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8 Years Later - Still Not Winning

  • #341
  • Sep 23, 2018 9:03am Sep 23, 2018 9:03am
Quoting Nefser
{quote} I would have thought it's the psychology of accepting what is being shown by any technical tools to give confidence to get into a trade, at a point where the market does react according to what was being indicated. Therefore confidence in your system and/or technical tools is what gives an edge over just looking at a random chart of prices and making a decision only based on that. Anyone says you can just trade on what the price shows and doesn't need technical tools is a liar, as a consecutive list of prices over a timeframe is also a technical...
Thanks for the comments Nefser

Yes you're right, and as I said, technical tools can indeed give you confidence to enter but, in my opinion, gives you no edge. No one has ever shown me any data that proves that any technical analysis can give you an edge, TA is all pretty much 50/50 over time!

I hear what you're saying but I'm afraid I disagree with you, using your analogy I would be able to trade profitably without a chart. Remember price is Random with occasional Levy Flight so all I need to do is capture that occasional Levy Flight and I'm way in profit.

We as humans crave certainty, and in trading we latch onto TA in the belief that it will for fulfil that craving. Use TA as a structure only as it's the trade management and where you exit that will give you profits over time. Where you enter the trade is the least important part of any trade...................
  • #342
  • Sep 23, 2018 9:09am Sep 23, 2018 9:09am
Quoting ebeckers
What helped me: -) Stop searching for the holy grail. No strategy, indicator, mentor, whatever is going to predict the market perfectly all the time. Accept that this is a probabilities game and there will be winners and losers. Key is knowing your probability and use proper risk management to make consistent profit -) Put it in the time, work , sweat and tears. Don't think some magical EA, or signal service, is going to make you millions -) Stop switching strategies. People tend to find a strategy , trade it and then when they encounter a few losers...
Great post ebeckers, I agree with 99% of what you say. In fact I din't think I can add anything.............
  • #343
  • Sep 23, 2018 10:09am Sep 23, 2018 10:09am
Quoting diceman555
{quote} The point I'm making is as intraday traders you are most likely to be to late to join a trend.unless you can establish something far behind an individual pair.there are moments when the market is collectively in agreement and cannot be manipulated .those are the times you should be placing your trades.but they are only relevant in a certain market state.your risk is very low and your reward is extremely high.look at the market in a different way.as a whole not in a singular way.
In my opinion diceman555 your entry is by far the least important part of the trade. I enter on an M15 but really it could be H4 or the Daily, M15 is just convenient and gives me more opportunities!
You're dead right it is market conditions that governs my profits, but I'm not sure how on earth you can tell what the conditions are going to be like on any given trading day or week. How can you say that now's the right time to trade UJ or EU rather than say EJ, it's impossible! Or am I missing something? I understand that all pairs are correlated with each other to differing degrees but I'm unsure what you're getting at. How can being 'collectively in agreement' and 'cannot be manipulated' ever help?
There are so many aspects that govern price movement in FX that we, as retail traders, cannot ever hope to have to use it in our trading. Central Banks, Hedge Funds, Investment Banks all have their own agenda and have access to data that we cannot ever see.
  • #344
  • Sep 23, 2018 10:40am Sep 23, 2018 10:40am
Luck plays a huge roll in my trading!
I know people use TA to try and have control over their trading when really it's all down to luck. I've had it proven to me that TA just doesn't make any difference, and at the end of the day it's all down to luck!
Luck that I was in that pair at that time
Luck that I entered at that time
Luck that I exited before it turned
Luck that I held onto it for the time I did

Everything in life is down to luck.
  • #345
  • Sep 23, 2018 11:34am Sep 23, 2018 11:34am
the most valuable thing we have is time, no one can afford to waste a moment of it. no amount of money can buy more time.
  • #346
  • Sep 23, 2018 12:17pm Sep 23, 2018 12:17pm
Quoting rover99x
{quote} In my opinion diceman555 your entry is by far the least important part of the trade. I enter on an M15 but really it could be H4 or the Daily, M15 is just convenient and gives me more opportunities! You're dead right it is market conditions that governs my profits, but I'm not sure how on earth you can tell what the conditions are going to be like on any given trading day or week. How can you say that now's the right time to trade UJ or EU rather than say EJ, it's impossible! Or am I missing something? I understand that all pairs are correlated...
Very good questions rover.

The first thing Is I generally only trade cable and ft100.

Before I consider a trade I have over time realised that the probability increases In my favour if the market is not in a chaotic state,(ie conflicting within in it's self)that's why I only place a trade when the basket I monitor is in total agreement.buying risk or selling risk.
From this point I determine were the over all market is within it's average ranges ie the change in values of those individual pairs.when the market stalls it stalls as one.

I look for an influx ,on occasion my particular trading pair may be the lagging pair I try to enter with this over all market influx which enables my position to be less at risk.if you have never looked at the market as a whole you will not understand what I'm trying to convey.

Whilst the market is in this state it's very powerfull and deterministic .

Ofcoarse the market can change without delay and I can do nothing about that ,but if I enter within the above conditions I'm trading with momentum in a collective agreed market and my probability has increased.as to the opposite which is to trade an individual pair oblivious to the fact that one is trading in a market state of randomness and chaos which is total confliction across market.
  • #347
  • Sep 23, 2018 2:47pm Sep 23, 2018 2:47pm
Quoting diceman555
{quote} Very good questions rover. The first thing Is I generally only trade cable and ft100. Before I consider a trade I have over time realised that the probability increases In my favour if the market is not in a chaotic state,(ie conflicting within in it's self)that's why I only place a trade when the basket I monitor is in total agreement.buying risk or selling risk. From this point I determine were the over all market is within it's average ranges ie the change in values of those individual pairs.when the market stalls it stalls as one. I...
Thank you for the reply diceman555

Yes I do get where you're coming from and I have to take my hat off to you, I don't think I could ever trade like that. And trading FTSE, it's so erratic! I've stopped trading Cable because anyone mentioning Brexit can just whack it around ! I have been trading for a good many years now and have never come across anyone trading the way you've described, well done, it obviously works for you! For me it would be just too screen intensive.....

When I first posted here I was just trying to say that to trade profitably you don't need any expertise, no fancy indicators and no fancy analysis, anyone can do it!
I use no analysis at all, fundamental or technical, I take no notice of any scheduled news (unless it's really really game changing) and the only indicator I use is a 200 SMA for direction. Currently I use EJ only and generally, don't hold over the weekend. I simply go long above the MA and short below, at the moment using M15. I target around seven times my risk but sometimes trail. And that's it, nothing else!
Now I loose obviously many more times than I win but each win is at least seven times my risk and quite often ten or fifteen times! So for me, trading is all about probabilities and luck! (but I do think there's luck in every trader's results)

Many thanks for explaining what you do, it's certainly quite fascinating
  • #348
  • Sep 23, 2018 3:30pm Sep 23, 2018 3:30pm
Quoting rimba
{quote} I won 5 million USD as a retailer trader , do you believe on me ??? I don't think you do, neither me.
Could you explain your trading journal here. Lets share your journey. people are insterested my friend.
Profit growth tells you the trader ability.
  • #349
  • Sep 23, 2018 5:04pm Sep 23, 2018 5:04pm
Quoting rimba
{quote} I won 5 million USD as a retailer trader , do you believe on me ??? I don't think you do, neither me.
Well maybe you have, well done! I look forward to seeing your method
  • #350
  • Sep 23, 2018 9:44pm Sep 23, 2018 9:44pm
me too .. also me no wins! but ill try until 3 years now my training experience.now no much lost. im happy now bcs i have improvement for save losts. but i still training find my own strategy!
udskrish
  • #351
  • Sep 24, 2018 1:16am Sep 24, 2018 1:16am
Do you ever try use Market profile and implement Volume in to your trading? This was first improvement i start with :-)
  • #352
  • Sep 24, 2018 1:39am Sep 24, 2018 1:39am
Quoting rover99x
Luck plays a huge roll in my trading! I know people use TA to try and have control over their trading when really it's all down to luck. I've had it proven to me that TA just doesn't make any difference, and at the end of the day it's all down to luck! Luck that I was in that pair at that time Luck that I entered at that time Luck that I exited before it turned Luck that I held onto it for the time I did Everything in life is down to luck.
Using "luck" as an argument is as unprovable as talking about faith (religion or otherwise). The minute you throw that into the equation, or talk about it just being random 50/50 then any discussion about the markets is pointless.

So in a sense, why would you be here, posting in forum related to discussing the fundamental and/or technical aspects of trading. Not worth discussing any of this with you.

Good "luck" in your "lucky trade flips".
  • #353
  • Edited 5:50am Sep 24, 2018 5:23am | Edited 5:50am
Quoting Nefser
{quote} Using "luck" as an argument is as unprovable as talking about faith (religion or otherwise). The minute you throw that into the equation, or talk about it just being random 50/50 then any discussion about the markets is pointless. So in a sense, why would you be here, posting in forum related to discussing the fundamental and/or technical aspects of trading. Not worth discussing any of this with you. Good "luck" in your "lucky trade flips".
Hi Nefser

I never said the market is 50/50 random, as it's definitely not!
The market is Random with occasional Levy Flight, and it's that Levy Flight that makes all the difference. I also have data that shows that a random entry combined with great trade management and exits can be and is profitable over time. And that Technical Analysis used on entries gives you no real edge, again over time!

I really thought discussion is about opening yourself up to look at new possibilities and to create constructive arguments to put forward your own point of view!
But never mind if you feel I'm not 'worth it'

Best wishes
  • #354
  • Sep 24, 2018 9:15pm Sep 24, 2018 9:15pm
Quoting rover99x
{quote} Hi Nefser I never said the market is 50/50 random, as it's definitely not! The market is Random with occasional Levy Flight, and it's that Levy Flight that makes all the difference. I also have data that shows that a random entry combined with great trade management and exits can be and is profitable over time. And that Technical Analysis used on entries gives you no real edge, again over time! I really thought discussion is about opening yourself up to look at new possibilities and to create constructive arguments to put forward your own...
I actually agree with Rover here. He has a point.
  • #355
  • Sep 25, 2018 2:06am Sep 25, 2018 2:06am
Quoting Robotmike
{quote} I actually agree with Rover here. He has a point.
The point I made was about his Luck post. It's luck, luck and a bit more luck...and spam and luck. Realised it was pointless discussing anything with him at that point.

You can discuss your Levy Flight analysis and all this deep correlative, random walk theories all day long. It doesn't matter. Either you feel you can use technical tools to help see where the market is moving and give some confidence it's potentially better than a 50/50 or you don't. I don't care if others don't.

I can't win in Roulette betting on red/black - 50/50.
I can't win games reliably guessing Heads/Tails - 50/50.

I can make money doing trading using technical tools. For me, that is a simple proof that it's NOT 50/50.
  • #356
  • Sep 25, 2018 4:08am Sep 25, 2018 4:08am
Quoting Nefser
{quote} The point I made was about his Luck post. It's luck, luck and a bit more luck...and spam and luck. Realised it was pointless discussing anything with him at that point. You can discuss your Levy Flight analysis and all this deep correlative, random walk theories all day long. It doesn't matter. Either you feel you can use technical tools to help see where the market is moving and give some confidence it's potentially better than a 50/50 or you don't. I don't care if others don't. I can't win in Roulette betting on red/black - 50/50. I can't...
I'm sorry Nefser but you seem to be obsessed with 50/50 and I'm not sure where this came from.

Of course you can't make money from a 50/50 game, you're quoting something that I didn't say.
You seem to be thinking that I'm attacking your way of trading using TA, I certainly am NOT.

I started thinking this way some time ago when I realised that so much money is made teaching people how to trade, in fact there are so many training sites and online courses around collecting money from naive newbies that training must be easier than trading! Now one thing that all these training sites have in common is that they all teach trading using technical analysis and chart reading as if it's some sort of holy grail. Now I know for a fact that Investment banks (Credit Suisse is the one I've seen) don't use any TA at all, they may use MAs to track instruments but that's all, and they all have their own agenda to fill depending on their clients needs. This just got me thinking about the whole thing on technical analysis, does it actually have an edge in itself as the pros don't seem to use it at all, or is it just something dreamt up over time to sell trading books!
As humans we all tend to look for certainty in things and the idea of luck playing a role just doesn't st well with us at all, so has TA just been made up over the years in an attempt to give us a feeling of being in control and give us a feeling of some sort of certainty.
Now I have to say that all this thinking is not all my own, I've been introduced to this by someone else but it does sit very well with my own feelings. I'm not saying that we should just abandon TA but that we should just be aware that maybe it doesn't give us that trading edge we expect, and maybe it's just all down to a series of probabilities, and dare I say it, luck!
  • #357
  • Sep 25, 2018 6:04am Sep 25, 2018 6:04am
Just to add to Rover99x's comment. Technical analysis in the investment banking world is only used to manage trades but isn't the main tool they use for it. They utilise price testing models to measure risk and that has more value than TA based trade management. I know this because I have spent the last 20 years working at investment banks close to their trading data.

I too have taken a leaf out of their book and don't even look at charts to define my trades. All of them are derived off fundamentals and news. I only look at a chart after I have entered a trade to manage it. The process is working well and the account has grown well over 100 percent in the current year.

TA has absolutely zero advantage defining trades. Its a soup of smoke and mirrors with patterns repeating through coincidence. You could have pattern ABC 3 days ago and the same pattern forming now but the drivers of price have no relationship with patterns. To be advantageous there would need to be a correlation and there isn't.

People get sucked into TA because it is easy to learn and they can see albeit unrelated repeating patterns making them believe it works. I can show you any currency chart right now and show you repeating outcomes that correlate with fundamental drivers. These events have no patterns its just a marker when news was released and the subsequent price movement.

You can't show me a chart where TA has the same relationship.
  • #358
  • Sep 25, 2018 6:09am Sep 25, 2018 6:09am
Quoting EcoTrader
I can show you any currency chart right now and show you repeating outcomes that correlate with fundamental drivers.

Yes please.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #359
  • Sep 25, 2018 6:30am Sep 25, 2018 6:30am
Quoting EcoTrader
Just to add to Rover99x's comment. Technical analysis in the investment banking world is only used to manage trades but isn't the main tool they use for it. They utilise price testing models to measure risk and that has more value than TA based trade management. I know this because I have spent the last 20 years working at investment banks close to their trading data. I too have taken a leaf out of their book and don't even look at charts to define my trades. All of them are derived off fundamentals and news. I only look at a chart after I have...
Would you not say EcoTrader that, as retail traders, we don't have access to all the fundamental data and news that is needed to trade from it?
  • #360
  • Sep 25, 2018 6:36am Sep 25, 2018 6:36am
Quoting LDFX
{quote} Yes please.
Pick a pair so as to remove me "CHERRY PICKING"
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