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EURJPY M15 system 80%+

  • #1,341
  • Oct 28, 2018 10:08pm Oct 28, 2018 10:08pm
Quoting Rgb-dj
Hey guys, I've noticed an issue with the 3 Tier London Breakout V.3.2b indicator and Forex.com. Wondering if anyone else is experiencing this as well? {image} {image} For some reason on Sunday evenings (EST), the indicator in MT4 with Forex.com gets all weird and can't create a box properly. Yet on Tuesday thru Friday it works perfectly. The box for me in Forex.com starts at 22:00 to 2:00, but this is irrelevant since I can't get the box to form/generate/show no matter what time I enter. This only happens on Sunday evenings (EST) for some reason....
Your broker starts the week 1 hour before other brokers.
Grind until you no longer have to introduce yourself. 4:30am club
  • #1,342
  • Oct 28, 2018 10:13pm Oct 28, 2018 10:13pm
Quoting Penguinthief
{quote} Hey man. Good idea here, except that the requirements will get exceptionally high then. I mean, this EA is aimed at us 'normal' folks who maybe aren't doing this for a living, and even on basic setups at the minute you'd need $10,000 starting in an account to not bottom it out, using 0.01 lots as standard. [....]

Yeah, double checked. It's worked out purely around the Asian session, and is always 2 hours surrounding the start.
How do you calculate the account size? 0.01 lot means 1.000 EUR. Because you have your leverage, too an 10.000$ account seems a little bit high for me.

Regarding the times: maybe you got me wrong. I was not talking about a different box. Also the start of the Asian sessions can be different in summer and winter because the Asian do not use DST / no-DST while the Europeans and Americans do. So today the start of the Asian session was at a different European time as one week ago (DST changed last weekend). Some brokers use the time switch, others don't. This is why I am asking.
  • #1,343
  • Oct 29, 2018 12:46am Oct 29, 2018 12:46am
Hey peps
is daylight saving is confluence our box strategy??
  • #1,344
  • Edited 4:43am Oct 29, 2018 2:27am | Edited 4:43am
Trade #4 - Long Entry triggered. Will update later with results!

Happy Monday folks!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Edit - SL hit. 2/4 running total, 50% accuracy

Edit #2 - and this is why you don't leave both orders on. Just as easy the short entry has been triggered and SL hit!
Attached Image


Better to stick to the strategy!

Here is what it looks like on MT4
Attached Image
  • #1,345
  • Oct 29, 2018 5:17am Oct 29, 2018 5:17am
Quoting conglom-o
{quote} How do you calculate the account size? 0.01 lot means 1.000 EUR. Because you have your leverage, too an 10.000$ account seems a little bit high for me. Regarding the times: maybe you got me wrong. I was not talking about a different box. Also the start of the Asian sessions can be different in summer and winter because the Asian do not use DST / no-DST while the Europeans and Americans do. So today the start of the Asian session was at a different European time as one week ago (DST changed last weekend). Some brokers use the time switch,...
In the UK for non professional traders we’re currently limited to 1:30 leverage.

My account size was done on nothing more than using a 1000 account, it bottoming out so slapping another 0 on it.

0.01 lots is 1,000 units, after 6 losses we require 0.64 lots (0.01 * 2^6) so 64,000 units, leveraged at 1:30 at a guide conversion of 1.1397 EURUSD means a required margin of 2,400 or so, hence the requirement to up our 1,000 account.

www.fxpro.co.uk/trading/calculators/margin

Box times are accurate in my EA, it accounts for any time differences at all times of year.
Will code in MT5 for free.. EAs only, can't be f*cked with Indicators
  • #1,346
  • Oct 29, 2018 6:27am Oct 29, 2018 6:27am
I've just had a look at trades back until 1 June - anyone see anything wrong with what I'm doing?
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf EURJPY M15 TEST.pdf   1.5 MB | 705 downloads
  • #1,347
  • Edited 1:43pm Oct 29, 2018 1:28pm | Edited 1:43pm
July 16th is a loss, Oct 9th is a win.. didn't see any other stand out ones, but there's just some attention to detail. True results for that period below (number of trades matches up, wins/losses doesn't). Some may be broker based with minor differences in pricing... July 6th and August 3rd for example looks very close, but are wins for me.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 48 KB
Will code in MT5 for free.. EAs only, can't be f*cked with Indicators
  • #1,348
  • Edited 9:00pm Oct 29, 2018 5:01pm | Edited 9:00pm
Quoting Penguinthief
July 16th is a loss, Oct 9th is a win.. didn't see any other stand out ones, but there's just some attention to detail. True results for that period below (number of trades matches up, wins/losses doesn't). Some may be broker based with minor differences in pricing... July 6th and August 3rd for example looks very close, but are wins for me. {image}
Great, thanks for sharing. Just wanted to see whether anyone else doesn't match up to 80% win-rate because I am very skeptical when people cherry pick periods.

This at least suggests to me that it is closer to a 55-65% win rate rather than 80%, but I guess also depends on the period we are looking at. The only reason I have undertaken this study is because I've failed to see anyone else do anything similar.

Regardless, so far it's still a profitable system so perfectly worth using!

Edit - Trade #5, long triggered
Attached Image
  • #1,349
  • Oct 30, 2018 12:29am Oct 30, 2018 12:29am
Quoting Ivanyo
{quote} Great, thanks for sharing. Just wanted to see whether anyone else doesn't match up to 80% win-rate because I am very skeptical when people cherry pick periods. This at least suggests to me that it is closer to a 55-65% win rate rather than 80%, but I guess also depends on the period we are looking at. The only reason I have undertaken this study is because I've failed to see anyone else do anything similar. Regardless, so far it's still a profitable system so perfectly worth using! Edit - Trade #5, long triggered {image}

Just increase the time period to 7 gmt you ll get good and different results. I am doing this and its going good. Open trade only more than 35 pips range break. anf if market move before opening time then wait to come into the box of 45 and open buy stop and sell stop order. You ll get different results.
Always Be +ive
  • #1,350
  • Oct 30, 2018 5:17am Oct 30, 2018 5:17am
Is anyone trading this on other pairs then EURJPY?
  • #1,351
  • Oct 30, 2018 5:20am Oct 30, 2018 5:20am
I do

Edit: a little bit differently but the concept is pretty much the same.
Necessity knows no law except to conquer
  • #1,352
  • Oct 30, 2018 6:38am Oct 30, 2018 6:38am
Quoting Fxmd
Rules (you may want to print this) {image}{image} 26656972665699  Setup price alerts to get a notification when price breaks out.(How to setup price alerts. Click here) Working EA provided by StayFoolish https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post10715754 Load the indicator and apply the preset I created so your charts will look like mine. Every...
Hey FXMD!
I was wondering if you know why the EA is expired.. I get that notification when I install the ea :-) Nice work by the way! I was backtesting the strategy by hand but I would have to get up in the middle of the night to trade it live ;-)
  • #1,353
  • Oct 30, 2018 7:08am Oct 30, 2018 7:08am
Quoting Tradingmom
{quote} Hey FXMD! I was wondering if you know why the EA is expired.. I get that notification when I install the ea :-) Nice work by the way! I was backtesting the strategy by hand but I would have to get up in the middle of the night to trade it live ;-)
Try the EA from Inbox, last version is some pages back.
Works like a charm for me
  • #1,354
  • Oct 30, 2018 7:42am Oct 30, 2018 7:42am
Quoting Timr89
{quote} Try the EA from Inbox, last version is some pages back. Works like a charm for me
Thanks Timr89! Found it on page 65, I’ll install it later today :-)
  • #1,355
  • Oct 30, 2018 8:28am Oct 30, 2018 8:28am
Hi FXMD and Hi All,
I have been following this thread from day 1. I decided to register so I could add some comments.
Over last few months I ve made few different back tests. i dont have mt4 or 5, i was back testing directly on my broker`s platform (IG).

im not familiar with mt4 and whole back testing programs so i was doing it on paper and on demo account.

I was wondering if anyone else noticed that on Tuesdays and Thursdays this strategy performs much worse (still profitable though). Im based in London for reference.
I always trade both directions. from my experience its highly likely that if there is failed break through one way it will go nicely the other way.

my back tests showed me also that setting up standing orders (so i dont have to wake up at 2-3am) gives me around 65% probability where if i do it manually its around 77%. June 2017- October 2018.

Ive back tested different scenarios with standing orders: normal (as per instructions), 2:1 ratio,1:2 ratio, one direction only etc
Ive noticed that its highly likely on Fridays that price would reach 2x tp. There is many days there when price would fail one way giving me -1 score and then would go other direction giving me +2.

I always set up my SL= 2% of my account so in all tests win is 1, loss-1, break even 0
Fridays seem to be outstanding with 2:1 ratio

Anyway, thanks to everyone for contribution and thanks Fxmd for sharing.
Ill keep following you guys.

thanks Mike
  • #1,356
  • Oct 31, 2018 7:20am Oct 31, 2018 7:20am
hi folks

seems people are enjoying this thread.

has anyone tried on any other pairs like GPBUSD, EURUSD etc ? if so what parameters did you use and what have been the results ?

does it work as well with other pairs ~?

i would have loved to have traded the EURJPY, but unfortunately for me , its bedtime.

also, just a bit of idea. when the 15m candle closes below the breakout lines, it might be worth waiting for the price to then move below/above the lowest/highest of that candle before you enter trade. this should save you from entering false breakouts. provided, that is, the lowest/highest of the candle from the close is not a significant number of pips.
  • #1,357
  • Oct 31, 2018 7:36am Oct 31, 2018 7:36am
Quoting whatfx
hi folks seems people are enjoying this thread. has anyone tried on any other pairs like GPBUSD, EURUSD etc ? if so what parameters did you use and what have been the results ? does it work as well with other pairs ~? i would have loved to have traded the EURJPY, but unfortunately for me , its bedtime. also, just a bit of idea. when the 15m candle closes below the breakout lines, it might be worth waiting for the price to then move below/above the lowest/highest of that candle before you enter trade. this should save you from entering false breakouts....
Trader cant avoid false breakouts, they just happen and we never know if they are false or not. Anyways you do not gain any advantage by waiting for candle close and yes, this method is working on other pairs too. From my experience trading it manually will always beat EAs because you want range and breakout of range. While there is a higher chance for a "range" to setup at the given time period, setting the range manually will result in better performance. Best advice i can give is go and find theese ranges yourself, because we dont know your time zone, broker time, etc.

Best wishes
Hope
Necessity knows no law except to conquer
  • #1,358
  • Oct 31, 2018 7:37am Oct 31, 2018 7:37am
Hi tried on GBPUSD pair, 8 months back test.8 hrs (from 8 hrs before to London breakout. TP:2763 -SL:2354=409 prifit.
  • #1,359
  • Edited Nov 1, 2018 12:49am Oct 31, 2018 10:36pm | Edited Nov 1, 2018 12:49am
Quoting Ivanyo
{quote} Great, thanks for sharing. Just wanted to see whether anyone else doesn't match up to 80% win-rate because I am very skeptical when people cherry pick periods. This at least suggests to me that it is closer to a 55-65% win rate rather than 80%, but I guess also depends on the period we are looking at. The only reason I have undertaken this study is because I've failed to see anyone else do anything similar. Regardless, so far it's still a profitable system so perfectly worth using! Edit - Trade #5, long triggered {image}
So after a really long time, this trade finally hit TP.

Running total: 3/5, 60% accuracy so far from visual backtest
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 83 KB


For those who care, today's trade is going to be my first trade on a paper trading/demo account. Let's see the actual results after 100 trades (I am using tradingview).

Long entered
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,360
  • Nov 1, 2018 2:19am Nov 1, 2018 2:19am
Quoting Ivanyo
{quote} So after a really long time, this trade finally hit TP. Running total: 3/5, 60% accuracy so far from visual backtest {image} For those who care, today's trade is going to be my first trade on a paper trading/demo account. Let's see the actual results after 100 trades (I am using tradingview). Long entered {image}
Thanks for sharing,
I just want to know that:
1) yor trades are trigged everytime the price just touch the line or u wait for the candle 15m closing out of the box ?
2) About closing trade, that trade is auto closed until SL or TP hit, even it can be happened on the next day... we just set it and waiting. Or, u'll close trade yorself when Newyork opens or London closes or end of the day or something?
Thanks.
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