Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

Hello Huatzi,
I am little bit confused, are you trading daily (worker) and you just went to H4 to fine tune your entry, or will you manage your positions in H4, because you are going against uptrend structure in H4 TF and Strat shadow borders act as dynamic S/R zone I would not go short in H4 until price shows Lower high at least and significantly close below Strat shadow, H4 obey daily TF but you still want all possibilitites on your side
And if you look at BB and Boss your trading into support zone, not much space and if you expect break this support it will not happen easy because it is really long term support

Thanks Rub, not watching is definitely a possible solution to make a change from M5 trading which is all about watching.

Thanks Samson, yes we are

Remember what strat keeps saying, it's only when the candle closes that's important!

EDIT: I'm still guilty of looking through the day, but I am getting better. Think it helps that I can trade the yen pairs pretty comfortably on 4hr because the close is convenient to my life.

GBP CAD

BB is in a downtrend. Hammer of last month ist supposed to be a bond hammer, so the BB is still on the way down.

B is still in a downtrend, too, although we are in an upswing at the moment. Trading this would be a countertrend-trade (in my opinion), which I am trying to avoid at the moment. Price closed two times close belowe the 72 EMA. So I would expect that the upswing could be over soon and price continues walking to the south again.

Worker: Price couldn't break the 72 EMA significantly. When price breaks 20 EMA I suppose that the downtrend continues. So the worker looks bnearish, too.

H4 is in a swing down at the moment. Would think about a small (first) short position when price closes below 200 EMA.

BB:


B:


Worker:


H4:


Comments welcome.
You have a successful day!

Ok, here's one that just hit my TP. For my time zone, trading the yen pairs on 4hr is quite doable, so when I saw the price action on boss I kept an eye out for entry. I targeted the most recent swing low/high above my entry as this trade seems very counter the big boss trend and I targeted the first resistance after my entry. Could go further, might reverse, either way it's another step further along the path.

EDIT: Where I marked that I moved the first entry to break even, I was away from the screen for the previous candle, so there's no entry there.

Very nice trade Rub.
I didn't see that one at all!
Expertly added on to as well.

Thanks for showing this. Good trade!
As I am not trading this pair, looking at your charts I would say that the B and the worker are still in a downtrend and your trade was a counter-trend trade in an upswing of the downtrend. Would that fit to your analysis?
Nevertheless: perfect timing and nice trade!

Absolutely fits my analysis, that's why I targeted the first resistance on boss. Given the support level, and the price action on the boss, it may well be the start of a new uptrend, but for where I am I'm happy with it.

Thanks. That helps to learn from each other. Your are right: greed is not a good advisor.
I agree it may (!) be the beginning of a new uptrend, but the Boss doesn't show this direction by now.

When I've had time in the last month I've been attempting to study Elliot Wave theory in an effort to help me get into fewer trades with a higher probability.
My idea is to have extra confluence and narrow down my focus by having an idea when price may turn as well as where it's likely to go.

Strat will probably tell me I'm overcomplicating the simplicity of PASR but there was a major change last month in the UK with margin regulations which has led me to concentrate more and take less trades.
This margin ruling has meant I could get into less trades (only around 1/4 of my usual) and last month I fell foul of the new rules by missing good opportunities and let the bad ones run so had a bad month as a consequence.

It's my fault for not managing it sooner but I'm proud of the fact I've picked myself up and refocused on what I can do about it.

To my mind having less margin is only a good thing really but does mean upping my game and being less cavalier with my entries.

Anyway to the point of my post (if there is one). While on my sunlounger on holiday I read my digital copy of Elliot Wave Theory while sipping my beer and peeking out of my sunglasses as the many scantily clad ladies round the pool. This made studying all the more difficult as you can imagine. At points my iPad actually turned off I got so distracted by the view.
Anyhow, Strat has mentioned Elliot Wave many times previously and while not the focus of PASR it's another string to add to the bow for confirmation of price action at support and resistance.

I'm happy with my timeframe now and with my basic PASR which is what I seem to have fallen into as my use of the strategy.

New rules means the need to adapt to the market so I've topped up my account but still am not able to put on the volume I could before.
Hence my plan is to look for A+ setups only in an attempt to increase my strike rate.

Not sure if its the right plan but lets see how it goes.

Elliot Wave I'm finding extremely complicated to both understand/remember all the rules/guidelines and also spot on charts and draw in. So many wave types of varying numbers but the basics are the impulse waves and corrective waves. You can draw a seemingly endless amount of waves and in different ways too. Ask me to put waves on a chart and then wipe it and ask me to do the same again 2 days later and I'd likely draw something slightly or radically different.
It's just a guide to entry and forecasting like any other toll in the toolbox and can be interpreted differently by different traders.
This is why we TRADE WHAT WE SEE and not what others tell us to.

Before anyone shoots me down for polluting the thread with non PASR related posts I'm still trading PASR. This is basic PASR based on key support and resistance but adding a little extra confirmation into the mix with Elliot. What I SEE as Elliot on MY charts anyway.

I'm looking only at one particular pattern of Elliot which is the 1,2,3,4,5 pattern and within that pattern ideally when wave 3 is complete.
Reason being the main impulse wave (3) is easy to spot on a chart as it's the largest wave and tends to stick out once it's complete. I'm using this to look for key resistance above the bottom of wave 3 which will be the start of wave 5 at turning point 4.
See, it all sounds overly complicated when you write it down as above but look at it on a chart and you'll see it's simple to spot wave 3s. It's also massively helping me set targets for my trades as if I'm right and Elliot plays out you know where price should go and how it should get there which is a massive confidence boost.
I'm finding it's helping the little people stay calm as I know where it should go and it's not going to go straight there in one go. There are little waves on the way.
Early days though and I'm still getting to grips with my understanding.

Over the weekend I went through 10 charts and attempted to draw in waves by stepping forward candle by candle. Most worked as expected and some didn't but on the whole it does give you more clarity on short term trends.
I'd be interested to compare with anyone else who uses Elliot Wave in their trading to help find PASR entries. Wonder if I'm on the right track identifying them.

See chart below which is a trade I took on Monday.
On the worker and boss this pair is horrible. Sideways action so no trend PASR trading to be had.
The trade I took on H1 which isn't my usual entry timeframe but I probably would have taken this 2 candles later on H4 anyway if I'd been awake and seen it.
I flicked to H1 to see how the Elliot wave looked closer in as I'm trying to get my head around the smaller waves within the bigger ones. the a,b,cs and zig zags etc. There I spotted the glaring 200MA price action candle. It's roughly around where the next wave SHOULD start IF the pair was going to follow WHAT I THOUGHT was Elliot Wave!
Lots of ifs and buts but we all need a reason to get in the market and trade so I took it.

As I entered on H1 I managed the trade on H1 and I'm now out. If I'd have taken it on H4 I'd still be in but that wasn't the plan so I'm missing a little profit possibly but I caught pretty much the whole wave anyway. I'm expecting a turnaround at my red support line anyway.





I'm not intending to post Elliot Wave analysis here as it's not what we're about but if Strat doesn't mind the odd few numbers on a chart I'm happy to keep sharing my thoughts on it as a means of spotting possible entry opportunities and adding more confluence to my trades. I think keeping an eye out for the big moves and the expected pullbacks for an entry makes a sound strategy for PASR.
The MAs, Strat shadow and recent S/R will all at some point be in confluence with a wave we can see but it's important it's a wave that WE SEE.

I've no idea if I've even drawn those waves in correctly and it worked out!
Now that really bakes your noodle!
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE AND TRADE THE PLAN.

EDIT:
P.S. Thats a juicy support level on H4 in case anyones thinking of a long opportunity.
Now if I was thinking Elliot Wave I'd be expecting an ABC after wave 5 which would be going in ???? direction.....

Hi An_Lie88,

This is what I see:
- 3 TF bearish checked
- Hammer on Bearish strat shadow checked
- 4H,
-- Still negative strat shadow (20 still below 72) means bearish is kind of still in charge
-- 72 ema gradient is not upward, maintaining horizontal
-- rejected the price 0.94 twice
-- then followed by a false break out that form a hammer, the wick get rejected by 0.9428 which was acted as swing low before
-- then followed by a BEEB long bar which push price back into strat shadow, also kind of showing the seller are still around rather that it is just taking profit

You got the point. However, when I trade I still see all the bearish momentum.

GBPUSD H1 PASR Trend Trading:




Happy Trading,
Yomi.

EUR CAD M5

Hi Mhons,

It is just fine tuning entry. I am EOD trader. I do not manage my trade on H4. Svolacius reminded me that SR is not a hard wall, it could be pierce until it is prove not by price action. The dominant trend of H4 is obviously down for me, though it is on an immediate uptrend. (Unless I am wrong, and I could be)

My second tranch does looking to see if it going for a big run. However, if there is any bullish PASR on daily chart around that area, I will close the trade. At most I will end up break even. These assume that I had hit my TP. If I am wrong, this is just another experience.

There is 2 things I don't like what I do right now when I look back my decision:
- RRR is only 1.2, I am still too unpatience to look for a better trade I think, need to work on that.

EURUSD H1 PASR Trend Trading:




Happy Trading,
Yomi.

Let me try again.
GBP NZD Short on break of the outside bar. tp at support, no 3 bar trailing ( my 'dynamic stop loss')

Hi Malu

Hopefully your patience kept you out of a short today! As Strat would probably say, the GBP pairs are all a bit jumpy right now due to Brexit and the clueless bickering negotiations between UK govt and EU. And as a denizen of the UK the newspapers over here are spilling so much bile I'm about ready to chin someone.

First off BB: Granted, a long term downswing - but have we come into the start of an upswing - we are forming HHs - maybe this is forming into a *gulp* cup&handle pattern. As you say, the reversal candle is a pretty sorry hammer, but it is sat at a fairly minor boss level in a chop zone. All I can say with any certainty is that price is in a chop zone, but most of the chop is boss levels.

B: I would agree the downtrend looks a little bit more established here than it does on the BB and we're coming up to a fairly big boss S/R level at around 1.7250.

W: Fairly robust test&retest of worker S/R at the levels it is currently trading at: ie 1.7125-1.7150 (red line on chart - which is the bid/ask)- I'm wondering what to make of it myself. Also note the lows on the boss and big boss were tested twice here - hence there might be quite a bit of indecision.

H4 has periscoped up since your last post.

My take would be to wait and see what happens at boss S/R level at around 1.7250 - if we break the boss level and the BB reversal candle is significant, or if current worker level holds and we see falls as per your analysis.

We can also wait 5 mins for the next Brexit newsflash. [Edit: forgot to add the worker chart)

Thanks for your comments. And no, I am not in the market for a short as I wanted to see H4 below 200 EMA (significantly). So as that did't happen, I did not act.
Regarding the GBP-pairs: your point is a fair one. Pretty choppy - as we can see at the moment.

GBP/JPY

The daily is bullish, I traced the resistances then I came down on H4



H4: The price was stuck to the resistance 147.7 so I waited for the price to go down to the Strat shadow then I went down on H1



H1: Bueb formed above the resistance I placed a buy stop which is triggered and then I took the profits before the resistance, maybe even a little early



70 pips

Thank you for quite your comments lately, I like seeing very much this active thread with all these graphs it really allows us to educate us, to question us and especially to progress I hope that Strat will make of us successful traders