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The One: Price Action and Reaction

  • #2,081
  • Oct 3, 2018 7:49pm Oct 3, 2018 7:49pm
AUDUSD H1

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This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #2,082
  • Oct 4, 2018 10:48am Oct 4, 2018 10:48am
EUR 1h basic chart and zoom
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #2,083
  • Oct 4, 2018 12:34pm Oct 4, 2018 12:34pm
Quoting eaglestar
{quote} Very Good {image}
Hi Eaglestar,

I have 2 question I hope you don't mind answering:

1. Do you only trade in the direction of the Pitchfork like Dr. Tim Morge or do you also take counter trend trades?
2. Your chart, I know it is a 5min chart but can you explain your thinking when price was in the circle ?
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  • #2,084
  • Oct 4, 2018 12:47pm Oct 4, 2018 12:47pm
Quoting mbrown
{quote} Hi Eaglestar, I have 2 question I hope you don't mind answering: 1. Do you only trade in the direction of the Pitchfork like Dr. Tim Morge or do you also take counter trend trades? 2. Your chart, I know it is a 5min chart but can you explain your thinking when price was in the circle ? {image}
1. I usually only trade in the direction of the current dominating fork. If a new fork is forming, I wait for a test and retest.

2. You would either take profit from long on first arrow, or move up your stop loss to break even if you think that price is going to continue to upper median line. Remember, you are looking for 3:1 reward risk or better, so your target would be based on that. I would not be looking to short/sell to enter at the circle.
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #2,085
  • Oct 4, 2018 12:50pm Oct 4, 2018 12:50pm
Quoting eaglestar
{quote} 1. I usually only trade in the direction of the current dominating fork. If a new fork is forming, I wait for a test and retest. 2. You would either take profit from long on first arrow, or move up your stop loss to break even if you think that price is going to continue to upper median line. Remember, you are looking for 3:1 reward risk or better, so your target would be based on that. I would not be looking to short/sell to enter at the circle.
Thank you.
  • #2,086
  • Oct 4, 2018 1:46pm Oct 4, 2018 1:46pm
Quoting mbrown
{quote} Thank you.
If you thought EUR was going up and wanted to place a trade on the lower median line it may look something like this. If you thought it was going to be a sell it would be the opposite, off the upper pink line.
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #2,087
  • Oct 4, 2018 2:33pm Oct 4, 2018 2:33pm
Quoting eaglestar
{quote} If you thought EUR was going up and wanted to place a trade on the lower median line it may look something like this. If you thought it was going to be a sell it would be the opposite, off the upper pink line. {image} {image}
Thank you.

Do you consider the respective PF confirmed after the price action in the cycles?
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  • #2,088
  • Oct 4, 2018 7:45pm Oct 4, 2018 7:45pm
Quoting Winston Reed
This is EURUSD H1 chart. It shows a simple normal pitchfork with pivots A, B and C clearly labeled. Pivots tend to be highlighted by outstanding PA (shown by the purple arrows). This fork is actually already completed. This is so because after C price reached the center median line which is one of Andrew's most valuable rules.."price reaches the median line about 80% of the time". This basic yet valuable observation is quite valuable. {image} 3022941 So I thought perhaps we could just follow price from here and see what happens.
The C pivot of the blue fork was confirmed as shown by the yellow arrows. Price not only continues to the median line but zooms it with a WRB gap. Despite this price grinds back up through the WRB gap and then surpasses it in not so dramatic fashion but with this pivot C of the green fork is confirmed. Price moves into the confirmed pivot C of the blue fork and is rejected before reaching the median line of the green fork and also the upper blue median line. Price is now floating around the upper blue medan line.

This scenario represents an opposing fork scenario and one is left to decide what to do. Given the overall downward direction of this market on this frame it's not difficult to be persuaded to find shorts. The sellers have shown themselves at the area of the confirmed blue C pivot. Buyers below don't seem that strong but who knows. Tomorrow's NFP so....
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  • #2,089
  • Oct 6, 2018 9:25pm Oct 6, 2018 9:25pm
Stress-free analysis on the weekend. I'm back to 20min charts to keep in line with the group I study with. This is a single line drawn off relative swings. Price has broken the line to the down side. So we'll see what happens.
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  • #2,090
  • Oct 7, 2018 7:01pm Oct 7, 2018 7:01pm
Messin' with the 2 min chart. LOL.
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  • #2,091
  • Oct 12, 2018 12:43pm Oct 12, 2018 12:43pm
To all new followers, and old as well. I have been going through a tough week in my personal life, and I hope to return next week. Please keep me in your thoughts and prayers.

Best,
ES
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #2,092
  • Oct 12, 2018 12:44pm Oct 12, 2018 12:44pm
On a lighter note...

The forks had predicted the fall in the SandP since last week.
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #2,093
  • Oct 13, 2018 8:00pm Oct 13, 2018 8:00pm
Quoting eaglestar
To all new followers, and old as well. I have been going through a tough week in my personal life, and I hope to return next week. Please keep me in your thoughts and prayers. Best, ES
Take care ES. You are in our prayers.
  • #2,094
  • Oct 13, 2018 8:06pm Oct 13, 2018 8:06pm
This is a 20 min EURUSD chart.
The colored horizontal rectangles denote swings.
The browns reveal relative swings to the downside. A line is drawn that gets violated to the upside.
The oranges reveal relative swings to the upside. A line is drawn that gets violated to the downside.

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  • #2,095
  • Oct 13, 2018 8:17pm Oct 13, 2018 8:17pm
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  • #2,096
  • Oct 17, 2018 9:31am Oct 17, 2018 9:31am
Eur 1h mod schiff
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #2,097
  • Oct 17, 2018 9:31am Oct 17, 2018 9:31am
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Take care ES. You are in our prayers.
Thank you brother.
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #2,098
  • Oct 17, 2018 9:44am Oct 17, 2018 9:44am
Quoting mbrown
{quote} Thank you. Do you consider the respective PF confirmed after the price action in the cycles? {image}
Yes, check this screenshot and let me know if you have questions.
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #2,099
  • Oct 17, 2018 12:14pm Oct 17, 2018 12:14pm
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  • #2,100
  • Oct 17, 2018 12:15pm Oct 17, 2018 12:15pm
Quoting eaglestar
{quote} Yes, check this screenshot and let me know if you have questions. {image}
Thank you.

There is a rule that states if price approaches a median line and fails to reach it (red circle), expect price to reverse by a larger distance than the distance of the failed approach. Should the distance be measured vertically or diagonally?

Thank you.
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