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The Swamp

  • #25,161
  • Edited 2:50pm Oct 19, 2018 2:34pm | Edited 2:50pm
Quoting BlueCirrus
{quote} The UM of the last leg down from 1.1620x is at 1.15374, but that is not the leg I typically use for projections. I view 1.15264 (mid of that same leg) as "halfback", known as a weak hands reference in MP parlance, and likely to be re-visited again soon. If it is indeed going lower, then I would look for an A-B-C type upward correction with the next leg up into 1573 to 1579 area.
maybe. could have been just a retrace. i seen this before.
my the 300% is the 88.6 fib i was talking about.

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i actually think this was it.
i think a wedge will be formed like this.

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  • #25,162
  • Oct 19, 2018 3:12pm Oct 19, 2018 3:12pm
cad cypher completed. i think rejection to the pip.
but bears want 4 pips higher.
people who put stops to break even may be stopped out if i am correct.

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  • #25,163
  • Oct 20, 2018 2:09am Oct 20, 2018 2:09am
Quoting imwim
{quote} As expected, the Russian guy compute the levels at a wrong time, always at 0:00 GMT (without the Daylight saving time) which is different than the broker rollover time, for example 17:00 NY time with the Daylight saving time, so different PreviousDailyClose price ... Except this fact, the levels are the same as computed with the formula in the SR_Levels.mq4 file, with PreviousDailyClose price at the broker rollover time ...
Maybe u can add GMT shift to your S/R indi
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #25,164
  • Edited 4:17am Oct 20, 2018 4:02am | Edited 4:17am
gu 2 harmonics on daily and path i think it will take.
the little blue bat may take it to the norm. one of those big moves in the wing is normal like the cypher i posted before.
i really like this bat.
then to the bigger gartley.

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  • #25,165
  • Oct 20, 2018 4:27am Oct 20, 2018 4:27am
eu 2165 is still valid above 1.13.
this is why i like the 88.6 so much.
a bat may be forming to 1.2412
it is many times worth the risk.

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  • #25,166
  • Oct 20, 2018 9:01am Oct 20, 2018 9:01am
How Institutions Position Themselves In Euro/Usd This Week

This week, institutions increased bearish bet 3rd week in a row , which was shown in the latest COT as of Tuesday, Oct 16, 2018.

The institutions net long Euro positions decreased last week by 13,202 contracts to net shorts 29,344 contracts,

Large amount long positions 21,498 were closed, and 8,296 short positions were closed as well. Now Longs total 140,817 contracts vs shorts total 170,161 contracts .

45% long exposure vs 55% short exposure, which 3% decreased in longs and 3% increased in shorts from the previous week

During COT week, Euro started at 1.1490, rallied to 1.1621 high, closed at 1.1573

Throughout the week, institutions used short covering to push up the price from 1.1430 low to 1.1620 high, sucked in new buyers so they offloaded their massive longs.

After COT, we saw Euro continued to drop back to 1.1432 low and then started to recover this Friday

Initial resistance is seen from 1.1530 to 1.1550 area, once that breaks, next daily supply zone is seen in 1.1575 to 1.1620 area, where institutions may unload their longs again.

Institutions Sentiment: Bearish

Please note institutions take weeks and months to build a position in the currency market.
Therefore, the bullish or bearish sentiment is more for a long term outlook, not intended for short term trading.
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  • #25,167
  • Edited Oct 21, 2018 2:35am Oct 20, 2018 12:25pm | Edited Oct 21, 2018 2:35am
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} Maybe u can add GMT shift to your S/R indi
Here it is ... RolloverOffset = 0..23 ... and finally the Russian guy SR levels with precision of 1 pipette (real formula) ... by copying the ex4 file no MT4 restart process needed ...

For a GMT+x MT4 server RolloverOffset = x, while for a GMT-y MT4 server RolloverOffset = 24-y ...
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 SR_Levels__4.mq4   15 KB | 338 downloads
File Type: ex4 SR_Levels__4.ex4   17 KB | 301 downloads
I am who I am
  • #25,168
  • Oct 20, 2018 12:42pm Oct 20, 2018 12:42pm
Quoting BlueCirrus
{quote} Thanks IBB, but I'm referring to the trend stops, not the S/R levels. I reverse engineered those back in June with a fib tool (27.64%, 55.28% and 100% of yesterday's range added to and subtracted from, yesterday's close). Even added a target 4... {image}
The Russian guy uses 27.48%, 54.96% and 100% ...
I am who I am
  • #25,169
  • Oct 20, 2018 12:55pm Oct 20, 2018 12:55pm
Quoting imwim
{quote} The Russian guy uses 27.48%, 54.96% and 100% ...
I think his was How does Boulder calculate Trend Stop in Time (Hrs)
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #25,170
  • Edited 1:24pm Oct 20, 2018 1:01pm | Edited 1:24pm
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} I think his was How does Boulder calculate Trend Stop in Time (Hrs)
From my observations, Boulder's Trend Stop in Time (Hrs) is a bit delayed from the moment when the trend SR lines was broken ... H1 candle closed outside the trend SR lines channel ... Boulder uses horizontal SR lines a bit away from the trend SR lines channel ... or the angle with Trend Stop in Time (Hrs) decrease/increase hour by hour is different from the angle of trend SR lines channel, so a delay appears in detection of trend stop ...

Btw Boulder is really afraid of fake trend SR lines breakouts ... so maybe her rule is delayed but away from the fake trend SR lines breakouts ...
I am who I am
  • #25,171
  • Oct 20, 2018 1:50pm Oct 20, 2018 1:50pm
Quoting BlueCirrus
{quote} IBB has a pretty good chance of getting his short down to 1474 - 1480 first though.
Possible Scenario
EU H1
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A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #25,172
  • Edited 3:20pm Oct 20, 2018 2:30pm | Edited 3:20pm
Quoting imwim
{quote} Here it is ... RolloverOffset = 0..23 ... and finally the Russian guy SR levels with precision of 1 pipette (real formula) ... by copying the ex4 file no MT4 restart process needed ... {file} {file}
i changed mine too.
how many hours should the offset be?
lines seem to work better.

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interestingly whatever time shift i use it seems to work a little.
maybe i should make an indicator that averages all and see what happens.

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  • #25,173
  • Oct 20, 2018 2:58pm Oct 20, 2018 2:58pm
Quoting imwim
{quote} The Russian guy uses 27.48%, 54.96% and 100% ...
Thanks, but close enough for levels that are 100% arbitrary points of reference on the chart.

I actually prefer to use the 14 day ADR instead of yesterday's range: What if yesterday was an NR4 (Narrow Range) day? - Or, a WR4 (Wide Range) day?

The targets based upon yesterday's range are not going to be very helpful in those situations. I've seen at least two or three other range based targeting indicators using various percentages of the previous range or average range, and they all have a fair hit rate - Sometimes they work like magic and sometimes they don't. My MP software package uses 50%, 100%, 200%, etc. of the current session's IB (Initial Balance).....Same thing -- works like magic sometimes and sometimes not.

With the Fib tool, there is the flexibility to use any range that you prefer, including the average range of other time frames such as H4, H1, etc, say, for scalping intraday.

Here's a couple of examples of using the 14 day ADR instead of the previous day's range on the ES from this Thursday and Friday:
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  • #25,174
  • Oct 20, 2018 2:59pm Oct 20, 2018 2:59pm
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} Possible Scenario EU H1 {image}
Yep, was thinking about the same thing............
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  • #25,175
  • Oct 20, 2018 11:18pm Oct 20, 2018 11:18pm
Quoting BlueCirrus
{quote} Thanks, but close enough for levels that are 100% arbitrary points of reference on the chart. I actually prefer to use the 14 day ADR instead of yesterday's range: ... Here's a couple of examples of using the 14 day ADR instead of the previous day's range on the ES from this Thursday and Friday: {image} {image}
Here it is ... ATR_Period = 1 (default value for Russian guy) ... also a fix for gap at the rollover time (Russian guy don't miss any gap occurrence) ... by copying the ex4 file no MT4 restart process needed ...
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 SR_Levels__4.mq4   15 KB | 394 downloads
File Type: ex4 SR_Levels__4.ex4   17 KB | 338 downloads
I am who I am
  • #25,176
  • Oct 21, 2018 5:52am Oct 21, 2018 5:52am
Quoting imwim
{quote} Here it is ... ATR_Period = 1 (default value for Russian guy) ... also a fix for gap at the rollover time (Russian guy don't miss any gap occurrence) ... by copying the ex4 file no MT4 restart process needed ... {file} {file}

???

I think you missed the whole point..............They are arbitrary levels and I personally have no overbearing interest in the "mystical Russian levels" as opposed to any other range based price targets.

And, I'm not going to put those big, fat, fuzzy, pastel colored lines all the way across my chart.

Also, you do not ever "need" to restart MT4 when installing indicators --- you can just right click the indicators list and click "refresh". Does the same thing.

And lastly, sixteen one hundredths of one percent and 32 one hundredths of one percent variation respectively on those magical targets from what some seem to think is the Russian version of Merlin the Magician, concocted by crunching some fibonacci numbers, is not going to impact my bottom line in any way, shape or form.

I looked at this about four months ago, assessed it and set it over to the side. It's something that I glance at out of the corner of my eye occasionally, and that is the extent of my interest on this particular subject.

Concentrate on that which is important - making money trading..............All else is secondary.
  • #25,177
  • Oct 21, 2018 3:48pm Oct 21, 2018 3:48pm
looking like a slight 4 pips gap up..1515
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #25,178
  • Oct 21, 2018 4:35pm Oct 21, 2018 4:35pm
is anyone having trouble login on to oanada?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #25,179
  • Oct 21, 2018 4:37pm Oct 21, 2018 4:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
is anyone having trouble login on to oanada?
nope, fine over here
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #25,180
  • Oct 21, 2018 4:48pm Oct 21, 2018 4:48pm
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} nope, fine over here
had to reload a servers,, good now//
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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