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The Swamp

  • #23,901
  • Sep 14, 2018 11:46am Sep 14, 2018 11:46am
Wow... just came back to this. I got stopped -20 from 1.1645...

if close below 1.16 then I will re assess
  • #23,902
  • Sep 14, 2018 12:01pm Sep 14, 2018 12:01pm
Quoting Boulder
Eur/Usd: Key Target Levels For 9/14/2018, ( My 1H EA targets are in bold) For Shorts: L1: 1.1662 L2:1.1636 L3: 1.1594 For Longs: L1: 1.1713 L2:1.1738 L3: 1.1780 Currently @11pm est 1H Uptrend stop : 1.1616; 4H Uptrend stop : 1.1557 Trading Strategy: Long
For shorts.. Tp2 1636 reached...
  • #23,903
  • Sep 14, 2018 1:30pm Sep 14, 2018 1:30pm
116.23 achieved......................
  • #23,904
  • Sep 14, 2018 2:17pm Sep 14, 2018 2:17pm
What an ugly picture ... flat EMA233 at 1.16323 and a lot of LDN Open and LDN Close very close to the flat EMA233 ... today LDN Close at 1.16354 ...
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I am who I am
  • #23,905
  • Sep 14, 2018 2:23pm Sep 14, 2018 2:23pm
Quoting gatorinla
I closed.. week looks to close higher with 4 minutes.. the day lower than previous, but above month and last weeks close.. another shot at 174x scares me.. right or wrong.. I will see what happens next week..
the wave down seems to have been an impulse wave.
retrace to price area of wave 2 is normal.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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gu may retrace to 3120
  • #23,906
  • Edited 2:52pm Sep 14, 2018 2:41pm | Edited 2:52pm
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} gu may retrace to 3120
GBP/USD will reach 1.3280 till the end of the month ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I am who I am
  • #23,907
  • Edited 3:10pm Sep 14, 2018 3:00pm | Edited 3:10pm
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} the wave down seems to have been an impulse wave. retrace to price area of wave 2 is normal. {image} gu may retrace to 3120
hope not.. I am shorting this from the break of 1677...I want to see 200 or 300 pips down on this...that will be nice...
of course, things may change if EUro inflation number has surprise to the upside on Monday night CPI reports..., then we may see 1.17 again.. otherwise.. this goes down to 1.15 without problem
  • #23,908
  • Sep 14, 2018 3:50pm Sep 14, 2018 3:50pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} yep got that marked.
Ah I let this one slip, had an entry an 17 and 20 and closed both out for +15 each
  • #23,909
  • Sep 14, 2018 3:55pm Sep 14, 2018 3:55pm
How Institutions Position Themselves In Euro/Usd This Week

This week, institutions increased net longs 2 weeks in a row , which was shown in the latest COT as of Tuesday, Sept 11, 2018.

The institutions net long Euro positions increased last week by 3,207 contracts to positive 11,170 contracts,

8,690 long positions were closed, and 11,903 short positions were closed as well. Now Longs total 164,639 contracts vs shorts total 153,4692 contracts .

52% long exposure vs 48% short exposure, which 1% increased in longs and 1% decreased in shorts from the previous week

During COT week, Euro started at 1.15807, rallied to 1.1658 high, started its sale off , hit 1.1526 low, closed at 1.1604

Price came to test H4 demand zone 1.1530s area. Large orders of shorts were covered, which helped to push up the price ,
Once price move up to 1.1650s area, they started to unwind their longs

In spite of Euro the recent moving up, I see institutions are still lack of buying interest, the move ups are more done by shortcovering, not by longs purchase
Actually every move up, I see they use the opportunity to unwind their longs.

Institutions Sentiment: Less Bearish

Please note institutions take weeks and months to build a position in the currency market.
Therefore, the bearish sentiment is more for a long term outlook, not intended for short term trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #23,910
  • Sep 14, 2018 5:48pm Sep 14, 2018 5:48pm
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} the wave down seems to have been an impulse wave. retrace to price area of wave 2 is normal. {image} gu may retrace to 3120
Possible scenario (EU H1)
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A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #23,911
  • Sep 14, 2018 5:49pm Sep 14, 2018 5:49pm
Quoting gatorinla
I closed.. week looks to close higher with 4 minutes.. the day lower than previous, but above month and last weeks close.. another shot at 174x scares me.. right or wrong.. I will see what happens next week..
needless to say, I was sorry I closed. bird in the hand..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #23,912
  • Sep 14, 2018 5:59pm Sep 14, 2018 5:59pm
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} the wave down seems to have been an impulse wave. retrace to price area of wave 2 is normal. {image} gu may retrace to 3120
i saw it may bounce 1628/ or 47,.. the month closed lower and the week above it higher.. I thought may retrace before lower next week.. So i closes 1660ish after L looked to be stuck between week/month and the day close,.. I can see it bouncing back towards Fridays high and maybe test 17xx...since the week was higher. both the week and day closed above the month.. Of course it may go straight to 1516.. I will try to look for and opening next week.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #23,913
  • Sep 14, 2018 6:15pm Sep 14, 2018 6:15pm
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} Possible scenario (EU H1) {image}
Just a little fixing ...
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I am who I am
  • #23,914
  • Edited 8:57pm Sep 14, 2018 8:46pm | Edited 8:57pm
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} the wave down seems to have been an impulse wave. retrace to price area of wave 2 is normal. {image} gu may retrace to 3120
i see it.. 1617/25 may be a bounce window,, I was going to say for 1669.. but maybe your 1703 too.. maybe i get a little long in Sunday early.. I dont have to risk but a few for 40 or 75.. is the drop at 1740 still valid? white swan?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #23,915
  • Sep 14, 2018 8:50pm Sep 14, 2018 8:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i saw it may bounce 1628/ or 47,.. the month closed lower and the week above it higher.. I thought may retrace before lower next week.. So i closes 1660ish after L looked to be stuck between week/month and the day close,.. I can see it bouncing back towards Fridays high and maybe test 17xx...since the week was higher. both the week and day closed above the month.. Of course it may go straight to 1516.. I will try to look for and opening next week.
edit,, 1623
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #23,916
  • Edited 9:22pm Sep 14, 2018 9:10pm | Edited 9:22pm
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} the wave down seems to have been an impulse wave. retrace to price area of wave 2 is normal. {image} gu may retrace to 3120
looks like it could be worth a little shot with a tight stop..
TL
1 h 267 ema..30 min 534 ema
white swan
all intersect there.. 1617/25
the bounce has a decent shot..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #23,917
  • Sep 14, 2018 9:35pm Sep 14, 2018 9:35pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i saw it may bounce 1628/ or 47,.. the month closed lower and the week above it higher.. I thought may retrace before lower next week.. So i closes 1660ish after L looked to be stuck between week/month and the day close,.. I can see it bouncing back towards Fridays high and maybe test 17xx...since the week was higher. both the week and day closed above the month.. Of course it may go straight to 1516.. I will try to look for and opening next week.
i am puzzling a bit.
1761 could happen.
draw fib between 1301 to 1761
Then look at the mid.
  • #23,918
  • Sep 14, 2018 9:56pm Sep 14, 2018 9:56pm
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} i am puzzling a bit. 1761 could happen. draw fib between 1301 to 1761 Then look at the mid.
last week i mentioned 1631..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #23,919
  • Sep 14, 2018 10:04pm Sep 14, 2018 10:04pm
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} i am puzzling a bit. 1761 could happen. draw fib between 1301 to 1761 Then look at the mid.
X2 is 1325
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #23,920
  • Sep 14, 2018 10:11pm Sep 14, 2018 10:11pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} looks like it could be worth a little shot with a tight stop.. TL 1 h 267 ema..30 min 534 ema white swan all intersect there.. 1617/25 the bounce has a decent shot.. {image}
Todays very bearish move in London and NY sessions.. even though Japan is off sunday, EU will be very vulnerable to more downside move in Asia session since Asia usually follow suits of NY session, plus H1 downtrend started only 9 hours ago.. a fresh trend....it has time to run down more
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