Swing Trading on Gold and FX

update 0258EST:
a sharp drop down and this news could be the reason.

Source: TheSun.co.uk

update 0303EST:
it was a news published earlier.
Reuters re posted it and received more feedback.

9/12/2018 session3 recap:
ugly chart, exit position.

9/13/2018 session3:
Euro Pre-trading check:
1) News, supporting (US-China Trade Talk, Moody's Dollar comment, Italy budget)
2) Economic data, neutral (0700EST GBP Rate, 0830EST ECB Conference, 0830EST US CPI)
3) Scoreboard, neutral
4) CandleBar, depressing
5) RedBox and RedCloud, supporting
6) SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min), supporting
Conclusion: Long bias

Adaptive Strategy: Long (short-term holding)

today there are many events and economic indicators.
to play safe i will only hold short term (max 2 hours) position.

9/13/2018 session3 recap:
a whole day move was concentrated in 30 mins.
stop loss today during the U.K. session.

9/14/2018 session3:
Euro Pre-trading check:
1) News, supporting (Bad U.S. CPI, Abe QE comment, Italy budget, Irish boarder - Brexit, 200bn tariff, when?)
2) Economic data, neutral (0600EST BOE Carney speaks, 0830EST U.S. retail sales)
3) Scoreboard, supporting
4) CandleBar, supporting
5) RedBox and RedCloud, supporting
6) SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min), supporting
Conclusion: Long bias

Adaptive Strategy: Long (short-term holding)

9/14/2018 session3 recap:
totally wrong on the direction.
stopped loss before it entered red box zone.

9/17/2018 session3:
Euro Pre-trading check:
1) News, depressing (200bn tariff possibly today, trade talk)
2) Economic data, neutral (0500EST EU CPI)
3) Scoreboard, depressing
4) CandleBar, neutral
5) RedBox and RedCloud, supporting
6) SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min), depressing
Conclusion: Long and Short

Adaptive Strategy: Long + Short

its been two consecutive days of loss, so today will be trading more carefully.

9/17/2018 session3 recap:
the trading set was completed well.



9/18/2018 session3:
Euro Pre-trading check:
1) News, depressing (200bn tariff 10%, trade talk, good mood on Brexit)
2) Economic data, neutral (0315EST Drahi speaks)
3) Scoreboard, neutral
4) CandleBar, supporting
5) RedBox and RedCloud, depressing
6) SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min), supporting
7) Fibonacci and ABCD, depressing
Conclusion: Short

Adaptive Strategy: Short

9/18/2018 session3 recap:
stopped out for first two times.
the third try did well as there was a good move more than 30pips.

9/19/2018 session3:
yesterday was a choppy day, managed to breakeven after several stop-loss.


9/20/2018 session3:
Euro Pre-trading checklist:
1) News, supporting (NAFTA, EU Austria summit immigration problems, bad mood on Brexit backstop proposal, good mood on trade war)
2) Economic data, supportive, (expected good 0430EST UK Retail Sales, 0830 Philly Manufacturing)
3) Scoreboard, supporting
4) CandleBar, neutral
5) RedBox and RedCloud, supporting
6) SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min), supporting
7) Fibonacci and ABCD, N/A
8) .DXY, to be confirmed

Decision points: 1), 5), 6)
Conclusion: Long
Adaptive Strategy: Long

update 0431 EST:
this good UK retail sales data will probably lift Sterling, and Euro as well.

9/19/2018 session3 recap:
exit most of position.
.DXY had broke the 94.4 support which could be a bullish round for major currencies in the second half of September.

update 1110 EST:

DXY bullish????

DXY continued to drop further

hi RondaRousey,

it was the problem of my grammar, what i tried to mean was that:
.DXY had broke the 94.4 support, (and the drop of .DXY) could lead a bullish run for (other) major currencies (like Euro, Sterling).
then it makes sense.

9/21/2018 session3:
Euro Pre-trading checklist:
1) News, mixed (SP raises Australia rating, bad mood on Chequers plan, good mood on trade war, )
2) Economic data, neutral, (expected bad 0400EST EU Flash PMI)
3) Scoreboard, supporting
4) CandleBar, supporting
5) RedBox and RedCloud, supporting
6) SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min), supporting
7) Fibonacci and ABCD, depressing
8) .DXY, depressing

Decision points: 1), 7), 8)
Conclusion: Short
Adaptive Strategy: Short

forget the statistics for now.
front page of FT today suggested that obviously big boys did not favor a strong Sterling.
this will drag Euro down as well.

plus the U.S.-China tariff will effective next Monday, risk aversion capital will flow to U.S. Dollar.



Source: Reuters, FT.com

9/21/2018 session3 recap:
price went down and flatted all the positions.

9/24/2018 session3:
Euro Pre-trading checklist:
1) News, depressing (Italy budget, second Brexit referendum, trade war escalates)
2) Economic data, neutral, (0900EST Draghi speaks)
3) Scoreboard, depressing
4) CandleBar, neutral
5) RedBox and RedCloud, depressing
6) SMA(20, 30min) and SMA(50, 30min), N/A
7) Fibonacci and ABCD, depressing (38.2%)
8) .DXY, supporting

Decision points: 1), 5), 7)
Conclusion: Short

Adaptive Strategy: Short after DXY confirmed

9/24/2018 session3 recap:
price boosted at 0900EST Draghi speaking.
my profit disappeared immediately and auto-stop made me break even for the day.