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The Swamp

  • #25,501
  • Oct 26, 2018 9:25am Oct 26, 2018 9:25am
Quoting giantino2000
EU is very angry going north, we may see 1433.
I still have longs... not worry,, I wont miss this train,,,
  • #25,502
  • Oct 26, 2018 9:27am Oct 26, 2018 9:27am
Pending SHORT
Attached Image
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #25,503
  • Oct 26, 2018 9:27am Oct 26, 2018 9:27am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I still have longs... not worry,, I wont miss this train,,,
Yeah Good you didn't close all,am considering few open positions
  • #25,504
  • Oct 26, 2018 9:32am Oct 26, 2018 9:32am
Quoting Boulder
Eur/Usd: Key Target Levels For 10/25/2018 Shorts TPs /Support Levels: S1: 1.1350 S2:1.1329 S3: 1.1295 Longs TPs/Resistance Levels: R1: 1.1392 R2:1.1413 R3: 1.1448 Currently @8pm est 1H Downtrend stop : 1.1424; 4H Downtrend stop : 1.1502 Daily Downtrend stop : 1.1625 Trading Strategy: System wise Short. But dollar is so overstretched, I would look for opportunities to long
R2 1413 finally reached . we crossed 3 levels today .. S1, R 1 and R2.. pretty much is done today....rarely we will hit 4 levels today to R3 1448 ...
  • #25,505
  • Oct 26, 2018 9:44am Oct 26, 2018 9:44am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} R2 1413 finally reached . we crossed 3 levels today .. S1, R 1 and R2.. pretty much is done today....rarely we will hit 4 levels today to R3 1448 ...
I have 14128
Missed my Pending
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #25,506
  • Oct 26, 2018 9:49am Oct 26, 2018 9:49am
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} I have 14128 Missed my Pending
I saw the flash price 1413 . It missed the tiny by Oanda.. .. FXCM has 1413.2..
  • #25,507
  • Oct 26, 2018 9:51am Oct 26, 2018 9:51am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I still have longs... not worry,, I wont miss this train,,,
battle for 1392/1400 has just begun
  • #25,508
  • Edited 12:38pm Oct 26, 2018 12:02pm | Edited 12:38pm
Quoting ill_be_back
Pending SHORT {image}
Short
OUT
Attached Image
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #25,509
  • Oct 26, 2018 1:47pm Oct 26, 2018 1:47pm
How Institutions Position Themselves In Euro/Usd This Week

This week, institutions mildly increased bearish bet 4th week in a row , which was shown in the latest COT as of Tuesday, Oct 23, 2018.

The institutions net long Euro positions decreased last week by only 960 contracts to net shorts 30,304 contracts,

Large amount long positions 8,768 were added, and more short positions 9,728 were added as well. Now Longs total 149,585 contracts vs shorts total 179,889 contracts .

45% long exposure vs 55% short exposure, the same as the previous week

During COT week, Euro started at 1.1573, rallied to 1.1580 high, sold down to 1.1432 low, closed at 1.1469

Longs being added at 1.1430s, it indicates they prepared Euro might go higher ,and at the same time more shorts being added, which indicates they prepared Euro to move lower , so the shorts can protect their longs.

We see after COT report, Euro did break the long term support 1.1430s, and continued to fall to 1.1335, hit daily and weekly demand zone, found support then bounced up to 1.1420 this Friday

If this rally continues, the next resistance level is 1.1480-1.15, then 1.15-1.1530 levels

Institutions Sentiment: Long Term Bearish with Short Term Recovery .

Please note institutions take weeks and months to build a position in the currency market.
Therefore, the bullish or bearish sentiment is more for a long term outlook, not intended for short term trading.
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  • #25,510
  • Oct 26, 2018 2:57pm Oct 26, 2018 2:57pm
THIS IS WHERE I THINK WE ARE GOING


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #25,511
  • Oct 26, 2018 3:28pm Oct 26, 2018 3:28pm
next week's high may have been met already near 1423.17. Atm high 1420..
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #25,512
  • Oct 26, 2018 3:33pm Oct 26, 2018 3:33pm
Quoting gatorinla
next week's high may have been met already near 1423.17. Atm high 1420.. {image}
Maybe 1428/1436 then DOWN
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #25,513
  • Oct 26, 2018 4:04pm Oct 26, 2018 4:04pm
Quoting chess king
I have an eye on 143x
Maybe only 1429
  • #25,514
  • Oct 26, 2018 7:27pm Oct 26, 2018 7:27pm
Quoting gatorinla
next week's high may have been met already near 1423.17. Atm high 1420.. {image}
Using the latest COT info, institutions bought longs last week, the lowest price they could get 1432...they might want to push price higher next week to unload their longs..
  • #25,515
  • Edited 5:06am Oct 27, 2018 4:53am | Edited 5:06am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Using the latest COT info, institutions bought longs last week, the lowest price they could get 1432...they might want to push price higher next week to unload their longs..
lets treat 1423 as a area. it can be 25 pips on either side. 1466 maybe on a spike because the day did close higher. The week closed lower, in line with month and the quarter. I do expect the year bullish close to push up sometimes in November like we discussed. The week lower could allow the test of 130x area. It would still need to close a day below 1321. I posted 1321 for a while now. Eu is notably a 100 pip whore. It tends to react 100 pips from a major level. Maybe 100 pips is a arbitrary number institutions use. Fridays high (1420) is about 100 away from 1321. The LC pivot is 1423. I dont know what the NY is for next week. It's probably a little higher.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #25,516
  • Oct 27, 2018 10:01am Oct 27, 2018 10:01am
Quoting longshot_nl
there is this cypher. it could fail because it was missed before. {image} i like the shark better. it has a entry range, i just enter at the 88.6 level. {image} the cypher could bounce to 1762 the shark could bounce to about 1.24 so the cypher is actually more bearish. just imho
it did not make another low so big bat still in play although less convincingly.
it went way lower then i hoped.
bears want < 1300 before 1623.
i don't know if it goes up now or around 1240.
if now, a cypher @ 1712.
1633 is a 61.8 retrace.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #25,517
  • Oct 27, 2018 10:10am Oct 27, 2018 10:10am
Quoting micho
{quote} new targets in bold, targets reached are striked: EU 1.219x and 1.135x UC 1.227x and 1.336x UJ 106.7x AN 1.080x GU 1.396x and 1.283x EJ 136.9x and 1.264x EC 1.577x and 1.391x EG 0.868x and 0.893x bitcoin1135x NU 0.652x AU 0.723x
new targets in bold, targets reached are striked:
EU 1.219x and 1.135x
UC 1.227x and 1.336x
UJ 106.7x
AN 1.080x
GU 1.396x and 1.283x
EJ 136.9x and 1.264x
EC 1.577x and 1.391x
EG 0.868x and 0.893x
bitcoin1135x
NU 0.652x 0.661x
AU 0.723x
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #25,518
  • Oct 27, 2018 8:26pm Oct 27, 2018 8:26pm
possible reciprocal.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #25,519
  • Oct 27, 2018 9:26pm Oct 27, 2018 9:26pm
Quoting Boulder
Trend update at noon est... Imwim .. this is for you...since you mentioned it yesterday... we start to track how long this H1 uptrend will take us... Eur/Usd On 10/26/2018 at 12am est.. Boulder Multi Time Frame System: 1H, Uptrend, Trend stop at 1H close 1.1343, Running Period: 1x1H
Boulder, you are right, the trend survive for good periods of time ...

This year, 2018 :
1 hour trend stop - 1 out of 146 trend stops (25 oct, Draghi ECB press conf)...
2 hours trend stop - 2 out of 146 trend stops (26 apr, Draghi ECB press conf) and (14 feb, miscellaneous events)...
4 hours trend stop - 4 out of 146 trend stops (5 oct, 11 jul, 18 may, and 13 apr - all miscellaneous events)...
and so on...
I am who I am
  • #25,520
  • Oct 27, 2018 10:15pm Oct 27, 2018 10:15pm
Quoting imwim
{quote} Boulder, you are right, the trend survive for good periods of time ... This year, 2018 : 1 hour trend stop - 1 out of 146 trend stops (25 oct, Draghi ECB press conf)... 2 hours trend stop - 2 out of 146 trend stops (26 apr, Draghi ECB press conf) and (14 feb, miscellaneous events)... 4 hours trend stop - 4 out of 146 trend stops (5 oct, 11 jul, 18 may, and 13 apr - all miscellaneous events)... and so on...
oh my goodness... who are you ? a career analyst .... we have similar mind... thanks for the info....
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