Swing Trading on Gold and FX

9/25/2018 session3 recap:
no trades for the day.

9/26/2018 session3:
Euro Pre-trading checklist:
1) News, depressing (Chequers unacceptable, second referendum, NAFTA talk, trade war escalation, FED rhetoric)
2) Economic data, neutral, (1000EST US new home sales)
3) Scoreboard, neutral
4) CandleBar, neutral
5) RedBox and RedCloud, supporting
6) SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min), N/A
7) Fibonacci and ABCD, depressing (38.2%)
8) .DXY, depressing

Decision points: 1), 8)
Conclusion: Short

Adaptive Strategy: Short after DXY confirmed

update 0708EST:
.DXY likely rebounded from down channel.
the drop of Euro is very slow and steady.

9/26/2018 session3 recap:
the price was down, and i took profit before it dropped further.

9/27/2018 session3 recap:
no deal fro the day, one of my crucial files crashed, so i took the whole day amending it.
still got the problem, will try to get it done this weekend.

9/28/2018 session3:
Euro Pre-trading checklist:
1) News, depressing (Italy budget 2.4%, low ECB rate expectation)
2) Economic data, neutral, (N/A)
3) Scoreboard, depressing
4) CandleBar, depressing
5) RedBox and RedCloud, depressing
6) SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min), depressing
7) Fibonacci and ABCD, N/A
8) .DXY, depressing

Decision points: 1), 3), 6)
Conclusion: Short

Adaptive Strategy:
Too late to short for now.
Short after pullback.

9/28/2018 session3 recap:
the session did not work well, as the later rebound was so strong.
i managed to get in the short in the end, barely made profit.

September was doing fairly good, 18 trading days, 14 were in profit, 1 break even, 3 losing days.

10/1/2018 session3:
no trade plan for the day.
will resume trading next day.

Euro chart with red box.
key resistant 38%, which i shorted last Friday.
today 38% worked again.

10/2/2018 session3:
Euro Pre-trading checklist:
1) News, depressing (Italy budget, trade war tension, NAFTA, PM May's talk)
2) Economic data, neutral, (0430EST UK constructions PMI, 1245EST Fed Chair speaks)
3) Scoreboard, depressing
4) CandleBar, depressing
5) RedBox and RedCloud, depressing
6) SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min), depressing
7) Fibonacci and ABCD, N/A
8) .DXY, depressing

Decision points: 1), 5), 6)
Conclusion: Short

Adaptive Strategy:
Late for short now.
Short after pullback.

10/2/2018 session3 recap:
managed to short after rebound.
one stop-loss, one win.
breakeven at close.

10/3/2018 session3:
Euro Pre-trading checklist:
1) News, neutral (Italy 2% in 2021, trade war tension)
2) Economic data, neutral, (0400EST EU services PMI, 0430EST UK services PMI, 0815 ADP employment, 1000EST US ISM PMI, 1600EST Fed Chair speaks)
3) Scoreboard, neutral
4) CandleBar, supporting
5) RedBox and RedCloud, depressing
6) SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min), N/A
7) Fibonacci and ABCD, N/A
8) .DXY, neutral

Decision point(s): 5)
Conclusion: Short

Adaptive Strategy: Short on/after data releasing


volume density is expected to rise.

10/3/2018 session3 recap:
closed all the positions, a good run today.

10/4/2018 session3:

Euro Pre-trading checklist:
1) News, depressing (Italy budget confliction, robust US economy, German lawmarker on brexit)
2) Economic data, neutral (0830EST unemployment claims, 0915EST FOMC member speaks)
3) Scoreboard, depressing
4) CandleBar, neutral (wide range move on both ways)
5) RedBox and RedCloud, depressing
6) SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min), depressing
7) Fibonacci and ABCD, depressing (61.8%)
8) .DXY highlight, depressing
9) Reuters view, depressing

Decision point(s): 3), 6), 7)
Conclusion: Short
Adaptive Strategy: Short after rebound


Follow up: (if any, for next session)
Decision point(s):
Conclusion:
Updated Strategy:

10/4/2018 session3 recap:
bad outcome as all three sets of trades stopped loss.

10/5/2018 session3:

Euro Pre-trading checklist:
1) News, neutral (Italy budget update, robust US economy indicators, T-Bond selloff)
2) Economic data, neutral (0830EST unemployment rate, NFP)
3) Scoreboard, neutral
4) CandleBar, supporting
5) RedBox and RedCloud, depressing
6) SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min), neutral
7) Fibonacci and ABCD, N/A
8) .DXY highlight, depressing
9) Reuters view, depressing

Decision point(s): 5), 8)
Conclusion: Short
Adaptive Strategy: Short after SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min) confirmed


update 0416EST:
very random move.

10/5/2018 session3 recap:

the Euro chart last Friday was designated to trick my system.
i stopped loss for three consecutive sets and it was another losing day.
and, i logged a losing week last week.

10/8/2018 session3:

Euro Pre-trading checklist:
1) News, neutral (SNP highlight, Italian budget, trade war Brexit progress)
2) Economic data, N/A
3) Scoreboard, neutral
4) CandleBar, neutral
5) RedBox and RedCloud, depressing
6) SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min), N/A
7) Fibonacci and ABCD, N/A
8) .DXY highlight, depressing
9) Reuters view, depressing

Decision point(s): 5), 8)
Conclusion: Short
Adaptive Strategy: Short

10/8/2018 session3 recap:
Euro weakened and i took profit before U.S. market opened.

Tue 10/9/2018 session3:

Euro Pre-trading checklist:
1) News, depressing (China rebukes US, Salvini attacks EU officials, Irish board deadlock)
2) Economic data, N/A
3) Scoreboard, neutral
4) CandleBar, neutral
5) RedBox and RedCloud, depressing
6) SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min), N/A
7) Fibonacci and ABCD, supporting (61.8%)
8) .DXY highlight, depressing
9) Reuters view, depressing

Decision point(s): 5), 7), 8)
Conclusion: Short
Adaptive Strategy: Short after rebound



as:
1) price is now at 61.8% range
2) trend change (no divergence zone) may happen today
will follow up the assessment later.
going to long is possible if there is good news.


Follow up:
Decision point(s):
Conclusion:
Updated Strategy: