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8 Years Later - Still Not Winning

  • #421
  • Sep 26, 2018 2:42am Sep 26, 2018 2:42am
What I mean is "FIND OUT YOUR ONE THING"...

Quoting ppentz
I agree simple is nearly always better than complex, but but to say there is just "one thing" is over simplification. Learning to trade is a process, and a process involves more than just one thing.
  • #422
  • Sep 26, 2018 2:56am Sep 26, 2018 2:56am
Quoting squidster85
1. I started trading in 2002-2003. 2. I didn't know what I was doing until 10 years had passed. 3. From 2002-2013 I have tried every single method/strategy/indicator which I could get my hands on. But nothing made me money. 4. In 2007 I had a bit of luck and turned 3K into 10K USD when Gold was trading really well. But when Gold collapsed I lost it all. 5. If you are coming on this forum to learn then its fine. But keep your head clear and eyes open. 6. If you are coming on this forum so you can use someone's strategy and make money then you will...
Hi squidster85
Your experience is not too dissimilar to my own, I started in 2001 trading the Dax two months before 9-11 and I too made a significant amount only to loose two thirds of it a year later. I made so many mistakes too many to list here! And you're dead right you have to find your own style, as there's so many little nuances that other traders don't mention that make all the difference.
I think my advice to newbies is: learn to accept losses as there'll be many, trade with the trend, let your winners run as far as you can, cut your losses short, and don't concentrate on your entry as it's the least important part of any trade. Do all that and you'll be fine.............
  • #423
  • Sep 26, 2018 3:01am Sep 26, 2018 3:01am
Quoting mades
{quote} Your position sizing makes 25 pip 2 to 4% of your equity? You do 25 pip also on GJ? You have 80% success rate? 25pip SL is pure scalping and 80% success rate when scalping is close to unbelievable. Risking 4% on every scalp is even more unbelievable (and definitely road to margin call). Somehow I'm starting to doubt your claims. Especially when you trade only 1 year. Being in the industry and trading your own money is a huge difference. Also risking 2-4% per trade you would never do if you were in the industry for 20 years anywhere near...
I do agree with that mades, 2 to 4% is pretty high, I trade 0.5% but remember everyone's risk tolerance is very different
  • #424
  • Sep 26, 2018 3:18am Sep 26, 2018 3:18am
Quoting mades
{quote} Your position sizing makes 25 pip 2 to 4% of your equity? You do 25 pip also on GJ? You have 80% success rate? 25pip SL is pure scalping and 80% success rate when scalping is close to unbelievable. Risking 4% on every scalp is even more unbelievable (and definitely road to margin call). Somehow I'm starting to doubt your claims. Especially when you trade only 1 year. Being in the industry and trading your own money is a huge difference. Also risking 2-4% per trade you would never do if you were in the industry for 20 years anywhere near...
scalping is a strategy where the trader takes a few pips across dozens of trades every day. I don't trade every day and i wouldn't call targets of of 30+ pips in general as a scalping strategy. if these stats are unbelievable to you that is because the pitfalls of TA makes it very hard to break 70% win rate unless your strategy is to hold without stops until the market moves in your favour. why wouldn't i risk more if i have a higher success rate? why is is so difficult to believe that someone doesn't need to spend years learning to trade. Is it because TA is so unreliable that you can't relate to this outcome? I am happy to show my account if you just asked but instead you chose to come on here and assume everything i am saying is bullshit. Is that because you most likely can't replicate it and find it unthinkable that someone can be better than you without having slogged years of failure?

by the way its sceptical not skeptical
  • #425
  • Edited 5:56am Sep 26, 2018 5:25am | Edited 5:56am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} by the way its sceptical not skeptical
It's both: https://www.dictionary.com/browse/skeptical

I'd like to see that 80% success rate, you can remove the position size and other personal stuff and show us your entries, takeprofits and stoplosses so I can doublecheck that against the charts. P.S. any sample less than 500 trades and RRR less than 1 is not worth checking.

Why is it so hard to believe that someone doesn't need to spend years? There are dozens and dozens of reports from traders way more experienced and successful than you (or me) and everyone says the same. You can't speed up this game, it is not about system but patience & discipline, emotional endurance, proper MM (which 4% risk per 25 pip trade IS NOT) and you can build those only over time. Pro traders don't reach 80%. My own experience says exactly the same.

I haven't said a thing about TA so I have no idea why you keep bringing that up. I understand you are strictly a fundamental trader based on your post history. That would also explain why you don't trade every day. But I haven't heard of a fundie trader using 25SL so I'm damn curious.

Scalping on FX in a way you described ("taking few pips across dozens of trades") just doesn't work because of costs associated with trading FX (compared to other markets). Every experienced trader would tell you that.
  • #426
  • Sep 26, 2018 5:44am Sep 26, 2018 5:44am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} 25 pips is the worst case scenario. Very rarely does it ever get hit I am mostly getting out for either a few pips profit or loss most of the time. I do the occasional swing trade using a catalyst to get me in and these have a 40 pip stop. If you are on the right side of the news within a minute approximately, you tend to have a 10 to 15 pip buffer as a result of the high level of interest going on. Sometimes I am out of the trade for 30 pips within a few mins. It all depends in a number of factors. Seems to be working well and I am getting...

Thanks for your answer, great for you then, wish you all the best.

Cheers,
Loïc
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #427
  • Sep 26, 2018 5:48am Sep 26, 2018 5:48am
Quoting rover99x
{quote} Hi squidster85 Your experience is not too dissimilar to my own, I started in 2001 trading the Dax two months before 9-11 and I too made a significant amount only to loose two thirds of it a year later. I made so many mistakes too many to list here! And you're dead right you have to find your own style, as there's so many little nuances that other traders don't mention that make all the difference. I think my advice to newbies is: learn to accept losses as there'll be many, trade with the trend, let your winners run as far as you can, cut...

I do agree too, winners must always be bigger as losses and a long strike of losses is inevitable in the long term, also yes some little nuances make all the difference.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #428
  • Edited 6:19am Sep 26, 2018 5:51am | Edited 6:19am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} scalping is a strategy where the trader takes a few pips across dozens of trades every day. I don't trade every day and i wouldn't call targets of of 30+ pips in general as a scalping strategy. if these stats are unbelievable to you that is because the pitfalls of TA makes it very hard to break 70% win rate unless your strategy is to hold without stops until the market moves in your favour. why wouldn't i risk more if i have a higher success rate? why is is so difficult to believe that someone doesn't need to spend years learning to trade....
Now that you offer to show your stats, I am asking to see it as I am curious, you can not blame him to say that because indeed 80% win rate is more than excellent.

But about TA, you that has not learned it and do not trade it, how would you know if it is unreliable?
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #429
  • Edited 6:18am Sep 26, 2018 5:57am | Edited 6:18am
Quoting rover99x
{quote} I do agree with that mades, 2 to 4% is pretty high, I trade 0.5% but remember everyone's risk tolerance is very different

It is not only about risk tolerance but drawdown, a higher drawdown means higher performance needed just to breakeven, some strategies that works might not, if risking too much.

Anyway yes, 4% is way to much, I do risk 1% with a trailing stop.

Money management is very important in trading, a big strike of losses is inevitable, even with a good winning rate because the distribution is random.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #430
  • Sep 26, 2018 5:59am Sep 26, 2018 5:59am
let's see a trade explorer or myfxbook.
  • #431
  • Sep 26, 2018 8:15am Sep 26, 2018 8:15am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} scalping is a strategy where the trader takes a few pips across dozens of trades every day. I don't trade every day and i wouldn't call targets of of 30+ pips in general as a scalping strategy. if these stats are unbelievable to you that is because the pitfalls of TA makes it very hard to break 70% win rate unless your strategy is to hold without stops until the market moves in your favour. why wouldn't i risk more if i have a higher success rate? why is is so difficult to believe that someone doesn't need to spend years learning to trade....
Hi EcoTrader

I do admire you for laying out your strategy on here but come on, you must've realised that saying you produce results of an 80% success rate when even the very best hedge funds get nowhere near that would produce the reaction that it has.

I get results of around 30 to 35% win rate with no use of TA as I've laid out before, and over time I come away with a nice profit. With 80% you're going to be way up there with the elite, so you can see why people are sceptical/skeptical
  • #432
  • Sep 26, 2018 9:05am Sep 26, 2018 9:05am
Quoting rover99x
{quote} Hi EcoTrader I do admire you for laying out your strategy on here but come on, you must've realised that saying you produce results of an 80% success rate when even the very best hedge funds get nowhere near that would produce the reaction that it has. I get results of around 30 to 35% win rate with no use of TA as I've laid out before, and over time I come away with a nice profit. With 80% you're going to be way up there with the elite, so you can see why people are sceptical/skeptical
Another commen misconception... trading on a 100k account is a little different than trading on a 100 m account mainly with regards to liquidity constraints..

so making comparisons is apples and pares

But in probability speak, someone spouting that kind of a return/ win rate in public I’d bet on the fallacy of the claim, still, completely possible

Inserted Video
Time hides Nothing
  • #433
  • Sep 26, 2018 10:50am Sep 26, 2018 10:50am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} Another commen misconception... trading on a 100k account is a little different than trading on a 100 m account mainly with regards to liquidity constraints.. so making comparisons is apples and pares But in probability speak, someone spouting that kind of a return/ win rate in public I’d bet on the fallacy of the claim, still, completely possible https://youtu.be/Kb6OYVdPC84
Sorry CindyXXXX but where's 100k come from?
  • #434
  • Sep 26, 2018 11:02am Sep 26, 2018 11:02am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} Another commen misconception... trading on a 100k account is a little different than trading on a 100 m account mainly with regards to liquidity constraints.. so making comparisons is apples and pares But in probability speak, someone spouting that kind of a return/ win rate in public I’d bet on the fallacy of the claim, still, completely possible https://youtu.be/Kb6OYVdPC84

Well, everything is possible :-) but probable ?

He said he is gonna show us his account if asked, I asked, so let’s wait.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #435
  • Sep 26, 2018 11:05am Sep 26, 2018 11:05am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} scalping is a strategy where the trader takes a few pips across dozens of trades every day. I don't trade every day and i wouldn't call targets of of 30+ pips in general as a scalping strategy. if these stats are unbelievable to you that is because the pitfalls of TA makes it very hard to break 70% win rate unless your strategy is to hold without stops until the market moves in your favour. why wouldn't i risk more if i have a higher success rate? why is is so difficult to believe that someone doesn't need to spend years learning to trade....
Nope, scalping is a trader that takes profit when available, intraday or not.

Well you are right, high win rates usually means holding on your losses...

The reason why you should not risk that much is because whatever your hedge and your win rate, the distribution is randomness, even if your hit rate is 80%, nothing protects you against a 20 loss strike, do the math with 4% loss...

Haven’t you learned that in your 20 years experience?
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #436
  • Sep 26, 2018 11:45am Sep 26, 2018 11:45am
Going back a bit where I was talking about FX being random with levy flight.
Here's a chart that may set you thinking, it's a randomly generated chart. Notice the, sometimes, quite long trends?
Looks a bit like a Forex chart?


http://randomfx.net/randomchart.html
  • #437
  • Sep 26, 2018 11:46am Sep 26, 2018 11:46am
Quoting LDFX
{quote} Nope, scalping is a trader that takes profit when available, intraday or not. Well you are right, high win rates usually means holding on your losses... The reason why you should not risk that much is because whatever your hedge and your win rate, the distribution is randomness, even if your hit rate is 80%, nothing protects you against a 20 loss strike, do the math with 4% loss... Haven’t you learned that in your 20 years experience?
why would anyone seriously into trading want to risk 4% a trade?
scalper or not.
anyone with at least a decent 5-6 digit acct would be happy enough with 4% a month probably....
divide that up for the 20 days, and maybe 5-10 entries a day, and you may come up some size where 20 trades loss strike wont scratch much your equity.
just saying.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #438
  • Sep 26, 2018 12:18pm Sep 26, 2018 12:18pm
Quoting LDFX
{quote} Nope, scalping is a trader that takes profit when available, intraday or not. Well you are right, high win rates usually means holding on your losses... The reason why you should not risk that much is because whatever your hedge and your win rate, the distribution is randomness, even if your hit rate is 80%, nothing protects you against a 20 loss strike, do the math with 4% loss... Haven’t you learned that in your 20 years experience?
You know I have been nothing but respectful in my responses and to come back to me with this sort of bullshit really makes me want to forget about these sort of mobster forums full of wannabe traders who think they know everything and can't related to someone doing okay and need to whip out their manhood for a slinging contest . Maybe I wasn't clear when I said I am not interested in arguing but to throw a comment out calling my 20 years in the industry into question is by all accounts a provocative remark.

Well done (clap clap clap) for highlighting that 20x4 results in a broken account. That must have taken you hours to figure out that golden nugget. Do you really think the randomness distribution applies to my method of trading, what exactly have you learned in 6 years trading besides candle sticks, Xmas lights, and squiggly lines? You see it's the complete lack of understanding on the application of fundamentals that discombobulates you chart gurus. You view things from a technical perspective chucking out bullshit 500 trade thresholds because that's what is needed to prove out a technical system in varying market conditions. It doesn't apply to me and by all accounts, a trader that is able to pull out over 10 percent consistently very month over a 12 month period is not just a lucky streak.

Random distribution is applicable to probability and I don't trade probability so your 20 loss strike is meaningless. It is a clear indication of the complete lack of understanding of trading this market with focus on drivers instead of Xmas lights and hindsight.

I am sorry you all can't relate to an 80 percent win rate and I was being open and friendly about how I do things only to be treated like an idiot. If you can't be arsed to ask questions in a manner that you'd appreciate if it were dealt to you then get lost.
  • #439
  • Edited 2:32pm Sep 26, 2018 1:54pm | Edited 2:32pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} You know I have been nothing but respectful in my responses and to come back to me with this sort of bullshit really makes me want to forget about these sort of mobster forums full of wannabe traders who think they know everything and can't related to someone doing okay and need to whip out their manhood for a slinging contest . Maybe I wasn't clear when I said I am not interested in arguing but to throw a comment out calling my 20 years in the industry into question is by all accounts a provocative remark. Well done (clap clap clap) for...
Come on, show us the trades! 100 is enough

And by the way, I'm sure you know about the little book called "Trading in the Zone". The random distribution of results is the very basic concept of the book. All trades are just educated guesses with certain level of probability, unless you have insider info. Do you?

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. We've seen many guys here on FF over the years claiming similar results only to vanish after asking the proof.
  • #440
  • Sep 26, 2018 3:11pm Sep 26, 2018 3:11pm
Quoting mades
{quote} Come on, show us the trades! 100 is enough And by the way, I'm sure you know about the little book called "Trading in the Zone". The random distribution of results is the very basic concept of the book. All trades are just educated guesses with certain level of probability, unless you have insider info. Claiming "you don't trade probability" says 2 possible outcomes: A) you are an insider B) you are full of crap. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. We've seen many guys here on FF over the years claiming similar results only...
The same guy that said this

"Fundamental analysis creates what I call a “reality gap” between “what should be” and “what is.” The reality gap makes it extremely difficult to make anything but very long-term predictions that can be difficult to exploit, even if they are correct."

Even the guy who wrote psychology books that are widely believed to be among the best, didn't understand short term fundamental trading. But here you are quoting him along with this random distribution nonsense as though its applicable to me. What part of me not trading probabilities don't you understand.

Here is a breakdown in layman's terms.

The market gets new information that alters participants expectations of policy in the short term. This gap between were the market thought it was and where it should be is the opportunity I take advantage of. I am not placing a trade hoping the market will move in my favour, I place trades during a repricing event based on new information. It's not probability it's something tangible and repeatable.

If now you want to talk about technical setups then yes throw Mark Douglas around like a Bangkok Hooker, discus probability and loosing streaks along with sample sizes. None of this applies to me. I have just closed out 1.2 percent in less than 30 minutes putting me at just under 15 percent for the month. Its been like this every month for the last year so don't come here and throw pointless arguments at me. You don't understand how I trade and the books you read and the methods you use are all in the same area of trading that doesn't apply to me. Deal with it and move on.
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