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The Swamp

  • #24,501
  • Oct 2, 2018 4:54am Oct 2, 2018 4:54am
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} Went below my extreme level No Double Top
I'm not comfortable with fresh lower closes on the q month week and day... but 1516 <1516/1300> norm for 2165 is hit now, the last few years closed bullish.. I did long 1518
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #24,502
  • Oct 2, 2018 5:06am Oct 2, 2018 5:06am
cad may be close to bounce.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #24,503
  • Oct 2, 2018 5:06am Oct 2, 2018 5:06am
Quoting Boulder
Eur/Usd: Key Target Levels For 10/2/2018, Shorts/Support Levels: S1: 1.1555 S2:1.1538 S3: 1.1510 Longs/Resistance Levels: R1: 1.1589 R2:1.1606 R3: 1.1633 Currently @8pm est 1H Downtrend stop : 1.1616; 4H Downtrend stop : 1.1751 Daily Uptrend stop : 1.1542 Trading Strategy: Short
playing this one continues.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #24,504
  • Oct 2, 2018 5:19am Oct 2, 2018 5:19am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I'm not comfortable with fresh lower closes on the q month week and day... but 1516 <1516/1300> norm for 2165 is hit now, the last few years closed bullish.. I did long 1518
6 h 1517.8
12 h 1570.6
day 1583.7
week 1613.6
month 1595.6
q3 1595.6

I need 1517.8 1570 +1583.7 L close today + for my trade atm.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #24,505
  • Oct 2, 2018 5:28am Oct 2, 2018 5:28am
Eur/Usd: Daily Market Trends Update 10/2/2018

Eur/Usd On 10/2/2018 at 8am est.. Boulder Multi Time Frame System:

1H, Downtrend, Trend stop at 1H close 1.1604, Running Period: 73x1H
4H, Downtrend, Trend stop at 4H close 1.1699, Running Period: 14 x 4H
Daily, Uptrend, Trend stop at day close 1.1542, Running Period: 7 days.
Weekly, Downtrend, Trend stop at week close 1.1824,Running Period: 20week


( Note: Those stops will change with hour close and price action)

Trading Strategy:

Currently H1,H4 downtrend, and daily uptrend. Weekly downtrend. If you trade 1H trend, preference is to short as long as downtrend stop 1.1604 held at 1H close
However we are testing daily uptrend stop 1542, if it stays above at day close. Longs will be more favorable due to time stop.. so far 73 hours for this H1 downtrend.. highly possible with 70% chance , this H1 will reverse to uptrend within 24 hours
  • #24,506
  • Oct 2, 2018 5:31am Oct 2, 2018 5:31am
Quoting longshot_nl
cad may be close to bounce. {image}

thanks, I took a peak, hate that Canada, some interesting previous PA down there, surely a spot one can look....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADWeekly.png Size: 63 KB
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #24,507
  • Oct 2, 2018 5:38am Oct 2, 2018 5:38am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 6 h 1517.8 12 h 1570.6 day 1583.7 week 1613.6 month 1595.6 q3 1595.6 I need 1517.8 1570 +1583.7 L close today + for my trade atm.
baby steps.. the 3h closed above the previous 3h.. My long is still a crap shoot. The larger numbers pointing lower, using closes alone.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #24,508
  • Edited 6:01am Oct 2, 2018 5:43am | Edited 6:01am
Quoting BlueCirrus
I'm back!!....for a minute anyway....lol I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but it's still Double S - Double D (Same Sequence - Different Day) since early August.... Be aware that a 155.9 bull proj. has been hit (1.1803x - 1.1810x) and the norm/LM for this bull corrective sequence is 1.1464/1.14447, and I show a 225 bear into that level... It should be noted that this is a correction in a bear sequence and the ultimate target is 1.10267 norm/1.09457 LM as shown on the chart. Good luck...C-YA! {image}
Quoting BlueCirrus
{quote} {quote} Void 1.2054.... This has been an H4 corrective sequence on the road to 1.10267/1.09457, and, at this point, I think it has completed. This was an outside down week and now it's likely that no further upside beyond possibly 1732/41 norm/UM is going to occur before 1.1026/1.0945. The logic on the retracement after 1st target is the same on this weekly chart as it was on the H4 corrective sequence chart mentioned in the quoted post above. Here's a chart showing the bigger view, which I momentarily lost sight...
All still working pretty good...The question now is how it will react at the 15 month halfback/mid at 1.1447x. It did show some reaction at the UM of that mid at 1.1578x, so it is likely some play will occur there.

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 6 h 1517.8 12 h 1570.6 day 1583.7 week 1613.6 month 1595.6 q3 1595.6 I need 1517.8 1570 +1583.7 L close today + for my trade atm.
I have 1.1566x - 1571 as the very short term corrective upside target, which is near your 1570 area.
  • #24,509
  • Oct 2, 2018 5:46am Oct 2, 2018 5:46am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} playing this one continues.
yea,.. if it closes below 1542 today... we will see 1400s and 1300s without problem.,..because last night it had eaten through the daily demand zone 1600-1520 as I noted before in COT report.. next daily demand zone is 1350-1300 ...
  • #24,510
  • Oct 2, 2018 5:54am Oct 2, 2018 5:54am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} yea,.. if it closes below 1542 today... we will see 1400s and 1300s without problem.,..because last night it had eaten through the daily demand zone 1600-1520 as I noted before in COT report.. next daily demand zone is 1350-1300 ...
yep.. bearish,, reaching 1516 is where bulls had lurked for 2165.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #24,511
  • Oct 2, 2018 6:07am Oct 2, 2018 6:07am
Quoting longshot_nl
cad may be close to bounce. {image}
do u see a valid bullish crab on the 4h? if so, crabs are often fast movers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 41 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #24,512
  • Oct 2, 2018 6:08am Oct 2, 2018 6:08am
Quoting JustAndy
Short at 1.1692 Will keep adding up to 1.1755 Targeting 1.1515
Finally...after getting stopped 3 times...
Why sell the bottoms when you can buy the tops...
  • #24,513
  • Oct 2, 2018 6:13am Oct 2, 2018 6:13am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} your crabs are often fast movers.
that's what she said...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #24,514
  • Oct 2, 2018 6:16am Oct 2, 2018 6:16am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} that's what she said...
by the bushel or bushfull?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #24,515
  • Oct 2, 2018 6:27am Oct 2, 2018 6:27am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} do u see a valid bullish crab on the 4h? if so, crabs are often fast movers. {image}
no but i do see this gartley.
the abcd pattern not very symmetrical but could work.
gartley fib level at 1.2710

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD.....Daily.png Size: 32 KB
  • #24,516
  • Oct 2, 2018 6:30am Oct 2, 2018 6:30am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} no but i do see this gartley. the abcd pattern not very symmetrical but could work. gartley fib level at 1.2710 {image}
sorry, i was talking about eu
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #24,517
  • Oct 2, 2018 6:32am Oct 2, 2018 6:32am
The bigger picture using the Correct swings....................

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The corrective H4 sequence using the correct swing..........

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The corrective H4 using the incorrect swing..........

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Somehow, I feel like I'm just wasting my damn time. Later.
  • #24,518
  • Oct 2, 2018 6:37am Oct 2, 2018 6:37am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} yea,.. if it closes below 1542 today... we will see 1400s and 1300s without problem.,..because last night it had eaten through the daily demand zone 1600-1520 as I noted before in COT report.. next daily demand zone is 1350-1300 ...
i agree, no zone @ cypher level. but there is a trendlne.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #24,519
  • Oct 2, 2018 6:46am Oct 2, 2018 6:46am
chart 4h window.. 1483/1509 ish.

larger 2069 window at 1516/1300/ The closes 6h and above are still bearish,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #24,520
  • Oct 2, 2018 6:51am Oct 2, 2018 6:51am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} sorry, i was talking about eu
don't see a crab. only the cypher. butterfly @ 1.2 got invalidated.
buying 1410 targeting 2150 or 2075 or 1927
from 2555 to 1.13 was a 5 wave move. i think big retracement is in order.
what we have seen upto 1815 does not seem enough to me.
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