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"Ancient" Trading System

  • #21
  • Oct 18, 2018 1:43pm Oct 18, 2018 1:43pm
Hi FIT!
Thank you for sharing this. I found it insightful, giving me much food for thought. I like it! But ...
I ran a simple simulation on daily AUDUSD data spanning approximately 12 years, determining
(a) Daily buy/sell pressure and then taking the Open/Close differential of the following day as "profit"
(b) Weekly and daily buy/sell pressure and then taking the Open/Close differential of the following day as "profit" ONLY if the the daily and weekly pressures aligned.

Sadly, and much to my surprise, both returned a net loss over the period. I am not trying to trash your system, on the contrary, I like the principle a lot! I am just cautioning that additional filters need to be in place, as you indicated in your last post.

Keep it up, I will scrutinize the thread!
  • #22
  • Oct 19, 2018 12:40am Oct 19, 2018 12:40am
Quoting Cnegt
Hi FIT! Thank you for sharing this. I found it insightful, giving me much food for thought. I like it! But ... I ran a simple simulation on daily AUDUSD data spanning approximately 12 years, determining (a) Daily buy/sell pressure and then taking the Open/Close differential of the following day as "profit" (b) Weekly and daily buy/sell pressure and then taking the Open/Close differential of the following day as "profit" ONLY if the the daily and weekly pressures aligned. Sadly, and much to my surprise, both returned a net loss over the period. I...
Hi Cnegt,

Thank you for spend you time on the simulation. You're correct about the additional filters needed to increase the win rate.
Normally, on Monday and Tuesday I will follow Daily candle.Then Wednesday/Thursday I will follow Weekly candle.Friday more to logic trade or some time follow weekly candle especially when have a lot of red news.

As for now, I only share the basic concept on how to determine trading direction. I just don't have the idea what topic to discuss/share or how should be the flow of my explanation because all of it are important...Maybe I let you guys explore with the concept first, hopefully some will see the light at the end of a tunnel.


FIT
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  • #23
  • Edited 4:16am Oct 19, 2018 4:05am | Edited 4:16am
This week trade..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYWeekly.png Size: 25 KB


H4 timeframe.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYH4.png Size: 60 KB


# Fibonacci retracement tool only as a guide to measure how deep is price retrace. I personally prefer if price retrace up to 78 level.
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  • #24
  • Oct 21, 2018 10:27am Oct 21, 2018 10:27am
Quoting FinInsTrader
This week trade.. {image} H4 timeframe. {image} # Fibonacci retracement tool only as a guide to measure how deep is price retrace. I personally prefer if price retrace up to 78 level.
Great trade FinInsTrader

Looks like you have a bull session for next week on this market will you stay on EJ ?

Do you set a target or just go with price action?
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #25
  • Oct 21, 2018 1:22pm Oct 21, 2018 1:22pm
Hi FinInsTrader,

" I personally prefer if price retrace up to 78 level."

Please explain the reason or logic behind it.

Thanks
  • #26
  • Oct 22, 2018 12:15am Oct 22, 2018 12:15am
Quoting sponge
{quote} Great trade FinInsTrader Looks like you have a bull session for next week on this market will you stay on EJ ? Do you set a target or just go with price action?
Hi Sponge,

For EJ, based on weekly candle,its bullish bias..If we refer daily candle on Friday last week,it also bullish.So for today trade (Monday) I'll long EJ.

FIT
Close Trade At Profit
  • #27
  • Oct 22, 2018 12:19am Oct 22, 2018 12:19am
Quoting sspremj
Hi FinInsTrader, " I personally prefer if price retrace up to 78 level." Please explain the reason or logic behind it. Thanks

Hi Sspremj,

Level 78 Fib will give me the best risk to reward ratio if my stoploss slightly above 100 level.The only reason and logic.

FIT
Close Trade At Profit
  • #28
  • Oct 22, 2018 3:12am Oct 22, 2018 3:12am
Quoting FinInsTrader
{quote} Hi Sponge, For EJ, based on weekly candle,its bullish bias..If we refer daily candle on Friday last week,it also bullish.So for today trade (Monday) I'll long EJ. FIT
Looks like the move was over before London open, so we have a poor R/R?
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #29
  • Oct 22, 2018 3:31am Oct 22, 2018 3:31am
Today I want to share the characteristic / behavior of currency when measured using Fibonacci Retracement.

1. When price confine within level 0-38, most likely it will continue its current trend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYM15.png Size: 57 KB


-if you like pattern, this holding pattern sometime call flag, pennant, wedge and rectangle.
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  • #30
  • Oct 22, 2018 3:38am Oct 22, 2018 3:38am
Quoting sponge
{quote} Looks like the move was over before London open, so we have a poor R/R?
Hi Sponge,

Not poor R:R if your entry at 129.25...If H4 manage to close above 130.00, my next target will be 130.75...

FIT
Close Trade At Profit
  • #31
  • Oct 22, 2018 3:58am Oct 22, 2018 3:58am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYM5.png Size: 55 KB


# this is high risk entry because it against higher timeframe market structure.
H4 - downtrend
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  • #32
  • Oct 22, 2018 5:27am Oct 22, 2018 5:27am
Quoting FinInsTrader
{quote} Hi Sponge, Not poor R:R if your entry at 129.25...If H4 manage to close above 130.00, my next target will be 130.75... FIT
Hi FIT, That price happened around 1am UK
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #33
  • Oct 22, 2018 6:46am Oct 22, 2018 6:46am
Quoting Pulfx
{quote} hi what is ideal RR for this system 1:1 , 1:2, 1:3 ?
Hi Pulfx,

I can’t stated any fixed RR for the system,depend on what the market give you..for me,with 20-30pip SL my target TP normally 100+pip for weekly cndle trade...intraday trade with 15-20pip SL,usually my target around 30-50pip only...In the end,it depend on individual risk tolerance.how much you willing to lose in each trade?from that,you calculate your SL and lot size.

FIT
Close Trade At Profit
  • #34
  • Oct 22, 2018 6:51am Oct 22, 2018 6:51am
Quoting sponge
{quote} Hi FIT, That price happened around 1am UK
It around 10am my local time..would you mind share your trading approach?.maybe we can work on something..what I have in my is Open Range Breakout.
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  • #35
  • Oct 22, 2018 8:50am Oct 22, 2018 8:50am
Quoting FinInsTrader
{quote} It around 10am my local time..would you mind share your trading approach?.maybe we can work on something..what I have in my is Open Range Breakout.
My main approach is S&R, Fibs and volume.

Don't know what you have in mind but the time difference would make it difficult I think.
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #36
  • Oct 22, 2018 7:30pm Oct 22, 2018 7:30pm
Quoting sponge
{quote} Great trade FinInsTrader Looks like you have a bull session for next week on this market will you stay on EJ ? Do you set a target or just go with price action?
hi,, shouldnt it be bear session for next week since last week weekly candle showed bearish in control?
  • #37
  • Oct 23, 2018 3:53am Oct 23, 2018 3:53am
Quoting FinInsTrader
{image} # this is high risk entry because it against higher timeframe market structure. H4 - downtrend
This trade don't go as planned...should buy earlier.
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  • #38
  • Oct 23, 2018 4:07am Oct 23, 2018 4:07am
Quoting muqri
{quote} hi,, shouldnt it be bear session for next week since last week weekly candle showed bearish in control?
If you look closely at the weekly candle,it bullish...On monday,candle close as bear.So,for Tuesday, we will short EJ..When referring to weekly bias, this is good structure, where Monday & Tuesday price fall giving us weekly retracement and hopefully on Wednesday during London Open we can look for reversal area for long EJ.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYWeekly.png Size: 24 KB


Example of Preferred Market Structure below...( for SELL entry)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 50 KB
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  • #39
  • Oct 23, 2018 4:31am Oct 23, 2018 4:31am
Quoting FinInsTrader
Today I want to share the characteristic / behavior of currency when measured using Fibonacci Retracement. 1. When price confine within level 0-38, most likely it will continue its current trend. {image} -if you like pattern, this holding pattern sometime call flag, pennant, wedge and rectangle.
Another example for holding 0-38 Fib level..lets see how it goes.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDH4.png Size: 27 KB
Close Trade At Profit
  • #40
  • Oct 23, 2018 4:54am Oct 23, 2018 4:54am
Quoting muqri
{quote} hi,, shouldnt it be bear session for next week since last week weekly candle showed bearish in control?
Still think it's bullish according to the rules

The Fib in the buyers area might support but bearish below I think

Just a thought hope this is OK with you FIT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej fib.PNG Size: 34 KB
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
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