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  • #921
  • Sep 12, 2018 4:08am Sep 12, 2018 4:08am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} GU [M5] {image} Blue box is an ideal zone for looking to go long. But its about 25 pips below current price and that's giving up too many pips waiting for an entry. Option might be to drop the lot size slightly and attempt a short. Then hit a long entry IF price comes into the zone. Note the 1.30 handle in confluence with the 78.6 - 88.6 Fibs and the strong bullish push at this level earlier today, I like this type of setup. Also looking at several other pairs so I might trade any pair at any time. ps. If price continues up the chart from...
GU [M5]

Price starting to move down but I've got to leave the screen for about 10 minutes so no short entry for me at this time.

Perhaps someone else can find a short in here somewhere.

When I get back I'm hoping to see the cable bouncing around near the 1.30 handle, if so I'll be looking to long it for a handful of pips.

Be warned though, plenty can happen in 10 minutes in this business.

Half the trouble is the time it takes to post this information to the thread in a timely manner.

Masterrmind................
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #922
  • Sep 12, 2018 4:36am Sep 12, 2018 4:36am
Quoting OAPDave
All pairs are not the same I find 13 pips is better, if a slightly biggerr risk on some other , just try it to see what is comfortable to yourself, I will talk about other time-frames later {image}
MTTTM Fast in fast out.

Interesting.

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #923
  • Sep 12, 2018 6:41am Sep 12, 2018 6:41am
Quoting OAPDave
Update, well we have had around 62 pips of range now check out the Murrey chart {image} {image}
Yes GU made a rather aggressive U-turn and headed down the chart, now under the 1.30 handle.

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #924
  • Sep 12, 2018 8:19am Sep 12, 2018 8:19am
Quoting OAPDave
{image}
Fair bit of news trickling through on USD so price is a little erratic at the moment.

I will try to nail one trade though.

Masterrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #925
  • Sep 13, 2018 2:55am Sep 13, 2018 2:55am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} Fair bit of news trickling through on USD so price is a little erratic at the moment. I will try to nail one trade though. Masterrmind..............
Took a short on the EU pair and allowed it to run through the night.

Still in DD at the current time.

Masterrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #926
  • Sep 13, 2018 6:37am Sep 13, 2018 6:37am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} As always thank you for adding the finer detail, just do not know why yours or Masterrminds threads do not get better support, as in my humble opinion you are both top guys with plenty to offer us FX trainees
Because we do not provide the RED and Green Buttons !

Masterrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #927
  • Edited 2:59pm Sep 15, 2018 2:31pm | Edited 2:59pm
Masterrmind
I have just noticed some cunning tweak's you have made to your Octave Settings and the Addition of more use of ADR , to be honest I think it makes a little more interesting to use a 2 day grid and looking at my GU chart it as tremendous potential for accurate scalping, taking level to level moves and watching the range expand , to me this is a great help with the new ESMA rules as it only requires I guess about a 15 pip ish stop for a 1;1 risk reward trade, after say good work.
I have enclosed my GU chart with your setting, looks very good, as I trade very similar but have my own way to actually enter a trade I always use either a 15 or 30 pip grid
ps my Open will be slightly different as its the UK
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM5.png Size: 75 KB
  • #928
  • Sep 15, 2018 11:13pm Sep 15, 2018 11:13pm
Quoting OAPDave
Masterrmind I have just noticed some cunning tweak's you have made to your Octave Settings and the Addition of more use of ADR , to be honest I think it makes a little more interesting to use a 2 day grid and looking at my GU chart it as tremendous potential for accurate scalping, taking level to level moves and watching the range expand , to me this is a great help with the new ESMA rules as it only requires I guess about a 15 pip ish stop for a 1;1 risk reward trade, after say good work. I have enclosed my GU chart with your setting, looks very...
You are right with the 15 to 30 pip octive gap seams like a reasonable target to try and hit on an intraday scale.

2 days is only a first pass, some pairs might need more days of data.

Created a custom Candle Range indicator
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 46 KB

I will look over the ADR values shown in red color at the bottom of the GProMML settings leftside.

Might be better to have an ADR% range remaning for the rest of the current day, show pips and % already covered etc.

Note that the MML Grid is shown starting at commencement of day however, the MML levels are calculated on the P value shown to the left which in this case is 574 bars which is about 2 days of price data on an M5 TF.

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #929
  • Sep 16, 2018 12:59am Sep 16, 2018 12:59am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} You are right with the 15 to 30 pip octive gap seams like a reasonable target to try and hit on an intraday scale. 2 days is only a first pass, some pairs might need more days of data. Created a custom Candle Range indicator {image} I will look over the ADR values shown in red color at the bottom of the GProMML settings leftside. Might be better to have an ADR% range remaning for the rest of the current day, show pips and % already covered etc. Note that the MML Grid is shown starting at commencement of day however, the MML levels are calculated...
Basic ADR data added
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 49 KB

Will remove some of the ADR info under the MML Panel later and tidy up the display.

Time permitting I may add in an ADR scale on the right side to show active and completed ADR progress.

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #930
  • Sep 16, 2018 5:40am Sep 16, 2018 5:40am
Quoting OAPDave
I have made a observation of the Break of 3 Octaves from the Open, now making further checks to compare different platforms Opens and also with your 576 the Octaves will not all be 15 pips for each pair {image} {image} {image} {image}
OAPDave, note the Commonality - Price Action behaviour between EURUSD and GBPUSD

Commonality is a "hurstian" concept which could be deepened to understand Index behaviour and manage Portfolios
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COMMONALITY EURUSD GBPUSD 1.png Size: 62 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: COMMONALITY EURUSD GBPUSD 2.png Size: 67 KB
  • #931
  • Sep 16, 2018 5:55am Sep 16, 2018 5:55am
Quoting OAPDave
I have made a observation of the Break of 3 Octaves from the Open, now making further checks to compare different platforms Opens and also with your 576 the Octaves will not all be 15 pips for each pair {image} {image} {image} {image}
Same comparison with USDCAD and AUDUSD
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COMMONALITY AUDUSD.png Size: 61 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: COMMONALITY USDCAD.png Size: 56 KB
  • #932
  • Edited 6:16am Sep 16, 2018 5:59am | Edited 6:16am
compare all patterns above with the Fractal of Chaos !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FRACTAL OF CHAOS 2.png Size: 22 KB
  • #933
  • Sep 16, 2018 8:17am Sep 16, 2018 8:17am
Quoting OAPDave
Alain are you saying in my terminology your looking at a Breakout of a congestion area, if so, I was taught that price comes out the same way it goes in ?
Dave it is a good question

a) note that you can observe
- a "positive" correlation for EUR / USD and GBP /USD
- a "negative" correlation for USD / CAD and AUD / USD

it would be interesting to check with CAD / USD pair and USD / AUD pair

b) your terminology of congestion area is the exact one

Wyckoff uses Accumulation and Distribution but you can only define the term after the fact Up or Down. Obviously you can guess, have a feeling , an opinion on the direction of the Trend, but you need to use other tools for that.

c) to estimate the probability of a breakout of a Congestion Area - cycles are useful to forecast an estimated time zone.

to forecast the direction of the breakout cycles and derivated tools are also useful - VTL, Underlying trend, Centered Moving Averages crossings () , FLD's
  • #934
  • Sep 18, 2018 9:24pm Sep 18, 2018 9:24pm
Thank you Mastermind for this Beautiful Trading system and Everything else!

Jeff
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_1022 Sep. 18 20.22.jpg Size: 185 KB
Happily Married to MY College Sweet Heart!
  • #935
  • Sep 19, 2018 1:49am Sep 19, 2018 1:49am
Quoting Jeff59FX
Thank you Mastermind for this Beautiful Trading system and Everything else! Jeff {image}
You are most welcome.

The key is to choose pairs wisely including their respective directions and always search for ways that might improve the return over time.

Good trading,

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #936
  • Sep 24, 2018 10:06am Sep 24, 2018 10:06am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} You are most welcome. The key is to choose pairs wisely including their respective directions and always search for ways that might improve the return over time. Good trading, Masterrmind............
Thank you MasterMind,
Does the WARNING about the Octive Gap means that the price will go down?

Thank you so much for your Insight...

Jeff
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_1027 Sep. 24 09.01.jpg Size: 205 KB
Happily Married to MY College Sweet Heart!
  • #937
  • Sep 24, 2018 10:15am Sep 24, 2018 10:15am
Quoting Jeff59FX
{quote} Thank you MasterMind, Does the WARNING about the Octive Gap means that the price will go down? Thank you so much for your Insight... Jeff {image}
No unfortunately not.

It is a simple alert that allows a trader to monitor octive gap pips.

If you set the warning level to 30 pips in the indi settings then an alert will activate in the case where your octive gap is only 15.3 pips.

It does not have anything to do with direction.

To deactivate simply set == False OR modify the minimum alert level as you wish.

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #938
  • Sep 24, 2018 10:59am Sep 24, 2018 10:59am
Thank you MasterMind for that information

Jeff
Happily Married to MY College Sweet Heart!
  • #939
  • Oct 7, 2018 10:43pm Oct 7, 2018 10:43pm
Next cycle started on the MTTTM-Test 2 Lev25 demo test account.

Equity curve now started to head up.

Risk per trade increased by 0.2% making each trades risk 1.2%.

Only 3 pairs (TS Order 1) are traded on this account EU, GU and EG due mainly to lower start capital of 3K and only maximum of 25:1 leverage.

Start Risk set at 1% per trade (3% over all 3 trades if all active)
Lot step on a net positive cycle is set at +0.2%
Lot step on a net negative cycle is set at -0.4%
Max Risk set at 5% per trade (15% over all 3 trades if all active)

The progress of net cycle gains will dictate what risk per trade is applied on the next cycle of trades.

Clearly the motivation here is to produce net positive cycles of trades and reach Max risk per trade level as this translates into a favorable ECurve.

The drawback to this approach is the timing of a losing cycle of trades closer to the Max risk per trade level creating a 'deep' pullback in the ECurve.

Lets see if we can at least get to 5% risk per trade in the first place noting that on each consecutive net positive cycle of trades the next cycle only increases by 0.2% and any losing cycle will rip 0.4% away from the risk per trade value applied.

Example:

ALL WINNING CYCLES
Start risk per trade = 1%

Cycle 1 @ 1.0% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 2 @ 1.2% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 3 @ 1.4% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 4 @ 1.6% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 5 @ 1.8% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 6 @ 2.0% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 7 @ 2.2% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 8 @ 2.4% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 9 @ 2.6% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 10 @ 2.8% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 11 @ 3.0% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 12@ 3.2% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 13 @ 3.4% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 14 @ 3.6% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 15 @ 3.8% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 16 @ 4.0% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 17 @ 4.2% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 18 @ 4.4% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 19 @ 4.6% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 20 @ 4.8% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 21 @ 5.0% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0% (Max risk per trade reached!)

MTTTM-Test 2 Lev25 demo account cycle progress to date:

Cycle 1 @ 1.0% Outcome was a loss; next cycle - 0.4%
Cycle 2 @ 0.6% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 3 @ 0.8% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 4 @ 1.0% Outcome was a win; next cycle + 0.2%
Cycle 5 @ 1.2% Outcome ....... pending ........

If no loss had occurred on the first cycle the current risk per trade would have been at 1.8% instead of 1.2%.

This means that risk per trade now lags behing the 'perfect winning model' by 3 net positive cycles and this will remain the case provided all future cycles are now all winners.

Which is unlikely based on an historical analysis of the typical flow of cycle outcomes (Win Vs Loss ratio analysis).

The bottom line is that its not easy hitting the 5% risk per trade level but if reached it shows that the MTTTM system should be able to handle it.
Although you would need to consider the flow of cycle wins versus cycle losses beyond the first 5% level and how cycle outcomes unfold noting that 5% is the Max level and all future cycles will be at this level until a losing cycle occurs then its a drop to 4.6% (-0.4% step).

A word of caution:

It is one thing to hit the 5% Max risk per trade level but the impact of a losing cycle will be felt rather hard if on multiple cycles a trades full target has not been hit such as when trades are cut short for relatively smaller profit.

Some trades will need to be cut short but you need to keep track of this over the longer term or a loss at a higher risk per trade level will hurt more.

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #940
  • Oct 12, 2018 11:01am Oct 12, 2018 11:01am
Gentlemen (and ladies I presume . . .)

I am in the midst of considerable reading over Mr. Murrey, his Math Lines and associated ideas. I have browsed these things before but not in sufficient depth to get things to stick for me.

That was then, this is now.

Perhaps Rosetta Stone is (much) too strong but MML related ideas do seem to explain price behavior and action, and even suggest future movement, more than reasonably well.

Certainly the insiders will throw assorted surprises and, as parisboy suggests, we would all need to accept periodic modest losses as they do. Of course, and fair enough.

I am simultaneously looking over the several (dead as well as very alive) forums to harvest useful knowledge but expect and hope to be a participant here primarily, although I am not especially comfortable with TFs under 60.

Let me just start off with a hearty 'thank you' to Masterrmind for sharing so much and to OAPDave and parisboy for your regular contributions.

I am kind of at a place where I am asking myself why many more are not here, but Forex Factory is a large emporium offering many products (of dubious value) and all attract some.

I wish a wonderful weekend to all. The learning continues.

With very best regards, FS
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