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Finally eurusd transient/recurrent zone mystery cracked

  • #141
  • Oct 11, 2018 10:20am Oct 11, 2018 10:20am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} In regards to this and your other posts ... Dissimilarities are basically generated when a breakout of a former range occurs. I think one could argue that those significant moves can be only created by MMs. But why should it mean that price has to return to the dissimilarity? Well, if the MMs hedge their trades in other commodity markets, they need to manipulate the market afterwards to go back in order to unhedge ... But the more interesting question is: Is that really the case, i.e. does price return more often to dissimilarity zones than...
Thanks for your post-D. it's loaded. I never really understood most of the theory EURUSDD dropped. I just found what worked for me and refined it. In my opinion, there is not just one way to spot dissimilarity. some methods are better than others and until you get the full picture we would never really know. I think its all about perspective and frame of reference. What you call dissimilarity may not be what I call dissimilarity. This TZ stuff is complex.

What we know about TZ RZ similarity is limited as long as EURUSDD does not release the full research he did. So I accept that our knowledge is limited and probably we will never get the full details.

I dont know what tests EURUSDD did or didnt do. I am still combing the similarity thread trying to understand more and its getting clearer yet still limited in my understanding and knowledge. All I can say is I found what works for me so far. I dont really know about the authenticity or verification of EURUSDDS theorems.
  • #142
  • Oct 11, 2018 10:21am Oct 11, 2018 10:21am
In this video, we do a review of CADJPY and AUDJPY trades and setups that Hit equilibrium levels yesterday for a total of about 500 pips. We also show updated new equilibrium levels on the spreadsheet and explaining the trade plan for each of those pairs. keeping it simple stupid

We did the regular daily market analysis based on TZ equilibrium levels and strategy. We look at what's been moving the markets news wise and we also do some technical analysis to get a holistic picture of past and present price action.
Access Spreadsheet 247 Via The Following Link http:///shorttermtzrzequilibriumdata

https://youtu.be/V6JU4jBZhjE
  • #143
  • Oct 11, 2018 10:31am Oct 11, 2018 10:31am
Quoting ephisi
What you call dissimilarity may not be what I call dissimilarity. This TZ stuff is complex.
TZs are basically breakouts ...

Quoting ephisi
I dont know what tests EURUSDD did or didnt do.
That's not the point. He said that dissimilarity zones would have a magnetic effect on price. But just because my pencil drops down to my floor doesn't mean that
my floor is magnetic. If you wait long enough, price will come back to almost every imaginable price point (within the entire price range without the absolute high and low).
  • #144
  • Oct 11, 2018 10:40am Oct 11, 2018 10:40am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} TZs are basically breakouts ... {quote} That's not the point. He said that dissimilarity zones would have a magnetic effect on price. But just because my pencil drops down to my floor doesn't mean that my floor is magnetic. If you wait long enough, price will come back to almost every imaginable price point (within the entire price range without the absolute high and low).

You have a very good point there and I agree with you. EURUSDD once said that as H tends to infinity all prices will eventually become recurrent. So as he said i believe TZ is just a new way to see the market. So lets say all prices are recurrent. TZ has just given me a way to trade this concept in a sane way.

So since you know that all prices are recurrent, can you figure out a way to trade based on tis discovery? For me that's what TZ does

So many of EURUSDD concepts did not click. Like price being H recurrent after a former TZ is broken. Just take whats valid and dump the rest.
  • #145
  • Oct 11, 2018 10:43am Oct 11, 2018 10:43am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} TZs are basically breakouts ... {quote} That's not the point. He said that dissimilarity zones would have a magnetic effect on price. But just because my pencil drops down to my floor doesn't mean that my floor is magnetic. If you wait long enough, price will come back to almost every imaginable price point (within the entire price range without the absolute high and low).


That right there is extremely powerful. I have always known about this
  • #146
  • Oct 11, 2018 10:44am Oct 11, 2018 10:44am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} TZs are basically breakouts ... {quote} That's not the point. He said that dissimilarity zones would have a magnetic effect on price. But just because my pencil drops down to my floor doesn't mean that my floor is magnetic. If you wait long enough, price will come back to almost every imaginable price point (within the entire price range without the absolute high and low).
I think you are right.

But if price will always return, then every imaginable point like "equilibrum level" will works, so doesnt matter if they exist or not, if they are really equilibrum lvl or not. Ephisi choose one, the most appropriate he thinks to be.

So every price is a magnet.

The dificculty and you know it well, is that you must find an appropriate point with a minimum DD (for your account) and and a point that must be reached as quickly as possible (for your nerve ).

Few traders take into account a limited trading time. for example the market will have to reach such price in 8 hours. and if the eight hours are passed I closed. I think Fx-Jay doing this.
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #147
  • Oct 11, 2018 10:45am Oct 11, 2018 10:45am
so i went on mql5 signals to convince myself. There are so many people doing 100% winrate. i dont know if they know it or not that all priceses are reccurent in the future. But what i have seen time and time again is that when they have bad trades they wait it out and price eventually comes back

Money management is key. Only those who get their worst case calculations right can do that.
  • #148
  • Oct 11, 2018 10:47am Oct 11, 2018 10:47am
Quoting limprobable
{quote} I think you are right. But if price will always return, then every imaginable point like "equilibrum level" will works, so doesnt matter if they exist or not, if they are really equilibrum lvl or not. Ephisi choose one, the most appropriate he thinks to be. So every point and every price is a magnet. The dificculty and you know it well, is that you must find an appropriate point with a minimum DD (for your account) and a that will be reach the more quickly (for your nerve ).
Exactly. You hit the nail on the head.
A pity that EU never talked about it.
  • #149
  • Oct 11, 2018 10:48am Oct 11, 2018 10:48am
Quoting limprobable
{quote} I think you are right. But if price will always return, then every imaginable point like "equilibrum level" will works, so doesnt matter if they exist or not, if they are really equilibrum lvl or not. Ephisi choose one, the most appropriate he thinks to be. So every point and every price is a magnet. The dificculty and you know it well, is that you must find an appropriate point with a minimum DD (for your account) and and a point that must be reached as quickly as possible (for your nerve ).

You got that right. The difficulty as you said is that you must find an appropriate point. But this is one of the hardest things to do i hope you erealize this. SO thee needs to be a s=tested strategy to pick out these points
  • #150
  • Oct 11, 2018 10:51am Oct 11, 2018 10:51am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} TZs are basically breakouts ... {quote} That's not the point. He said that dissimilarity zones would have a magnetic effect on price. But just because my pencil drops down to my floor doesn't mean that my floor is magnetic. If you wait long enough, price will come back to almost every imaginable price point (within the entire price range without the absolute high and low).

Hahahaha! Actually this is great logic but i have to disagree with the logic in passing. The floor actually has a magnetic pull based on gravity.
  • #151
  • Oct 11, 2018 10:53am Oct 11, 2018 10:53am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Exactly. You hit the nail on the head. A pity that EU never talked about it.
EURUSDD did talk about it in one line. Hope it was not deleted.
  • #152
  • Oct 11, 2018 10:56am Oct 11, 2018 10:56am
I am really glad we are having this very constructive discuss. I hope some people are going to have light bulb moments based on this
  • #153
  • Oct 11, 2018 10:56am Oct 11, 2018 10:56am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} Hahahaha! Actually this is great logic but i have to disagree with the logic in passing. The floor actually has a magnetic pull based on gravity.
Here was my analogy:
price = pencil (made of steel)
dissimilarity = magnet
floor = not magnetic
price recurrence = gravity

Just because the pencil drops to the floor means that it has to drop since gravity is the nature of our universe. It could have also dropped towards a magnet, but it can also drop due to gravity: Just because price reaches dissimilar prices doesn't mean that it was the effect of the dissimilarity itself. It just would have happened since it had to due to the law of recurrence.
  • #154
  • Oct 11, 2018 10:57am Oct 11, 2018 10:57am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} EURUSDD did talk about it in one line. Hope it was not deleted.
I wonder if you'd link to that line or describe what he said?!

Quoting ephisi
I hope some people are going to have light bulb moments based on this
Guys, once you had your light bulb moment and you've found way how to trade it with the right money management, please tell me That's the hardest part. The theoretical framework of TZs seems to be clear and obvious.
  • #155
  • Oct 11, 2018 11:06am Oct 11, 2018 11:06am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Here was my analogy: price = pencil (made of steel) dissimilarity = magnet floor = not magnetic price recurrence = gravity Just because the pencil drops to the floor means that it has to drop since gravity is the nature of our universe. It could have also dropped towards a magnet, but it can also drop due to gravity: Just because price reaches dissimilar prices doesn't mean that it was the effect of the dissimilarity itself. It just would have happened since it had to due to the law of recurrence.

I understood you clearly.
  • #156
  • Oct 11, 2018 11:09am Oct 11, 2018 11:09am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} I wonder if you'd link to that line or describe what he said?! {quote} Guys, once you had your light bulb moment and you've found way how to trade it with the right money management, please tell me That's the hardest part. The theoretical framework of TZs seems to be clear and obvious.
I have tried searching but forexfactorys search is not as efficient. He basically was saying that as h or t tends to infinity all prices tend to be recurrent
  • #157
  • Oct 11, 2018 11:14am Oct 11, 2018 11:14am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} I wonder if you'd link to that line or describe what he said?! {quote} Guys, once you had your light bulb moment and you've found way how to trade it with the right money management, please tell me That's the hardest part. The theoretical framework of TZs seems to be clear and obvious.
which is not very clear yet and we have no statistics on it is the following: how many times will a tick be recurrent? if a price has already been hit once or several times (in one second, one minute, one hour ...) does it still have the same probability of being reached? (in a second, a minute, an hour, a week?)

the second question is related to the mid-tz, which for me are the most important price areas: in terms of recurrence (equilibrum level or call it what you want) and trend term.

the third point is about time. Few traders take into account a limited trading time. for example the market will have to reach such price in 8 hours. and if the eight hours are passed I closed. I think Fx-Jay doing this.

last point, the ideal entry appears to be the least recurrent price possible to avoid the stop loss be hit. it would be necessary to determine this price or this zone of price as well as the most recurrent prices.

now when I say all this I say nothing really useful to trade
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #158
  • Oct 11, 2018 11:14am Oct 11, 2018 11:14am
[quote=limprobable;11573434]{quote} I think you are right. But if price will always return, then every imaginable point like "equilibrum level" will works, so doesnt matter if they exist or not, if they are really equilibrum lvl or not. Ephisi choose one, the most appropriate he thinks to be. So every price is a magnet. The dificculty and you know it well, is that you must find an appropriate point with a minimum DD (for your account) and and a point that must be reached as quickly as possible (for your nerve </span>


I tried everything i know in the books before deciding to eliminate stops (fixed or mental) completely. Using time as stop loss was very good but then theres are just some crazy runaway trades that will really mess you up
  • #159
  • Edited 12:29pm Oct 11, 2018 11:25am | Edited 12:29pm
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Try that I've created a while ago ... Will delete the link soon.

Got it
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #160
  • Oct 11, 2018 11:36am Oct 11, 2018 11:36am
Quoting limprobable
and we have no statistics on it is the following
Well, I've calculate some for some of your points.

Quoting limprobable
how many times will a tick be recurrent? if a price has already been hit once or several times (in one second, one minute, one hour ...) does it still have the same probability of being reached? (in a second, a minute, an hour, a week?)
I know that you and others talked about this a lot. However, if you look at EU's proposition 1 then you can see that he also only looks at completed candlesticks. We base our calculations on matured candlesticks and thus, the probabilities are valid for candlesticks. I.e. whenever I see that 1 tick has reached a level, I would consider the condition as being fulfilled. However, once I've also calculated some statistics on how often candlesticks contain the same price in a row. I've called it l-(h)-recurrence ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting limprobable
the second question is related to the mid-tz, which for me are the most important price areas: in terms of recurrence (equilibrum level or call it what you want) and trend term.[/attach]

I never looked at this. However, mid-TZs can just occur in strong momentum environments. And Kiads has already visually seen that they often occur in the middle-part of a trend and thus it may take a while to return to these points.

the third point is about time. Few traders take into account a limited trading time. for example the market will have to reach...
Yes, that was the initial idea of TZs: Find prices which are revisited within h bars with a probability of 97 %. However, I don't see how Fx-Jay (for instance) can handle the < 3 % cases where prices don't return back. I mean, the price can return back immediately. This would suggest to go for small pips (and that's what Eurusdd said - "sure 1 pip"). However, depending on your h and the TF you trade, price can deviate many pips from your entry (for instance ... let's say 50 pips). However, now your average win expectation is 0.97 x 1 pip - 0.03 x 50 pips = -0.53 pips. How can you deal with it. Even if I would hedge I wouldn't know where/how to enter/unhedge.

Quoting limprobable
last point, the ideal entry appears to be the least recurrent price possible to avoid the stop loss be hit. it would be necessary to determine this price or this zone of price as well as the most recurrent prices.
I think I don't get this point ... How would you determine the least recurrent price possible?!

Quoting limprobable
now when I say all this I say nothing really useful to trade
Me neither
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