesterday....

Not me! If a person just relies on luck, that's nothing more than high stakes gambling. Skill is what makes money month after month after month, in my opinion, anyway.

Besides, when I'm trading 100 contracts, I would NEVER even consider putting $18K in a trade I thought has just as good of a chance to lose than to be profitable.

Well, of course, you're right, but I'll take luck too if I can get it. Most of the time it seems I get bad luck...

Yeah, losses may be part of the game, but they are still tough! That's why I like trading the way that I do, because the trade is usually just for a few days and barring any oddities (like an analyst comment or a big change in the DJIA), they usually work out just as expected. I've found it is harder for me to look months into the future, as there are just too many variables that can affect the outcome, so my hat's off to you, because there is a lot of research you have to do before you get into your trades. But if they consistently make you money month after month, I'm thinking your skill set is probably a lot higher than what you take credit for, TF.

My success in trading comes from limiting my risk. (I'd say this is true for trading in general.) If all my losses are 1x risk and all my returns are 3x risk or better, with quite a few up in the >5x and an occasional 10x-20x, then I can afford to be wrong, even most of the time....

Nice to be on the right side of the market always though....

I suppose it all depends on how you define risk....and success. I never bought in to the idea of just being profitable being the same as successful like a lot of people do.

I sort of equate a lot of trading stuff with fishing bass tournaments. Let's say you catch at least three fish in every tournament you have entered over the past 5 years. That's a good record. But when weigh-in happens, if you aren't in the top five, no one even knows you fished the tournament. So while technically you may be a successful fisherman, you aren't a successful tournament fisherman, and that's what it's all about.

Heck, if it were me and I was in trades that I was confident I could make 500%-2000% return, I'd put a cubic buttload of money in each trade. But.... I'd have to be confident in the trade. I just can't bring myself to put money on something I don't have a high level of confidence in. The trade may only cost $0.05, but I'd have at least 1000 contracts in it, so I'm still gonna put a lot of money into a trade. But, I'm not just gonna roll the dice and see what happens, and it just seems like the longer term spreads and such are harder to predict, for me anyway.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post11643689

SPY Nov2 bull puts $262.5/265 coming off for a nickel debit, was a 50c credit to start. $265 a long way down but I will sleep better with NFP on tap...

Well, SWK jumped up, so I managed to eek out a little money from one that I thought was dead in the water.

Went from SWK Nov2 123 CALL down to $0 from $1.95 (-$1.95) to SWK Nov2 123 CALL down to $0.95 from $1.95 (-$1.00) *

I don't think SWK is going to top 128 by tomorrow, so I think that one is a done deal, but I wish I would have held on to the 117 CALLS a little longer....instead of losing $2.40 on that trade I would have made $2.10!

Anyway, that means the total profit needs revising since the loss was only $1.00 instead of $1.95:


In order to compare apples to apples like last month, assuming you purchased 10 contracts of each of these:

FFIV -- $1200 profit

SPGI --$1100 profit

DIA -- $650 profit

HES -- $1000 profit

OXY -- $850 profit

HD -- $3450 profit

CAT -- $2450 profit

CAT -- $2400 profit

CAT -- $3650 profit

SWK -- $1000 loss *

SWK -- $1800 loss

SWK -- $2400 loss

SWK -- $5800 profit

SWK -- $4650 profit

Total Profit: $22,000

My 5c debit EWZ Nov2/9 $42 call callie came off at 50c today. If EWZ had not been bouncing up/down I might have held it til Friday. Ihave nickel $43's same dates and I will see if EWZ can rise into better profit on those tomorrow....

I'm jealous. I have Roth IRA accounts smaller than this. On the plus side, my Oct gains are about 20% for most accounts (if I include today....lol)

And I am envious of your skills with the different spreads. I really need to learn that as an extra 'lure' in my tacklebox!

Well, had the 126 SWK CALLS out at $0.70, and while others hit the Ask price, mine must have been too far down in the mix. If there is a jump at the open, I'll be able to unload those, too!!

Too bad I didn't hold on to all the SWKs.....I would have been almost $15 more to the good on them all. Heck, that would have added another $15K to the $22K for this month's picks! Oh well.....

At least I can rest knowing that SWK did what was expected, albeit very late in the game.

money do you ever trade any penny stocks?

AAPL sliding on the ER ah today let's see if that ripples thru the markets tomorrow

I have before, but it has been several years. I have made money on a few before, the true 'penny' stocks, just because you can buy a gabillion shares, but I normally don't mess with them since options are so low priced (compared to there underlying stock).

good risk management, decent skills and a lot of luck is the key of making money when trading options