Not Too Active Trading, But Profitable

I have recently returned to slightly more active trading, having turned a tiny account of £100 to £3,100 in the last 18 months or so. I trade spread-betting in the UK, so leverage is different and I got a little bit of help there. I work a full time corporate day job, so won't be too active in the same way as most members here are, but I want to find a venue where I can post some charts and thoughts, rather than only talking to myself as in the last 1.5 years.

In the early days I learned almost everything I could find that others were preaching under the sun. In the end, what's most (sometimes) useful that I find is: lines (trendlines, median lines, channels), price action, and a price-time maths-based system that I adapted and changed from the Dilernia model. You can find Frank Dilernia's old thread here. I dabbled with Gann too when I could remember to check something, but it's not an always-reliable way to trade and too time consuming so it's only a way for some occasional fun. I like the maths-based system the most due to my own personality. I work with numbers and numbers give me psychological comfort and security, while drawings are a bit too vague and subjective, and very often only obvious with hindsight.

In forex I trade only the majors, and very occasionally WTI and ES. Now to start with Euro. I think the high is not yet in, it will still go higher to reach the top of the channel, which is to double the channel distance after last November's retest, and will also take out the highs of those two wicks I highlighted on the left. In the very short term, downside might find support at around 1.2170-1.2220.

1-yr and 3-yr range high.

A difficult question for euro is it has reached its 2018 1-yr and 3-yr range high (having broke out of 2017 1-yr range high, extended to 2nd year), both nearly heavily overlapped with each other, at about 1.2360 - 1.2575. 2018-Q1's 3Q range high is at 1.2316-1.2496. This is why it's been struggling and consolidating in the last few weeks.

It will need to get back above 1.2360 to open up upside path for the year, or minimum above 1.2316 to have further upside potential for Q2.

From a chart pattern perspective, tight consolidation in 2015 & 2016, and the breakout in 2017 with a back test in Nov 2017 means that the consolidation range would most likely double. Energy from long consolidations always leads to great distance travelled after breakout. This converts to minimum 1.28 price target and beyond, maybe 1.31. Using Ackerman's hidden pivot to measure monthly also gives about 1.31. If achieved, it would cover some of the liquidity gap left in 2014.

With a new month coming in, new levels are shown on charts.

Euro hit 3-m 50% and is showing some reactions. That level also coincides a price action based support level to the left.

Updating the euro chart. It bounced last week from March 3-m 50%, currently showing the sign of breaking above 5-D range high, which will lead to further upside. This week's 3-week range high is at 1.2542, which will be the target, though I think euro can go much higher than that. Non-farm this coming Friday.

The bounce from 3-month 50% is also a retest of breakout of 1-quarterly range high, also climbing back into/above range high of 3-quarterly, 1-yearly and 3-yearly. All signs point to further upside at least into the next quarter.

Time for chart update. Euro has risen towards the end of 1st quarter. It's now back above 3-Qtr range high and 1-yr range high and 3-year range high. 3-year range high for 2018 is similar to 1-yr range high.

In a few days we will go into the 2nd quarter. If no major shock, as said in a previous post, euro is expected to be strong into the 2nd quarter. Probably into 2nd quarter's 3-Qtr range high.

Euro update:

Euro closed Q1 hanging just at it's Q1 3-qtrly range high, and well above Q2 3-Qtrly midpoint. Q2 mid-point is not far below for support, as well as the 3-weekly range low for rotation backward. This morning's high is the 3-weekly midpoint, so it's likely that 3-weekly range low might be reached. That area also coincides with some liquidity gap there on the left, that strong up bar rising from the low on 1/03/2018. And all swings are 3-wave swings, so a triangle/4th wave of some sort is going on. Still bullish, but it's certainly taking its sweet time to chop around.

Cable:

Cable seems more bullish than euro, which EUR/GBP appears to confirmed that. Or at least cable would be bullish in a more volatile/faster manner than euro. Q2 3-Qtrly high for Cable is 1.45 and with room for more.

USDJPY: bearish. Closed Q1 below 3-qtrly range low, most likely to carry on to Q2's 3-Qtrly range low, 103.49-102.30

Euro has reached its' 3-w low as per previous projection. Now rising above quarterly midpoint. There is another month to go until the usually bearish seasonal midpoint of early May. So 1 month of time window for bullishness.

ES has more upside, but the more important thing in the short term is perhaps to find where the support might be. In February it bounced off yearly midpoint. If that breaks and ES indeed has some more sizeable correction, quarterly range low at 2506 - 2465 would be the first hurdle, then 3-year midpoint, at around 2390-2400 would be a good level. One note of caution though, it has already reached its 3-year range high of 2018. So don't be foolish.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...-flags-exposed

Mercury has gone back direct yesterday. Has the euro whipsaw also ended? Minimum targets above.

Euro bounced from 1H QM. Still above monthly/quarterly midpoint. But the month has gone past 2/3, and the seasonal midpoint is approaching. Hmm...

Cable has hit one Fib target, also 3-W range high, retraced the range to 3-W range low. Support at quarterly/monthly midpoint and 1-yr range high.

Crude is closing above monthly/quarterly range high, and still above 1-year range high. Given it closed last quarter above 3-qtr range high, it will likely reach this quarter's 3-qtr high. In short, it has higher to go.

Euro has reached 3-W range low, also median line. Will it bounce around this area a bit and then hold? ECB rate decision on Thursday. It could be a big wash play.

Euro declined to Q2 3-qtrly midpoint, also left side liquidity gap support.

Euro has gone downwardly crazy as much as my day job workload upwardly mad. Aside from the marked out 3-qtr range low, that's also the range of yearly pivot, and also the 50% of the entire rise from Jan 2017 at 1.1446.

I just noticed 2 minutes ago that there would be FOMC news this evening. Perhaps that will be a window of opportunity for euro to take a breather.

Ever since Uranus entered Taurus in mid-May, work has gone crazy, and then became ever more so when Mars turned retrograde. Now Uranus has turned retro and Mars is going direct in two days' time, I can only wish and hope that things can quiet down at work.

Back to Euro, AHA!, it has dropped to the range I marked previously in post 18 and bounced, though Q3 3-Qtr range low is also in that zone. Still bearish. But if it can reach 1.19 zone then perhaps a retrace can be considered worth buying.

It's been two months since my last posts. Task master Saturn in 10th house near MC is in full swing, and big moustache in Paris is a tough headmaster! I'd better not screw up my golden chance.

Euro looking lower to hit Q4 1-qtr lower range, 3-qtr range low at 1.1190-1.1043