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Weekly Pivot trading with TDI

  • #2,981
  • Sep 7, 2018 4:27am Sep 7, 2018 4:27am
Updates my current/hold trades.

Manual closed my short trade for EURUSD lost at 30 pips each 4 positions = 120 pips.

EURJPY hit my TP for 100 pips each for 4 positions = 400 pips.

Again left with NZDJPY have not hit my target at 72.500. Almost hit just now but been secured it each at 40 pips.

EURAUD hit my sl at 40 pips for 4 positions = 160 pips.


Have a good weekend guys.
  • #2,982
  • Edited 4:53am Sep 7, 2018 4:34am | Edited 4:53am
Quoting Neil0163
Also long on EU guys be sure to check out the dollar index too for usd pairs it can give you a great insight
Hi Neil,

I've looked at the USDX before but was unsure how to add it to my decision making. Eg if USDX goes up certain USD pairs go down or something like that, it wasn't always a direct correlation if I remember corectly. EDIT checking H4 it seems there is a bit more correlation then I originally thought?

How do you use the USDX to factor into your decisions? If the news is weak for USD economy, and the USDX gets weaker, does that strengthen a future decision[or trade that's already open] to sell USDCAD[base USD pairs] or buy AUDUSD [USD quote pairs] at pivot points with price action?
  • #2,983
  • Edited 5:02am Sep 7, 2018 4:43am | Edited 5:02am
My trades for this week. Closed all of it. NFP can do what it wants I am not involved

The blue rectangles are the structure to help confirm the trades and minimize DD.

I mentioned earlier this week that EU and GBP seemed very bullish to me. EURGBP looked like it was making a turn as well and surprise GBP news drove price further in my direction very quickly but it could have easily gone the other way so be careful with gbp pairs this month.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,984
  • Sep 7, 2018 4:55am Sep 7, 2018 4:55am
Quoting sharingan9
My trades for this week. Closed all of it. NFP can do what it wants I am not involved The blue rectangles are the structure to help confirm the trades and minimize DD. I mentioned earlier this week that EU and GBP seemed very bullish to me. EURGBP looked like it was making a turn as well but surprise GBP news drove price further in my direction very quickly but it could have easily gone the other way so be careful with gbp pairs this month. {image} {image} {image}

Happy weekend.
Next week will be a better week for everyone. Too many noise happening this week especially GBP, EUR and AUD.
  • #2,985
  • Sep 7, 2018 4:56am Sep 7, 2018 4:56am
Close long eu(75p) nu(20p) AU(-40p)


Still have UC(sl=be+20p)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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1 see confirmation till the end 2. set SL and never cancel it
  • #2,986
  • Sep 7, 2018 4:58am Sep 7, 2018 4:58am
Quoting KORTrader
Close long eu(75p) nu(20p) AU(-40p) Still have UC(sl=be+20p) {image} {image}
still a winner.
  • #2,987
  • Sep 7, 2018 5:17am Sep 7, 2018 5:17am
Quoting RonFXLive
{quote} Happy weekend. Next week will be a better week for everyone. Too many noise happening this week especially GBP, EUR and AUD.
Happy weekend to you too and nice profits this week bro. GBP is acting a bit crazy now haha. It reminds me of October 2016 flash crash where gbp dropped 800 pips in 2 minutes hahaha. that was a crazy month. Be careful with gbp guys. I know many here do not like using hard stops and use small positions however when you have 10 to 15 small positions that all adds up to a big position and a 700 pip swing in two minutes against you can do some damage. Protect your trades.
  • #2,988
  • Sep 7, 2018 5:21am Sep 7, 2018 5:21am
Quoting Onlinepips
{quote} Hi Neil, I've looked at the USDX before but was unsure how to add it to my decision making. Eg if USDX goes up certain USD pairs go down or something like that, it wasn't always a direct correlation if I remember corectly. EDIT checking H4 it seems there is a bit more correlation then I originally thought? How do you use the USDX to factor into your decisions? If the news is weak for USD economy, and the USDX gets weaker, does that strengthen a future decision[or trade that's already open] to sell USDCAD[base USD pairs] or buy AUDUSD [USD...
Indeed just like that buddy if you do your structure analysis and you see that the USD index is falling the USD in our pairs should be getting weaker, I use it to give me a better bias.
For example without pivots etc if I look at the USD index now for me its bearish and is currently pulling back to test resistance, so my bias should be to be looking to be long on the EU at the minute as you know I am. that's how I use it, if the USD index is bullish my bias should be to short pairs against the USD, we then throw pivots in for entry. So for example if the dollar index is bearish and the EU is in a S61- S100 zone this is a strong opportunity to buy all we do then is watch PA then confirm the move with TDI.
The index give you a better bias on what you should be looking to do with your pairs. Sometime the dollar index can be of neutral bias or in no mans land, if that's the case we trade our pairs on there own basis.
Hope this helps
  • #2,989
  • Sep 7, 2018 5:22am Sep 7, 2018 5:22am
Quoting sharingan9
{quote} Happy weekend to you too and nice profits this week bro. GBP is acting a bit crazy now haha. It reminds me of October 2016 flash crash where gbp dropped 800 pips in 2 minutes hahaha. that was a crazy month. Be careful with gbp guys. I know many here do not like using hard stops and use small positions however when you have 10 to 15 small positions that all adds up to a big position and a 700 pip swing in two minutes against you can do some damage. Protect your trades.
Well said bro.

Later I will explain to many traders why I’m using hard stop. I have my reasons way before I traded Davit’s system as a price action trader.

I know lots of traders been asking me about this.
I will cover in the next post.
  • #2,990
  • Sep 7, 2018 5:24am Sep 7, 2018 5:24am
Quoting Neil0163
{quote} Indeed just like that buddy if you do your structure analysis and you see that the USD index is falling the USD in our pairs should be getting weaker, I use it to give me a better bias. For example without pivots etc if I look at the USD index now for me its bearish and is currently pulling back to test resistance, so my bias should be to be looking to be long on the EU at the minute as you know I am. that's how I use it, if the USD index is bullish my bias should be to short pairs against the USD, we then throw pivots in for entry. So for...
Nice bud.
DXY is important.
  • #2,991
  • Sep 7, 2018 5:48am Sep 7, 2018 5:48am
Hi guys,

My money management method is I trade with risk ratio. Meaning if my hard stop is at 40 pips. My TP will always be 100 to 150 pips due to risk reward ratio. 1:2 or 3.

For example - I short EURUSD and long GBPUSD.
I lost on EURUSD at 40 pips each = 160 pips. 4 positions.
I won on GBPUSD at 100 - 150 pips. 400 pips - 4 positions. I am still on the winning side of 240 pips but I must make sure that it will go to my target price.

This is just my style of trading risk management.


Hope you guys can understand.

Thanks.
Ron.
  • #2,992
  • Sep 7, 2018 5:54am Sep 7, 2018 5:54am
seems like GU goes to R61

less than 2 hours to NFP
  • #2,993
  • Sep 7, 2018 6:00am Sep 7, 2018 6:00am
For once I succeeded in having profit with a CHF pair.

Jokes aside, I entered this trade because in this last week between indiscretions, half-truths and sudden statements, the mood around the Brexit issue has improved and actual levels + PA were a good setup. Then of course, Barnier did half the job.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #2,994
  • Sep 7, 2018 6:01am Sep 7, 2018 6:01am
Quoting RonFXLive
Hi guys, My money management method is I trade with risk ratio. Meaning if my hard stop is at 40 pips. My TP will always be 100 to 150 pips due to risk reward ratio. 1:2 or 3. For example - I short EURUSD and long GBPUSD. I lost on EURUSD at 40 pips each = 160 pips. 4 positions. I won on GBPUSD at 100 - 150 pips. 400 pips - 4 positions. I am still on the winning side of 240 pips but I must make sure that it will go to my target price. This is just my style of trading risk management. Hope you guys can understand. Thanks. Ron.
Thanks, Ron. Usefull
  • #2,995
  • Sep 7, 2018 6:32am Sep 7, 2018 6:32am
Quoting RonFXLive
Only for those who are still holding on to USDCAD short trade. Stoploss put at price 1.3220 is the safest.
Thanks, was thinking about what to do...close all even. Have put a SL in. Have a good weekend. Im done for the week too.
  • #2,996
  • Sep 7, 2018 6:34am Sep 7, 2018 6:34am
Quoting Emerald2112
{quote} Thanks, was thinking about what to do...close all even. Have put a SL in. Have a good weekend. Im done for the week too.
Good to hear that Emerald2112.

At least you’re stress free from trade. It doesn’t matter whether it hit your sl or be. We can always find new opportunities to trade.

Happy weekend to you.
  • #2,997
  • Sep 7, 2018 6:35am Sep 7, 2018 6:35am
Quoting antisystem
{quote} Thanks, Ron. Usefull
Try applying it bud.
  • #2,998
  • Sep 7, 2018 6:36am Sep 7, 2018 6:36am
Quoting Neil0163
{quote} Indeed just like that buddy if you do your structure analysis and you see that the USD index is falling the USD in our pairs should be getting weaker, I use it to give me a better bias. For example without pivots etc if I look at the USD index now for me its bearish and is currently pulling back to test resistance, so my bias should be to be looking to be long on the EU at the minute as you know I am. that's how I use it, if the USD index is bullish my bias should be to short pairs against the USD, we then throw pivots in for entry. So for...
The one thing i consider with the Dollar index - is the weighting of each of the currencies in the basket. It is over 50% weighting on EURUSD so generally any euro news will impact it. But remember as with all correlations when they break they can break violently - build it into your system but be aware.

Weightings as follows :

It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value relative to following select currencies:

  1. Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
  2. Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight
  3. Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
  4. Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
  5. Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight
  6. Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight

  • #2,999
  • Sep 7, 2018 6:46am Sep 7, 2018 6:46am
Quoting matt27
seems like GU goes to R61 less than 2 hours to NFP
Yes GU like most gbp pairs seem bullish to me based on the middle Pivot points even since last week which is why I did not short GU last week. Those that did short GU last week had good enough price action skills to see GU would drop. I do not have these price action skills haha so I have to be extra careful and avoid shorting against bullish trends. I like to wait for the sellers to exhaust themselves with nice 3 PP drops then trade long off of pivots when bears are tired and bulls take control(first 2 PP moving higher) as shown in the picture below.

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  • #3,000
  • Sep 7, 2018 7:03am Sep 7, 2018 7:03am
However I missed optimal EC short chance( blue color ellipse), now I short EC.(making LL)

TP about WPP 1515
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1 see confirmation till the end 2. set SL and never cancel it
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