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How to find your edge and profit from it

  • #21
  • Sep 4, 2018 9:53am Sep 4, 2018 9:53am
Quoting KeenPips
If you believe you have an edge but it doesn't give you a competitive advantage in the Forex trading market, then you don't really have an edge imho. I am very clear about my edge but it is personal and not for public consumption. KP

The forex market has negative edge , I rarely trade it .I let the false prophets sing about forex edges on charts. A forex chart is only a map to the fake forex gold, so a chart can not have an edge.
  • #22
  • Sep 5, 2018 4:27am Sep 5, 2018 4:27am
Quoting loozers
{quote} The forex market has negative edge , I rarely trade it .I let the false prophets sing about forex edges on charts. A forex chart is only a map to the fake forex gold, so a chart can not have an edge.
Talkin about an edge in forex, recently I've come up with the following sequence of trades - see the attached file. It is the P/L in pips for every trade for 10 weeks testing. I wonder how many of you traders would bother trading this small edge. Personally I have reasons to believe (9 years of experience) that as long EURUSD is actively traded around the globe, this will more or less stay the same. May aim was creating fully mechanical strategy, simple to follow and execute manually (I'm not a programmer). Did not optimize and won't, to avoid curvefitting. Is this a meaningful edge?
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Edge.xlsx   9 KB | 328 downloads
I don't trade anymore. I just gratefully accept what Market has to offer
Akhaldanos FX1 Return This Month: na
  • #23
  • Sep 14, 2018 7:09am Sep 14, 2018 7:09am
Oh somebody who joined in 2018 disagrees with me.. LOL
Like i'm really gonna read that post!

I know my edge.. I win almost every day.
I just give a little advice... Take it or Leave it..

Attached Image
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #24
  • Sep 14, 2018 7:34am Sep 14, 2018 7:34am
Quoting Akhaldanos
{quote} Talkin about an edge in forex, recently I've come up with the following sequence of trades - see the attached file. It is the P/L in pips for every trade for 10 weeks testing. I wonder how many of you traders would bother trading this small edge. Personally I have reasons to believe (9 years of experience) that as long EURUSD is actively traded around the globe, this will more or less stay the same. May aim was creating fully mechanical strategy, simple to follow and execute manually (I'm not a programmer). Did not optimize and won't, to...

That is not an edge , you missed a lot of attention biases in back testing.Most back testing is useless.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attentional_bias

Inserted Video
  • #25
  • Sep 14, 2018 7:47am Sep 14, 2018 7:47am
How to find your edge and profit from it
it is just like make a waepon from you waekness. Nice moral input.
Profit growth tells you the trader ability.
  • #26
  • Sep 14, 2018 7:48am Sep 14, 2018 7:48am
Quoting bloodpoodle
Oh somebody who joined in 2018 disagrees with me.. LOL Like i'm really gonna read that post! I know my edge.. I win almost every day. I just give a little advice... Take it or Leave it.. {image}
someone who joined in 2018 has no right to disagree with you? Did he say you do not know your edge or did he ask for a proof if you win everyday?
come to your senses, breath and let it go.
As Above, So Below
  • #27
  • Edited 8:33am Sep 14, 2018 8:21am | Edited 8:33am
Ignoring people extremely new is wise. I"d suggest everybody make it a rule to ignore people who join in 2018.
Here is my logic.. behind my thinking...
Probability is that they are too new to forex to be any good and ad little value. Forex is about probability. Nothing is 100% sure..
I just go with the best odds. I suggest everybody put the odds in their favor.
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #28
  • Sep 14, 2018 1:48pm Sep 14, 2018 1:48pm
wokaaayyyyy
we don't predict, we only ride
  • #29
  • Sep 18, 2018 3:31am Sep 18, 2018 3:31am
Quoting bloodpoodle
Ignoring people extremely new is wise. I"d suggest everybody make it a rule to ignore people who join in 2018. Here is my logic.. behind my thinking... Probability is that they are too new to forex to be any good and ad little value. Forex is about probability. Nothing is 100% sure.. I just go with the best odds. I suggest everybody put the odds in their favor.
Howdy there .
Please allow me to disagree or maybe suggest that we should NOT ignore new traders for the following reasons ,,,, and PLEASE do not take this as a negative comment ,, Just adding my opinion .
=== We were ALL there someday in the past .
=== We ALL needed to be around experienced traders to learn from them .
=== As new traders we would have done anything to find someone that can guide us a little
Yes maybe we may not take notice of their suggestions if they sound like they dont have experience,, BUT there would be maybe many traders who have just joined a forum ,, but they have many years of experience behind them ,, so being a new member of 2018 does not mean they do now know this business more than any of us .
We all need one another and we complete one another as human race ,,, cause we are ALL ONE in the spirit of the creator .
Cheers
LOVE YOUR GAME WITH A PASSION ,,,,, WORK WITH A VISION ! ! ! ! !
  • #30
  • Sep 18, 2018 3:37am Sep 18, 2018 3:37am
Quoting bloodpoodle
I don't use indicators, pivots, fibs, wave counting, trendiness, channels. I never could find an edge in such things. (not saying other people don't) I can only speak for myself. I just look at price structure, Spikes, grinds (up or down) and sideways flat. (I've spent years studying spikes, grinds, and flat consolidations) I also use support and resistance. But only in times I feel i have an edge do I trade it.. I do not take every support and resistance I see. The time of day has to be right, The price structure has to be right.. When the stars...
I love the way you have summed it up .
I base my trading on no indicators also and with a very high level of consistency .
In regards to the so called support and resistance ( which i do not believe they exist as per the understanding of people of them ) ,,, yes some will not work and there is a reason for that which is very visible on the charts , a careful study amy chart , and possibly the guidance someone who has picked on that point ,, will highlight that point quickly
From my experience ,, PRICE ACTION is the base to it all ,,,
It is the real sun of the market ,,, so why rely on artificial light when u have the real light at hand .
As u also said ,, in my comments i am not saying what anyone else is doing does not work ,,,, just expressing my own findings .
Cheers
LOVE YOUR GAME WITH A PASSION ,,,,, WORK WITH A VISION ! ! ! ! !
  • #31
  • Sep 18, 2018 4:16am Sep 18, 2018 4:16am
In essence, I think an edge can only come from one of two ways:
1) have more winners than losers for equally sized gains and losses; and/or
2) have winners sufficiently bigger than losers for your average win rate.

1) is obvious enough but 2) might need a bit more elaboration: wins 2x size of losers creates an edge for a win rate of better than 1 in 3; if the wins are 3x size of losers the breakeven win rate is 1 in 4; for wins 0.5x size of losers you need a win rate better than 2 in 3; and so on (all ignoring transaction costs which in reality need to be added on for a higher true hurdle).

Your method must incorporate a positive edge from one or both of these sources if it is to be viable. After that, it is mostly a matter of discipline, consistency, solid risk control and emotional stability to let the edge work for you over time. Consistent trading is a marathon, not a sprint, with net profits ground out over a long series of tightly controlled trades, both winners and losers.

Anyone can place a trade and get lucky - the reverse will inevitably come to them in time as well - but that is gambling, not trading.
  • #32
  • Sep 18, 2018 11:33am Sep 18, 2018 11:33am
The original post provides a lot of truly great advice. I would add that you should also tailor your strategy to the amount of time you have available to spend on trading. If you don't have a lot of time for that don't use a strategy that requires you to watch the charts for hours on end.
  • #33
  • Sep 19, 2018 3:52am Sep 19, 2018 3:52am
in the beginning you should spend at much time as possible watching and learning.
Watch the market 8-12 hours a day! look at charts on weekends!

Once you find your edge... you won't need to spend time.

You need to put in the beginning....
If you only put in 1-2 hours a day... its proably gonna take you 15 years to get good.
You need the passion, the will, you need to want this more then anything!

To get good at basketball - pro level... You must spend hours and hours a day practicing for years.
Once your pro, and you have achieved the skill level.. you only need to practice a few times a week, to maintain your skill level.
Same goes for trading! Once you have a system thats profitable.. you can close the charts on the weekends.. and relax a bit.
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #34
  • Last Post: Sep 19, 2018 11:52am Sep 19, 2018 11:52am
A lot of newbies have other occupations when they start trading, so watching the charts for that long every day may not be feasible to them, but I do agree that it's good to spend as long as your schedule allows observing the charts and learning theory.
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