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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #6,941
  • Sep 20, 2018 10:44am Sep 20, 2018 10:44am
AUDCAD

Quoting huatzhi
AUDCAD BB - Monthly {image} Strong shooting star on March followed by last month big bearish bar showing strong bearish momentum. Current month is landing on the support. Dominant trend is still ranging as the price has not yet breaking the support/ranging low. B - Weekly {image} Red strat shadow is still expanding. Currently is still on down trend, however, whether it still continue or not is unknown. Price had hit a support and bouncing back quite a bit on opening candle and last closed candle. W - Daily {image} An unconfirmed Shooting Star on...
huatzhi, you have received excellent comments from An Lie88 and Mhons so please take note of them.

An Lie88 and Mhons - thank you for commenting and HELPING your fellow trader in the Spirit of this thread - TRADERS HELPING TRADERS.

Just a few more comments:

BB - Monthly
Strong shooting star on March followed by last month big bearish bar showing strong bearish momentum. Current month is landing on the support. Dominant trend is still ranging as the price has not yet breaking the support/ranging low.

Good, but you missed the most important part on that chart. Go back and take another look at the Big Boss. Even though the Big Boss candle is not complete (CLOSED), the message is very clear. The candle is a doji star telling us that the sellers sold down to support where there where BUYERS willing to buy at that level and push PRICE up. Make sure you can SEE and UNDERSTAND that because everything from there follows the Big Boss.

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B - Weekly
Red strat shadow is still expanding.
Currently is still on down trend, however, whether it still continue or not is unknown.
Price had hit a support and bouncing back quite a bit on opening candle and last closed candle.

Red strat shadow is still expanding.

Be very careful with this. WE DO NOT TRADE THE STRAT SHADOW - we ONLY use it as one of our tools in PASR.

Price had hit a support and bouncing back quite a bit on opening candle and last closed candle.

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You got this correct but did not USE IT in your analysis. The Big Boss already told you this. The Boss is doing exactly what the Big Boss instructed - every time frame from the Big Boss down will do as the Big Boss instructs! Since you have confirmation from the Boss of the Big Boss's orders, everything you look at should be for LONG positions.

All and any information on the Worker which CONTRADICTS the Big Boss and Boss should be ignored!

I suggest you read, learn and UNDERSTAND again, my POWER OF TIME FRAMES.

Thank you for posting and don't be discouraged.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,942
  • Edited 5:56pm Sep 20, 2018 11:23am | Edited 5:56pm
GBPCAD

Quoting Malu
GBP CAD BB is in a downtrend. Hammer of last month ist supposed to be a bond hammer, so the BB is still on the way down. B is still in a downtrend, too, although we are in an upswing at the moment. Trading this would be a countertrend-trade (in my opinion), which I am trying to avoid at the moment. Price closed two times close belowe the 72 EMA. So I would expect that the upswing could be over soon and price continues walking to the south again. Worker: Price couldn't break the 72 EMA significantly. When price breaks 20 EMA I suppose that the downtrend...
Please take note of Humbucker's excellent comments and thank you, Humbucker, for helping your fellow trader. Very disappointing that no-one else wanted to help.

In addition:

BB is in a downtrend. Hammer of last month ist supposed to be a bond hammer, so the BB is still on the way down

Take another look at YOUR "bond" Hammer and then go back and study my posts on Hammers and Shooting Stars.

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That Hammer is telling us that the sellers sold down to support where BUYERS were willing to BUY at that PRICE level.

In addition, look at the BIG PICTURE the Big Boss is telling you. From January 2017 until now, PRICE is SWINGING from BRN 1.58 to BRN 1.84 in a series of L-H-HL-HH - HL telling us to THINK in terms of Big Boss Swings.

B is still in a downtrend, too, although we are in an upswing at the moment. Trading this would be a counter trend-trade (in my opinion), which I am trying to avoid at the moment. Price closed two times below the 72 EMA. So I would expect that the upswing could be over soon and price continues walking to the south again.

Correct but for the wrong reasons. PRICE is likely to hit resistance and be rejected only to find support to continue with the Big Boss instructions. See my post 6941 to huatzhi for more information.

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Worker: Price couldn't break the 72 EMA significantly. When price breaks 20 EMA I suppose that the downtrend continues. So the worker looks bnearish, too. H4 is in a swing down at the moment.

Price couldn't break the 72 EMA significantly.

We do NOT trade moving averages!

When price breaks 20 EMA I suppose that the downtrend continues

Good, BUT that is only one of the conditions in PASR

So the worker looks bearish, too.

Not mine!

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H4 is in a swing down at the moment.

Who cares?

Finally, be very careful with GBP pairs until the Brexit mess is finally resolved. Idiotic comments from the UK and Europe are playing havoc with PRICE - easily seen on short time frames.

Thanks for posting and again, study my Post 6941 AND, I suggest you read, learn and UNDERSTAND again, my POWER OF TIME FRAMES.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,943
  • Sep 20, 2018 11:33am Sep 20, 2018 11:33am
NZDJPY

Quoting Rub
Ok, here's one that just hit my TP. For my time zone, trading the yen pairs on 4hr is quite doable, so when I saw the price action on boss I kept an eye out for entry. I targeted the most recent swing low/high above my entry as this trade seems very counter the big boss trend and I targeted the first resistance after my entry. Could go further, might reverse, either way it's another step further along the path. EDIT: Where I marked that I moved the first entry to break even, I was away from the screen for the previous candle, so there's no entry...
Well done, Rub, you are progressing well on The Path.

For my time zone, trading the yen pairs on 4hr is quite doable

OTHER TRADERS - This is very important - find the time frame and pairs which are IN CONTROL in YOUR time zone and which suits your personality and personal circumstances.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,944
  • Sep 20, 2018 12:05pm Sep 20, 2018 12:05pm
Quoting samsonwebdes
When I've had time in the last month I've been attempting to study Elliot Wave theory in an effort to help me get into fewer trades with a higher probability. My idea is to have extra confluence and narrow down my focus by having an idea when price may turn as well as where it's likely to go. Strat will probably tell me I'm overcomplicating the simplicity of PASR but there was a major change last month in the UK with margin regulations which has led me to concentrate more and take less trades. This margin ruling has meant I could get into less trades...
Lee, thank you for posting.

Strat will probably tell me I'm over complicating the simplicity of PASR

Yes, that is the BIG DANGER. Remember my many posts where I ONLY use EW to confirm PASR to INCREASE probability.

but there was a major change last month in the UK with margin regulations which has led me to concentrate more and take less trades. This margin ruling has meant I could get into less trades (only around 1/4 of my usual) and last month I fell foul of the new rules by missing good opportunities and let the bad ones run so had a bad month as a consequence.

Lee, EW will NOT help you over come this!

missing good opportunities and let the bad ones run so had a bad month as a consequence

This has NOTHING to do with PASR, EW or any trading strategy OR, not understanding EW. This is down to BAD trader execution and BAD trade management - FACE FACTS and do not try to hide behind ""not knowing EW""

Strat has mentioned Elliot Wave many times previously and while not the focus of PASR it's another string to add to the bow for confirmation of price action at support and resistance.

It is ONLY another "string to add to the bow" if you know how to use an UNDERSTANDING of EW to provide confluence with PASR.

we all need a reason to get in the market and trade

It is called PASR and the reason has NOTHING to do with EW!

but I caught pretty much the whole wave anyway.

Lucky you! Please post when your EW trades don't work out. They will FAR OUTNUMBER those that do!

I'm not intending to post Elliot Wave analysis here

Good! That is an immediate IGNORE!

if Strat doesn't mind the odd few numbers on a chart I'm happy to keep sharing my thoughts on it

OK but only if you REALLY know what you are doing with EW

I think keeping an eye out for the big moves and the expected pullbacks for an entry makes a sound strategy for PASR.

This is called PASR Trend Trading!

The MAs, Strat shadow and recent S/R will all at some point be in confluence with a wave we can see

Plus Fibonacci, harmonics, ratios, pivots, supply and demand, candlestick patterns, wiggly squiggly lines, EAs, black boxes and of course, the Planets.

I've no idea if I've even drawn those waves in correctly and it worked out!

Lucky you! Please post when your EW trades don't work out. They will FAR OUTNUMBER those that do!

Don't forget that armchair quarterback analysis is EASY after the fact BUT, can you do it in REAL TIME at the REAL, HARD MOVING edge at the Right?

Sorry if this offends you, Lee, but as I have posted many, many times, even the gurus on EW Theory, Prechter and Frost, cannot even agree on a wave count so what chance have you or I? Maybe you should go on the EW threads and see how long it takes before you disappear up your own chuff!

Finally, you know how I use EW so why not follow my 30+ years of experience?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,945
  • Sep 20, 2018 12:10pm Sep 20, 2018 12:10pm
GBPUSD H1 PASR Trend Trading 50 pips

Quoting fxrabbi
GBPUSD H1 PASR Trend Trading: Happy Trading, Yomi. {image}
Well done, Yomi. Nice to see just good, old fashioned PASR Trend Trading without any gimmicks.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,946
  • Sep 20, 2018 12:20pm Sep 20, 2018 12:20pm
EURUSD H1 PASR Trend Trading 50 pips

Quoting fxrabbi
EURUSD H1 PASR Trend Trading: Happy Trading, Yomi. {image}
And another 50 pips in the Bank!

Regarding your 1st trade, and I am sure you already know the reason, but this is for other students on The Path:

EURUSD H1 was in a sideways action so PASR Trend Trading should not be initiated until after RESOLUTION of my white line.

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Kudos to Yomi for recognising the error on the next candle in accordance with my ""IF TRADE IS WRONG - GET OUT!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,947
  • Edited 1:21pm Sep 20, 2018 12:40pm | Edited 1:21pm
GBPNZD M15

Quoting pippoacher
Let me try again. GBP NZD Short on break of the outside bar. tp at support, no 3 bar trailing ( my 'dynamic stop loss') {image}
Good - so Basic PASR

Why do you have a 2nd stop sell order at support? Are you wishing, hoping, thinking and praying, planning and dreaming (Dusty Springfield and The Merseybeats) PRICE will transition into a trend?

We trade the NOW, not what we THINK might happen in the FUTURE.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,948
  • Sep 20, 2018 12:50pm Sep 20, 2018 12:50pm
GBPJPY H1

Quoting landax
GBP/JPY The daily is bullish, I traced the resistances then I came down on H4 {image} H4: The price was stuck to the resistance 147.7 so I waited for the price to go down to the Strat shadow then I went down on H1 {image} H1: Bueb formed above the resistance I placed a buy stop which is triggered and then I took the profits before the resistance, maybe even a little early {image} 70 pips Thank you for quite your comments lately, I like seeing very much this active thread with all these graphs it really allows us to educate us, to question us and...
Very good but with experience of PASR Trend Trading with the Strat Shadow you could have entered earlier shown by my blue arrow

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I hope that Strat will make us successful traders

Neither I, or any other trader, can make YOU a ""successful trader".

Becoming a ""consistently successful and profitable trader" ALL comes down to YOU - not me, or anyone else.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,949
  • Sep 20, 2018 12:53pm Sep 20, 2018 12:53pm
Quoting strat
EURUSD H1 PASR Trend Trading 50 pips {quote} And another 50 pips in the Bank! Regarding your 1st trade, and I am sure you already know the reason, but this is for other students on The Path: EURUSD H1 was in a sideways action so PASR Trend Trading should not be initiated until after RESOLUTION of my white line. {image} Kudos to Yomi for recognising the error on the next candle in accordance with my ""IF TRADE IS WRONG - GET OUT!
I quickly close that first trades when I remember your saying "IF TRADE IS WRONG - GET OUT!

Thanks for your guidance here.
Time always comes before price
  • #6,950
  • Sep 20, 2018 1:53pm Sep 20, 2018 1:53pm
So whenever one see a doji on the Boss at S/R we should expect a reversal?
Attached Image
  • #6,951
  • Sep 20, 2018 2:57pm Sep 20, 2018 2:57pm
Quoting menek
So whenever one see a doji on the Boss at S/R we should expect a reversal? {image}
We can expect nothing - we monitor the boss and worker for signs of the reversal.

Hate to say this, but this type of question will not go down well.....
  • #6,952
  • Sep 20, 2018 3:07pm Sep 20, 2018 3:07pm
Strat, thanks for your comments!
I see, that I still have problems to see the trend correctly. Will work on that - and
practise with small lot size.
  • #6,953
  • Sep 20, 2018 5:59pm Sep 20, 2018 5:59pm
Quoting menek
So whenever one see a doji on the Boss at S/R we should expect a reversal? {image}
So whenever one see a doji on the Boss at S/R we should expect a reversal?

Were you smoking something before you posted such an idiotic and stupid comment?

If it was that easy, we would have all been $Gazillionaires years ago!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,954
  • Edited Sep 21, 2018 9:55am Sep 20, 2018 6:02pm | Edited Sep 21, 2018 9:55am
PASR

Quoting Malu
Strat, thanks for your comments! I see, that I still have problems to see the trend correctly. Will work on that - and practise with small lot size.
I see, that I still have problems to see the trend correctly

You are doing OK and are on track as you have only been on The Path for 1 year - still a couple more to go plus thousands of hours studying thousands of charts - but you will get there.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,955
  • Sep 20, 2018 6:38pm Sep 20, 2018 6:38pm
Quoting strat
AUDCAD {quote} huatzhi, you have received excellent comments from An Lie88 and Mhons so please take note of them. An Lie88 and Mhons - thank you for commenting and HELPING your fellow trader in the Spirit of this thread - TRADERS HELPING TRADERS. Just a few more comments: BB - Monthly Strong shooting star on March followed by last month big bearish bar showing strong bearish momentum. Current month is landing on the support. Dominant trend is still ranging as the price has not yet breaking the support/ranging low. Good, but you missed the most important...
Thanks Strat.

I had misunderstood that only closed candle should be used to decide the trade.

Here is what in my mind right now. We do not trade the opening candle that show us PASR as it could change. However, we do read momentum from opening candle on BB and B. When they are align, we should only be trading that direction. When they are not align, we should stay out of that pair for the moment. Am I understand it right?

Thanks Mhons and AnLie88 for the comment as well. I also found that I am weighted my analysis from the lower time frame too much after I re-read our discussion now.
  • #6,956
  • Sep 20, 2018 11:18pm Sep 20, 2018 11:18pm
Quoting strat
PASR {quote} I saw this trade as buying a pullback in an uptrend. How can it be in an UPTREND when ALL 3 time frames are AT RESISTANCE in HARMONY? Your trade is COUNTER TREND AGAINST current PRICE ACTION. Counter trend trading has the LOWEST probability of SUCCESS, so why trade it when there are other opportunities to trade WITH the trend? Do you like driving down the freeway on the wrong side facing six lanes of big rigs coming at you at 70mph?
Hello huatzhi..this is strat post i found in this thread..maybe can give some hindsight to you...
looks the same price is trending down but at support...so safer is waiting PA to long or waiting it breach past the support first before considering sell..

and thank you for your comment strat...really appreciate it..
  • #6,957
  • Sep 21, 2018 12:13am Sep 21, 2018 12:13am
EUR/USD a chart to watch ?

BIG BOSS

Last month hits a Hammer at BIG BOSS support zone. Now it looks trying to break long.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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BOSS.

Price looks like broke above the Strat Shadow resistance and downward trend line. Lets wait for weekly close to see whats happening.
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Worker
Price broke above downward resistance line (looks like this resistance there from (09/2017). But importantly it closed above strat shadow.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDmicroDaily.png Size: 50 KB



Verdict => eventhough all looks like Bullish lets wait to see price comes back and retest strat shadow (or retest the trend line) and gives us a PA candle.

Suranga
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #6,958
  • Sep 21, 2018 12:37am Sep 21, 2018 12:37am
Quoting strat
GBPNZD M15 {quote} Good - so Basic PASR Why do you have a 2nd stop sell order at support? Are you wishing, hoping, thinking and praying, planning and dreaming (Dusty Springfield and The Merseybeats) PRICE will transition into a trend? We trade the NOW, not what we THINK might happen in the FUTURE.
I am ashamed to say that was a pending order left dangling from last week, it triggered and I left it, closed it now at break even. I have bad bad habits, but am working on them.
  • #6,959
  • Sep 21, 2018 1:39am Sep 21, 2018 1:39am
Quoting Suran
EUR/USD a chart to watch ? BIG BOSS Last month hits a Hammer at BIG BOSS support zone. Now it looks trying to break long. {image} BOSS. Price looks like broke above the Strat Shadow resistance and downward trend line. Lets wait for weekly close to see whats happening. {image} Worker Price broke above downward resistance line (looks like this resistance there from (09/2017). But importantly it closed above strat shadow.{image} Verdict => eventhough all looks like Bullish lets wait to see price comes back and retest strat shadow (or retest the trend...
Hello Suran,
I have watched this pair for a long time, price is getting in harmony in all timeframes, I will wait till end of this week and "if" price in Boss will close above strat shadow I will look for retracement in worker to get better entry for cheaper PRICE, as STRAT mentioned in old thread if Boss PRICE closed above/below strat shadow, odds should be in our side, anyway Price action will show us the way.

Green pips.
  • #6,960
  • Sep 21, 2018 1:40am Sep 21, 2018 1:40am
Quoting strat
PASR {quote} I see, that I still have problems to see the trend correctly You are doing OK and are on track as you have only been on The Path for 1 year - still a couple more to go plus thousands of hours studying thousands of charts - but you will get there.
Thanks for the encouragement. And it is correct that 1 year is over soon. Crazy how time is running.
Looking back I have to say that I did learn a lot - we human beings tend to "see" more the negative things, but we also have to focus on our strengths and concentrate on that.
And I accepted that the path is a marathon - with all ups and downs!
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