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  • #7,521
  • Oct 9, 2018 11:08am Oct 9, 2018 11:08am
PASR

Quoting Rub
{quote} Yes strat, that's a post that has a great deal of value. I thought it better to give a post# rather than link directly so people would put the effort in to look, but seeing you've quoted it I wonder if anyone will get anything from it. {quote} In addition to what Suran says, take your time and make sure you understand. I've been making my way though it for about 8 or so months and haven't even hit halfway because I try to make sure I actually understand and apply the material before I move on. It is not a race.
I wonder if anyone will get anything from it.

Thanks Ben. I posted the summary because I didn't think people would take the time/trouble to read Dan's complete post.

Let's ask the question:

Did anyone get anything from Dan's post?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,522
  • Oct 9, 2018 11:41am Oct 9, 2018 11:41am
USDJPY

Quoting Malu
USD JPY Good morning, I was looking at USD JPY yesterday. Here are my thoughts on that pair: Big Boss: is in an uptrend. Price found support in Feb, March and April. Since April buyers are back in the market and price moved up - slowly but steady. Boss: Boss is also in an uptrend - Price is above the Strat shadow. Last week was indecision, so at the moment we see some profit taking at these levels. Price could show a slight correction but trend is still intact. Worker: As I don't want to do any counter trends, I will wait till PASR shows a good...
You have received very good feedback from Rub and darko - Thank you - TRADERS HELPING TRADERS.

Just to reinforce those comments:

Big Boss

Look closer at what the Strat Shadow is telling you. Notice the Swings getting shorter indicating less volatility and interest.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Boss

Watch for CLOSE to determine status of up swing.

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Worker

SEE the confluence of support and Strat Shadow.

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As I don't want to do any counter trends, I will wait till PASR shows a good entry for entering long with a first small position.

Very good.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,523
  • Oct 9, 2018 12:07pm Oct 9, 2018 12:07pm
EURUSD

Quoting menek
My view on EU, Big boss trend is generally down. september candle close as shooting star. I am expecting a sell continuation. on Boss selling is building up, the weekly candle ended bearish. on the worker, there is a bearish engulf bar, it is not convincing though, there is another bearish engulf bar coming on the 4hr timeframe. let's see how that end {image} {image} {image} {image}
You have got such excellent comments from Svolacius that I only need to add that buyers are currently defending BRN 1.15 PRICE.

Pay particular attention to his comments on your Worker chart.

WHY do you have a SELL STOP order at SUPPORT on the Worker?????

Where is your PASR set up for a sell? Do you ""really"" UNDERSTAND PASR?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,524
  • Oct 9, 2018 12:18pm Oct 9, 2018 12:18pm
GBPJPY M5

Quoting bistolis
GBPJPY M5 The london session started with a small move that would have made me jump in a year ago, and I would have bought somewhere inside that rectangle. {image} Rule No1 though and you can find why we need to wait, by switching on a couple of higher timeframes {image} Not even a paper trade on this chart for me . No time this week to pay attention. Only some retrospective analysis have fun
Only some retrospective analysis

This is called studying PASR on charts

Rule No1 though and you can find why we need to wait. Not even a paper trade on this chart for me

Very good DISCIPLINE!

I'll get this in before Yomi beats me to it:

There is NO TREND and we don't trade Basic PASR on M5

Had I seen this when I opened my chart, I would quickly CLOSE and find another pair - NO TREND - NO TRADE!

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,525
  • Oct 9, 2018 12:22pm Oct 9, 2018 12:22pm
EURUSD

Quoting Svolacius
D {quote} Hi menek, I would like to express my view on your charts and analysis. My view on EU, Big boss trend is generally down. My view is that EUR/USD is going sideways since summer. Long indecision for 2 months (summer time) then we got a hammer when sellers pushed the price down to 1.13. That means long positions were opened that brought the price back to 1.16. september candle close as shooting star. I am expecting a sell continuation. September's Big Boss candle closed as a doji - it's clear as day on your chart. No body, just tail and wicks,...
I am just a PASR student

But a very good student. This would have got 10/10 had you identified BRN 1.15

Great feedback, Augustas - thank you for helping your fellow trader - TRADERS HELPING TRADERS
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,526
  • Oct 9, 2018 1:19pm Oct 9, 2018 1:19pm
Quoting strat
GBPJPY M5 {quote} Only some retrospective analysis This is called studying PASR on charts Rule No1 though and you can find why we need to wait. Not even a paper trade on this chart for me Very good DISCIPLINE! I'll get this in before Yomi beats me to it: There is NO TREND and we don't trade Basic PASR on M5 Had I seen this when I opened my chart, I would quickly CLOSE and find another pair - NO TREND - NO TRADE! {image}
thanks strat
I highlighted actually a candle that pushes lower that looks like an entry on hindsight since the move down would happen in the future (so at that point its just greedy scalping, since the shadow is not yet "fat" enough to indicate a possible trend. please correct me if I am terribly wrong on this one). and at the moment I took the screenshot the GBP pairs all looked juicy , if someone had time to watch for a continuation lower.

and you highlighted the high/low channel that I am always paying attention for ( asia session range ) and once something starts rolling it would create the breakout out of that range.
  • #7,527
  • Oct 9, 2018 2:40pm Oct 9, 2018 2:40pm
Quoting strat
GBPCAD {quote} Very good, Augustas. You are progressing well on THE PATH as you SEE buyers and sellers instead of candles. Thank you also to Eurotrader and Terry - TRADERS HELPING TRADERS I was particularly interested in comments on the gap and the PRICE ACTION following that. This is the Boss chart with the gap {image} As you progress on THE PATH and build your hours of studying PASR on thousands of charts (experience), you will be able to quickly recognise what happened from the Boss chart. Until then, toggle down to the Worker to see, in detail,...
This post is priceless, Strat! Thanks a lot for the explanation!
IF IT DOESN'T FEEL RIGHT - IT'S NOT RIGHT!
  • #7,528
  • Oct 9, 2018 2:53pm Oct 9, 2018 2:53pm
Quoting strat
PASR {quote} I wonder if anyone will get anything from it. Thanks Ben. I posted the summary because I didn't think people would take the time/trouble to read Dan's complete post. Let's ask the question: Did anyone get anything from Dan's post?
I did That kind of post are the ones that keep me going when I'm doubtful about trading (not too often).
So thanks for bringing it out so I could read it again.
I also love Dan's analogy of shop-environments (respect financial markets) he made in another forum (the link is in the mentioned post of the old thread)

I have a particularly simplistic view on this which many may not agree with but there you go:

I run a shop re-selling all manor of amazing widgets and gizmos. I do not manufacture, I’m merely a middleman trying to identify and profit from the demand of my customers.

I try to buy my widgets and gizmos at a price which I think I can then sell on to my customers at a profit. Sometimes, I will buy an item whose value to my customer suddenly shoots through the ceiling. Sometimes my products show a steady and continues growth in demand. Sometimes there is no immediate demand for a product I have just bought, but over the coming minutes, hours, days, weeks, there is a steady increase in customers coming through my door so I will buy more of these products until I have saturated the market and demand dries up.

Sometimes I buy a widget and nobody wants it, and in order to free up my capital to reinvest in products for which there is demand in the marketplace (or in which I judge there will be a requirement), I have to sell at break even or at a loss.

My shop has many products in it. Some are in demand, some are not, and I balance my book accordingly.

I particularly admire Leon, Pipmutt, Daytrading and some of the traders on here who seem to apply a far deeper understanding and intelligence to the market, however for me, the FX market is just another shop on the high street and is no different to selling bread or sex toys.

Supply, demand, profit and loss. The rest, to me, is needless froth (yes, I am aware the term needless will be contested by many, including the aforementioned members).

One poor selling product does not (or should not) spell the end for my business, one great product does not mean I’ll start arriving at work by helicopter.

I will subscribe to one major difference with the general business model however that, as a retail trader (which most on these forums are), I often find myself akin to being sat in a dinghy in the middle of the Atlantic on a cloudy day with no sun or landmark to set sail for – welcome to world of FX, where the only constant is change; if you run a McDonalds or a typical retail chain, there are established blueprints for success (or expected success based upon establsihed best practice) whereas in trading, everything changes (please see the thread on negative expectancy in which far smarter people than me have debated around this).

There is no holy grail in anything in life, whether you run a corner shop or an billion dollar hedge fund, but the problem with the retail currency market is it is incredibly easy to enter and is deliberately marketed as an easy way to make a lot of money. That combination generally attracts the kind of personality which isn’t going to set the world on fire in any field, at least not legally.

And as for the whole 95% fail rate which is used to scare every newbie (of which I am one) away, 95% of people in life fail, just look around. Those who want to succeed will find a way, however long it takes and however hard the road.

I think it was one of Thomas Edison’s quotes which sums it up best: “Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls, and looks like work.” Or perhaps Benjimen Franklin’s summed it up better: “If your head is wax, don't walk in the sun.”
IF IT DOESN'T FEEL RIGHT - IT'S NOT RIGHT!
  • #7,529
  • Oct 9, 2018 5:21pm Oct 9, 2018 5:21pm
Quoting strat
USDJPY {quote} Boss Watch for CLOSE to determine status of up swing.
Hi, Strat!

I first was under the impression that, according to your teachings, we need a close in order to validate a swing. Then after that quarrel with BTS, I saw on the path that you talked about the candle having to take out the low or high. Now you mention the close. So I am confused again.

So if the Boss candle goes back up and it finishes like (let's not call it pin bar, cause you hate that) a hanging man, a doji, a spinning top, a dragon fly doji, a long legged doji, would that swing be valid or not? I hope that your answer will clear my confusion this time.

Thanks in advance!
  • #7,530
  • Oct 9, 2018 6:24pm Oct 9, 2018 6:24pm
Quoting catalin_eros
{quote} Hi, Strat! I first was under the impression that, according to your teachings, we need a close in order to validate a swing. Then after that quarrel with BTS, I saw on the path that you talked about the candle having to take out the low or high. Now you mention the close. So I am confused again. So if the Boss candle goes back up and it finishes like (let's not call it pin bar, cause you hate that) a hanging man, a doji, a spinning top, a dragon fly doji, a long legged doji, would that swing be valid or not? I hope that your answer will...
Is in the path provided in the first post of the page.

My understanding is, yes. But we still need to wait for candle close because the price could change anytime and end up going higher than previous candle (lets say its swing high), hence it won't be a swing high if that is happened.
  • #7,531
  • Oct 9, 2018 6:52pm Oct 9, 2018 6:52pm
Confirmed Swings

Quoting catalin_eros
{quote} Hi, Strat! I first was under the impression that, according to your teachings, we need a close in order to validate a swing. Then after that quarrel with BTS, I saw on the path that you talked about the candle having to take out the low or high. Now you mention the close. So I am confused again. So if the Boss candle goes back up and it finishes like (let's not call it pin bar, cause you hate that) a hanging man, a doji, a spinning top, a dragon fly doji, a long legged doji, would that swing be valid or not? I hope that your answer will...
The most important PRICE in PASR is the CLOSE

huatzhi has already provided you with the link to my Confirmed Swing document plus there are more in the "old" thread. Thank you huatzhi. - TRADERS HELPING TRADERS

I saw on the path that you talked about the candle having to take out the low or high

I am sure this was in some other context as I have never changed the qualification of my Swings. Please post this so that I can understand the context.

Once again, there has to be a CLOSE above the HIGH of the Lowest Low candle to confirm a Swing Low and there has to be a CLOSE below the LOW of the Highest High candle to confirm a Swing High.

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,532
  • Oct 9, 2018 10:16pm Oct 9, 2018 10:16pm
Hi all ,

I will second what Eurotrader (for the most part) says about AstonDan's post,

Quoting Eurotrader17
.. And as for the whole 95% fail rate which is used to scare every newbie (of which I am one) away, 95% of people in life fail, just look around. Those who want to succeed will find a way, however long it takes and however hard the road...
This was also my view about the market's 95% failure rate. In my country many thousand people start their higher studies in Mathematics stream, And within that only a handful of people went on to become Engineers or Scientists. And that is much less than 5% of the total...So trading seams better... huh

The problem is that new people got used to believe this is easy money. its easy to click a button and see the trade goes on to profit. Almost all of them come to this with the idea of making and living off trading with in couple of weeks of training. When they fail to predict the PRICE after couple of weeks training, they jump in to new strategy thinking this method sucks, I don't understand this damn thing.blah blah blah.. They do the same to their new method also. So the journey goes on.

Some of the people comes in to these forums keeps complaining that The PATH has not clearly laid out. etc.. They don't like to read others posts because they believe they can get nothing out of the others post (I mean new guys posts). But my view is that we can learn a lot from others posts as well. Its just helps and expedite our learning curve.

Most do not understand this is almost similar to becoming a Engineer or Heart Surgeon..or Accountant.You need to give this a little dedication..Time and practice.

If we start with a blank piece of paper and listen to what Strat says...and keep on practicing it. then I believe this can be done. If we have strong desire to achieve this then We might..



Quoting strat
PASR {quote} ........ My only disappointment is that he, like all those who became "consistently profitable", left the thread and public trading forums and had no desire to help others.

What I can say about this is this. The path or Strats PASR university (as we call it now) is Just the beginning of our journey. After 3 years of apprenticeship with Strat means only getting a Degree (if we graduate..) . That doesn't mean we managed suck out all the knowledge we can get from Strats (30 yrs+ experience ) brain. After a General Degree there comes Masters or Phd...so the learning curve goes on. As long as markets are there the learning never stops. So never expect me to stop posting here (unless something bad happens.you never know about the life .do you?). If I stop posting here it means I stopped trading altogether.

However, my participation to the forum is pretty low these days due to my other issues. And I will participate more in future after things got better. But I am still in THE PATH.

Happy Learning and Trading guys

Suranga
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #7,533
  • Oct 10, 2018 1:07am Oct 10, 2018 1:07am
Quoting huatzhi
{quote} Is in the path provided in the first post of the page. My understanding is, yes. But we still need to wait for candle close because the price could change anytime and end up going higher than previous candle (lets say its swing high), hence it won't be a swing high if that is happened.
Hi, Huatzhi!

Thanks for your comment!

Yes, that is correct, the candle can go higher than the previous one, spot on! I actually wanted to state this when I was describing my candles, especially the long legged doji and the dragon fly doji, I wanted to say that it should not exceed the previous candle's high, but then I left it like that. It is great that you mentioned it!
  • #7,534
  • Oct 10, 2018 1:33am Oct 10, 2018 1:33am
Quoting strat
Confirmed Swings {quote} The most important PRICE in PASR is the CLOSE huatzhi has already provided you with the link to my Confirmed Swing document plus there are more in the "old" thread. Thank you huatzhi. - TRADERS HELPING TRADERS I saw on the path that you talked about the candle having to take out the low or high I am sure this was in some other context as I have never changed the qualification of my Swings. Please post this so that I can understand the context. Once again, there has to be a CLOSE above the HIGH of the Lowest Low candle to...
Hi again, Strat!

Thanks for taking time to answer and clear my confusion! Your reply definitely helped, and i am most certain not only me, but others as well.

The link to that document is here. And you mention many times terms like 'break', 'exceed', 'take out', which led me to believe you look at the live candle to break the previous one's low/high to confirm the swing (as long as it is the lowest/highest candle):

'2. Price breaks below the marked bar's low or,
3. Price breaks below the last bullish bar's low since the swing high.'

'For confirmation of a swing, the OPPOSITE end of the candle must be taken out (exceeded)'

'So, for a CONFIRMED swing high, the highest candle must have its LOW taken out and Vicky Verka for a CONFIRMED swing low.'

'Therefore, your marked candle is CONFIRMED as a swing high the following week when it’s LOW is taken out.'

And then the same happens in the picture that you included in that document, you talk about high/low being taken out, exceeded, but not about the close.

The image you used in your reply makes it all clear now, and probably many had their swings wrong until now. Which makes me wonder why you have not commented on my post where I replied to BTS about having some of his swings identified incorrectly, the ones that that I marked with a 'X'. Seeing that you do not provide an answer and then re-reading the document in the path, I thought I was wrong and his swings were all correct, when, in fact, he got those wrong, after all. The reply to his post is here. For the record, it is not about who is right and who is wrong, none of that matters to me, this is about learning and understanding, and I am very glad your reply was crystal clear. Thank you!
  • #7,535
  • Oct 10, 2018 1:35am Oct 10, 2018 1:35am
Quoting strat
PASR {quote} My only disappointment is that he, like all those who became "consistently profitable", left the thread and public trading forums and had no desire to help others.
Strat , as you mentioned that here. When I read the old thread I exactly ask me the question what happened to all of the people of the old thread? I assume that they did not quit trading. But did they just disappear or are you still in contact (not on this thread, of course) with them?
I am just asking out of curiosity.
  • #7,536
  • Oct 10, 2018 1:52am Oct 10, 2018 1:52am
Quoting Malu
{quote} Strat , as you mentioned that here. When I read the old thread I exactly ask me the question what happened to all of the people of the old thread? I assume that they did not quit trading. But did they just disappear or are you still in contact (not on this thread, of course) with them? I am just asking out of curiosity.

Malu,

Last time when I talked about this topic..I sort of hit a sensitive nerve of Strat's . So this might hit his nerve again when He reads this..
Fingers crossed..

Suranga
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #7,537
  • Oct 10, 2018 1:59am Oct 10, 2018 1:59am
Trying to see beyond the candles on GBP/JPY in the last couple of weeks.
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  • #7,538
  • Oct 10, 2018 2:28am Oct 10, 2018 2:28am
Quoting Rub
Trying to see beyond the candles on GBP/JPY in the last couple of weeks. {image}

Hi Rub,

It seams PRICE sort of struggling to break 149.65 level and is also Supported by BOSS Strat shadow, Worker 200 and S/R levels below. So that seams to be the reason its going side ways.

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Just my understanding..

Suranga
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #7,539
  • Oct 10, 2018 2:32am Oct 10, 2018 2:32am
Quoting Suran
{quote} Malu, Last time when I talked about this topic..I sort of hit a sensitive nerve of Strat's . So this might hit his nerve again when He reads this.. Fingers crossed.. Suranga
Hi Suran, thanks for the hint, but that was not my intention. As mentioned above: "just" curiosity. If Strat doesn't want to speak about that topic, it is fine for me too.
  • #7,540
  • Oct 10, 2018 2:36am Oct 10, 2018 2:36am
Quoting Suran
{quote} Hi Rub, It seams PRICE sort of struggling to break 149.65 level and is also Supported by BOSS Strat shadow, Worker 200 and S/R levels below. So that seams to be the reason its going side ways. {image} {image} Just my understanding.. Suranga

Yes, just sort of going nowhere at the moment, but looks to me like there's someone accumulating positions for a push higher with all the wicks and smaller moves down. Of course I'm quite likely to be wrong as right!
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