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Let's Trade Options

  • #16,041
  • Oct 19, 2018 12:41pm Oct 19, 2018 12:41pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} Well, took advantage of the pop with: HES Nov2 64.5 CALL up to $3.05 from $2.05 OXY Nov2 72 CALL up to $2.40 from $1.55 SWK Nov2 126 CALL @ $1.80 still open SWK is being stubborn, but still a good play. So before the end of the day, I'll also be looking at the Nov2 123 CALL @ $1.95 or better.
SWK looks like free fall , 120 level didn't stop it and next is 110. Would you please explain the reasons to get LONG on this stock ? thanks
  • #16,042
  • Oct 19, 2018 12:51pm Oct 19, 2018 12:51pm
Yep, I see that, my mistake on the expiration date.

It wasn't toxic assets being dumped that caused the spike, they beat earnings yesterday after the close with strong 2019 guidance. I doubt you see it drop before the close today.
  • #16,043
  • Oct 19, 2018 12:53pm Oct 19, 2018 12:53pm
Added the following:

SWK Nov2 123 CALL @ $1.95
  • #16,044
  • Oct 19, 2018 1:09pm Oct 19, 2018 1:09pm
Quoting moneymaker2
Yep, I see that, my mistake on the expiration date. It wasn't toxic assets being dumped that caused the spike, they beat earnings yesterday after the close with strong 2019 guidance. I doubt you see it drop before the close today.
I read the news too but I don't believe on news or earnings. I never understood what is good about having an earnings of 1$ or few cents per share and on a single day you can lose 10$ value on your shares.
  • #16,045
  • Oct 19, 2018 1:20pm Oct 19, 2018 1:20pm
I agree. Earnings and analyst's comments and upgrades/downgrades can make stocks do some pretty weird things. For me, that is the reason I don't trade options on stocks coming out with earnings before I expect my moves to occur. But for The Fool, he has the knowledge and expertise to make money during the earnings season. Since I don't trade like he does, I just stay away from those with earnings during my time period...too difficult to predict what will happen, and since I'm just trading straight PUTS/CALLS, that can be a very bad thing. Unfortunately, you're experiencing that with PYPL today.
  • #16,046
  • Oct 19, 2018 1:44pm Oct 19, 2018 1:44pm
Just checking on the chart PYPL. Unfortunatelly somebody doesn't want the price to go below 83, at least for today.... This is the problems with stocks still possible for some people to control them.
  • #16,047
  • Oct 19, 2018 3:35pm Oct 19, 2018 3:35pm
It's a mixed bag, but for stocks traded with relatively low volume, much or even most of the share (and options) trading volume over time occurs right around the earnings reports. So, if you ever hear somebody say, "stocks are all about earnings" - that is reflected in the way they are traded.

Also, if there is a big move on the earnings release, most of the time that move will not be reversed soon after the ER. On average, most of the time the big move will follow through with further moves in the same direction.

I don't really trade around the ER's very much. It's kind of like gambling and I try to stay away from that.

I did buy a Mega Millions ticket today, though. If I stop posting next week, you'll know why....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,048
  • Oct 19, 2018 3:40pm Oct 19, 2018 3:40pm
I don't think in this case it is just happening randomly. In their earnings announcement yesterday, Paypal beat estimates and they have a good outlook going forward and I think because of that investors and funds are just bidding it up like would be expected. If their earnings announcement yesterday would have been bad, the stock would have tanked today.

Look at what Home Depot did when they were downgraded earlier this week. Bad news is just bad news and people react accordingly. To make consistent money around earnings, you have to have a strategy that allows that. I think TF has one, but I don't, and that's why I stay away from those stocks with earnings close at hand.
  • #16,049
  • Oct 20, 2018 5:20am Oct 20, 2018 5:20am
The truth of the matter is that I made a mistake because when I opened that trade I didn't check on that, only in the chart. I won't open a trade like this with earning on the same day.. .. let's see if I learn for this lesson.
CLVS end worthless so good on this.
The rest of the opened CALLs yesterday behave well fortunatelly.
  • #16,050
  • Oct 21, 2018 10:37pm Oct 21, 2018 10:37pm
Quoting relaxtrading
{quote} SWK looks like free fall , 120 level didn't stop it and next is 110. Would you please explain the reasons to get LONG on this stock ? thanks
Sorry, Relax, I wasn't ignoring you, I just didn't see this post until a few minutes ago.

The indicators that I use show the stock is ready to bounce up. It has been ready for a week, but with Sears filing bankruptcy last Monday and Home Depot/Lowes getting downgraded later in the week, it pushed the stock lower, so it is REALLY oversold now. Unless the entire market continues to tank, it should pop up this week.
  • #16,051
  • Edited 4:59am Oct 22, 2018 3:37am | Edited 4:59am
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} Sorry, Relax, I wasn't ignoring you, I just didn't see this post until a few minutes ago. The indicators that I use show the stock is ready to bounce up. It has been ready for a week, but with Sears filing bankruptcy last Monday and Home Depot/Lowes getting downgraded later in the week, it pushed the stock lower, so it is REALLY oversold now. Unless the entire market continues to tank, it should pop up this week.
The problem with indicator that show you oversold/overbought conditions is that they can stay like this for weeks/month so in this case I would probably add to the strategy a reversal pattern on a strong supply/demand area. But if you have some fundamental data to support your trade that can be good too.
  • #16,052
  • Oct 22, 2018 4:06am Oct 22, 2018 4:06am
Today I'll be closing few Options because the Weekly chart on many of them are showing doji on important supports areas and I don't want to get trap on a possible attempt to the upper Resistance.
  • #16,053
  • Oct 22, 2018 7:47am Oct 22, 2018 7:47am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I'm doing great Cecil & hope you are the same. AT least you only paid a nickel, right?
no mate 75c, i rectified the mistake after i realised what i wrote
  • #16,054
  • Oct 22, 2018 7:49am Oct 22, 2018 7:49am
Futures are trading higher after the stimulus from China, looking for a rejection to buys puts later today on SPY if it does indeed reject, 2008 all over again
  • #16,055
  • Oct 22, 2018 7:55am Oct 22, 2018 7:55am
If DOW futures break down 25400 then we may see a acceleration into 24800, thats a big BUT at the moment as Futures are at 25,520
  • #16,056
  • Oct 22, 2018 8:44am Oct 22, 2018 8:44am
Quoting Cecil Gee
If DOW futures break down 25400 then we may see a acceleration into 24800, thats a big BUT at the moment as Futures are at 25,520
Futures 25447 went to a high of 25560 ish, waiting to see if I can get SPY 273 puts at a good price, not in any yet
  • #16,057
  • Oct 22, 2018 8:49am Oct 22, 2018 8:49am
Quoting Cecil Gee
If DOW futures break down 25400 then we may see a acceleration into 24800, thats a big BUT at the moment as Futures are at 25,520
they stopped at 24407 and bounced back up to 24468, waiting to see
  • #16,058
  • Oct 22, 2018 8:54am Oct 22, 2018 8:54am
Quoting Cecil Gee
If DOW futures break down 25400 then we may see a acceleration into 24800, thats a big BUT at the moment as Futures are at 25,520
broke below 25400 was expecting it so soon 25374 as I write
  • #16,059
  • Oct 22, 2018 9:00am Oct 22, 2018 9:00am
Still not in any options yet may wait till towards the end of day as I want options to be a little cheaper, premiums are high. Made some on futures though
  • #16,060
  • Oct 22, 2018 9:14am Oct 22, 2018 9:14am
I managed to close all my open position mostly on profit >50% or BE. Now, reassess the situation and start over.
I want to start to look for some of those calendar "fool".. or even Buying CALLS or PUTs like "money" does
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