C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

I think it's up to you to decide the style that better fits your personality. From what I understand, C-12 and others will wait for a M30, M15 or M5 engulfing in the direction of their entry to place their trade. Some other like myself prefer the risk of touch trades as it allows to enter earlier. In my case, it allows me to place a pending order and move on (set and forget).
Unless you have many hours of screen time and mastered reading the market movement, try to only trade first retests of each zone (fresh zone) for higher odds.

Cheers.

GJ trade triggered during asian session.
D1 - Price hit SZ recently and bounced
H4 - Nice LL which broke previous H4 DZ -> bias short
M30 - Located several SZ on the down move from last week, but as we are still waiting for HTF direction, I will only short from within the realms of HTF SZ (D1), so I decided to pick my first entry level inside D1/H4 confluence (at the top of the down move) and M30 SZ (trade A) just at the D1 distal line.
Trade A got triggered. I left it run over night, but early london session I monitored it for a bit, but I found it wasn't moving: As it stalled around the yellow congestion area I decided to bank profits (~1R) and close the trade until direction is clearer. My feeling is that the fight for the upmove is still going on...

Happy pips guys .. Lets see how this goes This is a live trade

Sell trade

Today, I'm posting something different: my 3 losses in a row!

I finally got to the derail point (again)

This is actually what I was looking for to understand myself as a trader. I am sharing this with everyone so that others understand that it is okay to lose "big" while you're practicing your methodology. You actually want the losses to appear, so that you can analyze your trades and see where you can improve and where your bad habits are.
I learned a lot today with these 3 losses and I am thankful for that, it will make me a better trader for the trades to come. Fast backward a few months and this would be when I wouldn't want to face them, would discard them as "small mistakes" and consider them useless in themselves. I was wrong, these are the trades that you WANT to look at with great detail !!
The more we do this type of analysis the more we develop good habits and overcome the flaws that keep us mediocre.
So here we go.

GBPJPY
H4 DZ seemed quite decent, with a good enough departure, but what was one rule from my plan that I did not respect here? ----> "WAIT FOR NEW HH/LL"
I marked the level as a potential rebound to go long "after a new HH", but I didn't take the time and wasn't attentive enough to check on this very basic rule!
Basically I went against supply being in control.
Even if I wanted to get a quick scalp against the bearish strength, this was a case of a zone inside a zone, which means that the probability of a deeper piercing into both zones was higher. Had I taken the entry at the lower DZ it would have eventually worked.



AUDCAD
H4 rule for a new LL was respected, even though the origin SZ of the new swing low has already been taken out. This should only mean that a pullback to may be in play, and also that a long on the H4 could also be planned. But D1 shows a really clear down trend, giving shorts a good chance to play out.
There were 2 SZ inside the D1 SZ. In those cases, my plan is to place 2 pending orders. If the first is taken out, the second will normally recover the loss.
So what went wrong?
- I forgot to place the second PO at the upper zone. This zone was quite wide, but if drilled down to the M5 I'd actually would identify a pretty good - almost to the pip - entry (see horizontal line) with a tight stop.
- I didn't account for the news --- this was FOMC day.!! (and the spike happened exactly at the time of the press conference). Trading S/D during news is possible, I've seen S/D levels work out pretty well and get you into a position early, but normally the zones which are farther away are the ones that get played out... costly mistake!



EURUSD
I don't really understand why I placed this order. Either it was price typing mistake or I was totally messed up in my brain
Seriously, as I recall it, I simply attempted to play not S/D zones but some sort of pure touch of a support/resistence rebound. I was afraid that the EU would fly without me, I guess. totally nonsense. This is a good example of how much "not sticking to your plan" and making "attempts" at new things with your tradng account will cost you big time !! Take it as seriously as any business, NO TRYING NEW UNTESTED THINGS!


It was actually painful to put this out in words, but it's necessary in order evolve and master the craft, so hopefully this will inspire others to also accept that failing is part of progressing into mastery. Not ashamed, the market is a reflection of yourself so you better look it really deep in the eye and find your flaws fast...

Thanks C-12 for allowing me to take up some of your web space as a sort of collective journal

Trade Updates --- usdchf stop hit -- gbp chf tp and usdcad running

I been away on holiday and just got back today. Missed the premium action last night on FOMC... There was a peach of an M30 zone right above a prior swing point.

Bagged a few scalps on LTF... I'm looking for this to run so let's leave these two positions and see if we can get some follow through.

The only issue I can see here is confidence, meaning stops too tight and take profits overly cautious. zones often get spiked by a few pips so i think having a 5-10 pip buffer is a good idea, especially when trading the crosses.

Maybe worth getting back on demo and let the trades breath without the emotional attachment of real cash. With SD and trend trading you should be able to pull off 3,4,5,6+ R/R trades quite regularly. If the winners are limited to 1/1 RR it is a tough slog.

C

were the entries on this one based off the engulfing on the 30min? I see the small pop-up on the 5min right after you got in. When you see price going against you like that, does it affect you at all anymore? Do you ever move stops closer at this point, or do you just leave them and if they get hit, then on to the next trade?

The M30 engulfing had created a supply so a bit of a retrace to the zone was nothing to worry about. I wasn't actually looking at M5 at the time and I was pretty confident this was breaking to the downside.

Sometimes if price is in a range I might tighten things up or kill some positions. This looked very clearly that it was making a break lower, notice the S/R was taken out and retested on the H4/H1 chart.

EU looks like we can now sell engulfing PA and any pullbacks to zones.

I greatly appreciate your evaluation. You are right. I'll go back to demo, save some capital and go back to using forex tester to practice even more.

or you can use 0.01 lot to keep things real but still have the adrenaline of money on steak.

that's a good point, but I do need more screen time and with a day job I can't get as much as I wanted to, so going back to the tester might bring me the practice time at a faster pace.

Here is Euro M30, with S/D H4 set up ... SELL rally if break the low till demand area ... SL above High of previous candle

Some zones and pullbacks. Should get another 60-100 pips out of this I think.

Weekly demand fairly close. After that, we'll see what PA unfolds.

Hi C,

I have a question towards the supply/demand levels in your chart.
Why is there no demand level at the red circle I drew?



Why did you hold towards the lower demand level?
Is it based on higher timeframe trend or higher timeframe supply demand levels?

Thanks

I use H4 zones, trend and PA as my directional reference chart (both D1 and H4 GMT and NY close candle charts)

Not a good idea to trade zones solely off a LTF chart. There's a lot of these zones ready to take money out of your account, especially counter trend.

That M30 PA (zone) was just price making a pullback within a downtrend.

Some today trades .. happy pips to all

Hi emicovi,....

UJ H4 TF and M30 ...

Are you planning for a short or long?
What's mean the yellow circles?