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8 Years Later - Still Not Winning

  • #401
  • Sep 25, 2018 3:44pm Sep 25, 2018 3:44pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Stops I initially set at 25 pips and move to break even as soon as possible where I leave it until I close the position. Targets are based on the scope of the opportunity and tied into the average daily range. By scope of opportunity I mean each trade has a catalyst and the important of that catalyst in terms of central bank influencing data or political uncertainty. The bigger the opportunity the more likely I ride out the trade either to the end of the session or into the next session. I also monitor price action and do close trades if...

Well it is like I said a very subjective attitude, mechanical way suits me more, good for you it works, I like the 20 minutes filter though.

25 pips on which pairs ? how much risk in % ?
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #402
  • Sep 25, 2018 4:30pm Sep 25, 2018 4:30pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} This is a common assumption but it really doesn't hold true. The Forex market is driven by fundamental factors and not technical analysis. You only have to look at the news catalysts for price moves to see that this holds true. Furthermore, having worked for the last 20 years at investment banks and hedge funds in very close proximity to traders and trading related data, I only ever observed them applying fundamentals to derive trades, financial models to report on risk, and price testing models based on formulas of which the components...
A well thought out post Eco, thank you for giving an insight to how you trade.

I do have one question, do you use volume in your trading? Now I know volume's difficult in FX but I do have a trading buddie that uses Futures volume and I just wondered if you look at it at all?
  • #403
  • Sep 25, 2018 4:39pm Sep 25, 2018 4:39pm
Quoting rover99x
{quote} A well thought out post Eco, thank you for giving an insight to how you trade. I do have one question, do you use volume in your trading? Now I know volume's difficult in FX but I do have a trading buddie that uses Futures volume and I just wondered if you look at it at all?
Interesting question, could you tell more about it Rover99x ? Is it an indicator or which chart/broker does he use ?
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #404
  • Sep 25, 2018 4:47pm Sep 25, 2018 4:47pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Stops I initially set at 25 pips and move to break even as soon as possible where I leave it until I close the position. Targets are based on the scope of the opportunity and tied into the average daily range. By scope of opportunity I mean each trade has a catalyst and the important of that catalyst in terms of central bank influencing data or political uncertainty. The bigger the opportunity the more likely I ride out the trade either to the end of the session or into the next session. I also monitor price action and do close trades if...
How are you gonna trade the FOMC tomorrow for example ? Just buy usd if positive and sell if negative ? With a 25 pips stop loss ? If yes how do you manage the huge spread/volatility even if you are right? Is really 25 pips enough ? What time frame are you looking?
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #405
  • Sep 25, 2018 5:03pm Sep 25, 2018 5:03pm
Quoting rover99x
{quote} A well thought out post Eco, thank you for giving an insight to how you trade. I do have one question, do you use volume in your trading? Now I know volume's difficult in FX but I do have a trading buddie that uses Futures volume and I just wondered if you look at it at all?
Hi

I wouldn't find it useful since I only look at charts when managing a trade and in that context, I am watching time and price. Time I use as an interest gauge and price I watch interactions at support or resistance as well as the average daily range.
  • #406
  • Sep 25, 2018 5:05pm Sep 25, 2018 5:05pm
1. I started trading in 2002-2003.
2. I didn't know what I was doing until 10 years had passed.
3. From 2002-2013 I have tried every single method/strategy/indicator which I could get my hands on. But nothing made me money.
4. In 2007 I had a bit of luck and turned 3K into 10K USD when Gold was trading really well. But when Gold collapsed I lost it all.
5. If you are coming on this forum to learn then its fine. But keep your head clear and eyes open.
6. If you are coming on this forum so you can use someone's strategy and make money then you will spend another 10 years here and still will not make money. This was my biggest lesson.
7. you need to create your own trading style. Any successful trader will not share his secret but will only give guidance.
8. If you have been following the guides such as using indicators, RSI etc, you will need to unlearn that. I have learnt this the hard way.
9. The markets are so efficient now that indicators do not work, or do not work all the time which is where the money is made.
10. There is no such a thing as "day trader". If there is no volatility then you cannot make money. This is the lesson I learnt. I only made money when I held positions for over a week or longer.
.....
  • #407
  • Sep 25, 2018 5:11pm Sep 25, 2018 5:11pm
Quoting squidster85
1. I started trading in 2002-2003. 2. I didn't know what I was doing until 10 years had passed. 3. From 2002-2013 I have tried every single method/strategy/indicator which I could get my hands on. But nothing made me money. 4. In 2007 I had a bit of luck and turned 3K into 10K USD when Gold was trading really well. But when Gold collapsed I lost it all. 5. If you are coming on this forum to learn then its fine. But keep your head clear and eyes open. 6. If you are coming on this forum so you can use someone's strategy and make money then you will...

As exiting a trade is the most important why would you look at charts for TA ? Why not fundamentals ?

Update : sorry wrong quote, discard this post
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #408
  • Sep 25, 2018 5:13pm Sep 25, 2018 5:13pm
Quoting squidster85
1. I started trading in 2002-2003. 2. I didn't know what I was doing until 10 years had passed. 3. From 2002-2013 I have tried every single method/strategy/indicator which I could get my hands on. But nothing made me money. 4. In 2007 I had a bit of luck and turned 3K into 10K USD when Gold was trading really well. But when Gold collapsed I lost it all. 5. If you are coming on this forum to learn then its fine. But keep your head clear and eyes open. 6. If you are coming on this forum so you can use someone's strategy and make money then you will...

Well said.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #409
  • Sep 25, 2018 5:16pm Sep 25, 2018 5:16pm
Your biggest errors are your best teaching in trading, it's normal be frustrated it's part of the life. It's not easy but not imposible, u need to be smart, learn about ur errors and keep going this is how it works
  • #410
  • Sep 25, 2018 5:17pm Sep 25, 2018 5:17pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Hi I wouldn't find it useful since I only look at charts when managing a trade and in that context, I am watching time and price. Time I use as an interest gauge and price I watch interactions at support or resistance as well as the average daily range.

As exiting a trade is the most important why would you look at charts for TA ? Why not fundamentals ?
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #411
  • Sep 25, 2018 5:18pm Sep 25, 2018 5:18pm
Quoting MonkeyDick
Your biggest errors are your best teaching in trading, it's normal be frustrated it's part of the life.

Could you elaborate please ?
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #412
  • Sep 25, 2018 5:23pm Sep 25, 2018 5:23pm
Quoting LDFX
{quote} How are you gonna trade the FOMC tomorrow for example ? Just buy usd if positive and sell if negative ? With a 25 pips stop loss ? If yes how do you manage the huge spread/volatility even if you are right? Is really 25 pips enough ? What time frame are you looking?
The hike is priced in. There will be some initial Volatility but I won't be partaking in that unless they don't raise which will be a surprise to the market and an opportunity. I will be focusing on the dot plots and the press conference. Any signs on downgrades will be dollar negative. Likewise any upgrades will be dollar positive. The recipe is simple, have preplanned counter currencies leading into the event to fit all scenarios. Keep an eye on news feeds for breakdowns of the data very quickly and react accordingly.

I sometimes get slippage it's the nature of the beast but nothing that affects the account growth. 25 pips is more than enough because the idea is to be on the right side of the move. The crazy whiplash you something see is either one of the following

Initial data good but subheadline not good

Overlapping data with different economies reporting data at the same time

News or tweet

All of the above tradable as well where I either reverse or close the trade and seek an opportunity elsewhere. I look at the hourly and 5 min charts
  • #413
  • Sep 25, 2018 5:24pm Sep 25, 2018 5:24pm
Quoting LDFX
{quote} Could you elaborate please ?
sry, In my experience develop ur trading is read,learn, try and recognize the errors and what works for you. I think that I pay for the errors, I write my big errors and try to improve.
  • #414
  • Sep 25, 2018 5:40pm Sep 25, 2018 5:40pm
Quoting LDFX
{quote} As exiting a trade is the most important why would you look at charts for TA ? Why not fundamentals ?
I do use fundamentals to exit trades like for example if there is a tweet or other unscheduled news that would affect the open position. Other than that the fundamentals provide a catalyst and their context an estimate of how much profit potential there is. I would treat manufacturing with high priority if that's what the fed are watching according to their communication. It all depends on the type of data and what it means in the short term.

I wouldn't call what I do technical analysis when it comes to managing trades. I simply use it as a time gauge relative to price and to see what technical support and resistance levels are in the works. I just eyeball it, I don't ever draw or refer to an indicator. I am just observing and timing. If price hangs about a technical level for too long I close the trade. The way I see it the longer you are in the market the, more risk you have to accept. There are plenty of opportunities to get into. I guess you could call it proactive protection on the account. Its probably why I have 79 to 80 percent win rate (seems to fluctuate there).
  • #415
  • Sep 25, 2018 5:41pm Sep 25, 2018 5:41pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} The hike is priced in. There will be some initial Volatility but I won't be partaking in that unless they don't raise which will be a surprise to the market and an opportunity. I will be focusing on the dot plots and the press conference. Any signs on downgrades will be dollar negative. Likewise any upgrades will be dollar positive. The recipe is simple, have preplanned counter currencies leading into the event to fit all scenarios. Keep an eye on news feeds for breakdowns of the data very quickly and react accordingly. I sometimes get slippage...


25 pips on which pairs ? how much risk in % ?
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #416
  • Sep 25, 2018 5:43pm Sep 25, 2018 5:43pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} I do use fundamentals to exit trades like for example if there is a tweet or other unscheduled news that would affect the open position. Other than that the fundamentals provide a catalyst and their context an estimate of how much profit potential there is. I would treat manufacturing with high priority if that's what the fed are watching according to their communication. It all depends on the type of data and what it means in the short term. I wouldn't call what I do technical analysis when it comes to managing trades. I simply use it as...

Support/resistance is technical.

80% win rate ?!

How long have you been trading ?

ps : do not forget to answer : “25 pips on which pairs ? how much risk in % ?”
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #417
  • Sep 25, 2018 5:45pm Sep 25, 2018 5:45pm
Quoting LDFX
{quote} 25 pips on which pairs ? how much risk in % ?
On any pair I trade across the variance of the following economies

Usd
Cad
Gbp
Eur
Chf
Jpy
Aud
Nzd

I also trade. Gold and oil

I risk 2 to 4 percent per trade
  • #418
  • Edited 6:02pm Sep 25, 2018 5:50pm | Edited 6:02pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} On any pair I trade across the variance of the following economies Usd Cad Gbp Eur Chf Jpy Aud Nzd I also trade. Gold and oil I risk 2 to 4 percent per trade

80% win rate ?

Why would you risk 25 pips with pairs of different volatility? Especially during news...

How long have you been trading ?
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #419
  • Sep 26, 2018 1:51am Sep 26, 2018 1:51am
Quoting LDFX
{quote} 80% win rate ? Why would you risk 25 pips with pairs of different volatility? Especially during news... How long have you been trading ?
25 pips is the worst case scenario. Very rarely does it ever get hit I am mostly getting out for either a few pips profit or loss most of the time. I do the occasional swing trade using a catalyst to get me in and these have a 40 pip stop. If you are on the right side of the news within a minute approximately, you tend to have a 10 to 15 pip buffer as a result of the high level of interest going on. Sometimes I am out of the trade for 30 pips within a few mins. It all depends in a number of factors. Seems to be working well and I am getting better all the time. I have been trading a little over a year but have been in the industry for 20 years which has helped immensely.
  • #420
  • Sep 26, 2018 2:30am Sep 26, 2018 2:30am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} On any pair I trade across the variance of the following economies Usd Cad Gbp Eur Chf Jpy Aud Nzd I also trade. Gold and oil I risk 2 to 4 percent per trade
Your position sizing makes 25 pip 2 to 4% of your equity? You do 25 pip also on GJ? You have 80% success rate? 25pip SL is pure scalping and 80% success rate when scalping is close to unbelievable. Risking 4% on every scalp is even more unbelievable (and definitely road to margin call).

Somehow I'm starting to doubt your claims. Especially when you trade only 1 year. Being in the industry and trading your own money is a huge difference. Also risking 2-4% per trade you would never do if you were in the industry for 20 years anywhere near trading.

I was skeptical before when you claimed how well you can benefit from those unexpected unannounced moves but now even more so.
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