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north korean panic ensues..

  • #21
  • Oct 9, 2006 12:25am Oct 9, 2006 12:25am
North Korea surprised us with a test?

I mean if they didn't announce it last week (or whenever it was that they announced it)?
  • #22
  • Oct 9, 2006 12:31am Oct 9, 2006 12:31am
A lot of people thought that it was sabre-rattling, as they've been trying to pressure the U.S. into bilateral talks. I wasn't surprised, in fact I've been waiting for this all weekend so I could fire off some trades, and I caught it damn early, too, thank you very much...

This affects nothing but sentiment, but the market is sentiment...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #23
  • Oct 9, 2006 12:39am Oct 9, 2006 12:39am
Hi dukeofdents,

Just curious what's your take on when the UK market opens and better yet the north american market. Do you think it will continue rise or do you think it will settle down?
  • #24
  • Oct 9, 2006 12:39am Oct 9, 2006 12:39am
Quoting dukeofdents
The bottom is falling out of the South Korean stock market right now. EUR/JPY is through the roof. The impact on the yen will be huge. Some in Japan are now questioning their pacifistic foreign policy, and they have enough plutonium from their very own power plants to build a nuke in a matter of months. What if that goes down and we see a regional arms race?
I lived in South Korea for 2 years, I speak and write Korean and I'm chatting with some friends over there. South Koreans typically do not take things like this nearly as seriously as most westerners do but obviously this situation is different. The South Korean stock market falling is no big surprise, Korean stocks have always been skiddish (not just in '97). I was there (in beautiful Cheju Island) in 2003 when they started up their nuclear reactor in Yongbyon. It will be interesting to see if South Korea changes its sunshine policy, probably won't, but it will be a bit more forceful and won't object to very harsh chapter 7 sanctions that the US wants.

Japan historically takes much more of a hard line with North Korea just because of historical tensions between Japan and Koreans (Japanese colonized Korea, raped, pillaged and took tens of thousands of Korean women back to japan as sex slaves, mostly between 1906 and 1940) but what will be really interesting to watch is China's reaction. That will be the breaking point. China is already denouncing this test more firmly than I have ever heard them - that means things are changing. With less Chinese support, the North Koreans will get more desperate and Japan could increase its military.

Trust me guys, this is a big, big deal for anyone who trades JPY
  • #25
  • Oct 9, 2006 12:48am Oct 9, 2006 12:48am
U.S. and S.Korean intelligence pegs this as a 0.55 kiloton test, a small yield device, but enough to raise all holy hell with JPY. A lot of poeple are scoffing at this, but it really is a big, big deal if you trade JPY.

EUR/JPY resistance will start at all-time highs up in the 150.50 area, funny that Japanese and U.S. markets are closed for holidays, this is what will make the coming week (at least if you trade the Asian market). Japanese Machinery Orders announcement comes out late night tomorrow and is an intervening news announcement as it is usually a big yen mover. EU GDP this week, too, I may move into USD/JPY a little more...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #26
  • Oct 9, 2006 1:21am Oct 9, 2006 1:21am
why noy buy CHF today?
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #27
  • Oct 9, 2006 1:24am Oct 9, 2006 1:24am
CHF and EUR are correlates, pick one but not both, if you do, you might as well just trade EUR/CHF and get JPY out of the equation...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #28
  • Oct 9, 2006 1:27am Oct 9, 2006 1:27am
Quoting Mr Trend
I seriously doubt they did. There was no seismic activity that was detected by anyone in the last 48 hours. Trust me, if it went off, we'd know.

It would be totally expected that they would use their media which they control to say they actually set one off in order for them to continue to look powerful and in control in front of the international community and their own people.

Usual communist tactics.
Yeah but who cares if they did or not? What we care about is that they said they did and that traders might believe they did and therefore be affected by the news in their trading......

Not that I care. I'm not intra-day. Fundamentals don't mean squat
"The market will rally from this or lower levels"
  • #29
  • Oct 9, 2006 1:34am Oct 9, 2006 1:34am
I mean USDCHF.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #30
  • Oct 9, 2006 5:12am Oct 9, 2006 5:12am
Quoting Americantek
Japanese colonized Korea, raped, pillaged and took tens of thousands of Korean women back to japan as sex slaves, mostly between 1906 and 1940
This is a bit off-topic but this kind of statement cannot be ignored, especially if it came from a respected member like you.

Japan colonized Korea from 1910 to 1945. This much is true but the other things you listed are simply not true.
Japanese has been a bit too civilized to do that kind of stuff.

To pillage, you need something to pillage...they were as close as they can get to perishing.
For example, in 1907 Korea's national revenue was about $62,300 whereas their expenditure was more than $250,000. The deficit was paid by Japan (the amount was converted from the amount in yen at today exchange rate).
Would you merge your trading account with someone who is constantly losing money? That's what Japan did for them and more.

All the pictures of Korea before colonization look like they were taken a thousand years ago...I see no sign of modernization in them. Not only does it not have a sign of modernization, mountains in Korea in those pictures are all stripped of trees...it shows the goverment was not sophisticated enough to care about or to know and practice the basic of forestry. What was there to pillage?

On the contrary to your belief, Japan modernized Korea during the colonization era and brought it to the level where the population of Koreans has grown from 13.1 million in 1910 to 25.1 million in 1944. That's almost double.
Compare this to what happened to Native Americans, their population doubled after westerners immigrated to the continent? I highly doubt it.

As for sex slaves, if you consider those Korean prostitutes you see in the US now as "Americans took tens of thousands of Korean women back to the US as sex slaves", then and only then it would be true.

Thanks.
  • #31
  • Oct 9, 2006 7:54am Oct 9, 2006 7:54am
Quoting Mr Trend
I seriously doubt they did. There was no seismic activity that was detected by anyone in the last 48 hours. Trust me, if it went off, we'd know.

It would be totally expected that they would use their media which they control to say they actually set one off in order for them to continue to look powerful and in control in front of the international community and their own people.

Usual communist tactics.
George Bush think they did,so they did.
  • #32
  • Oct 9, 2006 8:02am Oct 9, 2006 8:02am
Quoting fx54xHRB
George Bush think they did,so they did.
George Bush also thought that Iran had Weapons of Mass Destruction. Umm were was the WMD? 5 years is no fun waiting for those weapons..

Bush simply wants a license to attack N Korea! And N Korea is being stupid to bluff at this time.
  • #33
  • Oct 9, 2006 8:05am Oct 9, 2006 8:05am
Quoting dukeofdents
I'm developing a new indicator. You graph a Northeast Asia richter scale under a 5-minute EUR/JPY chart. Whenever the richter scale crosses 4, you go long!
  • #34
  • Oct 9, 2006 8:11am Oct 9, 2006 8:11am
Quoting spartan
This is a bit off-topic but this kind of statement cannot be ignored, especially if it came from a respected member like you.

Japan colonized Korea from 1910 to 1945. This much is true but the other things you listed are simply not true.
Japanese has been a bit too civilized to do that kind of stuff.

To pillage, you need something to pillage...they were as close as they can get to perishing.
For example, in 1907 Korea's national revenue was about $62,300 whereas their expenditure was more than $250,000. The deficit was paid by Japan (the amount was converted from the amount in yen at today exchange rate).
Would you merge your trading account with someone who is constantly losing money? That's what Japan did for them and more.

All the pictures of Korea before colonization look like they were taken a thousand years ago...I see no sign of modernization in them. Not only does it not have a sign of modernization, mountains in Korea in those pictures are all stripped of trees...it shows the goverment was not sophisticated enough to care about or to know and practice the basic of forestry. What was there to pillage?

On the contrary to your belief, Japan modernized Korea during the colonization era and brought it to the level where the population of Koreans has grown from 13.1 million in 1910 to 25.1 million in 1944. That's almost double.
Compare this to what happened to Native Americans, their population doubled after westerners immigrated to the continent? I highly doubt it.

As for sex slaves, if you consider those Korean prostitutes you see in the US now as "Americans took tens of thousands of Korean women back to the US as sex slaves", then and only then it would be true.

Thanks.
Talk to some Koreans who lived through it. The Japanese atrocities were well documented, not only in Korea but all throughout asia. They did take sex slaves, a commonly used Korean swear word references women who were taken by Japanese and later returned dishonored (Hwang-nyo). Yes, Korea was less modern than Japan (they were known as the hermit kingdom) but modernizing a country doesn't give one the right to destroy its culture. Koreans were forced to learn and speak only Japanese during this time, in school, on official documents, and thus many older Koreans are fluent at Japanese yet hate the language.

Koreans freaked out a few years ago because a nationally used Japanese text book claimed things along the lines of what you are saying, the colonization was good for korea, etc. In reality, what happened to korea was horrible - I know, I've been there, I talked to plenty of elder Koreans who could literally show me their scars from being beaten for not speaking Japanese.

What Japan did for them? Your view is so ignorant - Japan ransacked the place, everything from looting amethyst mines to destroying nearly every historical building in the country (try finding a building in Korea that was built before the Japanese got there, its tough), I don't know where you are coming off with this idea that the Japanese some how did Korea a favor but you are way off base. As for modernizing Korea, the US did a lot more towards that end during and after the Korean war than the Japanese ever did. Koreas real modernization/industrialization happened during the 70's though, thats another story.

As far as the dates you are citing, I don't have time to drag into a detailed history lesson with precise dates. This is a trading forum and I was simply outlining the fact that the Japanese and Korea will almost always be on different sides of the same political issues. Do you know what Dok-do is? Probably not! There isn't much point in debating about something that you obviously have such a limited knowledge and perspective on. Get back to trading
  • #35
  • Oct 9, 2006 10:25am Oct 9, 2006 10:25am
Quoting BurgerKing
George Bush also thought that Iran had Weapons of Mass Destruction. Umm were was the WMD? 5 years is no fun waiting for those weapons..

Bush simply wants a license to attack N Korea! And N Korea is being stupid to bluff at this time.
hmm Bush will never attack N korea.
  • #36
  • Oct 9, 2006 10:26am Oct 9, 2006 10:26am
Quoting fx54xHRB
hmm Bush will never attack N korea.
Of course Bush won't. That is why he has armed forces, however.
  • #37
  • Oct 9, 2006 11:39am Oct 9, 2006 11:39am
Please, regardless of what position you have on Bush, N. Korea, Iran, etc... should not have Nuclear Weapons, you know it and I know it. For heavens sake even China is condeming this. So please refrain from the Bush Bashing wagon already on this subject, just wait for the Great Old Media to do it. YOu know they will.
  • #38
  • Oct 9, 2006 5:05pm Oct 9, 2006 5:05pm
I think it is an effective strategy being played out by the US . Let China and Japan and S. Korea work on N. Korea.

Lou
  • #39
  • Oct 9, 2006 5:11pm Oct 9, 2006 5:11pm
Quoting BurgerKing
George Bush also thought that Iran had Weapons of Mass Destruction. Umm were was the WMD? 5 years is no fun waiting for those weapons..

Bush simply wants a license to attack N Korea! And N Korea is being stupid to bluff at this time.


Did you see the article last summer about the network of WWII underground bunkers just then discovered outside of a small town in France. How about 50 years !

Lou
  • #40
  • Oct 9, 2006 5:23pm Oct 9, 2006 5:23pm
on another thread I was actually talking about shorting this pair, at the moment this pair has fallen to 149 i think there might be further weakness... based on resistance at previous high at 150.45 we could see a nice retreacement back down but this in my opinion for me is a tricky and volitile pair to trade, use price action itself to determine stop placement like most recent swing high or low based on larger time frames.

also from a technical perspective we have a 1 hour up TL break and 123 top formed on price.
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