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Plan the Trade

  • #8,501
  • Oct 25, 2018 5:51pm Oct 25, 2018 5:51pm
Quoting magnumfreak
{quote} It's impossible to get 10-20 people trading the same way on a forum dedicated to trading what makes you think someone could get 1,000? How do you know for sure that's how they actually trade? What if they had a system that got them in 2-3 ticks before the system they show on YouTube or a forum? Think of it this way, I enter a trade on my live account. Switch to demo and make a trade with 100 times more contracts than the live account. Show the profit on YouTube to create a buzz, sit back and watch the pigeons flock. Then when the pigeons...
You missed my point a) "hypothetical scenario" which can actually happen in reality as well... maybe not in 1000s. b) pullback was just an example but since every aspect of what D has shared is out in the open (if not, I applaud you brother!), what I said is very much possible when real dollars are involved. timeframe is fixed, trading hour is fixed, instrument is fixed, setup is presumably fixed and non-descretionary as well (according to Nik)... and the real question is "why does it not concern youtubers and livestreamers?" Based on order flow, buy for buy and sell for sell for each trade transparent market, it SHOULD concern them based on what I can tell how a centralized regulated market can easily decay/frontrun a proven strategy.
Staying in my lane...
  • #8,502
  • Edited 6:11pm Oct 25, 2018 5:58pm | Edited 6:11pm
Quoting Divergence
I can guarantee no-one is entering pullbacks at same spot as me 12 ticks from high or low. They maybe entering same price but probably not from 30 second chart or pullback etc etc etc
Perhaps not now but wait for your channel to be a hit. everything you have shown can be easy to replicate and/or automated. Let me ask you in a different way. If your strategy decays and since it is your primary income producing, how long will it take to come up with another strategy (perhaps easy for your experience but hoping you get where I am going with this)? Now, the volume is tremendous in first hour and I know that is why you only trade the first hour to minimize the impact but in general, any visual trading strategy will/should decay. I saw Damien's hormonics video as well.. Same concern... completely rule-based.

P.S. I am not trying to encourage you to go into hiding... just a valid concern imo
Staying in my lane...
  • #8,503
  • Oct 25, 2018 6:11pm Oct 25, 2018 6:11pm
Vee been trading 123 2bs and pullbacks for about 7 years and so has 1000s others. Think about it you have 10s of thousands different strategies different time frames etc I had a breakeven month in June and just changed the timeframe from 133 ticks to 30 second chart there always is a tweak here and there but never on the soul of the method 123 2b s and d will always be my entry
  • #8,504
  • Oct 25, 2018 6:14pm Oct 25, 2018 6:14pm
Quoting Divergence
Vee been trading 123 2bs and pullbacks for about 7 years and so has 1000s others. Think about it you have 10s of thousands different strategies different time frames etc I had a breakeven month in June and just changed the timeframe from 133 ticks to 30 second chart there always is a tweak here and there but never on the soul of the method 123 2b s and d will always be my entry
Now that IS confidence :-)
Staying in my lane...
  • #8,505
  • Oct 25, 2018 6:20pm Oct 25, 2018 6:20pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Now that IS confidence :-)
John Grady with No BS Daytrading says the more people piling in with his strategy the better. Would just move price in his favor . . . .
  • #8,506
  • Oct 25, 2018 6:28pm Oct 25, 2018 6:28pm
Don't know who that is but if I want to buy or sell and so do others at my price that's a good thing to cause a good day also I don't move the market institutions do
  • #8,507
  • Oct 25, 2018 6:42pm Oct 25, 2018 6:42pm
Quoting Divergence
Don't know who that is but if I want to buy or sell and so do others at my price that's a good thing to cause a good day also I don't move the market institutions do
I am not gonna pretend i know how it all works. Lol
BUT i am extremely grateful you and CG have introduced me to NQ
  • #8,508
  • Oct 25, 2018 6:45pm Oct 25, 2018 6:45pm
Quoting bapakjason
{quote} I am not gonna pretend i know how it all works. Lol BUT i am extremely grateful you and CG have introduced me to NQ
Your welcome Jason it's all about probabilities and for last 7 or so years it has been pretty consistent
  • #8,509
  • Oct 25, 2018 7:42pm Oct 25, 2018 7:42pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} You missed my point a) "hypothetical scenario" which can actually happen in reality as well... maybe not in 1000s. b) pullback was just an example but since every aspect of what D has shared is out in the open (if not, I applaud you brother!), what I said is very much possible when real dollars are involved. timeframe is fixed, trading hour is fixed, instrument is fixed, setup is presumably fixed and non-descretionary as well (according to Nik)... and the real question is "why does it not concern youtubers and livestreamers?" Based on order...
Frontrunning a scalping/daytrading strategy just cannot happen on a large scale nor can traders on other side can take advantage of it due to liquidity limits and exchange rules. . There are limits to liquidity at each tick price. as orders are filled, it moves to the next ladder. If large numbers of traders try to get in at the same time, it's the same as a single large trader putting in a single large position. The will result in average price entry. You can see this from my last friday debacle. I put in just 36 contracts, and just by that my order is filled at available contracts at various prices. This is only 36 contract, imagine putting in a 1000 contracts, the whole trading system entry edge just disappear.
couple this with exit mechanics and overall psychology, the whole trading system would be pretty much lost if EVERYBODY tries to do the same thing at the same time in large numbers.

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maybe this will explain better how things work

https://www.finextra.com/blogposting...c-introduction
  • #8,510
  • Oct 25, 2018 7:47pm Oct 25, 2018 7:47pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} Frontrunning a scalping/daytrading strategy just cannot happen on a large scale nor can traders on other side can take advantage of it due to liquidity limits and exchange rules. . There are limits to liquidity at each tick price. as orders are filled, it moves to the next ladder. If large numbers of traders try to get in at the same time, it's the same as a single large trader putting in a single large position. The will result in average price entry. You can see this from my last friday debacle. I put in just 36 contracts, and just by...
here's the rest of it

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  • #8,511
  • Oct 25, 2018 8:30pm Oct 25, 2018 8:30pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Perhaps not now but wait for your channel to be a hit. everything you have shown can be easy to replicate and/or automated. Let me ask you in a different way. If your strategy decays and since it is your primary income producing, how long will it take to come up with another strategy (perhaps easy for your experience but hoping you get where I am going with this)? Now, the volume is tremendous in first hour and I know that is why you only trade the first hour to minimize the impact but in general, any visual trading strategy will/should...
Consider the cost and the stop placement.

How many contracts would it take to more price 12 ticks into a stop during times of high liquidity? It would be very expensive and very risky, especially in times where 1 tweet can change the world.

Lets say it has happened. Your strategy is now common knowledge. You see it occurring everyday. Everyone is doing it so you always end up getting slipped 5 or more ticks on your entries or you can't even get in from all the front runners. You have a hedge fund and you can drop massive amounts of contracts in the market if you want. You decide to take the other side of this trade now that everyone will be providing you liquidity.

Market opens, you spot the sell setup, you pull the buy trigger to take the other side. You set your iceberg maybe maybe 10 ticks below. Price slams right into it and stops. You get filled on 150 contracts at your level before the selling slows down. Some sellers exit, some hold. You hit the ask with 20 contract market orders at a time. Your buying plus the other guys who exit make price shoot up. You set your TP 1 tick in front of stops that were 12 ticks from their entry. You magically are able to unload you're entire position within 3 ticks from their stops. Successful day? Sure.

How many times can you do that before someone notices this happening on the T&S?
How many times can those trader lose to you before they give up?
How many losses can you take after someone studies the market and see's an opportunity to do to you what you just did to them?
How long before the day when you scare all those traders away and now you no longer have this opportunity and the original edge returns?
Ever wonder why things stop working for a while and seem to start working again?

If everyone learns the edge, it will be hard to enter for a little but the market is dynamic. It'll come back, that's why it pays to be consistent.
  • #8,512
  • Oct 25, 2018 8:37pm Oct 25, 2018 8:37pm
Good post LG this idea ain't new result still the same just be consistent to what consistently works and has worked even before any of us ever traded
  • #8,513
  • Oct 25, 2018 9:39pm Oct 25, 2018 9:39pm
Quoting magnumfreak
Wow! Check out that afternoon dumper. Down 460 ticks in 5 minutes.
Amazon, Google and Snap shares decline after earnings reports

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-ne...eports-n924586
  • #8,514
  • Oct 25, 2018 10:36pm Oct 25, 2018 10:36pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} Frontrunning a scalping/daytrading strategy just cannot happen on a large scale nor can traders on other side can take advantage of it due to liquidity limits and exchange rules. . There are limits to liquidity at each tick price. as orders are filled, it moves to the next ladder. If large numbers of traders try to get in at the same time, it's the same as a single large trader putting in a single large position. The will result in average price entry. You can see this from my last friday debacle. I put in just 36 contracts, and just by...
Thanks man. What a fantastic read. This cleared up a lot of my questions on order flow and the various players. This was precisely the response I was looking for. I will read it again with a fresh mind to absorb it fully :-

I had no freaking clue they have so many controls in place to make the market work so efficiently and yet we still make rogue traders and flash crashes lol
Staying in my lane...
  • #8,515
  • Edited Oct 26, 2018 3:13am Oct 25, 2018 10:48pm | Edited Oct 26, 2018 3:13am
Quoting LookinGood
{quote} Consider the cost and the stop placement. How many contracts would it take to more price 12 ticks into a stop during times of high liquidity? It would be very expensive and very risky, especially in times where 1 tweet can change the world. Lets say it has happened. Your strategy is now common knowledge. You see it occurring everyday. Everyone is doing it so you always end up getting slipped 5 or more ticks on your entries or you can't even get in from all the front runners. You have a hedge fund and you can drop massive amounts of contracts...
Thanks. This explanation helps in understanding the market dynamics. The reason I am asking these questions is for my own understanding of market structure. I am a big fan of "don't fight the market" i.e. "Do what what has to do". This simple rule has kept me away from trouble so studying price/volume interaction and making my own list helps. I am doing bat shit crazy stuff in simulation mode just for this reason (and I am also quite okay with understanding what/how algos operate) so screentime is helping m as well. One thing about NQ is absolutely crucial. Stay away from catching a falling knife. Trading bounce will blow thru you gut in a few seconds :- Hesitation during approach to pullback is absolutely a key requirement imo.

Griding is one of the first things I do to understand price behavior and validate my theories so today was definitely quite revealing. There is a method to my madness here :-

EDIT: Griding (well, my version of what I refer as "Recursive FIFO Grids") continues to work great today.....
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Staying in my lane...
  • #8,516
  • Oct 26, 2018 8:21am Oct 26, 2018 8:21am
Good volume already pouring into the market. Let's wrap up the week with a great Friday!
  • #8,517
  • Oct 26, 2018 8:42am Oct 26, 2018 8:42am
what more do i need ?
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on a postive roll...
  • #8,518
  • Oct 26, 2018 8:45am Oct 26, 2018 8:45am
Quoting Rmg
what more do i need ? {image}
Is that Net P/L?
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
  • #8,519
  • Oct 26, 2018 8:48am Oct 26, 2018 8:48am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks. This explanation helps in understanding the market dynamics. The reason I am asking these questions is for my own understanding of market structure. I am a big fan of "don't fight the market" i.e. "Do what what has to do". This simple rule has kept me away from trouble so studying price/volume interaction and making my own list helps. I am doing bat shit crazy stuff in simulation mode just for this reason (and I am also quite okay with understanding what/how algos operate) so screentime is helping m as well. One thing about NQ is...
Here's a grid.

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Grids can look good historically. But how does one trade them? It all comes back to your understanding of price movement. Gotta get lots of chart time in. Get our brains wired right.
  • #8,520
  • Oct 26, 2018 8:51am Oct 26, 2018 8:51am
Quoting capstone
{quote} Is that Net P/L?
yes
on a postive roll...
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