Training Journal

4/9/2018
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USD once again takes center stage. Im a little surprised that asian markets have pared losses earlier in the day and looks to be ending positive given the relationship with USD at the moment.
Euro and Pound Sterling down, no major catalyst for the moves. Im not complaining anyways!

It do not seem likely that today present any trading opportunity for me. Shall take the day off from the markets!

5/9/2018
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Starting to wonder if I should hop on to the short EM trade. This trend does not seem like its going to end anytime soon!

11/9/2018
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DUDE! The recent contridiction in claims by politicians from both UK and EU's side over brexit is causing some hard volatilty!

I strongly suspect something is at play here! UK seems to want to talk up the probability of a brexit deal. But EU doesn't...

12/9/2018
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Im my view, the recent conflicting headlines and comments over brexit suggests a few things to me:

 

1. Both EU and UK seem to have different understanding as well as information regarding the negotiations. They are simply commenting from what they know. This suggests that negotiations are a mess and in my opinion, suggesting a higher risk of hard brexit or a hastily put together deal which may contain loopholes in policies, this pose as downside risks in the future.
2. The financial media are increasingly becoming sensitive to brexit related comments, and it looks like comments with seemingly negligible impact may have been exagerrated by headlining it. This presents both volatility and opportunity to us.
3. Alternatively, this could be a political power play between parties. Which means more volatility to come.

18/9/2018
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Lesser than expected tariffs from both US and China announced today. I suspect this leads to improved risk sentiment which is positive for risk assets such as equities and negative for safe haven (Notably USD).

Just created a new blog which focuses purely on algorithm forecasting. Currently it is limited to weekly forecast of EURUSD and S&P500. But I will be posting more and improving on the algorithms as I go. Will be posting the forecasts on that blog consistently. The predictions are not entirely accurate (Then again, no predictions can be 100% accurate) but it certainly looks promising!
Links in my bio if yall wanna check the blog out.

19/09/2018
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Inflation can be above expectations. But I think the major problem here is whether UK's economy is robust enough to witstand more aggressive rate hikes?
In my view, no. UK's economy is rather fragile from both economical and politcal angle.

Its okay, I shall take a hit today. For not following the simple rule of getting out fast. But I stick to my opinion that sub 1.3 is the target price for cable by year end

25/09/2018
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I have been busy working on predictive algorithms recently. And there seems to be some progress in my works.
Live forecasts for S&P500 would be that prices will reach 2912 handle. And the recent dropping of talks by China do lend some support to that predection.

As for EURUSD, my algorithm forecasts not much change by the end of the week. With the recent erratic behaviour in the USD, I would suggest staying out of trading the currency pair for now.

30/09/2018
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Weekly algorithm forecasts are out!

For S&P500, we are looking at potential for some relief rally towards 2917. The confidence that prices will hit that level is 80%
For EURUSD, a 95% confidence target will be 1.1603.
The newest addition is USDJPY. My algorithm forecasts with 90% confidence that prices will hit 113.4.

Do check out my blog for my algorithm predictions (Link in bio).