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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #6,481
  • Oct 4, 2018 5:17am Oct 4, 2018 5:17am
Quoting Merka
{quote} Are you planning for a short or long? What's mean the yellow circles?
Hi Merka,

This chart example for emicovi,.... there is no quality zone before happening, after happening then you know your set up is the correct set up ....

cheers
  • #6,482
  • Oct 4, 2018 6:05am Oct 4, 2018 6:05am
This is live trade . perfect zone for me.
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  • #6,483
  • Edited 7:17am Oct 4, 2018 7:05am | Edited 7:17am
Quoting newbie2014
This is live trade . perfect zone for me. {image}

I see difference from your view ...

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and M30 ... bullish under control .

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D1 ...

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  • #6,484
  • Oct 4, 2018 12:20pm Oct 4, 2018 12:20pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} I use H4 zones, trend and PA as my directional reference chart (both D1 and H4 GMT and NY close candle charts) Not a good idea to trade zones solely off a LTF chart. There's a lot of these zones ready to take money out of your account, especially counter trend. That M30 PA (zone) was just price making a pullback within a downtrend. {image}
Thanks for the explanation.
Do you trade with a certain amount of subjectivity or do you have set rules like h4 downtrend coming from a daily/h4 supply = only trade shorts?
Or would you also go long once you hit a "good" (good = subjective, in my opinion) daily/h4 demand level while the trend will still be down?

Sometimes I trade these intraday levels a little bit aggressive although they still work out most of the time, they just give me a little bit of drawdown in between which is what I try to improve.
  • #6,485
  • Oct 4, 2018 6:45pm Oct 4, 2018 6:45pm
Quoting mrhb30jr
{quote} I see difference from your view ... {image} and M30 ... bullish under control . {image} D1 ... {image}
Thanks for the update mrhb30jr .. it was a lost trade . how can we get in to know that up trend is over ? wait for the 30 min trend to break ? Im still learning
  • #6,486
  • Oct 4, 2018 11:23pm Oct 4, 2018 11:23pm
Quoting newbie2014
{quote} Thanks for the update mrhb30jr .. it was a lost trade . how can we get in to know that up trend is over ? wait for the 30 min trend to break ? Im still learning
If trading off H4 it's good to have D1 analysis and W1 for longer term trend, zones, S/R and PA.

In such a strong uptrend, why try and pick a reversal against this mid-zone? Best to go with the flow of the market.

Also EURNZD? That's a crappy pair for me, same with things like GBPCHF or any CAD cross. I'd say stick with the majors initially.
  • #6,487
  • Edited 11:43pm Oct 4, 2018 11:28pm | Edited 11:43pm
Here's a couple of recent higher TF turkey shoot practice trades on NU and UJ. D1 next to H4 chart.

Notice these entries with the PA.

Try trading with the flow of market (trend) along side a higher TF and not counter trend zone trading. It will take some practice to change your perspective.
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  • #6,488
  • Oct 4, 2018 11:34pm Oct 4, 2018 11:34pm
Quoting NightRain
{quote} Thanks for the explanation. Do you trade with a certain amount of subjectivity or do you have set rules like h4 downtrend coming from a daily/h4 supply = only trade shorts? Or would you also go long once you hit a "good" (good = subjective, in my opinion) daily/h4 demand level while the trend will still be down? Sometimes I trade these intraday levels a little bit aggressive although they still work out most of the time, they just give me a little bit of drawdown in between which is what I try to improve.
Yes. You'll notice I very rarely trade classic Sam Seiden style "zone reversals" these days although I'm very aware of where the zones are.

It's all about the higher TF (D1/H4 zones, trend, PA, S/R etc) and then look to see if I can get some PA to get an entry with a tight stop. Also being aware of event risk, news output and just a lot of screen-time.

I think trading is more art than science, so the learning curve is very steep and needs years of dedication.
  • #6,489
  • Edited 2:38am Oct 5, 2018 1:35am | Edited 2:38am
Quoting C-12
Here's a couple of recent higher TF turkey shoot practice trades on NU and UJ. D1 next to H4 chart. Notice these entries with the PA. Try trading with the flow of market (trend) along side a higher TF and not counter trend zone trading. It will take some practice to change your perspective. {image} {image}

Hey C-12,
I've been around for quite some time on this awesome thread but haven't really posted. Might start!

Anyways I wanted to ask you, how do you know what is a strong zone on the HTF which could cause a reversal and where we have to be careful and possible take profit or where if the zone that is strong is too close to our entry we shouldn't enter? Like you say, we should not trade into HTF levels for obvious reason. Like how are you not scared of zone in the pic below even though it is RBR... just screentime and you knew it would get smashed? Of course if we see compression it is unlikely to hold and go through it as well as having big chop.

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(Sell in circled zone in case we see LTF PA

I know of course RBR, DBD are not very strong, but I see sometimes you trade into zones that aren't of that nature and they get smashed. From studying the thread I do recognise why sometimes. For example in the below picture:
Like in the pic I attached below, the zone that is coloured in with bright blue. First a candle touched it on (2) and rejected off of it, then we got engulf of (2) and that is the signal that we can continue selling even though inside this zone. I remember you showed us an example of this earlier in the thread.

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Somehow I can't manage to post the pics within Forexfactory page. Sorry for inconvenience.

Thank you C-12 for all the great posts!


(Disclaimer Also everyone: I am no pro so please ignore everything I say as it is likely not right!!! I am not responsible for anything!
  • #6,490
  • Oct 5, 2018 3:06am Oct 5, 2018 3:06am
Quoting C-12
Here's a couple of recent higher TF turkey shoot practice trades on NU and UJ. D1 next to H4 chart. Notice these entries with the PA. Try trading with the flow of market (trend) along side a higher TF and not counter trend zone trading. It will take some practice to change your perspective. {image} {image}
Thanks C-12 . Now i know what i have done wrong . thanks to you and your thread i solved the puzzle Dont know how to thanks you guys .
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  • #6,491
  • Oct 5, 2018 3:07am Oct 5, 2018 3:07am
Quoting C-12
{quote} If trading off H4 it's good to have D1 analysis and W1 for longer term trend, zones, S/R and PA. In such a strong uptrend, why try and pick a reversal against this mid-zone? Best to go with the flow of the market. Also EURNZD? That's a crappy pair for me, same with things like GBPCHF or any CAD cross. I'd say stick with the majors initially.
I will stick to major usd pairs . thanks for the advice
  • #6,492
  • Oct 5, 2018 8:26am Oct 5, 2018 8:26am
Quoting newbie2014
{quote} I will stick to major usd pairs . thanks for the advice
Hi I also trade the same method as C-12! Do you want to chat with each other on Discord/Telegram so we can discuss setups and those kinda stuff. Sorry if you've never seen me post. I have just been lurking and reading all pages of this thread for the past months and using this method. Would be cool if we can chat! Do you have Telegram or Discord? My username on Telegram is lensetrader111.
  • #6,493
  • Oct 5, 2018 8:46am Oct 5, 2018 8:46am
Quoting Lense
{quote} From studying the thread I do recognise why sometimes. For example in the below picture: Like in the pic I attached below, the zone that is coloured in with bright blue. First a candle touched it on (2) and rejected off of it, then we got engulf of (2) and that is the signal that we can continue selling even though inside this zone. I remember you showed us an example of this earlier in the thread. {image} Somehow I can't manage to post the pics within Forexfactory page. Sorry for inconvenience. Thank you C-12 for all the great posts! (Disclaimer...
Hi,
I'm not C-12 and everybody has a slightly different view on these things but maybe I can help you. First of all it probably sounds lame but in situations like the one you showed experience helps. An engulfing in the opposite direction of a zone doesn't mean the zone will break. An engulfing alone means nothing! The location and where the price is in the overall trend is important. Additionally there is often something like fake PA near a zone to suck in traders. What favours sells is that price makes lower highs and lower lows but you need a good reason like a proper location and nice PA to sell with confidence. That means you must watch lower time frames to find a good sell set up or to notice if new buyers join what would mean a sell is not a good idea even highter time frames tell you so. Maybe you want to post a ltf ss with your analysis and where you would take a sell trade. Btw EURGBP is at the moment heavily influenced by the brexit negotitations what means pound moves a bit erratic.
  • #6,494
  • Oct 5, 2018 9:14am Oct 5, 2018 9:14am
Quoting Lense
{quote} Hi I also trade the same method as C-12! Do you want to chat with each other on Discord/Telegram so we can discuss setups and those kinda stuff. Sorry if you've never seen me post. I have just been lurking and reading all pages of this thread for the past months and using this method. Would be cool if we can chat! Do you have Telegram or Discord? My username on Telegram is lensetrader111.
i have Tele_gram . i will add you .. If the members in here can make a group chat that will be great.
  • #6,495
  • Oct 5, 2018 8:39pm Oct 5, 2018 8:39pm
Quoting C-12
Here's a couple of recent higher TF turkey shoot practice trades on NU and UJ. D1 next to H4 chart. Notice these entries with the PA. Try trading with the flow of market (trend) along side a higher TF and not counter trend zone trading. It will take some practice to change your perspective. {image} {image}
C,

These aren't the best supply zones, but the red ones I marked on the daily - did you ignore these because the overall trend is up, and because the lower demand zones haven't been violated and new ones are still being created? I see the supply zone where you got out, is that a weekly zone or just a more prominent daily zone?

In other words, when do you decide that a reversal has occurred? Is it a trendline break, new zones being formed and respected, etc?

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  • #6,496
  • Oct 6, 2018 12:38pm Oct 6, 2018 12:38pm
Quoting jack411
{quote} C, These aren't the best supply zones, but the red ones I marked on the daily - did you ignore these because the overall trend is up, and because the lower demand zones haven't been violated and new ones are still being created? I see the supply zone where you got out, is that a weekly zone or just a more prominent daily zone? In other words, when do you decide that a reversal has occurred? Is it a trendline break, new zones being formed and respected, etc? {image}
If you scroll out on the D1 chart you can see the area to the left of that zone has been tested loads and the uptrend was strong.

Reversals are usually where you get a strong rejection, then perhaps a retest when fresh supply forms. I think trend-lines are useful but you can get false breaks.

It looks like UJ can go plenty higher from here.
  • #6,497
  • Oct 7, 2018 9:33pm Oct 7, 2018 9:33pm
First trade for the week
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  • #6,498
  • Oct 9, 2018 7:41am Oct 9, 2018 7:41am
nice long EU M30 bullish divergence & GU M30 price Tested H4 demand area ...

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  • #6,499
  • Oct 10, 2018 12:41pm Oct 10, 2018 12:41pm
After alot of headache trading,today... finally I caught one on GU 5m chart
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  • #6,500
  • Oct 10, 2018 3:23pm Oct 10, 2018 3:23pm
Gold M30.... my long set up..

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