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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #58,001
  • Sep 11, 2018 8:12am Sep 11, 2018 8:12am
Quoting ukmanthailan
Thanks RelaxRay and EcoTrader, some great suggestions for me to investigate. I know that by the time I hear the news, the move will already be half over but I like to know why it's suddenly taken off rather than having to wait half an hour for a one liner to appear on FXStreet. More timely economic data releases would also be great because there's often a period of 10-15 seconds after a big release when the price is jumping up and down without actually going anywhere and if I knew what the data was, I could form an opinion about what I should do...
In that case use forexlive
  • #58,002
  • Sep 11, 2018 9:23am Sep 11, 2018 9:23am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} In that case use forexlive
Thanks. What about economic data releases though? Would the paid services you mentioned deliver those faster, i.e. as they are released rather than 40 seconds later?
  • #58,003
  • Sep 11, 2018 9:59am Sep 11, 2018 9:59am
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} Thanks. What about economic data releases though? Would the paid services you mentioned deliver those faster, i.e. as they are released rather than 40 seconds later?
You will get the release data within 10 seconds on forexlive and within 5 seconds on tradingeconomics.com
  • #58,004
  • Sep 13, 2018 10:55am Sep 13, 2018 10:55am
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} Thanks. What about economic data releases though? Would the paid services you mentioned deliver those faster, i.e. as they are released rather than 40 seconds later?
Don't waste your money on paid news services. There is no chance for you to beat the HFT Algos, no matter how fast you get the news. Your brain will always be an eternity slower than the Algos, which process the information within milliseconds or nanoseconds.

Either get in before the news or after.
  • #58,005
  • Sep 17, 2018 2:10am Sep 17, 2018 2:10am
Hope FTI is doing ok.... miss him .... and Phil too


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #58,006
  • Edited 3:43am Sep 17, 2018 3:32am | Edited 3:43am
Quoting ukmanthailan
Here's some bad habits to avoid: 1. Never flip a position unless you are caught in a strong impulse wave against you and you are trading against the daily trend for some reason. At any other time, a rescue is much easier to deal with mentally than flipping (or reversing) your position is. The problem with flipping a position is that if the market starts to go against you again, you have no mental fortitude to deal with it because it is now going the way you originally thought it might and you will want to flip again....and if it's in a distribution...
I do not think I agree with above thinking about it:

  1. saying never flip unless in line with daily trend is too rigid (daily could be exhausting/reversing/in pullback) - best be aware of daily at all times and what it is doing/where it is etc - of course if trading against a higher trend, it can always come in and bite you big time but then you should be aware that you are doing that and flip back into main trend when it goes that way - what price is doing in the now is really important too - rigid is bad. Hard to set such rules, I think. Think FTI was always aware of daily action. But if you have strong impulse against you and higher time frame trends are against you, then you are for sure on the wrong bus.
  2. I think of rescue as getting in at a better/discount price but super dangerous against higher time frame trend or even strong NOW trend.
  3. if flipping lots: get out you are lost or mind disturbed and may get killed (protect book) unless you are like FTI and scouting(only) about for feel.
  4. if in congestion sideways type phase (could be accumulation/distribution):

    1. narrow congestion: stay out or maybe just a scout for feel;
    2. if in wide range - can trade at top and at bottom if good at reading PA to run between the range or scout with trend and wait see what happens


  5. if mindset disturbed you could lock out position so that you do not lose any more until mindset comes good

I just find if I am rigid, it goes wrong. Be interesting what others think. Thanks for posting this making me think.

Alex

check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #58,007
  • Sep 17, 2018 5:22am Sep 17, 2018 5:22am
Hi Alex

I am good thanks now, just a little sore from the operation on my shoulder, should all be back to normal in about another 3-4 weeks, will be posting some trades soon hopefully, only got back to the UK late last night.

Wishing our friend FTi well wishes as well where ever he is.

Hope you are ok also.

Nice post above.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #58,008
  • Sep 17, 2018 5:28am Sep 17, 2018 5:28am
Quoting phil13
Hi Alex I am good thanks now, just a little sore from the operation on my shoulder, should all be back to normal in about another 3-4 weeks, will be posting some trades soon hopefully, only got back to the UK late last night. Wishing our friend FTi well wishes as well where ever he is. Hope you are ok also. Nice post above. Regards Phil.

relieved you are doing ok....... all clear for me for c.3/4 years.

Cannot believe I am saying too rigid -me - how strange.



Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #58,009
  • Sep 19, 2018 2:23am Sep 19, 2018 2:23am
Quoting ukmanthailan
Here's some bad habits to avoid:........

something that has just occurred to me on this for some reason.... FTI story re the flooding and where is the rescue.....


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #58,010
  • Sep 19, 2018 4:34pm Sep 19, 2018 4:34pm
Hi pls everyone am a new trader looking forward to join you milk the market using pivote point
But I have a quetion on that
Pls in using pivote point on 4hrs time frame will i calculate for it again and again every 4hrs or ?
Pls help me
  • #58,011
  • Sep 19, 2018 6:49pm Sep 19, 2018 6:49pm
Quoting Palmzy
Hi pls everyone am a new trader looking forward to join you milk the market using pivote point But I have a quetion on that Pls in using pivote point on 4hrs time frame will i calculate for it again and again every 4hrs or ? Pls help me
Hi Palmzy. If you're using the daily pivot, the pivot point stays the same for 24 hours, regardless of the time frame you observe it on. If you're using a weekly pivot, it stays the same for one week, also regardless of chart time frame.

Hope this helps. Good luck with your trading!
  • #58,012
  • Sep 19, 2018 10:05pm Sep 19, 2018 10:05pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
{quote} Hi Palmzy. If you're using the daily pivot, the pivot point stays the same for 24 hours, regardless of the time frame you observe it on. If you're using a weekly pivot, it stays the same for one week, also regardless of chart time frame. Hope this helps. Good luck with your trading!
Thanks to Pips_Cruiser it looks truly simple.

Just to add to the arithmetic timewise, we might well be in different time zones having 24 hours started and ended either remotely. Even for weeks, certain charts could include Sunday afternoon (Australian and New Zealand's "outbreak"). Or, there is a single valid 24 hours count perfectly serving the method. Then, how much of precision suggests the Pivot be reliable.

As Alexandria has consistently been stressing, what that sort of rigidity might make of the Pivots?
Presumably, someone, after putting enough efforts will find a time frame and related Pivot that would work for him/ her individually.
I should look at the Pivot from this thread page 1 perspective.
Enjoy your trading!

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,013
  • Sep 19, 2018 11:20pm Sep 19, 2018 11:20pm
Quoting alexandria
{quote} I do not think I agree with above thinking about it: saying never flip unless in line with daily trend is too rigid (daily could be exhausting/reversing/in pullback) - best be aware of daily at all times and what it is doing/where it is etc - of course if trading against a higher trend, it can always come in and bite you big time but then you should be aware that you are doing that and flip back into main trend when it goes that way - what price is doing in the now is really important too - rigid is bad. Hard to set such rules, I think....
Yes rigidity is not a desirable quality as far as your read of the markets is concerned but if you discover a weakness and do not address it, that is even less desirable. I am not suggesting that you do not close your losing trades if you find yourself swimming against the tide in a strong impulse wave, I am suggesting that you do not flip your position, e.g. close a long and open a larger short, because it will be very difficult to maintain a level mindset in the event things start to go against you again. if you look back through this thread, you will find that fti himself cautioned against flipping unless in extreme circumstances.

Rigidity is undesirable as far as your market outlook is concerned but fti never said it was undesirable in other ways. For example, he recommended that you stop trading for the day if you have lost 2-3 times your normal daily profit, but perhaps you would call that too rigid? Fixed rules can prevent one from sustaining damage due to one's inherent weaknesses. if I lose 9 times out of 10 when flipping then I am happy to maintain a no flipping rule because it makes perfect sense to me and makes me more profitable. Flipping is often a form of revenge trading anyway - you would be better served to close your losing positions and reassess your market read rather than flipping your position in the heat of the moment.

These are just my thoughts anyway, they are, of course, not necessarily in line with everything that fti said but in this case I think they are actually broadly in line with what he taught in this thread.
  • #58,014
  • Edited 12:54am Sep 20, 2018 12:14am | Edited 12:54am
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} ............but if you discover a weakness and do not address it, that is even less desirable........
If we find sth is consistently bad for us then for sure change it. I just get worried about rules..... flipping in range is for sure dangerous thingy and if dizzy stop. Maybe flipping is not a good term. Maybe flipping is really turning position back with trend or rescue with trend.

I like this FTI magic:

PA was not confusing.
You was confused because you have not strategy deal with the change.
With more experience you will have more tricks in your bag deal with the confusing stuff.

Alternative , would be to allow position to bleed until you sighted PA that you can handle.
But this then can become very capital intensive.

If it breaks down and becomes unmanagable.
Just dump the potato on the road side.

But remember when you flip positions, do it only if you "experiencing" high momentum . Otherwise can get "screwed" both positions. The timing is crucial.

In fast markets, survival depends on reflex. There is little time to strategise, and if initial strategy is in trouble, then just damage control. If you stop to think you will lag behind market, very far behind.

Beware book damage by too many dead scouts. Flipping of directional trade is moderated by impulse and trend not by book. Inability to dance is dangerous to MO.

I sometime turn on positions if i detect that i am in trade against trend.
When in congestion ranges, I never turn.
If i had to turn, in ranges, already means the positions already deep dead in the waters.

Thanks for highlighting flipping... been good for me.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #58,015
  • Sep 22, 2018 6:48am Sep 22, 2018 6:48am
Hello FF friends. Been absent from the thread for a long while, as am not that active with Forex anymore. Just want to share with you the good news that Master FTI is well and is sending his best wishes to the group. I happened to meet him via social media and here's his words:

Fti (edited) For the boys at FF, I am afraid I have nothing more to contribute. I had given em all that I can. Expect they will develop and bring skills to new heights. For me I no play at the arena anymore, so I no make comments. Take good care my friend. Thanks for remembering me.
Fti (edited) By the way. Can tell the chappys I am OK. Just some vegetative, while waiting to expire. Wish them all the best for me.

Good luck and happy trading everyone. Pleased to see you continue to make the thread active. Cheers!!!
  • #58,016
  • Sep 22, 2018 8:52pm Sep 22, 2018 8:52pm
Quoting jonyl_pips
Hello FF friends. Been absent from the thread for a long while, as am not that active with Forex anymore. Just want to share with you the good news that Master FTI is well and is sending his best wishes to the group. I happened to meet him via social media and here's his words: Fti (edited) For the boys at FF, I am afraid I have nothing more to contribute. I had given em all that I can. Expect they will develop and bring skills to new heights. For me I no play at the arena anymore, so I no...
glad fti is doing well.
  • #58,017
  • Sep 23, 2018 2:30am Sep 23, 2018 2:30am
Quoting jonyl_pips
Hello FF friends. Been absent from the thread for a long while, as am not that active with Forex anymore. Just want to share with you the good news that Master FTI is well and is sending his best wishes to the group. I happened to meet him via social media and here's his words: Fti (edited) For the boys at FF, I am afraid I have nothing more to contribute. I had given em all that I can. Expect they will develop and bring skills to new heights. For me I no play at the arena anymore, so I no...
Hi jonyl_pips

thanks for the update

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #58,018
  • Edited 7:28am Sep 25, 2018 6:21am | Edited 7:28am
Quoting jonyl_pips
For the boys at FF....Take good care my friend. Thanks for remembering me. ... Pleased to see you continue to make the thread active. Cheers!!!

Thanking jonyl_pips, I would like to write a message to fti, a so distant friend. Because I'm sure he will read it.


A real friend is NEVER far away. Friendship doesn't count miles.
It is a huge pleasure and an immense joy to be here reading a message from you.
I always knew that you were OK.
Now I have a second desire: I would like (with all my heart) to have you in person back here on your pages.
Come on, Sir... you have a lot to do here.

Among all the other things.... LOL
in this fascinating journey through different cultures and experiences,
you, my mentor and teacher, you taught me to love Chinese/Cantonese Music.
This one is for you, dear friend.
It's a love song... and "You gave me the address to the sky" is perfect for your Trading Teachings and Tips.

Play the song at high volume, sound is very good!
And stay well,
Franco

Inserted Video
  • #58,019
  • Sep 25, 2018 11:06pm Sep 25, 2018 11:06pm
Hope friends are doing good. Wanted to ask if someone knows i am looking to get option data of US equities and forex etc. Past data any reasonable place i can get it?
  • #58,020
  • Sep 26, 2018 12:25am Sep 26, 2018 12:25am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Hope friends are doing good. Wanted to ask if someone knows i am looking to get option data of US equities and forex etc. Past data any reasonable place i can get it?
http://base2.optionsdatamine.com/pag...on=PAGE1_index

Seems to be free data.

Alternative is to go to cboe, but not sure if it's free.
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