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vsa with Malcolm

  • #31,941
  • Sep 24, 2018 6:28pm Sep 24, 2018 6:28pm
GBPUSD today we travelled from the L to the H of Friday's 1-hour UHV zone. We even had a little R turn S at the hinge level. Supply found at the H. Today's 1-hour zone printed with it's hinge right at the Friday zone H. If that shared level isn't taken out then we could see another day inside the Friday zone with a possibe short from the lower half of today's zone. 3138 to 3152ish...

Another option is a long if we take out the H of today's zone and come back down to test into the upper half from 3166 to 3152.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #31,942
  • Sep 24, 2018 7:04pm Sep 24, 2018 7:04pm
Quoting Skyllo
Hi all, I wanna ask about no demand. I little confuse about this signal, especially 'no demand in up trend'. In Trading with the Shadow Smart Money, galvin divides no demand in three type (in up trend, market top, and down trend). In up trend, no demand doesnt works. The problem is that i have difficulty understanding the context of 'no demand in up trend'. Below is a GBPUSD chart image some time ago, there are two kinds of no demand, the first doesnt work, and the second works. Are not both in up trend? Why the first one doesnt work (Yes there...

to add to what others said your first nd comes in after 2 HV down bars. Look about 12-13 bars back. Looks like buyers stepping back in around the middle of that hv up bar from a day or two ago.
  • #31,943
  • Sep 27, 2018 7:13am Sep 27, 2018 7:13am
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  • #31,944
  • Sep 28, 2018 7:57am Sep 28, 2018 7:57am
Quoting Skyllo
Hi all, I wanna ask about no demand. I little confuse about this signal, especially 'no demand in up trend'. In Trading with the Shadow Smart Money, galvin divides no demand in three type (in up trend, market top, and down trend). In up trend, no demand doesnt works. The problem is that i have difficulty understanding the context of 'no demand in up trend'. Below is a GBPUSD chart image some time ago, there are two kinds of no demand, the first doesnt work, and the second works. Are not both in up trend? Why the first one doesnt work (Yes there...

it looks to me like you should trade your trend channels and forget no demand.
  • #31,945
  • Oct 1, 2018 1:22am Oct 1, 2018 1:22am
Quoting LuckyMind
{image}

hmm going long on a lower low, not bad if you trade/scalp swings

problem with countertrend trading gambling is it always involves high risk but seldom highly rewarding

I mean what's the point? there was a highly profitable short trade there in complete harmony (less risky) with the trend, only if you'd waited
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #31,946
  • Oct 1, 2018 3:54am Oct 1, 2018 3:54am
Quoting Vcv13
{quote} hmm going long on a lower low, not bad if you trade/scalp swings problem with countertrend trading gambling is it always involves high risk but seldom highly rewarding I mean what's the point? there was a highly profitable short trade there in complete harmony (less risky) with the trend, only if you'd waited
It's actually because i am bad at trading and hove no idea where is "harmony" entry or where price will go. Will trend continue, or will it revers - i don't know. So all I can do in that case - trade what I see. Price showed me UHV right at Demand, and then low volume down bar at the high of that UHV - I guees it's enough for me to go for a trade
  • #31,947
  • Oct 1, 2018 10:26am Oct 1, 2018 10:26am
Quoting LuckyMind
{quote} It's actually because i am bad at trading and hove no idea where is "harmony" entry or where price will go. Will trend continue, or will it revers - i don't know. So all I can do in that case - trade what I see. Price showed me UHV right at Demand, and then low volume down bar at the high of that UHV - I guees it's enough for me to go for a trade
vsa is based on three laws, and one of them is the law of cause and effect ... if the trend is down what you would like to see in order to go long is the accumulation process, accumulation is not one bar it takes time to build "energy" for a 100 pip run (ur take profit), take a look at euro for example, we were in a range between the days 20 and 26 of September and only after that the price began to fall...

you are confusing the accumulation process with supporting volume, the bar that you marked as number 1 is supporting volume which is some buying thats true but just enough to support price and keep it from dropping like a brick, thats the key point.. also watch the higher timeframes they are easier to trade IMHO
  • #31,948
  • Oct 1, 2018 1:43pm Oct 1, 2018 1:43pm
Quoting odines
{quote} vsa is based on three laws, and one of them is the law of cause and effect ... if the trend is down what you would like to see in order to go long is the accumulation process, accumulation is not one bar it takes time to build "energy" for a 100 pip run (ur take profit), take a look at euro for example, we were in a range between the days 20 and 26 of September and only after that the price began to fall... you are confusing the accumulation process with supporting volume, the bar that you marked as number 1 is supporting volume which is...
Quote
accumulation process
- I would say it rather for long term trading
  • #31,949
  • Edited 11:12am Oct 3, 2018 11:02am | Edited 11:12am
Quoting LuckyMind
{quote} {quote} - I would say it rather for long term trading
if you read wyckoff or vsa books you would notice the importance that they giv to the trend, personally I think the correct word must be "market phase" - thats what vsa is all about.

One of the main reasons that people lose money when trading vsa is trading against the trend, vsa is a complet trend methodology in my view, learning vsa and trying to trade against the trend is the same thing as learning basketball and trying to play soccer. Personally I take reversal trades only after accumulation or distribution process like I said

Gavin noticed that many users were trying to pick top and bottoms thats why he introduced some rules like trigger numbers and diamond ma colors, he tried to cover this subject on his book take a look at picture below, he doesnt even consider a stopping action a SOS in a down trend for example, in a down trend the springs/shake outs ill appear to support the market a little bit like I said or due to short covering (neither of them is considered a SOS), thats why you should trade the trend until a true reversal process come in. I only started to understand vsa after I read some wyckoff stuff, if you still having trouble with vsa I would sugest you to do the same
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  • #31,950
  • Oct 5, 2018 11:32am Oct 5, 2018 11:32am
Quoting odines
{quote} if you read wyckoff or vsa books you would notice the importance that they giv to the trend, personally I think the correct word must be "market phase" - thats what vsa is all about. One of the main reasons that people lose money when trading vsa is trading against the trend, vsa is a complet trend methodology in my view, learning vsa and trying to trade against the trend is the same thing as learning basketball and trying to play soccer. Personally I take reversal trades only after accumulation or distribution process like I said Gavin...
Agree with a large amount of your post.
Sebastian from TG used a 21 ema on his charts for trend alignment (This i going way back to the early days of TG). Something that simple has left me out of many a losing trade.
Still using the 21 ema on my charts today. 10 years strong!
  • #31,951
  • Oct 5, 2018 11:35am Oct 5, 2018 11:35am
Hi guys,

My NFP Trading position for today (EU) .... well it is friday and actually i dont like to let open position over weekend (but this trade I will let it open maybe ... lets see) ...

I open this trade after NFP news came out and waiting the opportunity to look for a weakness selling bar .... the target is 1.1584 ...

i could be wrong ....
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  • #31,952
  • Oct 11, 2018 2:18am Oct 11, 2018 2:18am
Quoting Skyllo
Hi all, I wanna ask about no demand. I little confuse about this signal, especially 'no demand in up trend'. In Trading with the Shadow Smart Money, galvin divides no demand in three type (in up trend, market top, and down trend). In up trend, no demand doesnt works. The problem is that i have difficulty understanding the context of 'no demand in up trend'. Below is a GBPUSD chart image some time ago, there are two kinds of no demand, the first doesnt work, and the second works. Are not both in up trend? Why the first one doesnt work (Yes there...
Imho both didnt work. I remember from the Tom Williams work, maybe it was in his London Symposium that to have a No Demand as a signal for a trade you should have a weakness in the background - in your both ND's it is not the case, so both are not tradable. These are not signals for a trade.

These are not No Demands in a strict sense of VSA, where you want to have a signal for a trade. Those are bars showing us that demand is weaker but nothing else, no trade whatsoever, even if in your chart it "worked". Ocassionaly it may, but in principle it will not.

Summing this up: to have a tradable No Demand you should have a clear weakness in the background. For example - buying climax, UHV upthrust, supply coming in.

But you have strength, and what is more - confirmed strength - absorbtion volume confirmed by low volume down bars, you have higher highs and higher lows - all this means that you are in an uptrend.

This leads us to the second part of the answer, a very important one: look at my chart, by yellow arrows I pointed there No Demands in temporary "downtrends". Look, these lead to modest weak down moves. WIth a little luck you would get a little profit. Or not.

To trade successfully you need more than that. So this situation lacks something very important to lead you to successful trades.

What is wrong with this chart and this situation then? Try tro find an answer to this question and you will be on the way to successful trading.
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  • #31,953
  • Oct 12, 2018 12:15am Oct 12, 2018 12:15am
Quoting Fred-IV
{quote} Imho both didnt work. I remember from the Tom Williams work, maybe it was in his London Symposium that to have a No Demand as a signal for a trade you should have a weakness in the background - in your both ND's it is not the case, so both are not tradable. These are not signals for a trade. These are not No Demands in a strict sense of VSA, where you want to have a signal for a trade. Those are bars showing us that demand is weaker but nothing else, no trade whatsoever, even if in your chart it "worked". Ocassionaly it may, but in principle...
What is it?
  • #31,954
  • Oct 12, 2018 3:49am Oct 12, 2018 3:49am
Hi All

I understand this has probably been repeated many times.

But where do I start learning about VSA - from the basics ? Any particular link?

Thanks in Advance!
  • #31,955
  • Oct 15, 2018 9:27am Oct 15, 2018 9:27am
Hey guys I am currently studying Tom Williams masterpiece, Master the markets, would love to hear your opinion on this bar chart of the ozzy dollar, if you check out this chart I believe the arrow to be pointing out an example of high volume demand? I wonder if it is demand, would there be huge demand up there on a downbar, right at the top of the market? I must admit I am a bit confused on this reading...

Edit: I forget to mention I was reading it looks like it could be considered a high volume squat bar?

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  • #31,956
  • Oct 15, 2018 10:40pm Oct 15, 2018 10:40pm
Quoting tradeharder
Hi All I understand this has probably been repeated many times. But where do I start learning about VSA - from the basics ? Any particular link? Thanks in Advance!
Master the markets. Tom Williams
Trading in the shadow of smart money. Gavin Holmes
  • #31,957
  • Oct 16, 2018 11:03am Oct 16, 2018 11:03am
Quoting JennyMK
Hey guys I am currently studying Tom Williams masterpiece, Master the markets, would love to hear your opinion on this bar chart of the ozzy dollar, if you check out this chart I believe the arrow to be pointing out an example of high volume demand? I wonder if it is demand, would there be huge demand up there on a downbar, right at the top of the market? I must admit I am a bit confused on this reading... Edit: I forget to mention I was reading it looks like it could be considered a high volume squat bar? {image}
Thats all about effort vs result.. if we have a down bar on UHV but the spread is narrow what happened? Sellers were trying to push the price down but buyers came in to stop the down movement, so we can assume that buyers are present because they are supporting the market to move down further... however thats not necessarly a buying entry signal

The key point is that you have to understand these signals along with the trend and background.. if you simple pick these signals to entry a trade ur just trading a gourmet version of japanese candlestick patterns lol ur not trading vsa because thats not what vsa is all about...
  • #31,958
  • Oct 16, 2018 11:38am Oct 16, 2018 11:38am
Quoting jamess5253
{quote} What is it?
Look at the chart agn. If we assume that these (mine) are ND you will get there a couple of pips only. Maybe 5-10, but I suspect all might end as SL as well.

To have more, 20-40 pips from each you should find the same ND but in a downtrend.

Here you have a clear uptrend - moves after ND are small and slow, so change this and find a well established downtrend and sell all ND there.

If you will not have success with this approach - find a downtrend on even higher TF - so you will now have a challenge to wait for a downtrend in a downtrend - and then sell ND.

To give na example - find a downtrend in H1, then find a downtrend on M15 - then go to M5 and sell ND's in temporary small uptrends that occur.

Here you can find a lot of great examples of this approach - 3 TF analysis: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=600743
  • #31,959
  • Edited Oct 17, 2018 2:15am Oct 16, 2018 12:06pm | Edited Oct 17, 2018 2:15am
Quoting JennyMK
Hey guys I am currently studying Tom Williams masterpiece, Master the markets, would love to hear your opinion on this bar chart of the ozzy dollar, if you check out this chart I believe the arrow to be pointing out an example of high volume demand? I wonder if it is demand, would there be huge demand up there on a downbar, right at the top of the market? I must admit I am a bit confused on this reading... Edit: I forget to mention I was reading it looks like it could be considered a high volume squat bar? {image}
Technically on this TF it is a sign of strong buying to me. Medium spread, UHV volume, then we have a test and a move up.

Let us assume that we took that test (I will explain in a moment why this might be a bad idea). Probably we will get a BE or a loss from it. There is a two bar reversal with a second bar HV, but with that type of strength present at your bar I believe position should be still at the market. However then we have an attempt to rise again and a volume decreases... This may mean danger, as a temporary high on the left should be taken on strong bullish volume, not vanishing. Something is not right here, this is not a bullish behaviour, it might be a signal to exit as market doesnt behave as we expect him to do.

So why I think this might be a bad idea to take this long?

You forgot to analyze higher TF, looking left I see rather HV/UHV SCI (supply coming in) on H4 and then as the price approaches temporary top - the supply is lower. This is not bullish. This is bearish bahaviour after a SCI. It means that we would try to buy close to temporary top at vanishing supply with a powerful SCI in the background.

Risky, at last.

But there is a way you can still trade that.

If I must (although it is a relly bad idea with a powerful supply coming in in the background) I would go to lower TF after that bar- maybe M15 and analyse situation there, Maybe even to M5 - at these TF there might be something tradable, and I assume that after such a powerful signal of buying there will be a some move up - but tradable only on lower TF, where this signal will create powerful strength in the background, so I would wait there for a no supply or a test.
After that, higher we would have a powerful reversal sign, powerful enough to exit a trade.

There I suppose is strength in the background and it would be a more or less "good VSA trade".

However from the H4 perspective (I have no charts to see now) this UHV down bar might be a part of a powerful UHV Upthrust after a long up move with weakness - UHV SCI in the background. That would change the picture a bit... If you add a H4 to this analysis you may have an attempt to buy after powerful SCI at the background followed by decreasing volume and a powerful Upthrust at the top.

From this perspective trying to go long here means we are pretty much fu...d, our long might give us a small win, but as in previous case I analyzed, we are buing against very serious weakness which will give us a couple of pips at best, when selling with the same weakness at the proper place can give us 3-5 times more.
  • #31,960
  • Oct 16, 2018 12:39pm Oct 16, 2018 12:39pm
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