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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #7,821
  • Oct 19, 2018 1:55pm Oct 19, 2018 1:55pm
Quoting bistolis
{quote} Hi yomi I am always afraid to jump in after such big candles on the news. what is your plan when taking these trades?
After every news release, PA will actually reflects everything about that news released.

Looking at that big candle with shadow - pullback after the news release. And look at the next 2 candles, tells me that the price is going up.

My plan is to trade PA after the news release - the only thing that can overcome any news release is the knowledge of PA.


Happy Trading,
Yomi.
Time always comes before price
  • #7,822
  • Oct 19, 2018 2:00pm Oct 19, 2018 2:00pm
EURCAD M5 PASR Trend Trading:
Quoting fxrabbi
EURCAD M5 PASR Trend Trading: Happy Trading, Yomi. {image}
Keeping your hand in on M5 I see. Well done, as always. It becomes a bit like riding a bike - once you have learned it, practiced it and done it - you never forget!

I looked at this pair and its sister, GBPCAD at 7:30am PDT (my time) but fortune smiled on me today as I chose EURNZD (Fat City) and GBPNZD instead.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,823
  • Oct 19, 2018 2:45pm Oct 19, 2018 2:45pm
Quoting JCMPete
CadJpy Analysis {quote} Hi landax Busy catching up on the posts and I see you have already had some good feedback on this pair. Here is an extract from my trading journal on CadJpy: Big Boss trend up but price at resistance. Boss - immediate trend down after Shooting Star. Also confirmed Swing High. Worker - H, HL and confirmed Swing High on Strat Shadow. Found Support on 200 EMA and SR. Decision to go short probably premature. Trading into Boss Support and 200EMA. 4hour beyond 200 EMA but also resting on support. Let's see what happens… These notes...

Thanks for your reply Pete!

It's true that the channel established since end of 2016 is to be taken into account for the next months!

Do nothing on this pair, observe it and switch to another

good red wine and especially good rest!
  • #7,824
  • Oct 19, 2018 3:24pm Oct 19, 2018 3:24pm
NZDCAD H4 Taking profit now

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCADH4.png Size: 61 KB





AUDCAD H4 was a loss (30 pips), win some, you lose some but make sure your losses are MUCH smaller(see above)!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCADH4.png Size: 57 KB
Private Msgs are turned off to weirdos, loafs and brain drainers
  • #7,825
  • Oct 20, 2018 12:46am Oct 20, 2018 12:46am
Quoting strat
EURCAD M5 PASR Trend Trading: {quote} Keeping your hand in on M5 I see. Well done, as always. It becomes a bit like riding a bike - once you have learned it, practiced it and done it - you never forget! I looked at this pair and its sister, GBPCAD at 7:30am PDT (my time) but fortune smiled on me today as I chose EURNZD (Fat City) and GBPNZD instead.
Is likely that you see more of my M5 posting, because I have rescheduled my time to meet the first 3hrs of London Open and another first 3hrs of NY open as from next week by His grace.

Happy to hear the good news on the Fat City........

Thank you for your guidance here.


Happy Weekend,
Yomi
Time always comes before price
  • #7,826
  • Oct 20, 2018 3:23am Oct 20, 2018 3:23am
Thank you Strat for your new reply, I appreciate it!
I always read the replies addressed to me several times.

I am pretty much reading/following both threads at the same time.. I was reading here that is best to post while learning THE PATH to accelerate the process; I will do that! And to keep it as real as possible I will post trades that I am taking or are in progress...

So here is another one:

AUDCAD H1
I know the timeframes I want want to trade (suitable for me): mostly 15M & H1 and rarely M5 or H4.
Learning from my previous post with a trade (and reading the first thread) I realized that I didn't put PASR first, so no more charts without resistance and support from now on; the black horizontal lines are big boss r/s and magenta are boss r/s

The setup:

  1. Big Boss (D1) - while in an overall downtrend, we're in a pullback leg up
    Attached Image (click to enlarge)
    Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD - D1.PNG Size: 62 KB
  2. Boss (H4) - moving up, higher low, rejection candles right on 20 ma
    Attached Image (click to enlarge)
    Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD - H4.PNG Size: 42 KB
  3. Worker (H1) - higher high, cup & handle formation, bullish engulfing on move up
    Attached Image (click to enlarge)
    Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD - H1.PNG Size: 59 KB

The trade:

  1. Entry: on H1 on purple H4 resistance breakout
  2. Target: I have on H4 two targets: first with orange and second with magenta. I placed my target at the far magenta line but because we're not hopping and guessing anymore, we just wait to see how the price reacts at the first orange target.
    Note on the first target: there is also resistance confluence with the dotted ma; so more likely the price will react strongly here
  3. Stop: below the H1 minor swing (note to self: "read more about the confirmed swings until you get the concept")

I know I took the trade before NY open but I figured this is a swing trade and this aspect doesn't carry that much weight; I would like to be confirmed or corrected on this please!

Also I know this is one of the least volatile pairs but I think it is okay to use it for target practice... for now

Thank you!

Val
  • #7,827
  • Oct 20, 2018 4:18am Oct 20, 2018 4:18am
Quoting strat
AUDCAD {quote} Thank you BTS, huatzhi and Rub for your comments -TRADERS HELPING TRADERS Big Boss: We can SEE how important this PRICE level/area/zone is to this pair by the PRICE ACTION from it. We can also SEE the sentiment of the BIG BOYS. {image} Boss: We can SEE a potential target with lots of confluence {image} Worker: We can SEE the obstacles/wobble areas the Worker has to negotiate if it is to reach that potential target. {image}
Quoting Rub
{quote} I was going to post the same pair. First things first, why did you post in the order of worker, boss, big boss? Analysis should be from the big boss down. Big boss: Ranging between 0.9100 and 1.030ish, recently been in a downtrend below the strat shadow. Price is well extended from the 20 EMA. Boss: inside a weekly control candle, testing resistance, currently in a downtrend. Also has price quite extended. Worker: Testing the strat shadow at the top of a weekly control candle, with confluence of resistance and a gap that has been filled....
Having reviewed this trade, I realized I shouldn't have taken it because of the boss candle. Regardless of the 1:1 risk:reward into major support. See first two charts.

Quoting Rub
Trying to see more than just the immediate candles. Market structure etc. etc. {image} {image} {image}
How this wouldn't played out (third chart). I see one clear price action by for about 1:1 to resistance.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCADWeekly.png Size: 53 KB
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  • #7,828
  • Oct 20, 2018 4:25am Oct 20, 2018 4:25am
Quoting fxmarvel
Thank you Strat for your new reply, I appreciate it! I always read the replies addressed to me several times. I am pretty much reading/following both threads at the same time.. I was reading here that is best to post while learning THE PATH to accelerate the process; I will do that! And to keep it as real as possible I will post trades that I am taking or are in progress... So here is another one: AUDCAD H1 I know the timeframes I want want to trade (suitable for me): mostly 15M & H1 and rarely M5 or H4. Learning from my previous post with a trade...
To me, that looks well done. Nothing to add, except make sure to keep an eye on price action at the level it's sitting at now.
  • #7,829
  • Oct 20, 2018 6:15am Oct 20, 2018 6:15am
Quoting BeyondTheSea
NZDCAD H4 Taking profit now {image} AUDCAD H4 was a loss (30 pips), win some, you lose some but make sure your losses are MUCH smaller(see above)! {image}
I took the same ones but based on Daily.

NZDCAD WORKER (winner so far)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 69 KB


AUDCAD WORKER (lose)
I'm posting this one knowing I was advised by Strat and others not to take this one. But I'm doing it for everyone to learn from losing/bad trades, even myself (hopefully).
This trade was based on my post 7729 and some replies came from fellow traders in posts 7730, 7732,7749.
Apart from the reasons I gave, I kept in mind Dr Joe theory (price is falling down till it stops falling down).
I recognize I wasn't 100% sure about this one (RR wasn't good among other things) and I was impatient (that's something I have to focus on asap).
Nevertheless, I went with the minimum position size(1 micro lot) so I'm guessing that when I'm not 100% sure about my analysis or everything I have analyzed is not lined up I should stay away.

Pd. I made some notes on the chart I added to my journal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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IF IT DOESN'T FEEL RIGHT - IT'S NOT RIGHT!
  • #7,830
  • Oct 20, 2018 8:08am Oct 20, 2018 8:08am
Quoting Rub
{quote} This is a good go at it, but I think you mean hammer to go long, not shooting star. Notice the area on big boss price has reacted from, I notice you've marked it on boss. Seems to be a pretty significant area. I think you and landax have the right idea. Good position to wait and see what price action shows. {quote} Landax, I posted on this a couple of pages back, as did Eurotrader17 in post 7729 here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...6#post11586486
Quoting strat
Shooting Star & Hammer {quote} Shooting star with BUEB confirmed I did not really consider that shooting star another HL though it isn't wrong I think Either this is very careless or you really do not know the difference between our Shooting Star and Hammer!
That was careless. Shooting star could only happen on swing high while hammer are on swing low.
  • #7,831
  • Oct 20, 2018 8:41am Oct 20, 2018 8:41am
Quoting fxmarvel
Thank you Strat for your new reply, I appreciate it! I always read the replies addressed to me several times. I am pretty much reading/following both threads at the same time.. I was reading here that is best to post while learning THE PATH to accelerate the process; I will do that! And to keep it as real as possible I will post trades that I am taking or are in progress... So here is another one: AUDCAD H1 I know the timeframes I want want to trade (suitable for me): mostly 15M & H1 and rarely M5 or H4. Learning from my previous post with a trade...
Hi fxmarvel,

I have two question. I see you have an SR around 0.933 on your worker chart. I wonder is there any reason why that is not your first target? I also see you only have one trade on your chart. How do you manage your trade with two targets (Do you partial sell your trade when your target hit)?
  • #7,832
  • Edited 10:54am Oct 20, 2018 10:17am | Edited 10:54am
Quoting Eurotrader17
{quote} I took the same ones but based on Daily. NZDCAD WORKER (winner so far) {image} AUDCAD WORKER (lose) I'm posting this one knowing I was advised by Strat and others not to take this one. But I'm doing it for everyone to learn from losing/bad trades, even myself (hopefully). This trade was based on my post 7729 and some replies came from fellow traders in posts 7730, 7732,7749. Apart from the reasons I gave, I kept in mind Dr Joe theory (price is falling down till it stops falling down). I recognize I wasn't 100% sure about this one (RR wasn't...
Good trades and and good trade management. Keep doing these and don't worry too much about the losing trades; it's part of the business. Your trade management was OK I thought.
My H4 AUDCAD entry was 3 days after yours with a 2nd touch of the WCC and resistance from the 200 . It was news that took it out and could have gone either way. Looking back I had 3 candles telling me to close it at profit but I'm OK with it because I can't get every trade right. It's one of thousands.

Continue to accept the loss before you trade it and exercise discipline, adjusting your SL after your trade is very advanced trading and if not done properly will wreck your trading and your edge. Get the winners consistent before you even think about how to work to reduce your losing/draw down trades - its a cost of the business and a place your little people need appeasing. Trade small like a professional.
Private Msgs are turned off to weirdos, loafs and brain drainers
  • #7,833
  • Oct 20, 2018 10:51am Oct 20, 2018 10:51am
Quoting fxmarvel
Thank you Strat for your new reply, I appreciate it! I always read the replies addressed to me several times. I am pretty much reading/following both threads at the same time.. I was reading here that is best to post while learning THE PATH to accelerate the process; I will do that! And to keep it as real as possible I will post trades that I am taking or are in progress... So here is another one: AUDCAD H1 I know the timeframes I want want to trade (suitable for me): mostly 15M & H1 and rarely M5 or H4. Learning from my previous post with a trade...
Hi FXMarvel

Good entry. I can see your logic in your profit levels but if you are trading H1 maybe you should re-assess what you are trading because to get to 9460 is going to take a trend (which we are in) not a swing. 9320 will be an important test level for you.

With this said you need to manage this trade as a trend trade on H1 IF this is your PLAN, think about where that H1 trend started, where it has been, where it is now, where you think it might go and where your stoploss is.

Well done so far and good luck with it but be prepared to accept bigger swings on that H1 trend.

PS what is that orange MA anyway?

Cheers

BTS
Private Msgs are turned off to weirdos, loafs and brain drainers
  • #7,834
  • Oct 20, 2018 11:12am Oct 20, 2018 11:12am
M5 PASR Trend Trading

Quoting fxrabbi
{quote} Is likely that you see more of my M5 posting, because I have rescheduled my time to meet the first 3hrs of London Open and another first 3hrs of NY open as from next week by His grace. Happy to hear the good news on the Fat City........ Thank you for your guidance here. Happy Weekend, Yomi
I have rescheduled my time to meet the first 3hrs of London Open and another first 3hrs of NY open as from next week

Please save some pips for the rest of us then (especially me as I will be signing on as you sign off!)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,835
  • Oct 20, 2018 1:27pm Oct 20, 2018 1:27pm
Quoting strat
M5 PASR Trend Trading {quote} I have rescheduled my time to meet the first 3hrs of London Open and another first 3hrs of NY open as from next week Please save some pips for the rest of us then (especially me as I will be signing on as you sign off!)
Yes Boss......
Time always comes before price
  • #7,836
  • Oct 21, 2018 8:25am Oct 21, 2018 8:25am
Learning Strat's PASR following the Path

Quoting strat
PASR - THE PATH {quote} Thank you, huatzhi, you are a very smart person. Not wanting to take anything away from what you have posted and your valuable experience but there are many different ways to learn depending on a person's ability to absorb and apply information. JCMPete did, and is doing, his learning in a different manner so I am interested in his comments on this. I've been making the same mistake for past few days as well Please post so we can help
Hi Strat / huatzhi and Victoria

I was taking a bit of time to think about how to go about answering this in a way that might be of use to other students starting on the path so I will try to keep it as simple as possible but first as a bit of background on where I came from:

I landed on one of Strat's threads searching for something or the other on the web on Forex trends and lucky for me I got referred here where I found an honest approach to share trading experience with integrity and a no nonsense approach.

Before landing here I have had a love/hate relationship trading forex for a number of years using Elliot waves, Fibonacci,channels and trend lines. The other indicators never really resonated with me so I have largely left all the other stuff alone. Although I have never blown an entire account I was never a consistently profitable trader either. It would literally take me weeks and sometimes months to build my account and then have all my profits and some wiped out over night due to some to me non understandable market actions and behaviors. I also found that I typically bought when I should be selling and selling when I should be buying. So, this was my basic problem, trying to establish where price might turn around or continue, hence my fascination with Elliot Wave Theory and Fibbonaci contractions/ expansions. I then found Donchian Channels which same as EW and Fibbo's look incredibly straight forward and logical in retrospect, but looking forward? Needless to say, it did not make me money, just kept me intrigued enough to keep on spending money.

The point is I think we all get disillusioned with what we are trying and then keep on searching for the holy grail in trading. I know I was seriously disillusioned at the time and set out to prove once and for all to myself that Forex Trading either works or doesn't work and if it prove not to work I committed to myself I would pack it in for ever and focus on other endeavors. Once again, lucky for me I landed here. Strange how fate works when you really commit to something...

Any way, after landing here I very quickly realized that something different was on the go here with a different and confident message being preached on which I started nibbling and was hooked before long! What hooked me was Dr Joe's story as told by Strat.

Problem was and this brings me to the question being asked: How does one go about following the path? I am sure there are many ways but to me a path has only two outcomes, a start and a finish. So you begin at start, pass go and collect $100 on the way to finish as the Monopoly game rules state. But what happens if you are not lucky enough to start at the beginning and fall of a cliff onto the path somewhere in the middle, which way is the right way to go to get to the end destination, right or left?

And I think this is the exact problem people landing on STRAT's PATH faces. Which way to go? Where to start? What to read and what to leave out? And the biggie I guess is: How quick can I apply Strat's method and print money before breakfast at the kitchen table? In today's world of instant gratification this is probably the biggest stumbling block for students following the path.

As every one landing on any thread and finding something that intrigues them I quickly skipped to the end jumping around here and there on the two threads to see if I could quickly get it or move on to something else or somewhere else ( I was on a quest to find the holy grail, remember! )

I soon realized that everyone was instructed to go to the beginning of the path and start there and not stop until you get back to where you were instructed to do so...but is it really worth spending all that time going through ancient history when you can just jump in at the end (the deep end by the way ) ask a few questions and Bob's your Aunt?

I also saw that there was a disconnect of what was being taught at the end of Thread Two to what was taught at the beginning of Thread One.

  1. In the beginning there was...

    1. PASR
    2. All squiggly line funny farm indicators are chucked out the back door
    3. Only long term analysis of charts, daily and longer time frames, anything shorter was frowned upon.
    4. Channels and trend lines were used along with support and resistance
    5. Patterns such as coils was freely discussed
    6. and using SOME indicators such as Moving Averages, Volumes and Fibonacci was okay
    7. Even Trading Naked was cool...

  2. In the end there was...

    1. PASR
    2. STRAT Shadow
    3. All squiggly line funny farm indicators are still chucked out the back door
    4. Long term analysis of charts AND short term time frames were now analysed. Lo and behold! 5 Minute charts and trades is now the flavor of the day!
    5. Channels and trend lines no longer actively displayed on charts, for a newbie it seems they are no longer used??
    6. Patterns and Coils no longer deemed important as well as Volume Indicators, Fibonacci and so on...

It was therefor clear to me that Strat's method had evolved over time from where it was in 2009 to where is now, still teaching PASR but seemingly different...

Being who I am I needed to UNDERSTAND how this evolution over time took place and at the same time I was not all that comfortable posting charts for analysis using strategies from 2009 when everyone else was using the new improved and snazzy 2018 model Start Shadow! But wait there's more...PASR was still there!!

So the instruction from Strat to begin at the beginning is absolutely sound in my mind and also knowing where I wanted to go (I was on a quest, remember!) helped me to get started on my way on the path.

  1. End goal - Either become a profitable trader or give it up entirely - no more time spent teasing myself with maybe this or that.
  2. Commitment - I liked what I saw and read on the Strat's threads so I COMMITTED myself to follow the PATH by FOLLOWING instructions and LEARN to trade from those who have passed GO and collected $100 on the way to the finish. As far as commitment goes, as mentioned elsewhere on the path, you face yourself in the mirror every morning when you comb your hair or whatever...if you cannot commit the the bloke in the mirror it means nothing at all...only the chap in the mirror knows the truth in your heart.

  1. STEP One on the PATH - Understand the Theory of the Method:

    1. Begin at the beginning - I personally cannot read a manual from it's last page to the front page...maybe not inclined that way I guess.
    2. The index of the path was a great help to me:

      1. First and foremost it gave me an overview of the method and where to start stuff.
      2. I admit to having a few false starts before really getting going but using the index helped me.

    3. Reading the PDF documents of Strats Method and old website was the next best thing I could on the path and is my recommendation to all before delving in depth into the threads

      1. It provides an overview and summary of the method which you can use to fill in the blanks as you progress on the path.
      2. The PDf's form the framework - the content of the threads the detail

    4. Next, READ,READ and READ Strats post about Dr Joe. You have to get what is being said in this post for the rest of the content in the threads to make sense.
    5. Then start at the beginning of thread one and READ not SKIM to understand.

      1. Take the time to UNDERSTAND before moving on. My way of learning is to first try and understand before testing my understanding by making a post - if ok move on.There is a lot of theory to cover in the threads
      2. Summarize and document key topics in away that makes sense to your self. Here are the topics that I picked up on and was important to me as I progressed through the threads

        1. Basic Price Action
        2. Basic PASR
        3. Confirming Swing Highs and Lows
        4. Money Management
        5. MT4
        6. Support and Resistance
        7. Screenshots of Example Charts
        8. Spreadsheets
        9. Strat Shadow
        10. Strat Trend Trading
        11. Swing PASR
        12. Time Frames
        13. Trading Plan
        14. Trading Psycho
        15. Trend Lines
        16. Weekly Control Candles

    6. AFTER covering the theory and testing my understanding with posts along the way I got to

  2. Step TWO on the PATH

    1. Use thousands of hours to Study thousands of charts
    2. By thoroughly going through the threads I have already been fortunate to have seen thousands of charts with example on them...pure gold
    3. Doing the F12 exercises
    4. Looking at what others on posting and comparing their logic with your own. Comment on these charts as much as possible and post your own for comparison
    5. look at historic charts across all time frames looking for PASR to build recognition in to my mind and subconscious mind.
    6. Once comfortable start moving on to:

  1. Step THREE of the PATH

    1. To quote Yomi - Trade Live on the HARD RIGHT EDGE!!
    2. This is where the tire tread meets the road applying all of what I have waffled about above:

      1. Monthly Analysis of the Big Boss
      2. Weekly Analysis of the Boss
      3. Daily Analysis of the Worker

    3. Placing paper trades until it becomes simple to do so

  1. Step 4 of the PATH -

    1. Trade real live money
    2. Become a consistent profitable Trader ( I am not there yet...)
    3. BUT I WILL GET THERE!!

Pardon the long post but what i thought would be a fairly straight forward answer became more involved as I went along. I hope the above helps and am more than willing to discuss my thoughts on learning as this helps me to better understand what I am learning as well.

Regards
Pete

  • #7,837
  • Oct 21, 2018 1:54pm Oct 21, 2018 1:54pm
Quoting JCMPete
Learning Strat's PASR following the Path {quote} Hi Strat / huatzhi and Victoria I was taking a bit of time to think about how to go about answering this in a way that might be of use to other students starting on the path so I will try to keep it as simple as possible but first as a bit of background on where I came from: I landed on one of Strat's threads searching for something or the other on the web on Forex trends and lucky for me I got referred here where I found an honest approach to share trading experience with integrity and a no nonsense...

Great post, really bravo!

I've also seen differences on thread one and two, the method is now applicable to any time frame.

Trend lines are less and less used in our examples but are always useful.

I recognized myself by reading your post, through the different steps of Strat to become always profitable (which I'm not)

You have done well to show the importance of commenting with graphs and analysis because it allows to test our logic in relation to that of others and to progress also.

  • #7,838
  • Oct 21, 2018 2:19pm Oct 21, 2018 2:19pm
Hello all, I've been meaning to get back into price action trading and posting some positions here after a break and some severe disillusionment with the markets. Now with fresh eyes I'm even questioning how to identify the trend for a pair.

As I see it, the trend you pick up on for the big boss/boss/worker is wholly dependent on whether you're looking at a week, a month, a year, or 10 years of data and a directional bias for a year's worth of price of action means absolutely nothing when 6 months or 2 years gives a completely different trend. It also seems to me that it's far more useful to clearly define the big boss/boss/worker as a stretch of time rather than a time frame, which is just a consolidation of prices, when looking for short and long term trends.

For example, the long term trend for USD/JPY is completely different when looking at price starting from April 2018 (uptrend) versus Jan 2017 (downtrend) vs 2015 (downtrend) vs 2013 (uptrend) etc. And this gets more complicated for me when determining how far back to look for long/short/shorter term trends, if there are such things, and if they align with one another or whether it's my own bias on direction completing the puzzle. I'd like to hear from more experienced traders on how they identify a trend considering how susceptible it is to change when taking into account more or less data on price for a pair.

I'm also quite curious on how some here manage to profit on the M5 timeframe using PASR. There just seems to be far too much noise in an already volatile market at those time frames. PA always struck me as low risk low stress trading on the longer time frames using previously tested price areas and price action. The margin for error seems too unforgiving when trading H1 and below.

Cheers and good luck.
  • #7,839
  • Oct 21, 2018 3:34pm Oct 21, 2018 3:34pm
Hello All !!!

After 2 weeks and 3000 miles I am back to my trading desk.

Need to get my routine going and spend some time on the path. Will be burying my head into charts. I want to get back "In Touch" with the rhythm of the market.

Not to mention a lot of posts here on the thread.

Good to be on the path.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #7,840
  • Oct 21, 2018 3:54pm Oct 21, 2018 3:54pm
Just returned from a trip through Ontario and Quebec to visit family for the past week, so will begin posting again this week.

Regards
Terr
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