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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #6,681
  • Sep 7, 2018 1:02pm Sep 7, 2018 1:02pm
Quoting strat
GBPUSD H1 PASR Trend Trading {quote} Good job Yomi. Have you noticed how PASR and the Strat Shadow sets up in the direction of the big moves? What's next - H4?
Yes, the great One, that's the EDGE for trading this wonderful system.

I like to stay with H1 for now due to the availability of my time, maybe I may try H4 some other time in future.

Thanks for your guidance here,
Yomi.
Time always comes before price
  • #6,682
  • Sep 7, 2018 1:33pm Sep 7, 2018 1:33pm
Quoting strat
PASR {quote} Not a very profitable week for me Sorry to hear this, Svolacius. Do you know the reasons why or do you want to share so that we can help and maybe benefit others?
I think I know the reasons, as I've noticed that I get the same behavior pattern time and time again and only by focusing on breaking that pattern and sustaining a new behavior I can overcome it. I wouldn't call it over-trading as I do not act on just any PA setup but I seem to be taking 1:1 R:R trades and not picking the best setups available but rather taking most of the favorable setups that PA offers. The exceptionally good setups bring great R:R, great profit but then those mediocre setups some go to profit, some to loss and at the end of the week/month I get much less profit that I could have gotten if those bad trades were not taken at all.

Then I wonder why do I take those low-reward trades? One reason, I think, could be that I do not want to jump into a trade too late, as I noticed that from some of the other members posting here. Maybe that's my risk aversion kicking in, but seems that I only take the last bite of the swing.

I'll post some examples of those losing trades tomorrow.
  • #6,683
  • Sep 7, 2018 2:03pm Sep 7, 2018 2:03pm
CLASSIC PASR HAMMER

I have explained this many times, but here it is again. This is from EURGBP M5 today

For the highest probability Hammer trades we need:

Hammer at support

Hammer at the bottom of the Swing

NOTHING to the left of the Hammer - just empty space.

Trading this on M5 just now would have given PASR traders 20+ pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: a.PNG Size: 46 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,684
  • Sep 7, 2018 2:33pm Sep 7, 2018 2:33pm
Quoting strat
CLASSIC PASR HAMMER I have explained this many times, but here it is again. This is from EURGBP M5 today For the highest probability Hammer trades we need: Hammer at support Hammer at the bottom of the Swing NOTHING to the left of the Hammer - just empty space. Trading this on M5 just now would have given PASR traders 20+ pips. {image}
Thank you for your lessons again, such a nice setups and another material for weekend studies, congratz for all green pips this week
MH
  • #6,685
  • Edited 1:09pm Sep 8, 2018 12:56pm | Edited 1:09pm
Quoting Svolacius
{quote} I think I know the reasons, as I've noticed that I get the same behavior pattern time and time again and only by focusing on breaking that pattern and sustaining a new behavior I can overcome it. I wouldn't call it over-trading as I do not act on just any PA setup but I seem to be taking 1:1 R:R trades and not picking the best setups available but rather taking most of the favorable setups that PA offers. The exceptionally good setups bring great R:R, great profit but then those mediocre setups some go to profit, some to loss and at the...
Do you think you might be trading corrective waves? Post 3016 is a good one.

I did a lot of that without knowing. It wasn’t until I spent hours and hours charting levels that I began to twig on despite reading Strat’s posts about them. Is it a Worker, Boss, or Big Boss corrective wave you might be in? I look at trades and zoom out to look at the PASR, quite often I then realise what a plonker I am.
Private Msgs are turned off to weirdos, loafs and brain drainers
  • #6,686
  • Sep 8, 2018 2:21pm Sep 8, 2018 2:21pm
Quoting BeyondTheSea
{quote} Do you think you might be trading corrective waves? Post 3016 is a good one. I did a lot of that without knowing. It wasn’t until I spent hours and hours charting levels that I began to twig on despite reading Strat’s posts about them. Is it a Worker, Boss, or Big Boss corrective wave you might be in? I look at trades and zoom out to look at the PASR, quite often I then realise what a plonker I am.
Hm, I believe that it really could be one of the reasons as I sometimes feel that I don't know what the price is doing and what wave it is in. Usually I try to stay away from such charts and do not trade them, but that is an interesting point, I should really check that out with the trades that I took that were losers. Thank you, BTS.
  • #6,687
  • Sep 8, 2018 6:14pm Sep 8, 2018 6:14pm
Trading Plan

Attached Image


Last week I mentioned that the Trading plan is finished.

I should also say it is a constant work in progress. Just this week will find two more additions to it on some very specific details about trading.

I also thought I would share some things about putting one together if there is any interest here in me doing so.

So here are some trading plan thoughts.

Most trading plans are boring to page through. And most get written and filed away in some drawer or some remote corner of your computer never to be looked at again. If this is the case what's the point in writing one. So make it something you want to look at. I have pictures, poems, quotes and charts in mine that inspire me. Why not? It's your plan, it can be constructed any way you want it to be.

Also A title page is nice...if you want. Here is mine if you want an example.

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Title Page (1).pdf   57 KB | 606 downloads



A lot of business's have a mission statement. You can too.

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Mission Statement.pdf   278 KB | 685 downloads



Something to start with. If there seems to be some interest in help getting one put together I will continue with things.

Have a great weekend all.

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #6,688
  • Sep 8, 2018 10:26pm Sep 8, 2018 10:26pm
There's a couple of potential trades that caught my eye. I don't see GBP/USD as A+, didn't close below the 20EMA.

I will set a pending order on EUR/USD when markets open monday my time, as it's my pick of the trades I saw. Also noticed I missed a couple of nice setups during the week.

Also interesting in seeing what happens with GBP/CAD. Last three worker candles are wicks to the upside on my feed.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily.png Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCADDaily.png Size: 38 KB
  • #6,689
  • Edited 2:05am Sep 9, 2018 1:53am | Edited 2:05am
Quoting Rub
There's a couple of potential trades that caught my eye. I don't see GBP/USD as A+, didn't close below the 20EMA. I will set a pending order on EUR/USD when markets open monday my time, as it's my pick of the trades I saw. Also noticed I missed a couple of nice setups during the week. Also interesting in seeing what happens with GBP/CAD. Last three worker candles are wicks to the upside on my feed. {image} {image} {image}
Hello Rub,

I also noticed these setups of EUR and GBP against USD but I would definitely not go against the Big Boss. We might see another move south until Big Boys will reach another good price at which they might continue to open long positions. Then we would see what we always tend to notice - Big Boss will control the lower timeframes and they will turn in the direction of Big Boss. Maybe that's just my risk aversion, but I would stay away from shorting EUR/USD and GBP/USD for now.

Also, I check the Dollar Index to see how the dollar is doing in general against the basket of currencies and last month gave us a nice shooting star, which only tells me what MIGHT soon happen..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDMonthly.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDMonthly.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: DXY_U8Monthly.png Size: 16 KB
  • #6,690
  • Sep 9, 2018 4:38am Sep 9, 2018 4:38am
After last week Strat suggested me to change the time frame I trade.
This week I tried to focus on H4 Day Month chart, and I feel quite suit my life.
Now I only trade on the support or resistance that I have confidence on it.
Although I can only find 1 trade with small profit in this week, I am happy that my prediction is correct (maybe).

EURUSD H4 100pips
sell on resistance with 2 position, although a candle later.
1st position take profit at the first support, with 50pips profit.
And 2nd position close with 50pips, after the price reacted with the second support.
I believe I should close early at the yellow arrow.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 73 KB
  • #6,691
  • Edited 8:04am Sep 9, 2018 5:53am | Edited 8:04am
Quoting Svolacius
{quote} Hello Rub, I also noticed these setups of EUR and GBP against USD but I would definitely not go against the Big Boss. We might see another move south until Big Boys will reach another good price at which they might continue to open long positions. Then we would see what we always tend to notice - Big Boss will control the lower timeframes and they will turn in the direction of Big Boss. Maybe that's just my risk aversion, but I would stay away from shorting EUR/USD and GBP/USD for now. Also, I check the Dollar Index to see how the dollar...
Hi Rub

I would agree with Svolacius.

I'm looking to hop onto EURUSD but as a buyer, it's not ready yet. Short term I think potentially there could be a 1:1RR Short but it's too risky for me on worker. I would maybe trade it on shorter timeframes if I was around but if I'm honest there are better pairs to do this to.

I look at this chart and I ask myself - If I needed to buy 100 million euros, how and when would I be placing my orders? I'd probably be starting towards the end of next week. Would I sell 100 million right now? No, I don't think so but price needs to go lower before I buy. I might have to sell a bit to get there...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDMonthly.png Size: 71 KB
Private Msgs are turned off to weirdos, loafs and brain drainers
  • #6,692
  • Edited 10:07am Sep 9, 2018 6:23am | Edited 10:07am
Quoting brian661
After last week Strat suggested me to change the time frame I trade. This week I tried to focus on H4 Day Month chart, and I feel quite suit my life. Now I only trade on the support or resistance that I have confidence on it. Although I can only find 1 trade with small profit in this week, I am happy that my prediction is correct (maybe). EURUSD H4 100pips sell on resistance with 2 position, although a candle later. 1st position take profit at the first support, with 50pips profit. And 2nd position close with 50pips, after the price reacted with...
Hi Brian661

It's not a trade I would have taken personally but as BASIC PASR trade it worked out for you with the LH off the Resistance line however I would have been looking at the potential support at your entry and walked away.

I would have taken that BEEB 6 candles later and still be in the trade now (but that would be great hindsight trading!)...

Your exit is ok BUT you are counting this as a 100 pip trade from the same entry and two exits. Is it? Or is it 50 pips from one entry?
The reason I ask is I bet you brought that half after your 1st exit to breakeven and if price came back to take you out, then it would, from a profit point of view be only a 25 pip trade.

So ask yourself BEFORE you trade again what is your risk to reward? Pips mean nothing, Pounds/Dollars/Euros mean everything!
Make sure you write this in your PLAN because this looks to me like a trade without a plan.

I sometimes quote pips won to encourage people to trade PASR not to show off and I know Strat quotes for the same reason. Winning pips isn't a competition on here so don't let the Pip little-big men get hold of you... leave that to the other losing egotists and make money instead.

Keep at it but if you want to be taken seriously get rid of that other indicator!
Private Msgs are turned off to weirdos, loafs and brain drainers
  • #6,693
  • Sep 9, 2018 8:09am Sep 9, 2018 8:09am
Quoting Rufus
Trading Plan {image} Last week I mentioned that the Trading plan is finished. I should also say it is a constant work in progress. Just this week will find two more additions to it on some very specific details about trading. I also thought I would share some things about putting one together if there is any interest here in me doing so. So here are some trading plan thoughts. Most trading plans are boring to page through. And most get written and filed away in some drawer or some remote corner of your computer never to be looked at again. If this...
Hi Rufus

I really like your approach. I think it is important that your Trading Plan must be something that resonates with you and inspires you. To what purpose would one want to have document that you filled with stuff just because you think it should be there and then gathers dust on a shelf somewhere because you couldn't be bothered to read it again?

Regards
Pete
  • #6,694
  • Sep 9, 2018 11:22am Sep 9, 2018 11:22am
PASR

Quoting Rub
There's a couple of potential trades that caught my eye. I don't see GBP/USD as A+, didn't close below the 20EMA. I will set a pending order on EUR/USD when markets open monday my time, as it's my pick of the trades I saw. Also noticed I missed a couple of nice setups during the week. Also interesting in seeing what happens with GBP/CAD. Last three worker candles are wicks to the upside on my feed. {image} {image} {image}
In addition to the comments from others:

GBPUSD:

PRICE ""looks like"" it is trying to find a bottom across all 3 of our time frames. From an EW point of view, the Boss support at BRN 1.2 is the ice cream man's 61.8% target. What is over riding all this though is the "Brexit" mess so those with big mouths in UK and Europe could make this pair turn on a dime, which it already has done at times.

EURUSD:

I just SEE our time frames in conflict. The Big Boss has a Hammer while the Boss has a Bond Shooting Star. I need resolution by PRICE of this before taking a long term position. Also, don't forget that PRICE is now controlled by the Weekly Control Candle for the 4th week.

GBPCAD:

Some of us are already positioned long and in profit but don't let that influence your decision as the Boss Swing has lots of resistance above it.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,695
  • Sep 9, 2018 11:32am Sep 9, 2018 11:32am
US $ Index

Quoting Svolacius
{quote} Hello Rub, I also noticed these setups of EUR and GBP against USD but I would definitely not go against the Big Boss. We might see another move south until Big Boys will reach another good price at which they might continue to open long positions. Then we would see what we always tend to notice - Big Boss will control the lower timeframes and they will turn in the direction of Big Boss. Maybe that's just my risk aversion, but I would stay away from shorting EUR/USD and GBP/USD for now. Also, I check the Dollar Index to see how the dollar...
Also, I check the Dollar Index to see how the dollar is doing in general against the basket of currencies and last month gave us a nice shooting star, which only tells me what MIGHT soon happen..

Many years ago, I was convinced by a respected fellow trader to watch, analyse and use the US $ Index for my trading. Well I did and it screwed me up. While the logic and rationale of US $ strength and weakness against other currencies seems a solid practice, I found, in actual trading, it was not. What it did do though was to reinforce my belief and confidence in PASR.

You might want to check if, like me, this has anything to do with this:

Not a very profitable week for me Sorry to hear this, Svolacius. Do you know the reasons why or do you want to share so that we can help and maybe benefit others?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,696
  • Sep 9, 2018 12:04pm Sep 9, 2018 12:04pm
EURUSD H4

Quoting brian661
After last week Strat suggested me to change the time frame I trade. This week I tried to focus on H4 Day Month chart, and I feel quite suit my life. Now I only trade on the support or resistance that I have confidence on it. Although I can only find 1 trade with small profit in this week, I am happy that my prediction is correct (maybe). EURUSD H4 100pips sell on resistance with 2 position, although a candle later. 1st position take profit at the first support, with 50pips profit. And 2nd position close with 50pips, after the price reacted with...
In addition to the valuable comments from BTS:

Good job, Brian but continue to trade other time frames until you find the one that fits you, your RISK, personality and circumstances. You will ""know"" when you find it.

This week I tried to focus on H4 Day Month chart

If your trading chart is H4, then the next higher time frame "Boss" is the Daily and the "Big Boss" being the Weekly so make sure you get this right next time. Maybe you need to re-fresh on my Power of Time Frames?

While you did good in making a profit, you exited mid-way through the Worker (Daily) down Swing. Next time, SEE if you can trade the Worker (Daily) Swing on H4 which will produce more profit.

I'm not good at H4 as I have no interest whatsoever in checking my charts every 4 hours since it interferes with my FREE lifestyle. I would much rather wait to spend a few minutes on my charts at the end of each trading day.

In addition to BTS, I believe darko trades H4. samsonwebdes also trades H4 but it seems he has deserted us for richer climes.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #6,697
  • Sep 9, 2018 12:24pm Sep 9, 2018 12:24pm
Quoting strat
US $ Index {quote} Also, I check the Dollar Index to see how the dollar is doing in general against the basket of currencies and last month gave us a nice shooting star, which only tells me what MIGHT soon happen.. Many years ago, I was convinced by a respected fellow trader to watch, analyse and use the US $ Index for my trading. Well I did and it screwed me up. While the logic and rationale of US $ strength and weakness against other currencies seems a solid practice, I found, in actual trading, it was not. What it did do though was to reinforce...

  1. (EUR), 57.6% weight
  2. (JPY) 13.6% weight
  3. (GBP), 11.9% weight
  4. (CAD), 9.1% weight
  5. (SEK), 4.2% weight
  6. (CHF) 3.6% weight

I quit it as well. The EUR so heavily weighted in the index, I don't see the point.

Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #6,698
  • Sep 10, 2018 2:59am Sep 10, 2018 2:59am
Quoting Svolacius
{quote} Hello Rub, I also noticed these setups of EUR and GBP against USD but I would definitely not go against the Big Boss. We might see another move south until Big Boys will reach another good price at which they might continue to open long positions. Then we would see what we always tend to notice - Big Boss will control the lower timeframes and they will turn in the direction of Big Boss. Maybe that's just my risk aversion, but I would stay away from shorting EUR/USD and GBP/USD for now. Also, I check the Dollar Index to see how the dollar...
Gah!

I even have it in my notes that the big boss has a hammer and I shouldn't short.
Quoting strat
PASR {quote} In addition to the comments from others: GBPUSD: PRICE ""looks like"" it is trying to find a bottom across all 3 of our time frames. From an EW point of view, the Boss support at BRN 1.2 is the ice cream man's 61.8% target. What is over riding all this though is the "Brexit" mess so those with big mouths in UK and Europe could make this pair turn on a dime, which it already has done at times. EURUSD: I just SEE our time frames in conflict. The Big Boss has a Hammer while the Boss has a Bond Shooting Star. I need resolution by PRICE...


Thanks strat. I have a long running in GBP/AUD, with a break even stop, but clearly I need to pay better attention to my own work too.
  • #6,699
  • Sep 10, 2018 3:39am Sep 10, 2018 3:39am
Quoting strat
US $ Index {quote} Also, I check the Dollar Index to see how the dollar is doing in general against the basket of currencies and last month gave us a nice shooting star, which only tells me what MIGHT soon happen.. Many years ago, I was convinced by a respected fellow trader to watch, analyse and use the US $ Index for my trading. Well I did and it screwed me up. While the logic and rationale of US $ strength and weakness against other currencies seems a solid practice, I found, in actual trading, it was not. What it did do though was to reinforce...
Thank you for your reply, Strat.
I don't think it is directly correlated to my trading performance, as I never take trading ideas or opportunities from Dollar Index chart. BUT, it could be setting a BIAS to my views on the dollar.
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