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Plan the Trade

  • #8,421
  • Oct 24, 2018 3:03pm Oct 24, 2018 3:03pm
Quoting hilmy83
1200 ticks...fucking hell
No bottom. Lol
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  • #8,422
  • Oct 24, 2018 3:06pm Oct 24, 2018 3:06pm
Never saw market down 1300 ticks lots of millions of dollars won and lost
  • #8,423
  • Oct 24, 2018 3:08pm Oct 24, 2018 3:08pm
nice pullback 6975 to ride it down
  • #8,424
  • Oct 24, 2018 3:17pm Oct 24, 2018 3:17pm
It will be interesting to see what happens after the 315 break. Lots of earnings coming out today after the bell.
  • #8,425
  • Oct 24, 2018 3:27pm Oct 24, 2018 3:27pm
Based on but ask ask 114 bid 66 looks like a sell
  • #8,426
  • Oct 24, 2018 3:29pm Oct 24, 2018 3:29pm
Bids came in before reopen
  • #8,427
  • Oct 24, 2018 4:07pm Oct 24, 2018 4:07pm
Quoting Divergence
Never saw market down 1300 ticks lots of millions of dollars won and lost
probably loss in live and wins in demo/sim lol
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Staying in my lane...
  • #8,428
  • Oct 24, 2018 4:15pm Oct 24, 2018 4:15pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} here are some stats most traders are net losers there. now with that said, we all still get up in the morning, turn that monitor and trade. nothing's changed. except the weather what's success in trading mean for you? 1 year 5 years? a decade ? how bout last 9 years net negative with 1 year to pull everything into positive?. stats are crap
stats to follow as a "guide".... and not to replicate someone's success. Trading stats, market stats, probabilistic trading and everything in-between is just a "game of chance with a binary outcome" at the end of your accounting period. just my opinion. I have seen many videos and this is the only logical conclusion I am able to ccome up with. The edge comes only from taking the chance to see what the possible outcome is.

I think Nik is wrong in saying the entries that Harold takes can be mechanized into a positive expectancy. Try taking every pullback and this system will fail... just like any other mechanical non-descretionary system out there.
Staying in my lane...
  • #8,429
  • Edited 4:52pm Oct 24, 2018 4:23pm | Edited 4:52pm
I don't take every pullback only those where a supply/demand/thrust bar exist look at this chart see supply twice
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  • #8,430
  • Oct 24, 2018 4:54pm Oct 24, 2018 4:54pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I think Nik is wrong in saying the entries that Harold takes can be mechanized into a positive expectancy. Try taking every pullback and this system will fail... just like any other mechanical non-descretionary system out there.
We can agree to disagree :-)

I stand by my statement that Harold trades completely mechanically. Indeed, he himself says it's totally objective. I will further add that i believe part of his edge is taking every one of his qualified setups, without skipping signals. A trader with the same skill and system as Harold that skips occasional signals will have lower expectancy in the medium/long run. (Also, for the record, i never suggested trading every pullback, but rather every qualified signal as per harold's system) (big difference).

That said, Harold's system is deceptively simple. Where i see most people committing errors is in how Harold defines 123's & 2b's. Another common error is the interpretations of the S/D bars. That is why i shared a simple OF based identifier to help newer traders with confirmation of what is and isnt a S/D bar.

At the end of the day any system is only a tiny piece of the equation. The trader is the most important piece, followed by the money management, trade management. Even the best edge in the world would not be profitable without these other pieces.
  • #8,431
  • Oct 24, 2018 4:58pm Oct 24, 2018 4:58pm
Wow nik you get me you must be a NEW YORKER
  • #8,432
  • Oct 24, 2018 5:01pm Oct 24, 2018 5:01pm
Quoting Divergence
Wow nik you get me you must be a NEW YORKER
All those bagels over the years made us think alike, :-).

Have to be honest Harold, took me a while to fully understand your system. Its more difficult than it initially seems. However, its a great system, and i can vouch for its positive expectancy. Great job for sharing and teaching it.
  • #8,433
  • Edited Oct 25, 2018 8:15am Oct 24, 2018 5:46pm | Edited Oct 25, 2018 8:15am
Quoting Nik-Nyc
{quote} All those bagels over the years made us think alike, :-). Have to be honest Harold, took me a while to fully understand your system. Its more difficult than it initially seems. However, its a great system, and i can vouch for its positive expectancy. Great job for sharing and teaching it.
Its not as hard as you think trading pullbacks in direction of current micro trend back to s or d trend changes with a 123 or 2b break and start looking for pullbacks the other way back to s and d along with my trade and money management that's the whole enchilada
  • #8,434
  • Oct 24, 2018 9:50pm Oct 24, 2018 9:50pm
Quoting Nik-Nyc
{quote} We can agree to disagree :-) I stand by my statement that Harold trades completely mechanically. Indeed, he himself says it's totally objective. I will further add that i believe part of his edge is taking every one of his qualified setups, without skipping signals. A trader with the same skill and system as Harold that skips occasional signals will have lower expectancy in the medium/long run. (Also, for the record, i never suggested trading every pullback, but rather every qualified signal as per harold's system) (big difference). That...
Perhaps I am too dense to understand the underlying complexity with the S/D bars and my lack of knowledge in volume bars is non-existant. Thrust bar (visually) is basically an engulfing bar in the opposite direction creating the potential SD "zone" for price to revisit in the future. Apart from checking the size and making a judgement call where to place the limit order (or skip it completely), I am not understanding what the "dynamics" is behind it apart from a visual check/confirm/enter and wait for either small loss or 2xR in TP. I am sure there is more to it from your perspective because of your vast knowledge in volume analysis (I wish I could make your indicator work!) but Harold is trading this visually what he sees on chart using price action only. Please enlighten us where the edge is in the structure of the PA setup itself. For a visual trader, it's pattern trading with some extreme experience in gauging in momentum of price arriving towards entry. How do you explain his entering of limit order and then cancelling the order as a non-decretionary style. Same applies to exiting with partial profits. If you stare at the same hour every day for so long, you kinda know what to do and that comes with pure screentime and experience imo.I just cannot be as simple as "do this and do that and let us all make some money". That's all I am saying. Healthy discussion so all good to have a little disagreement which stems from lack of my own understanding :-)
Staying in my lane...
  • #8,435
  • Oct 24, 2018 10:02pm Oct 24, 2018 10:02pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Perhaps I am too dense to understand the underlying complexity with the S/D bars and my lack of knowledge in volume bars is non-existant. Thrust bar (visually) is basically an engulfing bar in the opposite direction creating the potential SD "zone" for price to revisit in the future. Apart from checking the size and making a judgement call where to place the limit order (or skip it completely), I am not understanding what the "dynamics" is behind it apart from a visual check/confirm/enter and wait for either small loss or 2xR in TP. I am...
And while we are at this topic, take a look at my analysis on all Harold's video links. I looked at every one of them to come up with what you see in the screnshot here.

Some facts (as I understand it)

  1. Some of the older videos have market profile and other timeframe charts. i.e. experience
  2. Harold has been generating daily income as his bread and butter from the first hour i.e. focus and determination as his livelihood is at stake here!
  3. Harold has only one losing month in some years. This is also tied to his "take and run" everyday. He controls his GREED like no one else I have come across.
  4. Look at his stats. On an average, he is making only one profitable trade per day averaging 23 ticks! Now, I will admit, I did not listen to ALL his videos so I could be a bit off on the total number of trades taken every day so had to apply average to factor in trading costs, consecutive losses etc etc. There is a lot that I had to assume but law of large numbers is in his side to trade with confidence! Any noob would be shaken off to see the daily churn of gaining just 23 ticks on average... hence math is his edge! It is absolutely crucial to STOP trading after the first or second TP worth 3RR is hit ending with his trademarked "Good Day!" comment lol
  5. Plus, 30-second chart was incorporated as recently as this summer so there is that element of unknown in regards to longevity coupled with his experience in other areas of trading futures for so long.

With these facts, I conclude... trading his style is definitely possible. It will take time, practice, mindset, discipline, rigor, focus, pain, suffering etc etc which comes with any strategy in the long run. Hence my ask if any of his students have achieved success or still struggling.

Atleast, in this case, we are not listening to some idiot selling us promises. We are seeing it live everyday side by side, talking and discussing setups that we ALL see at the same time via a regulated feed.

Staying in my lane...
  • #8,436
  • Oct 24, 2018 11:51pm Oct 24, 2018 11:51pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} stats to follow as a "guide".... and not to replicate someone's success. Trading stats, market stats, probabilistic trading and everything in-between is just a "game of chance with a binary outcome" at the end of your accounting period. just my opinion. I have seen many videos and this is the only logical conclusion I am able to ccome up with. The edge comes only from taking the chance to see what the possible outcome is. I think Nik is wrong in saying the entries that Harold takes can be mechanized into a positive expectancy. Try taking...
i think D's strategy is pretty mechanical except for the TP process. some early exits due to sluggish move or due to nearing his daily profit take would be hard to replicate. so trying to get "proof" of it working from others would not necessarily reflect how D himself trade it.

the 30s chart pretty much gives more granularity in price moves to "open up" the price action to see these "micro" s/d. It also helps in minimizing risk. he's a scalper so i thnk that makes sense to go that way.

the 25 tick profit is just his hard take home per trade, nothing related to volatility or price action, but the R:R is in place to push edge further towards + expectancy

the whole idea is trading s/d in direction of momentum. it's a concept as old as trading itself.

i actually use this concept as well. just slightly differently by using vwap/volume profile patterns. but again it's the concept that matters, not the nitty grittty
  • #8,437
  • Oct 25, 2018 3:07am Oct 25, 2018 3:07am
Climbing up so fast, couldn't resist my demo itchy fingers.
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on a postive roll...
  • #8,438
  • Edited 8:45am Oct 25, 2018 8:26am | Edited 8:45am
Quoting Divergence
{quote} Its not as hard as you think trading pullbacks in direction of current micro trend back to s or d trend changes with a 123 or 2b break and start looking for pullbacks the other way back to s and d along with my trade and money management that's the whole enchilada
After spending ages and ages and ages trying to make trading work (simply because I enjoy it and are so fascinated with it) ... I have been "seeing" and practicing to trade that way for few months and are slowly making progress ... the plan, trade management (automated mostly) and money management are simple and powerful ... but it is that guy looking at me in the mirror that is the problem ... my mental framework as Trading in the Zone calls it ... that is what is taking time to sort out.

Personally I think this can work for anyone ... it is simple enough .. and we all use a version of it to "trade" our way to retirement anyway ... via opportunities than come over a lifetime of making mistakes and learning and growing and trying again.
Never give up !!!
  • #8,439
  • Oct 25, 2018 8:46am Oct 25, 2018 8:46am
VEEFX, maybe this will help you out...before H shows us anything, I'll bet $100 that he had a sell limit at 20.50...and won. Mechanical. I think you are overthinking this...and I'm saying that as someone who overthinks everything. I'll overthink the milk I buy! No joke!
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
  • #8,440
  • Oct 25, 2018 8:52am Oct 25, 2018 8:52am
And there is a good chance that he had a buy at 9500 on 9:38am and got a +2 ....
Never give up !!!
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