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The Swamp

  • #23,921
  • Sep 14, 2018 11:25pm Sep 14, 2018 11:25pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Todays very bearish move in London and NY sessions.. even though Japan is off sunday, EU will be very vulnerable to more downside move in Asia session since Asia usually follow suits of NY session, plus H1 downtrend started only 9 hours ago.. a fresh trend....it has time to run down more
maybe wait for 1669+
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #23,922
  • Sep 15, 2018 8:50am Sep 15, 2018 8:50am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} i am puzzling a bit. 1761 could happen. draw fib between 1301 to 1761 Then look at the mid.
is this crab correct? is so usdx is showing a usd drop added to the eu set up.. eu may bounce 1616, and it may still see 175x test.. It closed just a few pips from 1616. it may bounce within a few pips here. It wont take but a few pips to be proven wrong. at open spread will be larger. but it may be worth the 1616 ish touch to long..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #23,923
  • Edited 10:06am Sep 15, 2018 8:52am | Edited 10:06am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} hope not.. I am shorting this from the break of 1677...I want to see 200 or 300 pips down on this...that will be nice... of course, things may change if EUro inflation number has surprise to the upside on Monday night CPI reports..., then we may see 1.17 again.. otherwise.. this goes down to 1.15 without problem
of course maybe you are right.
4 hour candles look bearish.
i screwed myself out of my 1709 short.
I am hoping to hop on to at least 1584 where i should try to buy.
Next week pp = h + l + c / 3
since it closed in the middle it will be around this area.

I actually screwed myself over twice last week.
The other one was 1573. there is no way not to take this trade.
its the weekly pp and a norm.

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notice it only works when its not ranging but not all the time.
So when weekly pp's ar not working may be an indication of future ranging.
so i think the weekly pp will tell us which way it intends to go.


there could be a reciprocal close to 1584
The waves ideally should be the same duration and size for it to work.

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  • #23,924
  • Edited 10:14am Sep 15, 2018 9:32am | Edited 10:14am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} is this crab correct? is so usdx is showing a usd drop added to the eu set up.. eu may bounce 1616, and it may still see 175x test.. It closed just a few pips from 1616. it may bounce within a few pips here. It wont take but a few pips to be proven wrong. at open spread will be larger. but it may be worth the 1616 ish touch to long.. {image}
i am going to teach you.
You draw a fib over XA. X and A should be a a signifficant high and low. so not some point inside a wave
Same for B and C. it should be highs and lows, dont cheat.
In this case it got rejected by 61.8 fib at point B. then you look for a gartley (or crab if price = xa 161.8% extension).
Since the level got violated a bit and there is no abcd pattern i would not expect it to work well and it did not.

this is my dxy chart
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The ideal harmonic has:
Good rejection at point B.
an abcd pattern at point D.
But if there is no abcd pattern and C is at exactly 88.6 thats fine too.

these are D levels.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...63#post3692863
you are best of memorizing the levels. looking them up time after time is a pest.

For bearish butterly's, gartleys, bats and crabs/deep crabs C must be higher then A.
For bearish sharks and cyphers C must be lower then A.
  • #23,925
  • Sep 15, 2018 9:38am Sep 15, 2018 9:38am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} of course maybe you are right. 4 hour candles look bearish. i screwed myself out of my 1709 short. I am hoping to hop on to at least 1584 where i should try to buy. Next week pp = h + l + c / 3 since it closed in the middle it will be around this area. I actually screwed myself over twice last week. The other one was 1573. there is no way not to take this trade. its the weekly pp and a norm. {image} notice it only works when its not ranging but not all the time. So when weekly pp's ar not working may be an indication of future ranging. so...
thank you longshot for your analysis...I will check out weekly pp for trading...
for me, H1 downtrend with stop 1.1710 and H4 uptrend with stop 1.1558 last Friday.. ..it will be range trades till one stop given up... given daily and weekly are downtrend.. Euro tested daily supply zone 1.1694-1.1735 failed, it may go down to test daily demand zone next 1.1591-1.1523 to find support..
in case the intermediate zones fail to hold .. next daily supply zone 1.1749-1.1850 with active sellers. next daily demand zone 1.1344-1.13 with active buyers...
  • #23,926
  • Sep 15, 2018 9:44am Sep 15, 2018 9:44am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} thank you longshot for your analysis...I will check out weekly pp for trading... for me, H1 downtrend with stop 1.1710 and H4 uptrend with stop 1.1558 last Friday.. ..it will be range trades till one stop given up... given daily and weekly are downtrend.. Euro tested daily supply zone 1.1694-1.1735 failed, it may go down to test daily demand zone next 1.1591-1.1523 to find support.. in case the intermediate zones fail to hold .. next daily supply zone 1.1749-1.1850 with active sellers. next daily demand zone 1.1344-1.13 with active buyers...
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Self discipline It is a practice
  • #23,927
  • Sep 15, 2018 10:51am Sep 15, 2018 10:51am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} thank you longshot for your analysis...I will check out weekly pp for trading... for me, H1 downtrend with stop 1.1710 and H4 uptrend with stop 1.1558 last Friday.. ..it will be range trades till one stop given up... given daily and weekly are downtrend.. Euro tested daily supply zone 1.1694-1.1735 failed, it may go down to test daily demand zone next 1.1591-1.1523 to find support.. in case the intermediate zones fail to hold .. next daily supply zone 1.1749-1.1850 with active sellers. next daily demand zone 1.1344-1.13 with active buyers...
this is my trading plan on the daily, price could well go to wave 2.. 61.8 got confluence with previous high. but that is too long term for me.

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  • #23,928
  • Edited Sep 16, 2018 8:46am Sep 15, 2018 12:56pm | Edited Sep 16, 2018 8:46am
Grigori Perelman - the man who gives us the resolution of the Poincaré conjecture ...
Inserted Video

Question: Our sages say: “And there is not a thing that has not its place.” And so man too has his place. Then why do people sometimes feel so crowded?
Answer: Because each wants to occupy the place of the other...
I am who I am
  • #23,929
  • Edited 9:13am Sep 16, 2018 7:20am | Edited 9:13am
almost missed it.

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  • #23,930
  • Edited 9:08am Sep 16, 2018 8:52am | Edited 9:08am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} i am going to teach you. You draw a fib over XA. X and A should be a a signifficant high and low. so not some point inside a wave Same for B and C. it should be highs and lows, dont cheat. In this case it got rejected by 61.8 fib at point B. then you look for a gartley (or crab if price = xa 161.8% extension). Since the level got violated a bit and there is no abcd pattern i would not expect it to work well and it did not. this is my dxy chart {image} The ideal harmonic has: Good rejection at point B. an abcd pattern at point D. But if there...
Looking back into TLC's history.
Butterfly should have 78.6 as point B.
I think TLC called this a butterfly because of an abcd pattern. but it worked.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...34#post3552334

for this bat he picked some point inside a wave for X.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...12#post3730512





So i don't know all there is to know about harmonics.
  • #23,931
  • Sep 16, 2018 9:45am Sep 16, 2018 9:45am
Thinking of going short UY today
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #23,932
  • Sep 16, 2018 4:20pm Sep 16, 2018 4:20pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} looks like it could be worth a little shot with a tight stop.. TL 1 h 267 ema..30 min 534 ema white swan all intersect there.. 1617/25 the bounce has a decent shot.. {image}
i tried to get in 1620 today, but the wide spread stopped it..
possible bounce to 1669+.. the week did close higher than previous week and month. week closing cant rule out the 17xx tested.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #23,933
  • Sep 16, 2018 5:22pm Sep 16, 2018 5:22pm
pending Long 1618, risking 4 pips. 1615.6 lower end of my window.

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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #23,934
  • Sep 16, 2018 5:37pm Sep 16, 2018 5:37pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Thinking of going short UY today
thinking 112.14/22... I have a pending 112.20,, stop 10 pips..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #23,935
  • Sep 16, 2018 5:51pm Sep 16, 2018 5:51pm
EU well H4 is ready to have retracement guys. Buy short
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Profit growth tells you the trader ability.
  • #23,936
  • Sep 16, 2018 5:52pm Sep 16, 2018 5:52pm
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #23,937
  • Sep 16, 2018 6:19pm Sep 16, 2018 6:19pm
Eur/Usd: Key Target Levels For 9/17/2018,
( My 1H EA targets are in bold)

For Shorts: L1: 1.1593 L2:1.1565 L3: 1.1519

For Longs: L1: 1.1650 L2:1.1678 L3: 1.1724

Currently @6pm est
1H Downtrend stop : 1.1710;
4H Uptrend stop : 1.1558

Trading Strategy: Range trade / Short
  • #23,938
  • Sep 17, 2018 6:04am Sep 17, 2018 6:04am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} looks like it could be worth a little shot with a tight stop.. TL 1 h 267 ema..30 min 534 ema white swan all intersect there.. 1617/25 the bounce has a decent shot.. {image}
with the week ending and starting the spread didn't allow the entry. but 1669 looked to be minimal. since the week closed higher, it may be indicative of last weeks high tested.. the info does conflict.. because the month and day closed lower.

usdx seemed to have the level to drop. eu looked the opposite.. it is possible to test eu 1755.5 because other like setups as the one i used may not be completed. The closes have conflict.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #23,939
  • Sep 17, 2018 6:18am Sep 17, 2018 6:18am
Quoting gatorinla
pending Long 1618, risking 4 pips. 1615.6 lower end of my window. {image}
i over played my entry some. I was trying to have a minimal stop..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #23,940
  • Sep 17, 2018 6:22am Sep 17, 2018 6:22am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i over played my entry some. I was trying to have a minimal stop..
Hate it when that happens! I have 1.16179 as daily low
Focus.
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