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The ART of trading by Petar_Serbia

  • #2,901
  • Sep 5, 2018 3:34am Sep 5, 2018 3:34am
Hello traders,
This morning I am bullish on EUR/USD from 1.1560. I found emotional selling this morning and 2x 3 wide prints on session separated profile, which is a sign of weak money selling. I also found a potential intraday buying tail and today's value is overlapping to higher relative to the previous day (bullish). Yesterday's close was well of the low, which is another sign that sellers might be got trapped. Today's point of control at 1.1582. I am targeting 40-50 pips.


Petar
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,902
  • Sep 5, 2018 4:28am Sep 5, 2018 4:28am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hello traders, This morning I am bullish on EUR/USD from 1.1560. I found emotional selling this morning and 2x 3 wide prints on session separated profile, which is a sign of weak money selling. I also found a potential intraday buying tail and today's value is overlapping to higher relative to the previous day (bullish). Yesterday's close was well of the low, which is another sign that sellers might be got trapped. Today's point of control at 1.1582. I am targeting 40-50 pips. Petar {image} {image}
Good read by me this morning. Price went very fast into the value and re-visited today's POC and covered some of the anomalies from overnight session. Targeting the level around 1.1608-1.1620. So much of a trading is understanding the nuances and reading the background. Traders blindly follow the price without enough knowledge and understanding of the context of the price. Price is nothing more and nothing less than the advertising mechanism.
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,903
  • Sep 5, 2018 8:33am Sep 5, 2018 8:33am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
{quote} Good read by me this morning. Price went very fast into the value and re-visited today's POC and covered some of the anomalies from overnight session. Targeting the level around 1.1608-1.1620. So much of a trading is understanding the nuances and reading the background. Traders blindly follow the price without enough knowledge and understanding of the context of the price. Price is nothing more and nothing less than the advertising mechanism. {image}
Took 50 pips and I am done for today. I did nice read on today's market. 2:1 RRR ... Careful with any shorts since the market reacts to Brexit information.

The Three Deadly Trader Traps

1. Emotions. Causing you to do things that are irrational
Most of the trading is done by the emotional rush from traders rather than rational decision. You need to learn how to recognize emotional activity on market and try to benefit from them. Market profile is doing a good job in understanding these.


2. Opinions. Forming an idea that limits your vision
If your only thing in one direction and don't understand that at any given time there are at least 3-4 possible scenarios, which may happen. Your job like professional trader is to understand and trade when the odds for one of these scenarios is high. It is all about probabilities.

3. Ego. Keeping you from admitting and correcting mistakes
If you always put everything on the market and that this time market is hard bla bla bla, you won't learn from your mistakes, which is key in this business. You grow like a trader once you put your ego aside and always work to improve and correct what is your weakness.

If you work on these 3 and try to improve, your chances are much higher to make a success...

Seya tomorrow
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,904
  • Sep 17, 2018 10:23am Sep 17, 2018 10:23am
Hello traders,
Got some time to post current situation on the EUR/USD and the potential play of the day. The Monday opened below the value relative to the Friday. The sellers tried to trade below Friday's low at the price of 1.1620 but they got rejected (initiation failure), which was a good sign that we might see rally today. In the U print, I found the buying tail and that was a good sign for potential long positions. The Friday's POC and value didn't migrate with the price, which was a sign that sellers got "short in the hole". Notice also the poor Friday's high at the price of 1.1721 ( possible long liquidation). Some of my students took the long from 1.1632 and closed around 1.1690. Anyway, if you are US session intraday trader, now buying looks very risky since the price is trading above today's POC (1.1632) and above today's value. The value for today is actually lower relative to Friday's value.

Advice for US session traders is to watch for potential selling opportunities since the price might back into the value and even into the POC at 1.1632. I also saw that price got big problems (slow tempo) to go above Friday's POC at 1.1691, which is a sign that sellers may step in due to no buying orders.

If you have any question, feel free to ask. Also, there is space for mentorship program if you want to join and learn how to observe market on the smart way.

Best Regards,
Petar
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,905
  • Sep 18, 2018 5:02am Sep 18, 2018 5:02am
Hello traders,
Got the time to post my view on EUR/USD for today. As I marked yesterday, the whole day was very poor from buyers. In my opinion, the weak buyers bought yesterday since the structure looks very weak with 4 distributions and few anomalies. Also, notice that POC (point of control) didn't migrate higher with the price (sign of weakness). Today, I found that buyers tried to initiate long positions but with no success, we got selling tail in U print and fake breakout of yesterday's high at the price of 1.1699 (same time as yesterday fake breakout of the low), which is sign aggressive sellers entered the market. What I also found is acceptance into yesterday's value (VAH at 1.1683 ), which is a sign that sellers are taking control from weak buyers. The value for today is building higher but in relation to the points I mentioned earlier it is less important. So much of the trading is understanding the background and then trying to analyze foreground in relation with the background. The background is always stronger than the foreground but when the background is neutral the foreground can dominate.

Downward references >

Poor low for today at 1.1666
Yesterday's Anomaly at 1.1647
Yesterday's POC at 1.1632
Yesterday's low at 1.1617

I will again call everyone who wants to join mentorship program and start seriously trading to join. Trading is not a game, it is a very serious business and in today's market, you will have very little chance to make a success if you are not equipped with a strong knowledge and understanding of the market. The thing is that I teach my students the way they should think, not mechanical buying and selling. If you want to become professional the first thing is to think like a professional and watch the market like professionals. There are no indicators involved in my trading, just understanding of the price action and having tremendous pieces of information from the market profile database.

Best Regards,
Petar
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,906
  • Sep 18, 2018 11:19am Sep 18, 2018 11:19am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hello traders, Got the time to post my view on EUR/USD for today. As I marked yesterday, the whole day was very poor from buyers. In my opinion, the weak buyers bought yesterday since the structure looks very weak with 4 distributions and few anomalies. Also, notice that POC (point of control) didn't migrate higher with the price (sign of weakness). Today, I found that buyers tried to initiate long positions but with no success, we got selling tail in U print and fake breakout of yesterday's high at the price of 1.1699 (same time as yesterday fake...
The price went to repair the poor high from Friday at the price 1.1721 and it got rejected. Everything is same as like I marked early in the morning. Yesterday buying, in my opinion, was very weak and it came from weak traders. I expect in next period re-visiting of Monday anomaly at 1.1648 and potentially POC at 1.1632.

Seyu tomorrow
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,907
  • Sep 18, 2018 11:52am Sep 18, 2018 11:52am
Amazing work as usual. Thank you for your continued efforts!
gotta lose to win big...
  • #2,908
  • Sep 19, 2018 6:12am Sep 19, 2018 6:12am
Quoting Tripletease
Amazing work as usual. Thank you for your continued efforts!
Thank you very much Tripletease for your kind words

Update on EUR/USD. Today we have balancing mode on the EUR/USD. The whole day is inside of the previous day, which represents balancing. Anyway, the whole background still looks weak from buying side. The Monday was a very poor day for buyers and yesterday we got balancing day with very fat POC suggesting indecision. The nuance we got yesterday is that price went to repair the poor Friday high at 1.1721 and immediately got rejected, which is a sign that buyers got too long and got rejected from the important reference. Today the value is building overlapping to lower and the point of control is building lower relative to yesterday, which is good bearish sign. The first major downward reference is balance low at 1.1651 and later the Monday anomaly at 1.1647 and then Monday POC at 1.1632. For any upside continuation, I would like to see the breakout and acceptance above the 1.1724. So much of the trading is understanding the nuances and the market profile provides a good database and real-time evolving auction to understand these nuances.

If you have any question, feel free to ask >


Best Regards,
Petar
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,909
  • Sep 21, 2018 5:42am Sep 21, 2018 5:42am
Hello good people
Finally got some time to post analysis. I will cover EUR/USD since got a lot of questions of what happened yesterday and what do I expect in future. The market profile is a great tool (type of chart) to understand the nuances and read the market structure. Yesterday, most of the traders saw the strength cause they saw that strong bullish bar closed on the high but understanding the underlying structure is far more important from where the price closed and how your bar looks like. The yesterday's structure was very weak and very emotional in my opinion, this is not any serious money entered the market in my opinion. I found 4 distributions yesterday (usually sign of emotional trading) and I found a lot of anomalies (another sign of emotional trading). Today, I found that traders trying to initiate buying positions led by yesterday good close but they failed (failed initiation), which is a sign of weakness. The price looked above the yesterday's high at 1.1784 and failed letting the single prints (selling tail in W print). If the price dont go lower to visit downward references it may be a neutral day since we already got fat POC for today but the upward price and new daily high is less likely to happen in my opinion.

If you have any question feel free to ask >

I am bearish today on EUR/USD with the downward references by this order >

1.1738 (pullback low)
1.1725 (4-day high)

Best Regards,
Petar
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,910
  • Sep 24, 2018 7:39am Sep 24, 2018 7:39am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hello good people Finally got some time to post analysis. I will cover EUR/USD since got a lot of questions of what happened yesterday and what do I expect in future. The market profile is a great tool (type of chart) to understand the nuances and read the market structure. Yesterday, most of the traders saw the strength cause they saw that strong bullish bar closed on the high but understanding the underlying structure is far more important from where the price closed and how your bar looks like. The yesterday's structure was very weak...
Hello traders,
Just update on EUR/USD, I did perfect exit on EUR/USD at 1.1725 on my intraday position which I carried over the weekend. I am even more proud when I do exit perfect then on entries, both are equally important. The current daily low is at 1.1724, which is the area os single prints from 2 days ago. Current daily low is poor (t print) and it may be a task for re-visiting in the future. The price went below Friday's low at 1.1732 and back-up, which caused the momentum traders to jump in but the value development is overlapping lower relative to the Friday's value. Current daily point of control is at 1.1742 and it is not migrating higher (sign of weakness). Price is currently trading around 1.1764 and it looks very poor for any buyers at this stage, it seems that demand is dying here. There is a possibility that day may develop into double distribution trend day but that value and POC are lower relatives to the current price and we might expect re-visiting of POC or even poor daily low at 1.1724. For any meaningful downward movement, I would like to see acceptance below the 1.1721 (low range of separation).

In case that price and momentum continue upside we got Friday's POC at 1.1779 and Friday's high at 1.1803. Anyway, I give more chance for further downward progress due to poor low and value development together with POC lower.

If you have any question or if you are interested in starting a mentorship program, feel free to ask here to add me on skype petar.jacimovic

Best Regards,
Petar
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,911
  • Sep 24, 2018 9:37am Sep 24, 2018 9:37am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
{quote} Hello traders, Just update on EUR/USD, I did perfect exit on EUR/USD at 1.1725 on my intraday position which I carried over the weekend. I am even more proud when I do exit perfect then on entries, both are equally important. The current daily low is at 1.1724, which is the area os single prints from 2 days ago. Current daily low is poor (t print) and it may be a task for re-visiting in the future. The price went below Friday's low at 1.1732 and back-up, which caused the momentum traders to jump in but the value development is overlapping...
After the Draghi speech today emotional traders went to buy but in my opinion, they got caught in a trap. Price went above last week high at 1.1803 and failed to sustain (unfair high - excess). My view is still bearish due to value overlapping to lower and POC is lower for today at 1.1741 together with a poor low at 1.1724. We might still see re-test of these references. So much of the trading is understanding the nuances and understanding what is your competition is doing...

Careful with longs and watch for potential selling >
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,912
  • Edited 5:42am Sep 26, 2018 5:01am | Edited 5:42am
YOU INSPIRED ME TO LEARN! Thank you.

I am enterning trades w/ a scalping strategy so asian session high is a good destination for me i think. sorry the image is kind of confusing I just wanted to think if my logic seems right.

london session of today I saw, excess ( i dont know if to classify it as a week tail since its so close to prominent P.O.C of yesterday)

i am bullish for today trading with value'

if we look above A Period High and fail destination is london low

i know i got more work learning to do! can u send email on your mentoring i dont have skype but down the road in the future i think i will sign up [email protected] or i can email u to ask for like mentorship breakdown cost ect
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gotta lose to win big...
  • #2,913
  • Sep 26, 2018 7:00am Sep 26, 2018 7:00am
Quoting Tripletease
YOU INSPIRED ME TO LEARN! Thank you. I am enterning trades w/ a scalping strategy so asian session high is a good destination for me i think. sorry the image is kind of confusing I just wanted to think if my logic seems right. london session of today I saw, excess ( i dont know if to classify it as a week tail since its so close to prominent P.O.C of yesterday) i am bullish for today trading with value' if we look above A Period High and fail destination is london low i know i got more work learning to do! can u send email on your mentoring i dont...
looking forward to US SESSION.
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gotta lose to win big...
  • #2,914
  • Sep 26, 2018 7:13am Sep 26, 2018 7:13am
Quoting Tripletease
YOU INSPIRED ME TO LEARN! Thank you. I am enterning trades w/ a scalping strategy so asian session high is a good destination for me i think. sorry the image is kind of confusing I just wanted to think if my logic seems right. london session of today I saw, excess ( i dont know if to classify it as a week tail since its so close to prominent P.O.C of yesterday) i am bullish for today trading with value' if we look above A Period High and fail destination is london low i know i got more work learning to do! can u send email on your mentoring i dont...
Wow, thank you for your very kind wards Tripletease , I am happy that I inspire someone
Your analysis is not bad for the first analysis, it is also good if you want to start a program to have some background of what I am doing so you can easily understand the subjects. The market profile and the whole process of analyzing and managing position is very large and it takes a lot of knowledge, patience, and practice to make it consistent. This is also business where the experience plays a big role and every day working on to improve like a trader and work on own weakness to make it less impactful on trading. I am also very surprised how many traders, teachers around speak about indicator based systems and only speak about where to enter. The equally important is managing position on the proper way cause at the end of the day that would make a difference in pnl. On my complete mentorship program, I put a lot of time in managing position and observe the position for continuation.

You can email me on [email protected] and ask me anything you like >

Best Regards,
Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,915
  • Edited 9:24am Sep 26, 2018 7:58am | Edited 9:24am
Quoting Tripletease
{quote} looking forward to US SESSION. {image}
And now i go to sleep. I'll stop spamming now Petar

decision point 148.570 what will happen signs of continuation or rejection?THAT level 148.570 level is london session POC.. idk i just like being aware of that level

EDIT: IT IS 10:12 AM EST POC MIGRATED HIGHER ROTATION TO THE POOR LOW OF TODAY LESS LIKELY

MARKET WENT BACK AND FORTH THROUGH OPEN.... = INDECISION.
I WOULD WAIT FOR MARKET TO HOPEFULY CREATE A TIGHT BALANCE AND TRADE AGAINST TRAPPED TRADERS W/ A BREAKOUT FROM BALANCE (PERFERABLY AN INSIDE BAR BREAKOUT TO THE UPSIDE.) I LOVE TRAPPED TRADERS THEY GIVE YOU AN EDGE WITH YOUR STRATEGIES . IF I DECIDE TRADE TO AGAINST VALUE I PREFER SEEING OBVIOUS SIGNS OF TRAPPED TRADERS BEING PUSHED TO COVER OR LIQUIDATE THEIR POSITIONS BECAUSE IT GIVES ME MORE MOMENTUM.

caps lock vinny in da cut
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gotta lose to win big...
  • #2,916
  • Sep 26, 2018 11:09am Sep 26, 2018 11:09am
Quoting Tripletease
{quote} And now i go to sleep. I'll stop spamming now Petar decision point 148.570 what will happen signs of continuation or rejection?THAT level 148.570 level is london session POC.. idk i just like being aware of that level EDIT: IT IS 10:12 AM EST POC MIGRATED HIGHER ROTATION TO THE POOR LOW OF TODAY LESS LIKELY MARKET WENT BACK AND FORTH THROUGH OPEN.... = INDECISION. I WOULD WAIT FOR MARKET TO HOPEFULY CREATE A TIGHT BALANCE AND TRADE AGAINST TRAPPED TRADERS W/ A BREAKOUT FROM BALANCE (PERFERABLY AN INSIDE BAR...
Last postof the day

i think market is still to long and exhausted and will pull back( because of invenory adjustment/long liquidation of initiative buyers above value) this is just reference for me to look back on maybe i should create my own journal since this is your thread.
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gotta lose to win big...
  • #2,917
  • Sep 28, 2018 8:24am Sep 28, 2018 8:24am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
{quote} After the Draghi speech today emotional traders went to buy but in my opinion, they got caught in a trap. Price went above last week high at 1.1803 and failed to sustain (unfair high - excess). My view is still bearish due to value overlapping to lower and POC is lower for today at 1.1741 together with a poor low at 1.1724. We might still see re-test of these references. So much of the trading is understanding the nuances and understanding what is your competition is doing... Careful with longs and watch for potential selling > {image}
Hello everyone,
Just wanted to post an update on EUR/USD since I didn't have time to update you about my positioning. Was very busy with my trading for the institution. I sold yesterday EUR/USD from 1.1705 and closed today at 1.1575. It was the best position this month and took around 3.5%. The FOMC day created very fat POC and the price even didn't have the power to test on the following day that fat POC, that is a big sign of weakness. Remember what didn't happen can sometimes give you more clue then what happened (it is a skill that only a few traders have). The day after the FOMC the price did break of 4-day balance with very good speed and started to create a trend double distribution day, which was the sign that larger time time-frame traders potentially stepped in.

Notice the September 20 bullish day. This day got a lot of weakness inside. It got poor low, multiple distributions (sign of emotional buying) and it got POC which didn't migrate higher. This day for itself was the big warning for buyers and underlying weakness even you see that price went a little bit higher the next day Sep21. After that EUR/USD created balance and day after FOMC larger time-frame traders started to sell. Reading the background is vital to understanding the underlying structure of the market.

To make a consistent profit you need a valuable knowledge, you need to be ahead of the competition and you need to do a lot of hard work to be on the spot to make a consistent profit. Market Profile is a great tool to organize the market in the statistical way where we can read a lot of data points and structural important clues. If you are looking for a mentor and if you want to start and increase your level of trading on institutional, you can contact me via skype petar.jacimovic for more details about the program.



Have a good weekend everyone
Petar
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,918
  • Oct 4, 2018 8:33am Oct 4, 2018 8:33am
Hello,
very interesting, which tpo charts use them
that i used riv ay TPOChart.v102-6
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  • #2,919
  • Oct 9, 2018 6:03am Oct 9, 2018 6:03am
Quoting kette
Hello, very interesting, which tpo charts use them that i used riv ay TPOChart.v102-6 {image} {image}
Hello traders and hello kette,
I was very busy with my trading for the institution and didn't have so much time to post an update but today I got some time to update you on my current view. I use TPOChart2 indy to make the profile chart.

Now, let's talk about EUR/USD atm. I will start with the fact that EUR/USD did break the 4-day balance (1.1458 low) but big CAUTION. This may be a big trap for sellers and in my opinion, sellers getting short in the hole (selling below value and below POC). The fairest price for today is at 1.1492 and it is very fat, that is not positive for the downside break. The second thing which caught my attention is the value for today is unchanged relative to the yesterday, which is another sign that this break may not last long. I want to stress out that I am neutral on EUR/USD but with the big caution on the further downside. Pay attention to the b single prints, the EUR/USD is trying to make a double distribution. Now, if the price back into yesterday's range (trade and print at 1.1460), there is a very good chance that price may back into today's value or even test the today's POC at 1.1492. The current low is poor and not secure but sometimes poor low is the result of the market that is "too short". I see that EUR/USD going lower is only if we create and hold double distribution.

So much of the trading is about understanding nuances and understand the background and the environment. It takes a lot of knowledge and practice to master it but once you master you will have a new dimension in your trading. For the traders who are struggling to make a consistent profit, you need more education and more qualified knowledge. The first thing I say to my students on the mentorship program is to get rid of the indicators on your chart and start with valuable references.

If you have any question in relation to the EUR/USD update or mentorship program, feel free to ask >>>

Best Regards,
Petar
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,920
  • Oct 9, 2018 9:43am Oct 9, 2018 9:43am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
{quote} Hello traders and hello kette, I was very busy with my trading for the institution and didn't have so much time to post an update but today I got some time to update you on my current view. I use TPOChart2 indy to make the profile chart. Now, let's talk about EUR/USD atm. I will start with the fact that EUR/USD did break the 4-day balance (1.1458 low) but big CAUTION. This may be a big trap for sellers and in my opinion, sellers getting short in the hole (selling below value and below POC). The fairest price for today is at 1.1492 and it...
As I mentioned earlier, sellers got trapped on the breakout of the balance and the price almost returned to the today's POC at 1.1492. If you understand the structure and understand the value you will be an advantage over average trader. I am amazed how many traders follow blindly price and base analysis on the price for itself.
Price is simply an advertising mechanism and nothing more. Price must be always viewed in the context of the underlying structure.

It took me years to master the structure and get away from the price itself.
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
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