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  • #15,961
  • Oct 3, 2018 9:39am Oct 3, 2018 9:39am
...and short bonds been a pretty solid call, not that I made much on it tho
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,962
  • Oct 3, 2018 9:46pm Oct 3, 2018 9:46pm
G'day Moneymaker Sent you a pm if you get a chance it would be much appreciated.
Cheers
We are all One. Be present. Be the Observer
  • #15,963
  • Edited Oct 4, 2018 6:09am Oct 3, 2018 11:28pm | Edited Oct 4, 2018 6:09am
Quoting The Fool
I am playing EWZ north & south with lots of time. General elections this weekend with probable runoff for top dog 10/28. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rnd=markets-vp
We have not seen peak vol yet

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...dential-latest
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,964
  • Oct 4, 2018 6:41pm Oct 4, 2018 6:41pm
Here is a couple that look pretty good for the next few days:

FFIV Oct19 185 CALL @ $1.90 or better

SPGI Oct19 195 CALL @ $2.10 or better
  • #15,965
  • Oct 4, 2018 7:32pm Oct 4, 2018 7:32pm
Quoting The Fool
I am playing EWZ north & south with lots of time. General elections this weekend with probable runoff for top dog 10/28.

I'm not sure if I'm getting this right or not, but does that mean you:

Bought Jan 46 CALL
Sold Nov 45 CALL

Bought Nov 42 PUT
Sold Dec 43 PUT

Like I said, I'm not sure if I got this right or not, just trying to understand what you did and why you did it (as in how it makes money). This is second nature to you, but totally foreign concepts for me.
  • #15,966
  • Oct 5, 2018 9:10am Oct 5, 2018 9:10am
TIME spreads p/l performs best in rising volatility. The blue line is options iv.

There's an election in Brazil this weekend and the runoff election is 10/28. It boils down to a binary choice: socialists = market enemy / fascist = market friend. The race too close to call and no candidate likely to win a 50% majority this weekend so it will go to the 10/28 runoff. So iv's will remain elevated in the Oct weeklies.

With iv, I look too sell high, buy low. If you don't know what iv is, it can roughly be understood as options value.

The EWZ scenario is a classic setup for time spreads, because I can sell the front option for a premium relative to the back option, even though the latter has more time value.

So, I have been putting on a variety of EWZ calendars and diagonals.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,967
  • Oct 5, 2018 9:41am Oct 5, 2018 9:41am
here's a double calendar trade I am contemplating today. I'm looking to spend less than 15c on this trade. I can make money on this trade in a wide variety of ways:

1) if iv's stay elevated up to the runoff, the trade could be profitable over a very wide range of EWZ share value - apprx $25 to $45. I could take some off before expiry
2) I could hold til the front options expire worthless on Nov 2 and see if there's some big moves in the following week. With luck, I could get into this scenario and my $1500 risk could very well pay over $50k.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2018-10-05_0730ewz2.png Size: 262 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2018-10-05_0734ew3.png Size: 264 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,968
  • Oct 5, 2018 10:05am Oct 5, 2018 10:05am
Quoting The Fool
I could hold til the front options expire worthless on Nov 2 and see if there's some big moves in the following week. With luck, I could get into this scenario and my $1500 risk could very well pay over $50k.
so it depends on what will happen in the week following the runoff. I could go thru a lot of scenarios but it all boils down to how far and how fast Brazilian stocks will move. So, since I am not The Magician (still only The Fool) I have to guess and shotgun it - I will have Nov2/9 calendars at many strikes at both ends....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,969
  • Oct 8, 2018 1:43pm Oct 8, 2018 1:43pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} so it depends on what will happen in the week following the runoff.
I kind of thought JB would do better than polling had shown. But that he would not get to 50%. So far so good. But his showing was so strong, I won't be surprised now if Brazil stocks grind upwards until the runoff. The latter remains a binary event, with JB defeat the long shot.

I was trading fotm positions, but if EWZ continues up, I will have to start taking some of those off - first stop a 11/2-11/16 $40 calendar.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,970
  • Oct 8, 2018 7:26pm Oct 8, 2018 7:26pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I kind of thought JB would do better than polling had shown. But that he would not get to 50%. So far so good. But his showing was so strong, I won't be surprised now if Brazil stocks grind upwards until the runoff. The latter remains a binary event, with JB defeat the long shot.
buzz is it will be tight and there's a 20-30% undecided chunk in the electorate that will keep pollsters and pundits guessing. Looking for ivs to keep elevated and hopefully see new highs up to the runoff.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,971
  • Oct 10, 2018 8:11am Oct 10, 2018 8:11am
polls n tweets n fake news oh my

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rally-has-legs
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,972
  • Oct 10, 2018 11:21am Oct 10, 2018 11:21am
Quoting moneymaker2
Here is a couple that look pretty good for the next few days: FFIV Oct19 185 CALL @ $1.90 or better SPGI Oct19 195 CALL @ $2.10 or better
Didn't get into these and tried to post a comment over the weekend on my phone but it still hasn't shown up yet. I thought the markets would be down after Saturday's vote so there was no use in getting CALLS when the market is probably moving down.

But, to be fair, they were recommended Thursday night and even though both could have been sold then for a small profit on Friday, since my message to not get in Monday (or get out if already in) never showed on the thread over the weekend, we will consider these a total loss for this month's picks.

The are still in a good position to move up, and will be recommended again in the next few days, but since they are CALLS, gotta wait for the market to have good futures pre-market.

(BTW: just tried to post again from my phone, but nothing showing up. I have to figure out what's going on with that....)
  • #15,973
  • Edited 6:58pm Oct 10, 2018 5:54pm | Edited 6:58pm
I didn't have anything short the market to catch this drop. I had thought we would see this and I had setups but they came off last week.

Today I bot Oct17 $285 calls for 95c thinking to leg in with short calls @ Oct15 or Oct17, a btfd bet. Not so sure now but it was not a large bet. Most of my big money riding on EWZ as noted variously above....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,974
  • Oct 10, 2018 8:11pm Oct 10, 2018 8:11pm
I would think that after such a big drop in the DOW today, we will get a flat or up pre-market futures tomorrow.

If futures are flat or up, these should do well. If futures are down, I wouldn't enter a trade at the open, except maybe DIA....

DIA Oct19 260 CALL @$1.58 or better (If futures are up much, you won't be able to get in at this price. Might be worthwhile getting in up to ~$1.75, since the big drop will be erased over the next couple of days)

FFIV Oct19 175 CALL @ $1.35 or better

SPGI Oct19 190 CALL @ $0.70 or better
  • #15,975
  • Oct 10, 2018 10:50pm Oct 10, 2018 10:50pm
Quoting moneymaker2
since the big drop will be erased over the next couple of days)
/es down 20 now, watch the ^TNX, if bonds continue falling stocks will do the same
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,976
  • Oct 11, 2018 4:49am Oct 11, 2018 4:49am
if Brazil is headed for a wave of privatization, who are the winners and losers?

https://mises.org/wire/brazils-comin...e-free-economy
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,977
  • Oct 11, 2018 4:54am Oct 11, 2018 4:54am
Quoting The Fool
here's a double calendar trade I am contemplating today. I'm looking to spend less than 15c on this trade. I can make money on this trade in a wide variety of ways: 1) if iv's stay elevated up to the runoff, the trade could be profitable over a very wide range of EWZ share value - apprx $25 to $45. I could take some off before expiry 2) I could hold til the front options expire worthless on Nov 2 and see if there's some big moves in the following week. With luck, I could get into this scenario and my $1500 risk could very well pay over $50k. {image}...

good luck man, I'll be rooting for ya...and you can pick up our bar tabs in Reno when it comes in....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #15,978
  • Oct 11, 2018 11:31am Oct 11, 2018 11:31am
Quoting The Fool
I didn't have anything short the market to catch this drop. I had thought we would see this and I had setups but they came off last week. Today I bot Oct17 $285 calls for 95c thinking to leg in with short calls @ Oct15 or Oct17, a btfd bet. Not so sure now but it was not a large bet. Most of my big money riding on EWZ as noted variously above....
still fishing reversal as I see 10y rates coming down....bot a SPY $279 call calendar Oct12/15 for 50c....bot when SPY was down in the $274.xx
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,979
  • Oct 11, 2018 1:59pm Oct 11, 2018 1:59pm
got in a SPY bear put spread, Nov2 $262.5/260, for 50c credit...covers the $279 call calendar above (with luck)

filled a SPY call calendar, Oct19/22 $282 for 11c debit
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,980
  • Oct 11, 2018 2:28pm Oct 11, 2018 2:28pm
spoos was down 70+ at one point, I won't be surprised if it rallies towards b/e by the close...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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