Swing Trading on Gold and FX

update 0556EST:
follow up:
the strategy keeps unchanged, as Euro sentiment is not very good right now.



Source: FT.com

10/9/2018 Recap:
took profit with one set following the drop.
good news then lifted Euro and Sterling in the U.S. session.
did not trade the turnaround.

10/10/2018 session3:

Euro Pre-trading checklist:
1) News, supporting (rumors on Irish boarder settlement next Monday, 2.4% budget unchanged)
2) Economic data, depressing (0430EST UK GDP, 0830EST US PPI)
3) Scoreboard, neutral
4) CandleBar, supporting
5) RedBox and RedCloud, depressing (V turnaround)
6) SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min), N/A
7) Fibonacci and ABCD, supporting (61.8%, short term ABCD)
8) .DXY highlight, N/A (crucial point 95.6)
9) Reuters view, supporting

Decision point(s): 1), 5), 7)
Conclusion: Short
Adaptive Strategy: Short


Source: Reuters

Follow up: (if any, for next session)
Decision point(s):
Conclusion:
Updated Strategy:

10/10/2018 session3 recap:
traded for 1 set. took profit for part of the position.

same pattern as the previous day, pulled up in the later session.
my last portion was stopped out, erased 2/3 of the profit.

Thu 10/11/2018 session3:

Euro Pre-trading checklist:
1) News, mixed (IT bond selloff, Brexit progress, Fed hike comments)
2) Economic data, neutral (0500EST BOE Carney speaks, 0830EST US CPI)
3) Scoreboard, neutral
4) CandleBar, supporting
5) RedBox and RedCloud, supporting
6) SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min), supporting
7) Fibonacci and ABCD, depressing (38.2%)
8) .DXY highlight, depressing (95.18 pivot point)
9) Reuters view, supporting

Decision point(s): 4), 5), 6), 7), 8)
Conclusion: Long on 4), 5), 6), Short on 7), 8)
Adaptive Strategy: long short scalping


Follow up: (if any, for next session)
Decision point(s):
Conclusion:
Updated Strategy:

stock market and gold.
i need to learn and have this sort of knowledge next time.

Thu 10/11/2018 session3 recap:
scalping did not work well.
stopped out for the first set of trades.
the second set offset the loss and turned it into a small profit.

This log is wonderful. Great work and thank you for sharing your knowledge.
One question please.have you made any pdf or a structured tutorial of this method?

Fri 10/12/2018 session3:

Euro Pre-trading checklist:
1) News, supporting, (temporary custom union plan, Hammond on UK budget)
2) Economic data, N/A
3) Scoreboard, supporting
4) CandleBar, neutral
5) RedBox and RedCloud, supporting
6) SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min), supporting
7) Fibonacci and ABCD, mixed (38.2% and 50%)
8) .DXY highlight, supporting
9) Reuters view, supporting

Decision point(s): 1), 5), 6)
Conclusion: Long
Adaptive Strategy: Long accumulation

Fri 10/12/2018 session3 recap:
the long accumulation did not end up well, obviously, from the chart.
a normal losing day, lazy Friday, which need to raise my full attention.

i made the wrong projection.
however, it still has 50/50 chance to win in the wrong direction.

the problems came from the self-management.
i stopped loss for 4 consecutive sets.

the first 2 sets of cut loss were fine, part of business.

but i have no excuse for the third set of stop - i felt lazy, left my desk, and gave that open position into the hands of lottery.

when i came back, market sentiment was favoring the short.
i opened the last set and stopped with few pips loss - no losing open position overnight, according to my rules.

hard-work made the wrong projection into profit.
a slack attitude turned a good hand into loss.
focus and restraint!

hi abbym,

Thank you.

i have not made any pdf or structures tutorial.
i do have some rules / procedures for trading, details were described in the first post of this log.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=763938

they are just normal things, nothing special!
for me, the key is to stick on the rules, and only to change/revise the rules when they are not working.

10/30/2018 session3:

Euro Pre-trading checklist:
1) News, depressing, (fresh low of yuan, Merkel to stand down, no Brexit deal)
2) Economic data, N/A
3) Scoreboard, neutral
4) CandleBar, neutral
5) RedBox and RedCloud, neutral
6) SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min), depressing
7) Fibonacci and ABCD, N/A
8) .DXY highlight, N/A
9) Reuters view, depressing

Decision point(s): 1), 6), 9)
Conclusion: Decumulation
Adaptive Strategy: Short the rebound

Tue 10/30/2018 session3 recap:
short stopped in the rebound, bad luck.

10/31/2018 session3:

Euro Pre-trading checklist:
1) News, neutral, (BOJ press conference, bad China PMI data)
2) Economic data, neutral (0600EST EURO unemployment and CPI, 0830EST US ADP non-farm employment)
3) Scoreboard, depressing
4) CandleBar, neutral
5) RedBox and RedCloud, depressing
6) SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min), depressing
7) Fibonacci and ABCD, N/A
8) .DXY highlight, N/A
9) Reuters view, depressing

Decision point(s): 1), 5), 6)
Conclusion: Decumulation
Adaptive Strategy: Short the rebound

Wed 10/31/2018 session3 recap:
no trades.
missed out the chance to short the high as the market was too choppy and i lost confidence.

i found the causes that slowed running of my files very bad in the system.
the problem kept happening for more than a month.

the whole afternoon i was thinking how to repair related files.

so i was late on updating trade plan today.

But i did made a trade set of long today, although i missed most part of the trends.

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11/1/2018 session3:

Euro Pre-trading checklist:
1) News, supporting (Brexit deal hopes)
2) Economic data, neutral (0800EST GBP MPC Bank Rate, 1000EST US manufacturer PMI)
3) Scoreboard, supporting
4) CandleBar *removed from checking list
5) RedBox and RedCloud, depressing
6) SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min), supporting
7) Fibonacci and ABCD, N/A
8) .DXY highlight, N/A
9) Reuters view, supporting

Decision point(s): 1), 6)
Conclusion: Accumulation
Adaptive Strategy: Long at market price
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Thu 11/1/2018 session3 recap:
the long trade set had made profit, locked 4 lots and kept 1 lot for long run as hope of Brexit deal was a big good news.



Source: Refinitive

11/2/2018 session3:

Euro Pre-trading checklist:
1) News, supporting (US-CN trade tension eases, no news on Brexit)
2) Economic data, neutral (0830EST NFP and unemployment data)
3) Scoreboard, supporting
4) CandleBar *removed from checklist
5) RedBox and RedCloud, supporting
6) SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min), supporting
7) Fibonacci and ABCD, N/A (50% support, 62% resistance)
8) .DXY highlight, supporting
9) Reuters view, depressing

Decision point(s): 1), 3), 6), 7)
Conclusion: Accumulation
Adaptive Strategy: Long after pullback

Reuters holds an opposite opinion.

the damaged file was recovered and the system slowdown problem was solved.
and i took the chance to update the layout of the charts to make it easier to read.

Fri 11/02/2018 session3 recap:
the long set ended up well before the 0830EST NFP data.
i closed all positions as i did not intend to trade another session.