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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #6,821
  • Sep 16, 2018 2:04am Sep 16, 2018 2:04am
Quoting Rufus
{quote} .... Personally... When I am taking positions with the Daily chart in a trending market, I don't call them target areas anymore. Tends to limit my thinking for the size of the move. I will call them Support or Resistance levels. Areas where PA may have problems getting through....

Thanks for the review Rufus, Regarding my target , I also think the same as you but my post tells something else. My initial target was there only to see if it gives me good R: R (as newbie trader this might be good isn't?) . I know Its better to give it a room to play unless it (PA) shows otherwise.

Thanks alot


Suranga
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #6,822
  • Edited 4:45am Sep 16, 2018 2:23am | Edited 4:45am
Quoting Suran
Me trying to participate and learn... AUD/USD - Basic PASR analysis Big boss - Long term trend Down, Short term trend down making LL and LH. {image} Boss - Trend down. Breaked the .71750 level . retest it and reject {image} Worker -Trend down , retest .71750 and gives BEEB {image} Next nearest target is at .70100 which gives 1:1.4 R:R How did I do ?
AUD/USD
I had the same perceprion and analysis on this pair too, but my only consideration is that the trend although still is showing potential to continue has started a long time ago (Feb 2018).
So to resume i will wait for monday's PA and if goes down of WCC open price i will evaluate as a confirmed continuation of trend wich will be the short singal
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  • #6,823
  • Sep 16, 2018 3:31am Sep 16, 2018 3:31am
Quoting Suran
Me trying to participate and learn... AUD/USD - Basic PASR analysis Big boss - Long term trend Down, Short term trend down making LL and LH. {image} Boss - Trend down. Breaked the .71750 level . retest it and reject {image} Worker -Trend down , retest .71750 and gives BEEB {image} Next nearest target is at .70100 which gives 1:1.4 R:R How did I do ?
Looks good to me. Your take profit is already fairly conservative but watch out of price action against the trade, this is a significant big boss level.
  • #6,824
  • Sep 16, 2018 4:20am Sep 16, 2018 4:20am
Quoting macuba
{quote} AUS/USD I had the same perceprion and analysis on this pair too, but my only consideration is that the trend although still is showing potential to continue has started a long time ago (Feb 2018). So to resume i will wait for monday's PA and if goes down of WCC open price i will evaluate as a confirmed continuation of trend wich will be the short singal {image}
What does PSAR on your chart mean? We do not use the PSAR indicator. If you mean Price Action at Support and Resistance, then write it correctly. You cannot trade a method or strategy without knowing the lingo, right?
  • #6,825
  • Sep 16, 2018 4:31am Sep 16, 2018 4:31am
I am also looking at AUD/USD and I am in since BEOB on 4th of September.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Rub is correct on the AUD/USD being on a Big Boss support level, so we need to watch out.
I am very cautious about this trade, as other AUD pairs have been moving in a much more predictable manner. See example below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Now that rejection at Strat Shadow and S/R looks like we could see another move south on AUD/USD but beware of the S/R levels we near now and below. Some really strong Big Boss and BRN levels that could stop this pair's decline. Let's see what PA shows us next week. I am going to be in New York and Washington for the next two weeks, so daily trading will feel different for me - instead of waiting for the candles to close at midnight my time, I'll now have to check them at 5PM NY time.

I won't be able to trade or post here much, so I will be looking forwards to talk to you again soon.
  • #6,826
  • Sep 16, 2018 4:47am Sep 16, 2018 4:47am
Quoting Svolacius
{quote} What does PSAR on your chart mean? We do not use the PSAR indicator. If you mean Price Action at Support and Resistance, then write it correctly. You cannot trade a method or strategy without knowing the lingo, right?
PASR corrected !!!
  • #6,827
  • Sep 16, 2018 6:31am Sep 16, 2018 6:31am
On my chart the AUD/USD really responds to support and resistance 0.71500 (The Big black Line)

Price is to support on Big Boss

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A resistance on Boss

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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and support on worker

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Even though it would seem like a good entry compared to the Strat shadow on worker, I don't think we should do anything until price has broken that support.
  • #6,828
  • Sep 16, 2018 8:04am Sep 16, 2018 8:04am
Quoting landax
On my chart the AUD/USD really responds to support and resistance 0.71500 (The Big black Line) Price is to support on Big Boss................... Even though it would seem like a good entry compared to the Strat shadow on worker, I don't think we should do anything until price has broken that support.
My argument for analysis is not only based on Strat Shadow on Worker. Its based on Price Action happening at the Boss. Am I wrong to assume price already broke .71500 and closed below the level in Boss. This is to me it showing its intention to go lower. Add to that.. it retraced back to that level rejected the higher prices and gives us BEEB (at Strat Shadow on worker).

I love this Strats University guys.

Suranga
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #6,829
  • Sep 16, 2018 11:57am Sep 16, 2018 11:57am
Quoting Rufus
{quote} EURAUD Hi Strat Programing my brain for this PA. In this chart. Hammer PA or is there too much interference with the nearby candles? {image}
Hi Rufus

It might have been mentioned already but I also see I great shooting star with empty space to the left on your chart...

Regards
Pete
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  • #6,830
  • Sep 16, 2018 12:40pm Sep 16, 2018 12:40pm
Quoting landax
On my chart the AUD/USD really responds to support and resistance 0.71500 (The Big black Line) Price is to support on Big Boss {image} A resistance on Boss {image} and support on worker {image} Even though it would seem like a good entry compared to the Strat shadow on worker, I don't think we should do anything until price has broken that support.
Hi landax

I think you are raising a very valid cautionary view of congesting support that needs to be navigated in the face of shorter term downward pressure...

Regards
Pete
  • #6,831
  • Sep 16, 2018 1:38pm Sep 16, 2018 1:38pm
Quoting Suran
{quote} My argument for analysis is not only based on Strat Shadow on Worker. Its based on Price Action happening at the Boss. Am I wrong to assume price already broke .71500 and closed below the level in Boss. This is to me it showing its intention to go lower. Add to that.. it retraced back to that level rejected the higher prices and gives us BEEB (at Strat Shadow on worker). I love this Strats University guys. Suranga
Hi Suran

I do not think your analysis is wrong. In fact, right now based on face value I am in agreement that south is the way to go (and I was all set to place a short on the worker) but landax is raising a very valid point about the congestion that needs to be navigated before we will be in safe trade currents.

That being said I also think we need to be considering Dr Joe, Blackeagle and especially Trogger within the framework of PASR... (trying to see beyond the candles)

 

  1. Dr Joe says - the trend ain't over until she turns around
  2. Blackeagles' Trend lines confirms what Dr Joe lived to do...
  3. PASR ties the above together with PA and importantly SR...
  4. Trogger I think would look at all this and think yes....all things considered .... price could go south .... but let's manage the risk....


So, Big Boss, Boss and Worker is in agreement...

  1. For an entry 4 Hour could work but still with a SL in the Worker range
  2. 1 Hour gets interesting... if one has the time to babysit, you could very well get a shorting opportunity with a low SL with very profitable returns on the higher frames...
  3. 15 min...probably where Trogger would look to nurture a low pip SL to immense returns on the Boss through the congestion pointed out by landax.

My view for what it is worth would be following what I think the Dr Joe, BlackEagle Trogger approach to PASR... (Below are milestones simplistically speaking)

  1. Follow the Trend
  2. Enter with the trend on as low a time frame as possible (multiple entries) to monitor taking into consideration personal commitments and availability to monitor and manage the trade.
  3. Lock in as soon as possible to get into a free trade
  4. Exit early on some to pacify little people...
  5. Add on when/ if PASR presents the opportunity and if not then so be it
  6. Personally, I think we are in the right space to start small short trades with no set limits which could grow into highly profitable medium to longer term trades. If it does not work out the losses are small but if it does work out the returns could be very satisfying indeed.

Sorry, this might be a bit of a waffle but then... how will I know if I am an not an ass unless I start braying...?

Regards
Pete

  • #6,832
  • Sep 16, 2018 3:32pm Sep 16, 2018 3:32pm
Quoting JCMPete
{quote} .......Sorry, this might be a bit of a waffle but then... how will I know if I am an not an ass unless I start braying...? Regards Pete
@Pete
Ha ha.. don't worry Pete...Your reply (also Rufus's and Landax's) values a lot. That's how we learn.

Next best thing to do is ...If in doubt stay out (as Landax points). I also thought about this congestion in the Big Boss chart. But given the PA at Boss I thought its might not be a problem.Many ways to see the market know?


Regards
Suranga
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #6,833
  • Sep 16, 2018 4:25pm Sep 16, 2018 4:25pm
Hi Strat and team

Going through my charts I found an inside candle I missed last week. Valid setup Strat? Still training my brain cell to not miss these things.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #6,834
  • Sep 16, 2018 5:01pm Sep 16, 2018 5:01pm
Quoting JCMPete
{quote} Hi Suran I do not think your analysis is wrong. In fact, right now based on face value I am in agreement that south is the way to go (and I was all set to place a short on the worker) but landax is raising a very valid point about the congestion that needs to be navigated before we will be in safe trade currents. That being said I also think we need to be considering Dr Joe, Blackeagle and especially Trogger within the framework of PASR... (trying to see beyond the candles) Dr Joe says - the trend ain't over until she turns around Blackeagles'...
Hi everyone
Just wanted to echo Suran - love this Strat university! At the same time, my analysis is eactly the same- that if BB is saying one direction, others WILL follow (according to what I've learnt here so far). I know PASR is the only relevant "force" considered here BUT current fiscal environment (with US rates likely to rise this month) is certainly going to be a contributing factor going forward. Thanks guys for a really useful, meaningful and educating discussion. .btw I have already dipped a toe in, as I have been trading the shorter TF on this pr.
I also love the simplicity of Dr Joe

  1. Dr Joe says - the trend ain't over until she turns around

Until I got to this thread, I had the same Q as Strat did "how do you know it's turned around?"

  • #6,835
  • Sep 17, 2018 3:32am Sep 17, 2018 3:32am
Quoting JCMPete
Good day All Paper trading while studying charts. Setup was on Worker but trade and exit on 4 hour chart. Regards Pete {image} {image} {image}
Dear JCMPete,

Can you share "PRICE MA COLOR FILL" indicator for FXCM Trading station, please?

Thank you very much,
NSN
  • #6,836
  • Sep 17, 2018 3:34am Sep 17, 2018 3:34am
Ok So I had a gap at work and decided to lift my skirt and post my trade.
It is a small trade on the 15min TF Eur/Usd.
Entry On the break of the bullish hammer, and Tp at the resistance from Friday.
Trade is still running so lets see. Risk Is slightly more than 2% , Reward to risk is 5/1.
Almost as good as the 10/1 I got on the boks thumping the All Blacks.. Trogger if you there mate....
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  • #6,837
  • Sep 17, 2018 4:08am Sep 17, 2018 4:08am
Quoting pippoacher
Ok So I had a gap at work and decided to lift my skirt and post my trade. It is a small trade on the 15min TF Eur/Usd. Entry On the break of the bullish hammer, and Tp at the resistance from Friday. Trade is still running so lets see. Risk Is slightly more than 2% , Reward to risk is 5/1. Almost as good as the 10/1 I got on the boks thumping the All Blacks.. Trogger if you there mate.... {image}
I'm not really up to scratch on lower time frames, but it's looking like there might be trouble in the wobble area just to the left of where price is in your screenshot. If it can get past that you may well be golden. Watch and see what price action develops here.
  • #6,838
  • Edited 5:36am Sep 17, 2018 4:18am | Edited 5:36am
Quoting Rub
{quote} I'm not really up to scratch on lower time frames, but it's looking like there might be trouble in the wobble area just to the left of where price is in your screenshot. If it can get past that you may well be golden. Watch and see what price action develops here.
Its wobbling and consolidating in that exact area right now.
I need to train my eyes to see less congested areas of s/r and take them into account, I often overlook this but am improving.
  • #6,839
  • Sep 17, 2018 10:45am Sep 17, 2018 10:45am
EURJPY

Quoting windofmarch
Trading 4h chart. On eur / jpy, on the weekly ,he formed a bueb / buob, even if not a swing low. I'm thinking of entering on 4h chart, if there is PA. {image}
Suggest you re-visit what PASR is again:

PRICE can do 3 things at SR:

NOTHING - go sideways in a range/consolidation
CLOSE below it
CLOSE above it

Until that happens, we PATIENTLY WAIT.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,840
  • Sep 17, 2018 10:57am Sep 17, 2018 10:57am
AUDNZD & GBPNZD

Quoting brian661
Weekly report This week just enter two trade, but no profit is taken. AUDZND H4 A retest of resistance at the resistance area, where it formed a long shooting start at the last swing. entered at the small shooting start at the blue arrow. {image} GBPNZD H4 A strong bullish candle broke the weekly resistance at the beginning of the week. Waiting for the PA at support or Strat shadow and finally entered at the blue arrow. {image} While I found myself buying and selling NZD, although both are in profit, am I doing a mistake?
Please heed the valuable comments given by BTS and Rub.

Repeating Rub's comment:

but why such a big stop loss on GBP/NZD? Why not below the giant hammer looking beast 5 candles left of your entry?

Correct placement of your Stop Loss improves your R:R

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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