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Plan the Trade

  • #8,581
  • Oct 29, 2018 10:23am Oct 29, 2018 10:23am
Quoting theunis
Ended at -50 today ... caught the wrong kind of pullsbacks ... seems I find it hard to shake the habit ... I need to spend more time in the replay function ... good thing I am in sim mode ... eish. {image}
Hey Theunis, have you considered using buy stops and sell stops for you entries - as in below bear bars for shorts and above bull bars for longs? If you did, then the market would at least be going in your direction already. The only drawback might be that you would have to possibly use a wider stop and a slower chart to give yourself a bit more time. And lastly try not to exclude "context" from your decision making, the best setups will still most likely fail if the context is poor.

These are just a couple of suggestions to hopefully make you life easier!
Take it easy and enjoy the warm weather!
  • #8,582
  • Oct 29, 2018 10:41am Oct 29, 2018 10:41am
bumpy ride for me:

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Become the casino
  • #8,583
  • Oct 29, 2018 10:49am Oct 29, 2018 10:49am
think your trades were here Harold:

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Become the casino
  • #8,584
  • Oct 29, 2018 11:16am Oct 29, 2018 11:16am
Quoting erasmus66
think your trades were here Harold: {image}
You are correct still can't post charts might be a computer thing
  • #8,585
  • Oct 29, 2018 12:50pm Oct 29, 2018 12:50pm
Quoting angus
{quote} Hey Theunis, have you considered using buy stops and sell stops for you entries - as in below bear bars for shorts and above bull bars for longs? If you did, then the market would at least be going in your direction already. The only drawback might be that you would have to possibly use a wider stop and a slower chart to give yourself a bit more time. And lastly try not to exclude "context" from your decision making, the best setups will still most likely fail if the context is poor. These are just a couple of suggestions to hopefully make...
Thanks for the advice.

I tried that type of trading earlier in the year on Sierra and it did not work for me ... the widers SL makes a good risk reward ratio difficult ... but it was on the very short timeframes so will check it out again on longer timeframes. I think that is how VEEFX also trade.
Never give up !!!
  • #8,586
  • Oct 29, 2018 1:06pm Oct 29, 2018 1:06pm
Quoting theunis
{quote} Thanks for the advice. I tried that type of trading earlier in the year on Sierra and it did not work for me ... the widers SL makes a good risk reward ratio difficult ... but it was on the very short timeframes so will check it out again on longer timeframes. I think that is how VEEFX also trade.
Wide stops are not required... but requires some floating loss to accommodate for the hesitation of price if any. The key here is to decide what's you max loss potential. 4contract times 2 or 3 losses is realistic in a first hour (although recoverable at the end but still a loss) so I am exploring to cap at that loss... one loss per breakout and I am done.... but if one breakout is successful, I am getting exponential returns depending on how much floating profit you can handle (and potentially lose it all at BE). Also, use FIFO to your advantage in cutting bigger losses into smaller chucks (but that requires adding to floating loss and potentially still be in the right side of the trend... advisable only if you have realized profits and don't care of losing it.... in the hopes to gain more.... suitable for greed b*stards like me)

Try it out in market replay. it works beautifully as breakouts are fierce in this market environment. It works quite well in september so more testing is required.

EDIT: There is a reason why I asked to Harold how many consecutive losses before we stop trading :-
Staying in my lane...
  • #8,587
  • Oct 29, 2018 1:15pm Oct 29, 2018 1:15pm
Since I only trade 1 hour there is no max loss I have had 2 losses in a row a couple of times only to get 2 wins following that. The risk 1 to make 2 comes into play very nicely when you win 2 and lose 2
  • #8,588
  • Oct 29, 2018 2:50pm Oct 29, 2018 2:50pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Wide stops are not required... but requires some floating loss to accommodate for the hesitation of price if any. The key here is to decide what's you max loss potential. 4contract times 2 or 3 losses is realistic in a first hour (although recoverable at the end but still a loss) so I am exploring to cap at that loss... one loss per breakout and I am done.... but if one breakout is successful, I am getting exponential returns depending on how much floating profit you can handle (and potentially lose it all at BE). Also, use FIFO to your...
Sjoe ka wena ... that is a hectic way to trade ... must be tough on your mental framenwork when done in a live account ...
Never give up !!!
  • #8,589
  • Edited Oct 30, 2018 8:15am Oct 29, 2018 3:02pm | Edited Oct 30, 2018 8:15am
Quoting Divergence
Since I only trade 1 hour there is no max loss I have had 2 losses in a row a couple of times only to get 2 wins following that. The risk 1 to make 2 comes into play very nicely when you win 2 and lose 2
After all my experiments and trials and ups and downs over the years I have seen or met only a few people that have achieved consistent profits over time, and without exception they have a simple and defined stategy with a good risk reward ratio such as Mr D states here. In the beginning I thought there must be better ways to extract more profit from the market but I have not been able to do it and has become very very frustrated over time. Finally I had to admit that I must give it a try and that is what I am doing. I think all my experiments and trails caused a lot of bad habits and that is what is biting me on the backside most of the time ... I just have to practice it out of my system ... I have seen and are seeing a way to make it happen ... so be it !
Never give up !!!
  • #8,590
  • Edited 9:43pm Oct 29, 2018 3:47pm | Edited 9:43pm
Quoting theunis
{quote} Sjoe ka wena ... that is a hectic way to trade ... must be tough on your mental framenwork when done in a live account ...
hectic only when there is whipsaw or a super fast reversal (which can be controled by automation) which is a problem with any style. here's an example on 9/17/18 with the same trail BE settings. research continues.....

Edit: I think I am going to replicate/automate the logic in MT4 to prove the validity of my one-hour breakout theory. Until then, I will avoid cluttering this thread with my daily blabbing and cause clutter. This approach needs to be quantified so no other way out unfortunately.
Staying in my lane...
  • #8,591
  • Oct 30, 2018 4:46am Oct 30, 2018 4:46am
Morning NQ lovers,
Seems so easy on sim mode let see if i can do the same on live. I should stop posting charts totally unrelated to the method laid out here. I have learned great deal of thing from this thread and most important of all If one thing i taken from thread is , Discipline from D as his 1 hr time slot/tick target. For me its a invaluable lesson, bcz to keep our GREED and EGO at check, where i failed indefinite.
Thanks D and CG for for your contributions to this wonderfull thread.
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on a postive roll...
  • #8,592
  • Oct 30, 2018 8:07am Oct 30, 2018 8:07am
well last trading day of the month for me since i dont trade wednesday so i am giving myself a raise and see how it goes 6 contracts. its only an additional 120 dollars extra if i lose but 250 more if i win and as long as fills are no problem i will stay with 6
  • #8,593
  • Oct 30, 2018 8:15am Oct 30, 2018 8:15am
Quoting Divergence
well last trading day of the month for me since i dont trade wednesday so i am giving myself a raise and see how it goes 6 contracts. its only an additional 120 dollars extra if i lose but 250 more if i win and as long as fills are no problem i will stay with 6
your stop and tp are fixed for all trades? 1:2? what your tick size in stop/tp? you still keeping just 8k as account size?

6 contracts in this current market, 2 days can make average month's salary.
  • #8,594
  • Oct 30, 2018 8:19am Oct 30, 2018 8:19am
Quoting Divergence
well last trading day of the month for me since i dont trade wednesday so i am giving myself a raise and see how it goes 6 contracts. its only an additional 120 dollars extra if i lose but 250 more if i win and as long as fills are no problem i will stay with 6
Awesome man. Hope you can record this session. would love to see how you cope with increased position sizing. Historically, I have struggled everytime I raised lotsize in spotfx.... so my solution is to take two trades at the same price (which sounds retarted... our minds works in mysterious ways :-(
Staying in my lane...
  • #8,595
  • Oct 30, 2018 8:27am Oct 30, 2018 8:27am
Quoting Divergence
well last trading day of the month for me since i dont trade wednesday so i am giving myself a raise and see how it goes 6 contracts. its only an additional 120 dollars extra if i lose but 250 more if i win and as long as fills are no problem i will stay with 6
Fill should not be a problem. I've seen a guy who records like you do with 10 contracts and no issues. He has done 20 without much issue.
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
  • #8,596
  • Oct 30, 2018 8:43am Oct 30, 2018 8:43am
Quoting capstone
{quote} Fill should not be a problem. I've seen a guy who records like you do with 10 contracts and no issues. He has done 20 without much issue.
i've seen few ES traders but not NQ. who's the guy so i can track?
  • #8,597
  • Oct 30, 2018 8:46am Oct 30, 2018 8:46am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} i've seen few ES traders but not NQ. who's the guy so i can track?
pitbull trader. uses a 55 tick chart on NQ. Also does oil and ES.
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
  • #8,598
  • Oct 30, 2018 8:56am Oct 30, 2018 8:56am
Quoting capstone
{quote} pitbull trader. uses a 55 tick chart on NQ. Also does oil and ES.
ugh, he's offering courses.

seriously, if you make 10-20k/month, why bother teaching. i understand it's extra money, but it's also extra time to answer questions/mentor and all that bullshit

managing other people's money it's understandable, but TEACHING? ....
  • #8,599
  • Oct 30, 2018 8:59am Oct 30, 2018 8:59am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} your stop and tp are fixed for all trades? 1:2? what your tick size in stop/tp? you still keeping just 8k as account size? 6 contracts in this current market, 2 days can make average month's salary.
Stops and targets and everything else the same just increase lot size
  • #8,600
  • Oct 30, 2018 9:05am Oct 30, 2018 9:05am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} ugh, he's offering courses. seriously, if you make 10-20k/month, why bother teaching. i understand it's extra money, but it's also extra time to answer questions/mentor and all that bullshit managing other people's money it's understandable, but TEACHING? ....
I get it....Only brought it up because it is a live example of significant contract amounts being filled with no issues. Not advocating him or what he does or anything.
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
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